A refreshed Tesla Model Y was spotted over the weekend, but that does not necessarily mean it will come out anytime soon.
We reported on the sighting of a potential Model Y refresh, known as “Project Juniper,” this past weekend. However, although it could potentially be an early rendition of what Tesla could do to bring a new look and new features to its most popular car, it will take some time for it to hit production lines and make it to the public.
Credit: u/JackIJack | Reddit
In June 2022, Tesla started preparing its Fremont Factory for upgraded production lines that would allow the plant to begin producing the Model 3 Highland.
It took over 18 months for the vehicle to arrive in U.S. showrooms, mostly because of its new features, line upgrades at various factories, and Tesla’s prioritization of the Cybertruck.
Yet, here we are once again. The Model Y is likely due for a slightly new look and some more refined features, and it could pay off in the long run as it has already overtaken every vehicle on Earth in terms of global sales. Last year, it was the best-selling vehicle in the world.
Why We Won’t See the Model Y Refresh Anytime Soon
There are a few reasons why the public won’t be able to buy this vehicle anytime soon.
Robotaxi and Next-Gen Platform are Priority
Initially, Tesla is preparing for its August 8 unveiling of the Robotaxi, which will be its main focus as the automaker has already admitted its priority is the next-generation platform.
Tesla’s main goal for the next few years will be to develop this platform, initiating its next phase of growth as a company. A lot has been made of its delivery numbers this year, which do not seem like they will outpace the figures it reported in 2023.
Tesla reports Q2 delivery and production figures, beating estimates
However, Tesla is not concerned about this. It admitted that its growth rate would be lower over the duration of the next-gen platform’s development.
Once the Robotaxi and another mass-market vehicle are created, which should be offered at a price point below $30,000, Tesla will see those delivery numbers go up.
The Model Y will still perform well, and it’s still a desirable vehicle. There is no reason to prioritize a refresh for it at this juncture, especially because the difference in sales will be relatively small.
Tesla has already said it’s not coming this year
Tesla is not the best at managing timelines, and anyone who has followed the company for any length of time knows that.
With that being said, CEO Elon Musk has already confirmed the Model Y refresh is not coming this year. However, that does indirectly confirm it is coming eventually.
Musk reiterates that Model Y refresh is not coming this year
Musk mentioned that there are constant improvements every six months when he said this, but this does not necessarily include vast cosmetic differences. From a visual standpoint, it’s the same.
So if not now, when?
It’s safe to assume that 2026 would be a good guess for the Model Y Juniper. Basing this off of the prioritization of Robotaxi and the next-gen platform, along with what the Model 3 Highland went through from start to finish, it would be best to expect it after 2025.
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News
Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is doubling down on Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) long-term upside. In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario, thanks to the company’s efforts to develop and push its artificial intelligence programs.
An aggressive valuation upside
Ives, Wedbush’s global head of tech research, stated in his post that Tesla is entering a pivotal period as its autonomy and robotics ambitions move closer to commercialization. He expects Tesla’s market cap to reach $2 trillion in 2026, representing roughly 33% upside from current levels, with a bull case up to a $3 trillion market cap by year-end.
Overall, Ives noted that 2026 could become a “monster year” for TSLA. “Heading into 2026, this marks a monster year ahead for Tesla/Musk as the autonomous and robotics chapter begins. We believe Tesla hits a $2 trillion market cap in 2026 and in a bull case scenario $3 trillion by end of 2026… as the AI chapter takes hold at TSLA,” the analyst wrote.
Ives also reiterated his “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock, as well as his $600 per share price target.
Unsupervised Full-Self Driving tests
Fueling optimism is Tesla’s recent autonomous vehicle testing in Austin, Texas. Over the weekend, at least two Tesla Model Ys were spotted driving on public roads without a safety monitor or any other occupants. CEO Elon Musk later confirmed the footage of one of the vehicles on X, writing in a post that “testing is underway with no occupant in the car.”
