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Tesla, a stealthy Model Y ramp, and the art of underpromising
There was once a time when it was a legitimate criticism to state that Tesla and its CEO, Elon Musk, are prone to being a bit too optimistic in presenting a grand vision of the future. But since unveiling the Model Y all-electric crossover, it appears that Tesla has entered a new era — one where Elon Musk is developing the art of underpromising and overdelivering. This is a pretty frightening topic for the company’s critics, especially those with financial stakes against Tesla.
Despite all the hype surrounding its release, many, including myself, were quite underwhelmed when the Model Y was unveiled. Being heavily based on the Model 3 sedan, the Y was so similar that TSLA shorts actually accused the electric carmaker of fraud (no surprise there) for allegedly passing off a raised Model 3 as a new vehicle. This is a ridiculous accusation, of course, but it does give an idea about how understated the Model Y and its unveiling really was.
But the Y seems destined to disappoint the anti-Tesla crowd without remorse.
During its unveiling, Elon Musk stated that deliveries of the vehicle are expected to start in Fall 2020, a conservative date that was moved up to Summer 2020 in the company’s Q3 2019 Update Letter. During the fourth quarter earnings call, Tesla CFO Zachary Kirkhorn announced that first deliveries of the Model Y will actually be happening sometime later this quarter. That’s far earlier than what even most TSLA bulls have predicted.
This is also a very different strategy than what Tesla adopted for the Model 3. When the Model 3 kicked off its mass production with its first customer handovers, Elon Musk announced a hyper-aggressive delivery timeframe that ended up being delayed by six months. The company suffered as a result, from its share price in the markets to the fatigue of Tesla employees working to bring the Model 3 to its target production levels. With the Model Y, Tesla seems to have started with a conservative timeline that it knew it could easily beat, and it worked its way up from there.
Based on the updates to the Model Y’s delivery timeframes, it appears that Tesla may only be adjusting its targets once it knows it can actually meet them. This shows a degree of maturity on Tesla’s part that has not really been seen in the past, and it is something that should frighten those who actively bet against the company.
This shows that Tesla is learning from its mistakes, and it is taking the lessons from the past and adapting it for the future. During the early days of the original Roadster and the Model S, it was imperative for the company to promote the vehicle’s maximum range potential to make them competitive against their petrol-powered rivals. Today, Tesla can actually afford to lowball its range. CARB filings for the Model Y initially suggested a range of over 300 miles for the vehicle’s performance variant, and this was confirmed in recent updates to Tesla’s order page. When the Model Y was unveiled, its Performance trim was listed with a range of 280. Now, the vehicle has a range of 315 miles per charge.
What is rather interesting is that Tesla is doing this while its competitors are still at a point where they are overpromising on their vehicles. Just look at the range portion of the Ford Mustang Mach-E’s presentation: the words “target range” are abounding. That means that Ford thinks it could reach the range it announced for the vehicle, but it is still working on it. It’s a strategy that’s a lot more cautious than Porsche’s with its early announcements of a 300-mile Taycan, but perhaps the American automaker learned its lesson from the Turbo S’ 192-mile range EPA rating.
It takes an ambitious company to aim for hyper-aggressive targets that have a good chance of not being met, but it takes a mature company to publicly announce goals that it knows it can beat. Tesla appears to be in the latter camp with the Model Y, and that’s really good. Apple’s legendary CEO, Steve Jobs, made his mark in the tech sector with an underpromise and overdeliver strategy, and it ultimately helped the tech giant build enough momentum to make it the juggernaut that it is today. There’s no reason why Tesla and Elon Musk cannot do the same.
Tesla executive Lars Moravy appeared today in front of the U.S. Senate Commerce Committee to highlight the importance of modernizing autonomy standards by establishing a federal framework that would reward innovation and keep the country on pace with foreign rivals.
Moravy, who is Tesla’s Vice President of Vehicle Engineering, strongly advocated for Congress to enact a national framework for autonomous vehicle development and deployment, replacing the current patchwork of state-by-state rules.
These rules have slowed progress and kept companies fighting tooth-and-nail with local legislators to operate self-driving projects in controlled areas.
Tesla already has a complete Robotaxi model, and it doesn’t depend on passenger count
Moravy said the new federal framework was essential for the U.S. to “maintain its position in global technological development and grow its advanced manufacturing capabilities.
He also said in a warning to the committee that outdated regulations and approval processes would “inhibit the industry’s ability to innovate,” which could potentially lead to falling behind China.
Being part of the company leading the charge in terms of autonomous vehicle development in the U.S., Moravy highlighted Tesla’s prowess through the development of the Full Self-Driving platform. Tesla vehicles with FSD engaged average 5.1 million miles before a major collision, which outpaces that of the human driver average of roughly 699,000 miles.
Moravy also highlighted the widely cited NHTSA statistic that states that roughly 94 percent of crashes stem from human error, positioning autonomous vehicles as a path to dramatically reduce fatalities and injuries.
🚨 Tesla VP of Vehicle Engineering, Lars Moravy, appeared today before the U.S. Senate Commerce Committee to discuss the importance of outlining an efficient framework for autonomous vehicles:
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) February 4, 2026
Skeptics sometimes point to cybersecurity concerns within self-driving vehicles, which was something that was highlighted during the Senate Commerce Committee hearing, but Moravy said, “No one has ever been able to take over control of our vehicles.”
