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Tesla’s Model 3 delivery challenges in Europe are growing pains for a global ramp
The arrival of the cargo ship Glovis Captain on the port of Zeebrugge earlier this week heralded new opportunities and challenges for electric car maker Tesla. The massive vessel is estimated to be carrying around 3,000 Model 3, which are expected to start an electric disruption in Europe’s passenger car market. At the same time, the arrival of the highly-anticipated sedan also means that deliveries to reservation holders in the region are about to begin.
Delivery Logistics Hell, Part 2
In true Tesla fashion, plans were underway to get the recently-arrived Model 3 to customers as quickly as possible. Thus, instead of taking a while before starting handovers to reservation holders in the region, Tesla immediately went to work. Reports from the Tesla community even indicated that they received messages from the carmaker indicating that they could pick up their Model 3 starting Wednesday at the company’s Tilburg facility, shortly after the cars arrived on Zeebrugge.
Soon, social media posts from the Tesla community revealed that the first Model 3 deliveries in Europe were already underway. That said, it did not take long before Tesla became unable to deliver as many vehicles as they estimated. Some reservation holders even went so far as to state that they were advised to pick up their Model 3 the following day. While an additional day is but a drop in the bucket compared to the nearly three-year wait for the electric sedan experienced by reservation holders, Tesla’s inability to deliver as many vehicles as it expected became a great inconvenience nonetheless.
On Wednesday, Elon Musk took to Twitter to apologize for the delivery delay in Europe. In a tweet, Musk explained that Tesla met some “unexpected challenges” with the vehicles coming through the Belgian port. Nevertheless, Musk noted that Model 3 deliveries should start moving on Thursday.
Sorry, many unexpected challenges with cars coming through Zeebrugge first time. Cars will start moving out in volume tomorrow.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 6, 2019
Logistics Challenges – Not Sweeter the Second Time
Ultimately, this is yet another case of Tesla miscalculating and shooting itself in the foot in the process. In the case of Europe’s first Model 3 deliveries, reservation holders were expecting their vehicles at a later date to begin with (the reservation holder Musk responded to on Twitter, for example, had a delivery date of 02/16/2019). The earlier delivery estimates, and the succeeding failure to meet said estimates, all transpired under Tesla’s own doing.
That said, Tesla’s journey with the Model 3 to date hints at something positive following the company’s logistics challenges in Europe, considering that the electric car maker faced the same issues in the US last September. During that time, Tesla was just hitting its stride with the production of the electric sedan. Tesla was also going for profitability, which required a record number of vehicle deliveries. Tesla’s deliveries became so backlogged that reservation holders saw their handover dates rescheduled multiple times.
Thanks to @LucWaterlot, some pictures of #glovisCaptain arriving full of #tesla #Model3 in #portofzeebrugge pic.twitter.com/rVxWBkWHNU
— FalconU (@UlricDabe) February 5, 2019
Just like Elon Musk’s recent tweet, the Tesla CEO owned up to Tesla’s challenges then, explaining that the company had gone straight from “production hell” to “delivery logistics hell.” Musk also mentioned later that challenges in logistics are easier to solve than production issues. True to the CEO’s word, Tesla delivered a record number of vehicles in the third quarter, with Q3 2018 handovers totaling 83,500 vehicles including 55,840 Model 3. Ultimately, these deliveries helped the company achieve its first definitively profitable quarter in years. These logistics challenges were completely absent in Q4 2018 as well, when Tesla delivered a total of 90,700 vehicles, including 63,150 Model 3.
Lessons Learned and Experiences Gained
With this in mind, it appears that Tesla’s current challenges in delivering the Model 3 to European customers are something that the company can handle. Tesla’s experience in the United States alone should help the electric car maker gain enough footing to conduct handovers in the region in a manner that is smooth, convenient, and well worth the nearly three-year wait for Model 3 reservation holders.
While Tesla appears to have miscalculated its initial European Model 3 deliveries, the company is in a constant effort to improve its logistics. Elon Musk took particular notice of this issue in the recently held Q4 2018 earnings call, when he was discussing the probability of Q1 2019’s profitability.
