Investor's Corner
Tesla upsells Model 3 Performance as Musk ponders ‘mental scar tissue’ from production ramp
Tesla is starting to upsell the Model 3 Performance to reservation holders, with CEO Elon Musk announcing more exciting aspects of the vehicle on Twitter. Musk’s recent announcements describe the vehicle’s suspension and brakes, as well as the company’s ongoing test drive program for the compact electric car.
According to Musk, the Model 3 Performance will feature a lower ride height helped by the performance suspension system and stronger brakes than non-Performance variants, which would enhance the vehicles’ track capabilities. The upgrade would further bolster claims that Model 3 Performance will outperform all vehicles in its class on the race track, including the BMW M3.
Performance version suspension is 1cm lower & has stronger brakes in upgrade package
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 13, 2018
Equipping larger brakes on the Model 3 Performance is definitely the right decision from Tesla. The car’s stock brakes, after all, are unable to handle hard track driving, as evidenced in a Laguna Seca run by a mostly stock Model 3 earlier this year. With upgraded brakes, the Model 3, even the single motor, non-Performance Long Range RWD version, becomes a formidable vehicle on the racecourse, recently beating Porsche to win a Time Attack challenge in a Canadian racing event.
Overall, Musk’s recent Twitter statements for the Model 3 Performance comes amidst the company’s latest attempt to upsell the vehicle. Tesla, after all, has been putting some extra attention on the Model 3 Performance, with the electric car maker recently showcasing the car’s drifting capabilities in a skidpad testing video. Elon Musk also noted that the company had produced approximately 100 units of the Model 3 Performance to date, which would be used for test drive units in the company’s showrooms. In a recent Twitter announcement, Musk further encouraged reservation holders to test drive the Model 3 Performance regardless of whether they plan to buy the top trim variant or not.
These sure look like the ~100 performance #Model3 that $TSLA says were built for test drives. Question is when will they move off the lot into stores? Or have they already and these are leftovers? Images are from July 10th. https://t.co/PRuKZUvBtf #Tesla pic.twitter.com/SpU3ivTIA7
— RS Metrics (@RSMetrics) July 12, 2018
Tesla’s upselling of the Model 3 Performance comes amidst the company’s push to sustain mass production of its electric car. Since the company achieved its ever-elusive goal of producing 5,000 Model 3 per week during the end of Q2 2018, Tesla has been ramping the deliveries of the vehicle. Recent signs from Tesla also appear to be teasing that the company would be able to sustain a 5,000/week pace this Q3 2018. Among these are frequent mass VIN registrations, a new 5-minute Sign & Drive delivery program, and recent statements related by Senior Director of Investor Relations Aaron Chew, who reportedly stated in meeting with investors and analysts that the company is targeting a sustained 5,000-6,000/week production pace for the current quarter.
Whether you plan to buy a Dual Motor Performance Model 3 or not, take it for a test drive anyway. It’s like having pure fun jacked straight into your brain whenever you want.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 13, 2018
While Tesla appears to have broken through a massive roadblock with the Model 3, Elon Musk’s recent statements to Bloomberg reveal that the manufacturing feat came at a high price. As noted by Musk in a recent interview with the publication, the Model 3 ramp has been incredibly difficult for him and Tesla, to the point where he feels he developed permanent mental scars from the experience.
“It’s been super-hard. Like there is for sure some permanent mental scar tissue here. But I do feel good about the months to come. I think the results will speak for themselves,” Musk said.
Musk, however, noted that the risks Tesla took with the Model 3 ramp, such as betting the entire company on the vehicle’s success, will likely not be replicated in the future. According to Musk, he does not foresee any bet-the-company situations arising, regardless of Tesla’s upcoming projects and vehicles.
“To the best of my judgment, I do not think we have any future bet-the-company situations. We will still need to work hard and be vigilant and not be complacent because it is very difficult just to survive as a car company. But it will not be the same level of strain as getting to volume production of Model 3,” he said.
Investor's Corner
Tesla investor Calpers opposes Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award
Musk’s 2025 pay plan will be decided at Tesla’s 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, which will be held on November 6 in Giga Texas.
One of the United States’ largest pension funds, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (Calpers), has stated that it will be voting against Elon Musk’s 2025 Tesla CEO performance award.
Musk’s 2025 pay plan will be decided at Tesla’s 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, which will be held on November 6 in Giga Texas. Company executives have stated that the upcoming vote will decide Tesla’s fate in the years to come.
Why Calpers opposes Musk’s 2025 performance award
In a statement shared with Bloomberg News, a Calpers spokesperson criticized the scale of Musk’s proposed deal. Calpers currently holds about 5 million Tesla shares, giving its stance meaningful influence among institutional investors.
“The CEO pay package proposed by Tesla is larger than pay packages for CEOs in comparable companies by many orders of magnitude. It would also further concentrate power in a single shareholder,” the spokesperson stated.