It remains unclear whether the vehicle was supported by chase cars or remote monitoring, and Tesla has not disclosed how many vehicles are involved. That being said, Elon Musk stated a week ago that Tesla would be removing its Safety Monitors from its vehicles “within the next three weeks.” Based on the driverless vehicles’ sightings so far, it appears that Musk’s estimate may be right on the mark, at least for now.
News
Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
Tesla has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements.
Tesla has showcased what appears to be a near-production-ready Cybercab at its Santana Row showroom in San Jose, California, giving visitors the closest look yet at the autonomous two-seater’s refined design.
Based on photos of the near-production-ready vehicle, the electric vehicle maker has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements, making the vehicle look more polished and seemingly more comfortable than its prototypes from last year.
Exterior and interior refinements
The updated Cybercab, whose photos were initially shared by Tesla advocate Nic Cruz Patane, now features a new frameless window design, an extended bottom splitter on the front bumper, and a slightly updated rear hatch. It also includes a production-spec front lightbar with integrated headlights, new wheel covers, and a license plate bracket.
Notably, the vehicle now has two windshield wipers instead of the prototype’s single unit, along with powered door struts, seemingly for smoother opening of its butterfly doors. Inside, the Cybercab now sports what appears to be a redesigned dash and door panels, updated carpet material, and slightly refined seat cushions with new center cupholders. Its legroom seems to have gotten slightly larger as well.
Cybercab sightings
Sightings of the updated Cybercab have been abundant in recent months. At the end of October, the Tesla AI team teased some of the autonomous two-seater’s updates after it showed a photo of the vehicle being driven through an In-N-Out drive-through by employees in Halloween costumes. The photos of the Cybercab were fun, but they were significant, with longtime Tesla watchers noting that the company has a tradition of driving its prototypes through the fast food chain’s drive-throughs.
Even at the time, Tesla enthusiasts noticed that the Cybercab had received some design changes, such as segmented DRLs and headlamps, actual turn signals, and a splitter that’s a lot sharper. Larger door openings, which now seem to have been teasing the vehicle’s updated cabin, were also observed at the time.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
Tesla analyst Dan Levy of Barclays realized one big thing about the stock moving into 2026: vehicle deliveries are losing importance.
As a new era of Tesla seems to be on the horizon, the concern about vehicle deliveries and annual growth seems to be fading, at least according to many investors.
Even CEO Elon Musk has implied at times that the automotive side, as a whole, will only make up a small percentage of Tesla’s total valuation, as Optimus and AI begin to shine with importance.
He said in April:
“The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large-scale and large volume, vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots.”
Almost all of Tesla’s value long-term will be from AI & robots, both vehicle & humanoid
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 11, 2023
Levy wrote in a note to investors that Tesla’s Q4 delivery figures “likely won’t matter for the stock.” Barclays said in the note that it expects deliveries to be “soft” for the quarter.
In years past, Tesla analysts, investors, and fans were focused on automotive growth.
Cars were truly the biggest thing the stock had to offer: Tesla was a growing automotive company with a lot of prowess in AI and software, but deliveries held the most impact, along with vehicle pricing. These types of things had huge impacts on the stock years ago.
In fact, several large swings occurred because of Tesla either beating or missing delivery estimates:
- January 3, 2022: +13.53%, record deliveries at the time
- January 3, 2023: -12.24%, missed deliveries
- July 2, 2024: +10.20%, beat delivery expectations
- October 3, 2022: -8.61%, sharp miss due to Shanghai factory shutdown
- July 2, 2020: +7.95%, topped low COVID-era expectations with sizeable beat on deliveries
It has become more apparent over the past few quarters that delivery estimates have significantly less focus from investors, who are instead looking for progress in AI, Optimus, Cybercab, and other projects.
These things are the future of the company, and although Tesla will always sell cars, the stock is more impacted by the software the vehicle is running, and not necessarily the vehicle itself.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
