Investor's Corner
Tesla’s volunteer-boosted Model 3 delivery weekend is a wake-up call for legacy auto
If social media posts and anecdotes from participating owners are any indication, it appears that Tesla’s volunteer-boosted Model 3 delivery weekend is looking to be a success. As Tesla’s volunteers aid the company in orienting large numbers of new owners with their vehicles, the demand for quality electric cars is becoming more evident than ever.
This weekend saw something remarkable happen in the Tesla community. With the company currently attempting to address Elon Musk’s self-dubbed “delivery logistics hell,” some owners of Tesla’s electric cars stepped forward to offer help. The idea was initially pitched by IGN reporter and Ride the Lightning podcast host Ryan McCaffrey on Twitter, and Elon Musk promptly greenlighted the suggestion, stating that any help would be greatly appreciated. The community mobilized itself immediately, and by Saturday, Tesla’s delivery centers had volunteers who were ready to help new owners with the features and functions of their electric cars. Even Elon Musk himself was in Fremont’s center, interacting with new owners.
Hanging out with @elonmusk while waiting for our new cars @Tesla pic.twitter.com/2UjGyYkD5u
— Bradley Wong (@brawong) September 23, 2018
Reports on social media and in forums such as the r/TeslaMotors subreddit suggest that Tesla’s volunteer-augmented delivery efforts have been largely successful. One such account came from r/TeslaMotors subreddit member and Model 3 owner u/jpbeans, who narrated his experience as a volunteer in one of Tesla’s delivery centers. According to the Model 3 owner, Tesla gave them Guest badges, and they ended up helping owners on several topics, from basics like opening the Model 3’s door handle, to navigating the car’s functions through the 15″ touchscreen.
On Twitter, similar accounts were shared. Twitter user @GuyTesla, who volunteered in Tesla’s Littleton delivery center on Saturday, even noted that a nearby Jaguar dealership inquired how Tesla would be able to store the vehicles being delivered to the site. When informed that the electric cars were not staying in the facility, the staff of the legacy automaker were reportedly a bit shocked.
Hilarious highlight of the day: The Jaguar dealers that had just moved in next-door to Tesla Littleton commented on all of the truck carriers of cars showing up, and asked, “where are you going to put all of these?” And the answer was “They aren’t staying.”
Sad faces…
— 🐍🎷 Tesla Guy 🎷🐍 (@GuyTesla) September 23, 2018
Inasmuch as the Littleton volunteer’s observations are but an anecdote in an otherwise busy delivery weekend, the demand for premium electric vehicles should be undeniable by now. Over the years, Tesla’s electric cars, despite the company’s teething challenges, proved successful in their respective segments. With the Model 3, Tesla has begun an attack into the mainstream auto market, and the electric sedan is starting to make some waves. In August alone, the Model 3 became the 5th best-selling passenger car in the US, being outsold only by the Toyota Camry, Honda Civic, Honda Accord, and the Toyota Corolla Family, all of which are lower-priced vehicles.
Tesla is pretty much unchallenged in the premium electric car market, though highly-anticipated competitors such as the Mercedes-Benz EQC and the Audi e-tron have recently been unveiled. While these vehicles have long been hyped as possible “Tesla-killers” due to their manufacturers having decades of experience in the auto industry, the performance of the vehicles, as well as their battery tech, seemed to be a bit subpar compared to Tesla’s electric cars. This was addressed by Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi recently, when he noted that contrary to a prevalent bear thesis, there is “no actual flood of competition coming” for Tesla’s vehicles.
The recent offerings of premium legacy automakers have caught the attention of Christina Bu, General Secretary of the Electric Vehicle Association in Norway. Norway is among the world’s leaders in the electric car transition, and it is one of the countries where Tesla’s vehicles hold a formidable place. After the reveal of some of Tesla’s competitors from legacy automakers, the EVA General Secretary proved unimpressed, calling on manufacturers to “stop pretending and start delivering” on real electric cars that have compelling performance and features. Bu further noted that the strong demand for affordable, decently-specced vehicles like the Kia Niro Electric and Hyundai KONA Electric, is proof that consumers are ready to embrace EVs.
Tesla is pretty much only halfway through its efforts of ramping the production of the Model 3. This third quarter, Tesla is aiming to produce 50,000-55,000 Model 3 — a record number of vehicles but still only a fraction of its planned 10,000/week production rate for the electric sedan. Tesla eventually plans to build 500,000 Model 3 per year, and its upcoming crossover SUV, the Model Y, is expected to hit a production rate of 1 million units per year. Even when the company achieves these targets, though, the auto industry could not transition into the electric car era on Tesla alone — other manufacturers, particularly those with decades of experience, must embrace the shift as well. As Norway’s General Secretary of the EVA noted, the time is now to “stop pretending and start delivering.”
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
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