Investor's Corner
Tesla upsells Model 3 Performance as Musk ponders ‘mental scar tissue’ from production ramp
Tesla is starting to upsell the Model 3 Performance to reservation holders, with CEO Elon Musk announcing more exciting aspects of the vehicle on Twitter. Musk’s recent announcements describe the vehicle’s suspension and brakes, as well as the company’s ongoing test drive program for the compact electric car.
According to Musk, the Model 3 Performance will feature a lower ride height helped by the performance suspension system and stronger brakes than non-Performance variants, which would enhance the vehicles’ track capabilities. The upgrade would further bolster claims that Model 3 Performance will outperform all vehicles in its class on the race track, including the BMW M3.
Performance version suspension is 1cm lower & has stronger brakes in upgrade package
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 13, 2018
Equipping larger brakes on the Model 3 Performance is definitely the right decision from Tesla. The car’s stock brakes, after all, are unable to handle hard track driving, as evidenced in a Laguna Seca run by a mostly stock Model 3 earlier this year. With upgraded brakes, the Model 3, even the single motor, non-Performance Long Range RWD version, becomes a formidable vehicle on the racecourse, recently beating Porsche to win a Time Attack challenge in a Canadian racing event.
Overall, Musk’s recent Twitter statements for the Model 3 Performance comes amidst the company’s latest attempt to upsell the vehicle. Tesla, after all, has been putting some extra attention on the Model 3 Performance, with the electric car maker recently showcasing the car’s drifting capabilities in a skidpad testing video. Elon Musk also noted that the company had produced approximately 100 units of the Model 3 Performance to date, which would be used for test drive units in the company’s showrooms. In a recent Twitter announcement, Musk further encouraged reservation holders to test drive the Model 3 Performance regardless of whether they plan to buy the top trim variant or not.
These sure look like the ~100 performance #Model3 that $TSLA says were built for test drives. Question is when will they move off the lot into stores? Or have they already and these are leftovers? Images are from July 10th. https://t.co/PRuKZUvBtf #Tesla pic.twitter.com/SpU3ivTIA7
— RS Metrics (@RSMetrics) July 12, 2018
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Tesla’s upselling of the Model 3 Performance comes amidst the company’s push to sustain mass production of its electric car. Since the company achieved its ever-elusive goal of producing 5,000 Model 3 per week during the end of Q2 2018, Tesla has been ramping the deliveries of the vehicle. Recent signs from Tesla also appear to be teasing that the company would be able to sustain a 5,000/week pace this Q3 2018. Among these are frequent mass VIN registrations, a new 5-minute Sign & Drive delivery program, and recent statements related by Senior Director of Investor Relations Aaron Chew, who reportedly stated in meeting with investors and analysts that the company is targeting a sustained 5,000-6,000/week production pace for the current quarter.
Whether you plan to buy a Dual Motor Performance Model 3 or not, take it for a test drive anyway. It’s like having pure fun jacked straight into your brain whenever you want.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 13, 2018
While Tesla appears to have broken through a massive roadblock with the Model 3, Elon Musk’s recent statements to Bloomberg reveal that the manufacturing feat came at a high price. As noted by Musk in a recent interview with the publication, the Model 3 ramp has been incredibly difficult for him and Tesla, to the point where he feels he developed permanent mental scars from the experience.
“It’s been super-hard. Like there is for sure some permanent mental scar tissue here. But I do feel good about the months to come. I think the results will speak for themselves,” Musk said.
Musk, however, noted that the risks Tesla took with the Model 3 ramp, such as betting the entire company on the vehicle’s success, will likely not be replicated in the future. According to Musk, he does not foresee any bet-the-company situations arising, regardless of Tesla’s upcoming projects and vehicles.
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“To the best of my judgment, I do not think we have any future bet-the-company situations. We will still need to work hard and be vigilant and not be complacent because it is very difficult just to survive as a car company. But it will not be the same level of strain as getting to volume production of Model 3,” he said.
In a new note to investors on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco said that Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors regarding its Robotaxi rollout, Full Self-Driving software, and Optimus.
Percoco said in the note that, for the most part, investors are still very positive about the direction the company is headed. However, there are some things the firm would like to see, and they have to do with financials.
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2026 earnings results: miss on EPS, beat on revenue
Tesla bulls are more than convinced that the company’s Full Self-Driving software is proof it can develop physical AI. Financially, however, there are still some questions, especially on elevated spending, which CEO Elon Musk said would occur as the company works to roll out Robotaxi faster and continue developing its Optimus robot.
The latter two are where Tesla will have to prove progress to investors, as Percoco writes that both projects “will require clearer evidence that Robotaxi is scaling and more tangible Optimus proof points to support the ROI on elevated capex.”
Percoco said the second quarter earnings call did not change his long-term thesis of where Tesla is positioned in the AI race, which is out in front. However, there are concerns that weaker gross margins and higher R&D spend will stress financials, and that has “sharpened our (and investors’) focus on measurable progress across Robotaxi and Optimus.”
Additionally, Robotaxi still needs to be proven with more operation in existing cities while maintaining safety but improving how many rides it gives in any given time, he said. For Optimus, Percoco wrote that he is “still looking for evidence beyond commentary around SOP.”