This is not the first time Calpers has opposed a major Musk pay deal. The fund previously voted against a $56 billion package proposed for Musk and criticized the CEO’s 2018 performance-based plan, which was perceived as unrealistic due to its ambitious nature at the time. Musk’s 2018 pay plan was later struck down by a Delaware court, though Tesla is currently appealing the decision.
Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award
While Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award will result in him becoming a trillionaire, he would not be able to receive any compensation from Tesla unless aggressive operational and financial targets are met. For Musk to receive his full compensation, for example, he would have to grow Tesla’s market cap from today’s $1.1 trillion to $8.5 trillion, effectively making it the world’s most valuable company by a mile.
Musk has also maintained that his 2025 performance award is not about compensation. It’s about his controlling stake at Tesla. “If I can just get kicked out in the future by activist shareholder advisory firms who don’t even own Tesla shares themselves, I’m not comfortable with that future,” Musk wrote in a post on X.
Investor's Corner
Tesla enters new stability phase, firm upgrades and adjusts outlook
Dmitriy Pozdnyakov of Freedom Capital upgraded his outlook on Tesla shares from “Sell” to “Hold” on Wednesday, and increased the price target from $338 to $406.
Tesla is entering a new phase of stability in terms of vehicle deliveries, one firm wrote in a new note during the final week of October, backing its position with an upgrade and price target increase on the stock.
Dmitriy Pozdnyakov of Freedom Capital upgraded his outlook on Tesla shares from “Sell” to “Hold” on Wednesday, and increased the price target from $338 to $406.
While most firms are interested in highlighting Tesla’s future growth, which will be catalyzed mostly by the advent of self-driving vehicles, autonomy, and the company’s all-in mentality on AI and robotics, Pozdnyakov is solely focusing on vehicle deliveries.
The analyst wrote in a note to investors that he believes Tesla’s updated vehicle lineup, which includes its new affordable “Standard” trims of the Model 3 and Model Y, is going to stabilize the company’s delivery volumes and return the company to annual growth.
Tesla launches two new affordable models with ‘Standard’ Model 3, Y offerings
Tesla launched the new affordable Model 3 and Model Y “Standard” trims on October 7, which introduced two stripped-down, less premium versions of the all-electric sedan and crossover.
They are both priced at under $40,000, with the Model 3 at $37,990 and the Model Y at $39,990, and while these prices may not necessarily be what consumers were expecting, they are well under what Kelley Blue Book said was the average new car transaction price for September, which swelled above $50,000.
Despite the rollout of these two new models, it is interesting to hear that a Wall Street firm would think that Tesla is going to return to more stable delivery figures and potentially enter a new growth phase.
Many Wall Street firms have been more focused on AI, Robotics, and Tesla’s self-driving project, which are the more prevalent things that will drive investor growth over the next few years.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, tends to focus on the company’s prowess in AI and self-driving. However, he did touch on vehicle deliveries in the coming years in a recent note.
Ives said in a note on October 2:
“While EV demand is expected to fall with the EV tax credit expiration, this was a great bounce-back quarter for TSLA to lay the groundwork for deliveries moving forward, but there is still work to do to gain further ground from a delivery perspective.”
Tesla has some things to figure out before it can truly consider guaranteed stability from a delivery standpoint. Initially, the next two quarters will be a crucial way to determine demand without the $7,500 EV tax credit. It will also begin to figure out if its new affordable models are attractive enough at their current price point to win over consumers.
Investor's Corner
Bank of America raises Tesla PT to $471, citing Robotaxi and Optimus potential
The firm also kept a Neutral rating on the electric vehicle maker, citing strong progress in autonomy and robotics.
Bank of America has raised its Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target by 38% to $471, up from $341 per share.
The firm also kept a Neutral rating on the electric vehicle maker, citing strong progress in autonomy and robotics.
Robotaxi and Optimus momentum
Bank of America analyst Federico Merendi noted that the firm’s price target increase reflects Tesla’s growing potential in its Robotaxi and Optimus programs, among other factors. BofA’s updated valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) model extending through 2040, which shows the Robotaxi platform accounting for 45% of total value. The model also shows Tesla’s humanoid robot Optimus contributing 19%, and Full Self-Driving (FSD) and the Energy segment adding 17% and 6% respectively.
“Overall, we find that TSLA’s core automotive business represents around 12% of the total value while robotaxi is 45%, FSD is 17%, Energy Generation & Storage is around 6% and Optimus is 19%,” the Bank of America analyst noted.
Still a Neutral rating
Despite recognizing long-term potential in AI-driven verticals, Merendi’s team maintained a Neutral rating, suggesting that much of the optimism is already priced into Tesla’s valuation.
“Our PO revision is driven by a lower cost of equity capital, better Robotaxi progress, and a higher valuation for Optimus to account for the potential entrance into international markets,” the analyst stated.
Interestingly enough, Tesla’s core automotive business, which contributes the lion’s share of the company’s operations today, represents just 12% of total value in BofA’s model.
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