“We’re going to get cars to China and Europe and make sure that we have good logistics for the whole delivery process, from factory gate to the customer. That’s obviously pretty far from California to get to Europe and China and make it to, again, our two customers. So, we’re working every aspect of that logistics chain. And I think we’ve — I think it’s going to be good. I would say at this point; I’m optimistic about being profitable in Q1. Not by a lot, but I’m optimistic about being profitable in Q1 and for all quarters going forward,” Musk said.
For the meantime, the beast that is the Tesla Model 3 is still waiting for its chance to fully saturate the European market.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026,” Ives wrote.
Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush released a new note on Friday morning just after the company released production and delivery figures for Q4 and the full year of 2025, stating that the numbers, while slightly underwhelming, are “better than feared” and as “a step in the right direction.”
Tesla reported production of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, while 1,654,667 vehicles were produced and 1,636,129 cars were delivered for the full year.
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Interestingly, the company posted its own consensus figures that were compiled from various firms on its website a few days ago, where expectations were set at 1,640,752 cars for the year. Tesla fell about 4,000 units short of that. One of the areas where Tesla excelled was energy deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the year.
🚨 Wedbush’s Dan Ives has released a new note on Tesla $TSLA:
“Tesla announced its FY4Q25 delivery numbers this morning coming in at 418.2k vehicles slightly below the company’s consensus delivery estimate of 422.9k but much better than the whisper numbers of ~410k as the…
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 2, 2026
In terms of vehicle deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla certainly has some things to work through if it wants to return to growth in that aspect, especially with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit in the U.S. and “continuous headwinds” for the company in Europe.
However, Ives also believes that, given the delivery numbers, which were on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned well for a strong 2026, especially with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab development, and energy:
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We look forward to hearing more at the company’s 4Q25 call on January 28th. AI Valuation – The Focus Throughout 2026. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and, in a bull case scenario, $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
It’s no secret that for the past several years, Tesla’s vehicle delivery numbers have been the main focus of investors and analysts have looked at them as an indicator of company health to a certain extent. The problem with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing more on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus project, AI development, and Cybercab.
While vehicle deliveries still hold importance, it is more crucial to note that Tesla’s overall environment as a business relies on much more than just how many cars are purchased. That metric, to a certain extent, is fading in importance in the grand scheme of things, but it will never totally disappear.
Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.
Investor's Corner
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Deliveries stood at 406,585 Model 3/Y and 11,642 other models, for a total of 418,227 vehicles.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has reported its Q4 2025 production and deliveries, with 418,227 vehicles delivered and 434,358 produced worldwide. Energy storage deployments hit a quarterly record at 14.2 GWh.
Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 results were posted on Friday, January 2, 2026.
Q4 2025 production and deliveries
In Q4 2025, Tesla produced 422,652 Model 3/Y units and 11,706 other models, which are comprised of the Model S, Model X, and the Cybertruck, for a total of 434,358 vehicles. Deliveries stood at 406,585 Model 3/Y and 11,642 other models, for a total of 418,227 vehicles.
Energy deployments reached 14.2 GWh, a new record. Similar to other reports, Tesla posted a company thanked customers, employees, suppliers, shareholders, and supporters for its fourth quarter results.
In comparison, analysts included in Tesla’s company-compiled consensus estimate that Tesla would deliver 422,850 vehicles and deploy 13.4 GWh of battery storage systems in Q4 2025.
Tesla’s Full Year 2025 results
For the full year, Tesla produced a total of 1,654,667 vehicles, comprised of 1,600,767 Model Y/3 and 53,900 other models. Tesla also delivered 1,636,129 vehicles in FY 2025, comprised of 1,585,279 Model Y/3 and 50,850 other models. Energy deployments totaled 46.7 GWh over the year.
In comparison, analysts included in Tesla’s company-compiled consensus expected the company to deliver a total of 1,640,752 vehicles for full year 2025. Analysts also expected Tesla’s energy division to deploy a total of 45.9 GWh during the year.
Tesla will post its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 after market close on Wednesday, January 28, 2026. The company’s Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call is expected to be held on the same day at 4:30 p.m. Central Time.
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
