Investor's Corner
Tesla’s volunteer-boosted Model 3 delivery weekend is a wake-up call for legacy auto
If social media posts and anecdotes from participating owners are any indication, it appears that Tesla’s volunteer-boosted Model 3 delivery weekend is looking to be a success. As Tesla’s volunteers aid the company in orienting large numbers of new owners with their vehicles, the demand for quality electric cars is becoming more evident than ever.
This weekend saw something remarkable happen in the Tesla community. With the company currently attempting to address Elon Musk’s self-dubbed “delivery logistics hell,” some owners of Tesla’s electric cars stepped forward to offer help. The idea was initially pitched by IGN reporter and Ride the Lightning podcast host Ryan McCaffrey on Twitter, and Elon Musk promptly greenlighted the suggestion, stating that any help would be greatly appreciated. The community mobilized itself immediately, and by Saturday, Tesla’s delivery centers had volunteers who were ready to help new owners with the features and functions of their electric cars. Even Elon Musk himself was in Fremont’s center, interacting with new owners.
Hanging out with @elonmusk while waiting for our new cars @Tesla pic.twitter.com/2UjGyYkD5u
— Bradley Wong (@brawong) September 23, 2018
Reports on social media and in forums such as the r/TeslaMotors subreddit suggest that Tesla’s volunteer-augmented delivery efforts have been largely successful. One such account came from r/TeslaMotors subreddit member and Model 3 owner u/jpbeans, who narrated his experience as a volunteer in one of Tesla’s delivery centers. According to the Model 3 owner, Tesla gave them Guest badges, and they ended up helping owners on several topics, from basics like opening the Model 3’s door handle, to navigating the car’s functions through the 15″ touchscreen.
On Twitter, similar accounts were shared. Twitter user @GuyTesla, who volunteered in Tesla’s Littleton delivery center on Saturday, even noted that a nearby Jaguar dealership inquired how Tesla would be able to store the vehicles being delivered to the site. When informed that the electric cars were not staying in the facility, the staff of the legacy automaker were reportedly a bit shocked.
Hilarious highlight of the day: The Jaguar dealers that had just moved in next-door to Tesla Littleton commented on all of the truck carriers of cars showing up, and asked, “where are you going to put all of these?” And the answer was “They aren’t staying.”
Sad faces…
— 🐍🎷 Tesla Guy 🎷🐍 (@GuyTesla) September 23, 2018
Inasmuch as the Littleton volunteer’s observations are but an anecdote in an otherwise busy delivery weekend, the demand for premium electric vehicles should be undeniable by now. Over the years, Tesla’s electric cars, despite the company’s teething challenges, proved successful in their respective segments. With the Model 3, Tesla has begun an attack into the mainstream auto market, and the electric sedan is starting to make some waves. In August alone, the Model 3 became the 5th best-selling passenger car in the US, being outsold only by the Toyota Camry, Honda Civic, Honda Accord, and the Toyota Corolla Family, all of which are lower-priced vehicles.
Tesla is pretty much unchallenged in the premium electric car market, though highly-anticipated competitors such as the Mercedes-Benz EQC and the Audi e-tron have recently been unveiled. While these vehicles have long been hyped as possible “Tesla-killers” due to their manufacturers having decades of experience in the auto industry, the performance of the vehicles, as well as their battery tech, seemed to be a bit subpar compared to Tesla’s electric cars. This was addressed by Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi recently, when he noted that contrary to a prevalent bear thesis, there is “no actual flood of competition coming” for Tesla’s vehicles.
The recent offerings of premium legacy automakers have caught the attention of Christina Bu, General Secretary of the Electric Vehicle Association in Norway. Norway is among the world’s leaders in the electric car transition, and it is one of the countries where Tesla’s vehicles hold a formidable place. After the reveal of some of Tesla’s competitors from legacy automakers, the EVA General Secretary proved unimpressed, calling on manufacturers to “stop pretending and start delivering” on real electric cars that have compelling performance and features. Bu further noted that the strong demand for affordable, decently-specced vehicles like the Kia Niro Electric and Hyundai KONA Electric, is proof that consumers are ready to embrace EVs.
Tesla is pretty much only halfway through its efforts of ramping the production of the Model 3. This third quarter, Tesla is aiming to produce 50,000-55,000 Model 3 — a record number of vehicles but still only a fraction of its planned 10,000/week production rate for the electric sedan. Tesla eventually plans to build 500,000 Model 3 per year, and its upcoming crossover SUV, the Model Y, is expected to hit a production rate of 1 million units per year. Even when the company achieves these targets, though, the auto industry could not transition into the electric car era on Tesla alone — other manufacturers, particularly those with decades of experience, must embrace the shift as well. As Norway’s General Secretary of the EVA noted, the time is now to “stop pretending and start delivering.”
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Elon Musk and Tesla AI Director share insights after empty driver seat Robotaxi rides
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