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Tesla upsells Model 3 Performance as Musk ponders ‘mental scar tissue’ from production ramp

Fleet of red Dual Motor Tesla Model 3 Performance captured on July 10, 2018 at the Fremont factory [Credit: RS Metrics via Twitter]

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Tesla is starting to upsell the Model 3 Performance to reservation holders, with CEO Elon Musk announcing more exciting aspects of the vehicle on Twitter. Musk’s recent announcements describe the vehicle’s suspension and brakes, as well as the company’s ongoing test drive program for the compact electric car.

According to Musk, the Model 3 Performance will feature a lower ride height helped by the performance suspension system and stronger brakes than non-Performance variants, which would enhance the vehicles’ track capabilities. The upgrade would further bolster claims that Model 3 Performance will outperform all vehicles in its class on the race track, including the BMW M3.

Equipping larger brakes on the Model 3 Performance is definitely the right decision from Tesla. The car’s stock brakes, after all, are unable to handle hard track driving, as evidenced in a Laguna Seca run by a mostly stock Model 3 earlier this year. With upgraded brakes, the Model 3, even the single motor, non-Performance Long Range RWD version, becomes a formidable vehicle on the racecourse, recently beating Porsche to win a Time Attack challenge in a Canadian racing event.

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Overall, Musk’s recent Twitter statements for the Model 3 Performance comes amidst the company’s latest attempt to upsell the vehicle. Tesla, after all, has been putting some extra attention on the Model 3 Performance, with the electric car maker recently showcasing the car’s drifting capabilities in a skidpad testing video. Elon Musk also noted that the company had produced approximately 100 units of the Model 3 Performance to date, which would be used for test drive units in the company’s showrooms. In a recent Twitter announcement, Musk further encouraged reservation holders to test drive the Model 3 Performance regardless of whether they plan to buy the top trim variant or not.

Tesla’s upselling of the Model 3 Performance comes amidst the company’s push to sustain mass production of its electric car. Since the company achieved its ever-elusive goal of producing 5,000 Model 3 per week during the end of Q2 2018, Tesla has been ramping the deliveries of the vehicle. Recent signs from Tesla also appear to be teasing that the company would be able to sustain a 5,000/week pace this Q3 2018. Among these are frequent mass VIN registrations, a new 5-minute Sign & Drive delivery program, and recent statements related by  Senior Director of Investor Relations Aaron Chew, who reportedly stated in meeting with investors and analysts that the company is targeting a sustained 5,000-6,000/week production pace for the current quarter.

While Tesla appears to have broken through a massive roadblock with the Model 3, Elon Musk’s recent statements to Bloomberg reveal that the manufacturing feat came at a high price. As noted by Musk in a recent interview with the publication, the Model 3 ramp has been incredibly difficult for him and Tesla, to the point where he feels he developed permanent mental scars from the experience.

“It’s been super-hard. Like there is for sure some permanent mental scar tissue here. But I do feel good about the months to come. I think the results will speak for themselves,” Musk said.

Musk, however, noted that the risks Tesla took with the Model 3 ramp, such as betting the entire company on the vehicle’s success, will likely not be replicated in the future. According to Musk, he does not foresee any bet-the-company situations arising, regardless of Tesla’s upcoming projects and vehicles.

“To the best of my judgment, I do not think we have any future bet-the-company situations. We will still need to work hard and be vigilant and not be complacent because it is very difficult just to survive as a car company. But it will not be the same level of strain as getting to volume production of Model 3,” he said.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX IPO is coming, CEO Elon Musk confirms

However, it appears Musk is ready for SpaceX to go public, as Ars Technica Senior Space Editor Eric Berger wrote an op-ed that indicated he thought SpaceX would go public soon. Musk replied, basically confirming it.

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elon musk side profile
Joel Kowsky, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Elon Musk confirmed through a post on X that a SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) is on the way after hinting at it several times earlier this year.

It also comes one day after Bloomberg reported that SpaceX was aiming for a valuation of $1.5 trillion, adding that it wanted to raise $30 billion.

Musk has been transparent for most of the year that he wanted to try to figure out a way to get Tesla shareholders to invest in SpaceX, giving them access to the stock.

He has also recognized the issues of having a public stock, like litigation exposure, quarterly reporting pressures, and other inconveniences.

However, it appears Musk is ready for SpaceX to go public, as Ars Technica Senior Space Editor Eric Berger wrote an op-ed that indicated he thought SpaceX would go public soon.

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Musk replied, basically confirming it:

Berger believes the IPO would help support the need for $30 billion or more in capital needed to fund AI integration projects, such as space-based data centers and lunar satellite factories. Musk confirmed recently that SpaceX “will be doing” data centers in orbit.

AI appears to be a “key part” of SpaceX getting to Musk, Berger also wrote. When writing about whether or not Optimus is a viable project and product for the company, he says that none of that matters. Musk thinks it is, and that’s all that matters.

