News
Tesla confessions: The Model Y is looking better and better the closer it is to production
Note: I don’t usually do personal op-eds, but I’m making an exception this time around. This story may be well worth the read, at least for those who have had the same experience.
I was at Porsche’s 2019 Annual Press Conference in Stuttgart when Tesla unveiled the Model Y. I was dead tired from the day’s activities, but considering that the all-important Model Y was being unveiled that day, I opted to just chuck an extra cup of coffee and pull an all-nighter instead. After all, the Model Y is arguably the EV that can very well make Tesla into a household name. It’s got the price, it’s competing in the crossover segment, and it’s coming at a time when Tesla wasn’t hanging by a thread anymore. And so, I waited, overdosed with caffeine, for the vehicle’s unveiling.
The event started off normal enough. I fired up my word processor and prepared to write. Elon Musk provided a compelling narrative about Tesla’s journey from the Roadster to the present, even bringing out the Model S, Model X, and Model 3 onstage. Then, at the end of the unveiling event, almost seemingly as an afterthought, Musk brought out the Model Y. Out then comes a vehicle that looks nearly identical to a Model 3. In the darkened stage the two were almost indistinguishable from each other. It’s slightly taller, and it was chrome deleted, but that’s about it. Then, following a very brief discussion of its specs and its estimated release date, the Model Y’s unveiling event was done.
Needless to say, I was a bit underwhelmed. I’ve been following the Model Y story for years, and amidst all this excitement for the vehicle, it turned out to be this chunkier Model 3. Other journalists on my bus who also attended the Porsche press conference the following morning felt the same. Jokes were thrown around. “It’s a fat Model 3.” “Why, Model Y?” Even I, the conference’s token reporter from the “obviously pro-Tesla website,” couldn’t really “defend” the Y’s design that much. It’s not like I could say a much. It’s really just a bigger Model 3.
That was months ago. Since then, there have been an increasing number of Model Y sightings across the United States. Bob Lutz has called the Y a “terminally ugly” vehicle, even adding that he doesn’t really know how anyone can buy the Model Y. Yet, amidst all these sightings, and as reports from Tesla indicated that the Model Y might be starting production earlier than expected, something happened. Little by little, the Model Y started to look good — really good. And it doesn’t seem to be just me either. Comments on YouTube videos, Twitter posts, and Reddit threads showed that the Tesla community was warming up to the Y’s very Model 3-esque design.
This became even more evident when the size of the Y became evident. As it turns out, the Model Y seems to be a good deal larger than the Model 3, with some Tesla community members who have personally seen the vehicle stating that the crossover is actually pretty close in size to the Model X, Tesla’s largest vehicle before the massive Cybertruck. The Model Y also looked very attractive with its Gemini Wheels, which appear to be installed in release candidates of its Performance variant. A recent sighting of a white Performance Model Y from StevenMConroy depicts this very well.
Elon Musk has stated that the Model Y has the potential to outsell the Model S, Model X, and Model 3 combined. That’s a statement that sounds hyper-ambitious in a classic Elon Musk kind of way, but it’s feasible. The crossover market is vast, and it’s growing by the year. Combined with its trademark Tesla performance and its reasonable price, the Model Y has a ton of potential. It may have been an acquired taste for the Tesla community or people like me, but for the everyday car buyer, the Model Y may simply be this futuristic crossover that’s cheap to run, blazingly quick, spacious, and surprisingly reasonable in price. That’s a pretty difficult combination to beat.
There were a lot of criticisms that were thrown at the Model Y when it was unveiled, and a lot of it was due to its design. The TSLAQ group on Twitter actually insisted that there was no Model Y at all, and that the vehicle that Tesla unveiled was just a raised Model 3. But then, as the Model Y closes in on its first production, and as more and more release candidates start getting spotted on the road, it is starting to appear that perhaps, just perhaps, Tesla knew what it was doing when it decided on the crossover’s design. The Model Y may not incite the same excitement as the next-gen Roadster or have the same shock value as the Cybertruck, but perhaps, it doesn’t really need to.
It just needs to be. And for all-electric crossovers that are designed to be disruptive, that’s potentially enough. It certainly is for me.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