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Morgan Stanley put Percoco in charge of covering Tesla after long-time analyst Adam Jonas transitioned to the automotive side.
Currently, Morgan Stanley has a $415 price target on Tesla and a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock. It is trading at around $330 at the time of publication, which was 2:30 P.M. on the East Coast.
SpaceX’s massive investment in AI will make it a big winner, Argus Research said after the company’s successful earnings call last week.
The firm also upgraded shares to a Buy from Hold and set a $160 price target.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is currently recovering from its heavy AI infrastructure investments, as it spent nearly $16 billion in Q2 alone. The company did this primarily by monetizing high-demand GPU compute capacity at a much faster pace than traditional data center economics would suggest.
Company CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX would be able to pay back anything on new deployments within a year.
There are plenty of ways the company can do this:
Leasing excess compute capacity through contracts
SpaceX has already built Colossus and Colossus II, largely for its own model training. However, much of that capacity is already rented out to third parties. It already has major deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. These partnerships are adding billions per month to SpaceX’s spreadsheet.
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High utilization driven by industry-wide scarcity
The demand for advanced AI training and inference capacity continues to exceed what is available for use. SpaceX can fill new racks quickly after they come online, so the capital deployed converts into revenue with minimal idle time.
Additionally, management and outside observers have described the new compute capital as behaving more like a cost-of-goods-sold than traditional multi-year capex, especially because of this rapid monetization pattern.
Capacity has already scaled from ~0.4 GW a year to 1.4 GW annually by the end of Q2. There are targets of more than 2 GW by year-end.
High incremental margins on the rental business once capacity is online
GPU cloud providers often operate at strong gross margins. SpaceX can monetize capacity that was already partially built or can be added efficiently. This means that incremental EBITDA margins on the rental revenue are usually high. This accelerates cash recovery relative to the gross capital outlay.
Parallel monetization of its own AI software and applications
Beyond pure infrastructure rental, SpaceX also generates revenue from Grok through subscriptions and usage, from X through ads, data, and other related services, enterprise APIs, and the planned integration of the Cursor coding tools acquisition.
These application layers ride on the same compute infrastructure and provide additional high-margin streams that could offset build-out costs. AI-segment revenue overall rose sharply to about $2.6 billion in Q2, according to Motley Fool. This was driven primarily by the infrastructure contracts, but the software side is also partially responsible.
Efficient, large-scale deployment and vertical integration advantages
SpaceX has emphasized the rapid construction of power and cooling infrastructure and favorable cost-per-megawatt economics relative to industry benchmarks in some disclosures.
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Combined with its ability to scale capacity aggressively and the fact that many contracts start generating revenue within months of capacity coming online, the effective payback compresses dramatically compared with more conventional multi-year data-center projects.
SpaceX’s dominant near-term recovery path will turn the AI clusters into a hyperscale-style compute rental business for other leading AI companies while still using a portion for internal models.
Elon Musk
Another Tesla SpaceX merger prediction by ARK Invest has Elon Musk talking
Elon Musk again denies a Tesla China split as new SpaceX merger speculation resurfaces quickly.
Elon Musk restated that Tesla has no plans to separate its China business from the rest of the company, responding to a new round of merger speculation from ARK Invest.
On the firm’s “Brainstorm” podcast, Cathie Wood’s team, including chief futurist Brett Winton and research director Nick Grous, argued a Tesla and SpaceX combination remains likely, with an announcement possible before the end of the year even if the deal itself would not close that quickly. Winton called Tesla’s Shanghai operations a “small ish wrinkle” for a merger rather than a real obstacle, since SpaceX’s national security work with the U.S. government sits uneasily next to Tesla’s manufacturing base in China.
Musk pushed back on the framing directly. “China is awesome. I strongly encourage people to visit,” he wrote on X. He also repeated language he first used in late July, when the Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla executives had been told to prepare for a possible spinoff, sale, or closure of the China business ahead of a SpaceX tie up. Musk called that report “absurdly fake news” at the time, adding that a separation had “never even come up in a discussion ever,” a line he echoed again this week.
The repeated denial has not settled the underlying question, because Shanghai’s role in Tesla’s business is exactly what makes a merger complicated. Gigafactory Shanghai still ships more than half of Tesla’s global deliveries and functions as the company’s main export hub for Europe and Asia. Teslarati previously reported on Musk’s initial denial, and the merger conversation itself has been building since SpaceX’s IPO gave it public shares to use as acquisition currency.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives has pegged the odds of a Tesla SpaceX merger at 80 to 90 percent by early 2027, and ARK’s prediction of a year end announcement adds another data point to that timeline, even as Musk keeps rejecting the specific mechanics reporters have described. Neither position rules out the other. Musk can deny a China spinoff was ever discussed while analysts still expect some form of combination to move forward, since ARK and Ives are both describing convergence at the corporate level, not necessarily the internal restructuring the Journal described in July.
For now, Tesla’s China business remains intact, and Musk’s comments this week make clear he has no interest in publicly walking that position back, no matter how often the merger question resurfaces.
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Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors: Morgan Stanley
SpaceX AI investment gamble will make it a big winner, firm says
