Investor's Corner
Tesla highlights Morgan Stanley’s EV sector strengths by outselling OEM competitors
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) highlights a new Morgan Stanely note that reveals a slowly developing and recovering combustion engine sector, along with growing electric vehicle numbers compared to 2020. The note, headed by analyst Adam Jonas, reflects Tesla’s strengths in a sector that is still growing but becoming more concentrated and competitive nearly every quarter as OEMs fight to dethrone the undisputed champion of the EV sector.
Examining figures out of the traditional dealership model indicates that consumers may be dealing with automotive inflation, which could contribute to low-end sales and inventory figures despite strong demand. Jonas writes that selling days were up one day to 27 total days this year in July, compared to 26 days in 2020. However, inventory is “hovering at record low levels,” with three fewer days of supply than last year. Some OEMs are struggling with even larger deficits, however. Ford is estimated to have 36 days of inventory, down 50% compared to last year’s 72 days of inventory. Stallantis is down to 35 days from 60 days last year.
The root cause of the drop could be attributed to several factors, including the ongoing semiconductor shortage that continues to stump automakers. Basic features like “push-to-start” in ICE cars are being eliminated to conserve semiconductor chips. Additionally, a transition in the preferred powertrain of consumers may also be happening, based on Tesla’s increasing sales data points, which include nominal sales, total market share, EV sector penetration, and basic sales figures.
Morgan Stanley on Autos & Shared Mobility ??
“Tesla nominal sales estimated to have grown +66% y/y”
“Tesla’s 26,200 estimated US sales compares to the rest of the OEM BEV
US sales of 14,379. Tesla appears to be outselling the rest of the OEMs in
BEVs by ~1.8x.”$TSLA pic.twitter.com/FvnqhXxPsx— David Tayar (@davidtayar5) August 4, 2021
Jonas said in the note that total industry sales on a selling day for ICE vehicles were +0.8% year-over-year, while BEV sales were up +98.5% year-over-year.
Tesla continues to be the EV maker with the most impressive sales statistics. In July, Tesla’s estimated 26,200 U.S. sales outshine the 14,379 total BEV sales from OEMs during the month. Outselling the world’s largest automakers by around 1.8x, it is no surprise Tesla continues to help grow the sector altogether, achieving the well-known company goal of “accelerating the world’s transition to sustainable energy.”
July 2021’s BEV penetration was 3.1%, nearly double that of the same month last year at 1.6%. With more competitors and models from other manufacturers in the United States, especially with the Chevy Bolt EV and Ford Mustang Mach-E, Tesla’s market share has decreased from 80% last year to just 65% in 2021, still making up the majority of U.S. EV sales. The increased competition is not unwelcomed, especially as the concentration of the EV sector is continuing to grow at a rate that should have ICE manufacturers slightly concerned.
After reporting the best quarter in company history in production and deliveries in Q2, Tesla extended its streak of profitable quarters to eight straight after beating Wall Street consensus estimates. With the emerging EV sector in the United States, Tesla is at the forefront and outsells competing automakers at a generous rate. The company’s robust July sales figures point toward more domination from Elon Musk’s company, while OEM figures show promise moving forward.
Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
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Investor's Corner
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
Tesla short seller Michael Burry, the subject of the film “The Big Short,” where he was portrayed by Steve Carell, has revealed he has opened a new bet against the stock.
In a new update to his Substack newsletter in a post titled “Trading Post June 30, 2026,” Burry revealed a new set of bets against Tesla, Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials Inc., and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
In regard to Tesla, Burry wrote:
“And finally I shorted Tesla at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level.”
This means Burry likely opened his new short position after the company’s recent rally on Wall Street, which saw Tesla shares sink in mid-May, only to recover to well over the $400 mark. Currently, shares trade at around $427.
The company saw a big Tuesday as shares climbed considerably, over 10 percent. The size of the Tesla short was not provided, nor did Burry give any information on the position’s structure, the number of shares, dollar value, or whether options were used in the short.
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Over the years, Burry has been one of the more vocal critics of Tesla, calling its share price “media inflated,” and saying it was “ridiculously overvalued” as recently as December.
The company has largely transitioned away from being known as an automotive company and instead is much more widely regarded as an AI play, mostly due to its Full Self-Driving efforts, Optimus robot development, and data collection related to both.
This has not pulled those skeptics away from being vocal about their distaste for how Tesla is valued, but there’s no denying that the company is a global force in many things, including sustainable energy, automotive, and AI.
Investor's Corner
SpaceX gets initial stock coverage from Tesla’s biggest bull
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
Elon Musk
Tesla Phone? Not quite, but close: analyst
For years, there have been images and videos across social media platforms that have reminded me of when I was a 15-year-old kid teased by “Xbox 720” videos on YouTube. These videos are of the supposed “Tesla Phone” that Elon Musk was secretly developing in between leading Tesla with its electric cars and SpaceX with its reusable rockets.
Would you buy a Tesla phone ? pic.twitter.com/aaTwvvIJit
— Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (@teslaownersSV) October 6, 2023
Although Musk has put those rumors to bed several times, it was never completely out of the realm that he could get involved in cell phones in some capacity. Think outside the box and more macro-level, though. Instead of reinventing the computer, Musk reinvented connectivity by developing Starlink with SpaceX.
It could be something similar, TD Cowen analyst Gregory Williams said in a note last week, where he hinted SpaceX could be gathering some steam to acquire T-Mobile.
Williams said it would be the “clear choice” for SpaceX if it decided to go through with a network acquisition. He also suggested AT&T.
The move would be possible through selling more of its own stock, which would help SpaceX raise the money to purchase T-Mobile, which would cost roughly $300 billion. It could be one of the moves SpaceX makes post-IPO in terms of an acquisition: it already acquired Cursor AI for $60 billion.
Other analysts, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, believe SpaceX and Tesla will eventually merge into one anyway, and that conglomeration could come as soon as this year, some have said.
The implications of SpaceX purchasing T-Mobile are massive. A combined entity would create a truly ubiquitous network: T-Mobile’s terrestrial 5G towers and Starlink’s growing constellation of Direct-to-Cell satellites. This would essentially eliminate dead zones across the U.S. and potentially globally.
SpaceX would instantly become a full-scale facilities-based carrier with satellite differentiation; a huge advantage. This would pressure AT&T and Verizon heavily.
There are also concerns like a potential reduction in long-term competition, and of course, a deal of that size would face intense scrutiny from government agencies.
The strategic fit is compelling due to the existing Starlink–T-Mobile partnership and complementary technologies (space + terrestrial). It could create a dominant integrated communications player. However, the regulatory, financial, and execution hurdles are enormous — this remains highly speculative with no indication SpaceX is actively pursuing it right now.