This level of security is thanks to a core-embedded central layer, which is inaccessible from external connections. Additionally, Tesla utilizes a dual cryptographic signature from two separate individuals, keeping security high.
Moravy also dove into Tesla’s commitment to inclusive mobility by stating, “We are committed with our future products and Robotaxis to provide accessible transportation to everyone.” This has been a major point of optimism for AVs because it could help the disabled, physically incapable, the elderly, and the blind have consistent transportation.
Overall, Moravy’s testimony blended urgency about geopolitical competition, especially China, with concrete safety statistics and a vision of the advantages autonomy could bring for everyone, not only in the U.S., but around the world, as well.
Tesla launched a new configuration of the Model Y this week, bringing more complexity to its lineup of the vehicle and adding a new, lower entry point for those who require an All-Wheel-Drive car.
However, the broadening of the Model Y lineup in the United States could signal a somewhat uncomfortable reality for Tesla fans and car buyers, who have been vocal about their desire for a larger, full-size SUV.
Tesla has essentially moved in the opposite direction through its closure of the Model X and its continuing expansion of a vehicle that fits the bill for many, but not all.
Tesla brings closure to Model Y moniker with launch of new trim level
While CEO Elon Musk has said that there is the potential for the Model Y L, a longer wheelbase configuration of the vehicle, to enter the U.S. market late this year, it is not a guarantee.
Instead, Tesla has prioritized the need to develop vehicles and trim levels that cater to the future rollout of the Robotaxi ride-hailing service and a fully autonomous future.
But the company could be missing out on a massive opportunity, as SUVs are a widely popular body style in the U.S., especially for families, as the tighter confines of compact SUVs do not support the needs of a large family.
Although there are other companies out there that manufacture this body style, many are interested in sticking with Tesla because of the excellent self-driving platform, expansive charging infrastructure, and software performance the vehicles offer.
Additionally, the lack of variety from an aesthetic and feature standpoint has caused a bit of monotony throughout the Model Y lineup. Although Premium options are available, those three configurations only differ in terms of range and performance, at least for the most part, and the differences are not substantial.
Minor Expansions of the Model Y Fail to Address Family Needs for Space
Offering similar trim levels with slight differences to cater to each consumer’s needs is important. However, these vehicles keep a constant: cargo space and seating capacity.
Larger families need something that would compete with vehicles like the Chevrolet Tahoe, Ford Expedition, or Cadillac Escalade, and while the Model X was its largest offering, that is going away.
Tesla could fix this issue partially with the rollout of the Model Y L in the U.S., but only if it plans to continue offering various Model Y vehicles and expanding on its offerings with that car specifically. There have been hints toward a Cyber-inspired SUV in the past, but those hints do not seem to be a drastic focus of the company, given its autonomy mission.
Model Y Expansion Doesn’t Boost Performance, Value, or Space
You can throw all the different badges, powertrains, and range ratings on the same vehicle, it does not mean it’s going to sell better. The Model Y was already the best-selling vehicle in the world on several occasions. Adding more configurations seems to be milking it.
The true need of people, especially now that the Model X is going away, is going to be space. What vehicle fits the bill of a growing family, or one that has already outgrown the Model Y?
Not Expanding the Lineup with a New Vehicle Could Be a Missed Opportunity
The U.S. is the world’s largest market for three-row SUVs, yet Tesla’s focus on tweaking the existing Model Y ignores this. This could potentially result in the Osborne Effect, as sales of current models without capturing new customers who need more seating and versatility.
Expansions of the current Model Y offerings risk adding production complexity without addressing core demands, and given that the Model Y L is already being produced in China, it seems like it would be a reasonable decision to build a similar line in Texas.
Listening to consumers means introducing either the Model Y L here, or bringing a new, modern design to the lineup in the form of a full-size SUV.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Elon Musk recently reiterated one of the most ambitious forecasts for Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, stating it could become the first real-world example of a Von Neumann machine. He also noted once more that Optimus would be Tesla’s biggest product.
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Optimus as a von Neumann machine
In response to a post on X that pondered on sci-fi timelines becoming real, Musk wrote that “Optimus will be the first Von Neumann machine, capable of building civilization by itself on any viable planet.” In a separate post, Musk wrote that Optimus will be Tesla’s “biggest product ever,” a phrase he has used in the past to describe the humanoid robot’s importance to the electric vehicle maker.
A Von Neumann machine is a class of theoretical self-replicating systems originally proposed in the mid-20th century by the mathematician John von Neumann. In his concept, von Neumann described machines that could travel to other worlds, use local materials to create copies of themselves, and carry out large-scale tasks without outside intervention.
Elon Musk’s broader plans
Considering Musk’s comments, it appears that Optimus would eventually be capable of performing complex work autonomously in environments beyond Earth. If Optimus could achieve such a feat, it could very well unlock humanity’s capability to explore locations beyond Earth. The idea of space exploration becomes more than feasible.
Elon Musk has discussed space-based AI compute, large-scale robotic production, and the role of SpaceX’s Starship in transporting hardware and materials to other planets. While Musk did not detail how Optimus would fit with SpaceX’s exploration activities, his Von Neumann machine comments suggest he is looking at Tesla’s robotics as part of a potential interplanetary ecosystem.
Tesla exec pleads for federal framework of autonomy to U.S. Senate Committee
Tesla Model Y lineup expansion signals an uncomfortable reality for consumers