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It seems like Musk has certainly mulled something this big for a very long time, and the idea of taking SpaceX public is not just likely; it is necessary for the company to get to Mars.

The details of when SpaceX will finally hit that public status are not known. Many of the reports that came out over the past few days indicate it would happen in 2026, so sooner rather than later.

But there are a lot of things on Musk’s plate early next year, especially with Cybercab production, the potential launch of Unsupervised Full Self-Driving, and the Roadster unveiling, all planned for Q1.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving statistic impresses Wall Street firm: ‘Very close to unsupervised’

The data shows there was a significant jump in miles traveled between interventions as Tesla transitioned drivers to v14.1 back in October. The FSD Community Tracker saw a jump from 441 miles to over 9,200 miles, the most significant improvement in four years.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Full Self-Driving performance and statistics continue to impress everyone, from retail investors to Wall Street firms. However, one analyst believes Tesla’s driving suite is “very close” to achieving unsupervised self-driving.

On Tuesday, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter said that Tesla’s recent launch of Full Self-Driving version 14 increased the number of miles traveled between interventions by a drastic margin, based on data compiled by a Full Self-Driving Community Tracker.

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The data shows there was a significant jump in miles traveled between interventions as Tesla transitioned drivers to v14.1 back in October. The FSD Community Tracker saw a jump from 441 miles to over 9,200 miles, the most significant improvement in four years.

Interestingly, there was a slight dip in the miles traveled between interventions with the release of v14.2. Piper Sandler said investor interest in FSD has increased.

Full Self-Driving has displayed several improvements with v14, including the introduction of Arrival Options that allow specific parking situations to be chosen by the driver prior to arriving at the destination. Owners can choose from Street Parking, Parking Garages, Parking Lots, Chargers, and Driveways.

Additionally, the overall improvements in performance from v13 have been evident through smoother operation, fewer mistakes during routine operation, and a more refined decision-making process.

Early versions of v14 exhibited stuttering and brake stabbing, but Tesla did a great job of confronting the issue and eliminating it altogether with the release of v14.2.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk also recently stated that the current v14.2 FSD suite is also less restrictive with drivers looking at their phones, which has caused some controversy within the community.

Although we tested it and found there were fewer nudges by the driver monitoring system to push eyes back to the road, we still would not recommend it due to laws and regulations.

Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2.1 texting and driving: we tested it

With that being said, FSD is improving significantly with each larger rollout, and Musk believes the final piece of the puzzle will be unveiled with FSD v14.3, which could come later this year or early in 2026.

Piper Sandler reaffirmed its $500 price target on Tesla shares, as well as its ‘Overweight’ rating.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets price target boost, but it’s not all sunshine and rainbows

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Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East/X

Tesla received a price target boost from Morgan Stanley, according to a new note on Monday morning, but there is some considerable caution also being communicated over the next year or so.

Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco took over Tesla coverage for the firm from longtime bull Adam Jonas, who appears to be focusing on embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.

Percoco took over and immediately adjusted the price target for Tesla from $410 to $425, and changed its rating on shares from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’

Percoco said he believes Tesla is the leading company in terms of electric vehicles, manufacturing, renewable energy, and real-world AI, so it deserves a premium valuation. However, he admits the high expectations for the company could provide for a “choppy trading environment” for the next year.

He wrote:

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“However, high expectations on the latter have brought the stock closer to fair valuation. While it is well understood that Tesla is more than an auto manufacturer, we expect a choppy trading environment for the TSLA shares over the next 12 months, as we see downside to estimates, while the catalysts for its non-auto businesses appear priced at current levels.”

Percoco also added that if market cap hurdles are achieved, Morgan Stanley would reduce its price target by 7 percent.

Perhaps the biggest change with Percoco taking over the analysis for Jonas is how he will determine the value of each individual project. For example, he believes Optimus is worth about $60 per share of equity value.

He went on to describe the potential value of Full Self-Driving, highlighting its importance to the Tesla valuation:

“Full Self Driving (FSD) is the crown jewel of Tesla’s auto business; we believe that its leading-edge personal autonomous driving offering is a real game changer, and will remain a significant competitive advantage over its EV and non-EV peers. As Tesla continues to improve its platform with increased levels of autonomy (i.e., hands-off, eyes-off), it will revolutionize the personal driving experience. It remains to be seen if others will be able to keep pace.”

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Additionally, Percoco outlined both bear and bull cases for the stock. He believes $860 per share, “which could be in play in the next 12 months if Tesla manages through the EV-downturn,” while also scaling Robotaxi, executing on unsupervised FSD, and scaling Optimus, is in play for the bull case.

Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might

Meanwhile, the bear case is placed at $145 per share, and “assumes greater competition and margin pressure across all business lines, embedding zero value for humanoids, slowing the growth curve for Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to reflect regulatory challenges in scaling a vision-only perception stack, and lowering market share and margin profile for the autos and energy businesses.”

Currently, Tesla shares are trading at around $441.

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