Investor's Corner
It’s clear, Tesla needs a COO and it can’t come soon enough
Tesla’s stock price has fallen nearly 24% in the last month, with the majority of the decline occurring this week. The drastic change isn’t really attributable to a single factor. The company is under pressure across the board, from Model 3 production, Solar Roof delays, concerns of a cash crunch, and delays in Autopilot’s Full Self-Driving capability. While there isn’t one solution to solve all of Tesla’s growing pains, hiring a Chief Operating Officer could help bring some operational stability to the company while curbing any overpromises made to customers and investors.
Elon Musk has been the CEO of Tesla for the past 9.5 years, and with a newly approved multi-billion dollar compensation plan, signs point to Musk taking the reins for at least another 10 years. However, Musk isn’t committing solely to Tesla as he’s also the CEO and CTO of SpaceX, CEO of Neuralink, CEO of The Boring Company, and one can argue that he’s also a full-time Twitter persona.
In his other companies outside of Tesla, Musk has a key executive running the business operations. President and COO Gwynne Shotwell joined SpaceX as the 11th employee in 2002 and has turned Musk’s passion for Space into a business with over $12 billion in order contracts.
Although Tesla has nearly six times more employees than SpaceX, the young space company operates efficiently and akin to a well-oiled machine, according to employees working at SpaceX. Yet, at the same time, Tesla has seen high executive turnover, as Musk holds tight control of the company’s day-to-day management.
Tesla’s need for a “Shotwell Equivalent” is more apparent than ever and for these key reasons:
- Model 3 Production: Bloomberg’s Model 3 production tracker shows that they are below 50% of their end of March production rate target. Musk should have never increased production targets on the vehicle and needed to be far more conservative with his estimates.
- Continuous delays with Autopilot technology: After ditching Mobileye’s technology in autopilot systems 21 months ago, Tesla’s development of the technology has slowed significantly. Musk first said that a Tesla would be able to drive coast-to-coast autonomously by the end of 2017, that has now been moved to mid-2018.
- Need to capitalize on Model S and Model X. Tesla has built a high-margin business out of their Model S and Model X vehicles. At current production rates, the company can generate $2.5 billion in free cash flow from those two vehicles alone. Tesla should use strategic marketing to boost demand for the vehicles, allowing the company to bring in more high-margin revenue.
- Acquisition of SolarCity: Tesla’s acquisition of solar installation company, SolarCity, has failed to provide meaningful value to shareholders. From the outside, it appears as though Tesla’s management team doesn’t have the bandwidth or cash to grow the Solar division. Both of Musk’s cousins Peter and Lyndon Rive have left Tesla after the acquisition to “focus on other projects”.
It would be foolish to think that a COO would solve all of the company’s issues, but having a dedicated executive to manage day-to-day operations could certainly help in preventing executive turnover while keeping employees focused on Tesla’s core mission: to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy.
Who could be Tesla’s new Chief Operating Officer?
I’ve prepared a shortlist of executives that could potentially land themselves as Tesla’s first COO.
1. Mike Sievert (COO of T-Mobile US)
While Sievert doesn’t have automotive experience, he does bring strong experience managing a large employee base and has worked in the technology sector for the past 25 years. Sievert joined T-Mobile in late 2012 as CMO and became COO in 2015. Since joining T-Mobile, Sievert has been crucial to the company’s successful turnaround. And to boot, Sievert has experience working with outspoken CEOs who also moonlight as a Twitter personality.
2. Julia Steyn (VP Urban Mobility at General Motors and CEO of Maven)
Steyn joined General Motors in 2012 as VP of Merger and Acquisitions and became the VP of Urban Mobility and CEO of GM’s Maven division in late 2015. She has led the company’s initiative into car-sharing with the Maven division and has played a key role in GM’s moves into autonomous vehicles. Prior to joining GM, Steyn was VP at Alcoa, one of the world’s largest aluminum suppliers. She also spent 7.5 years at Goldman Sachs as VP of the Global Natural Resources Group in the Investment Banking division.
3. Alicia Boler Davis (EVP, Global Manufacturing and Labor Relations, General Motors)
Boler Davis has spent the last 24 years at General Motors in a variety of capacities and became EVP of Global Manufacturing and Labor Relations in 2016. She oversees over 150,000 employees in the manufacturing division of GM across 150 different facilities. Prior to her current role, she was SVP of Global Connected Customer Experience where she played a role, like Julia Steyn, in GM’s expansion into car-sharing and autonomous vehicles. Her extensive engineering and managerial experience at GM could bring more order and stability as the company plans to expand production across the globe.
Obviously, this list isn’t comprehensive but should provide a starting point for potential hires. Who do you think should be hired as the first Chief Operating Officer at Tesla?
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
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