Investor's Corner
Is Tesla’s ‘next era’ really without TSLA?
With just a few Tweets, Elon Musk announced that he intends to take Tesla private. The move came less than a week after the company’s Q2 earnings call, where Musk doubled-down on his promise to bring the company to profit in the second half of 2018. With Musk steadying his hand, it seemed he was pushing forward a “new era” for Tesla, one that aims for mild profitability, rapid growth, and continuing innovation. What’s changed?
“Grandiose promises were replaced with reachable projections, relentless growth was met with fiscal responsibility, and shaky improvisation gave way to clarity,” written in last week’s post-earnings column.
Over the last few years, Musk has often wondered aloud how Tesla would be different if it weren’t public. In Rolling Stone’s cover story of Musk last fall, he stated, “It actually makes us less efficient to be a public company.” Musk also told Bloomberg in a 2015 interview that there is “a lot of noise” when a company is public.
Would Tesla have existed without going public in 2010?
Short Answer. No.
Long Answer. Maybe.
When Tesla went public in June 2010, the company needed the cash. They were aiming to push the Model S into production and needed every dime to hire factory workers and renovate the factory. Going public for Tesla worked. The company was able to move the Model S into production and was delivering a few hundred vehicles per week before raising more money from the capital markets.
Since going public, Tesla has raised nearly $10B through debt and equity offerings (Not including the acquisition of SolarCity’s debt). It’s a sizable amount, but it pales in comparison to some private companies. For example, Uber, Lyft, and WeWork have all raised billions in the last few years. Uber has raised over $21B since its founding in 2009, Lyft has raised $4.9B since its start in 2012, and WeWork has raised $6.9B in the last 8 years.
Before Tesla went public, Musk had to pour his fortune into the company just to convince others to invest. In the past eight years, the private markets have gained a tremendous appetite. No deal is too big. No ask is ridiculous.
Who wants in on “Private Tesla”?
A lot of names have been floating around in the past day. Who’s backing Elon’s private deal? The Saudi Wealth Fund? Tencent? Softbank? Google? All of the above?
In 2016, Softbank created a $93B Vision Fund. The fund has been making massive bets everywhere, Uber, Flipkart, WeWork, NVidia, and many more. Participating in “new Tesla” wouldn’t be out of character and it would be hard to see the company passing on one of the largest private deals in history.
The Saudi Wealth Fund and Tencent both recently made sizable equity positions in the company. Tesla going private could afford them a chance to grab a board seat and a larger share of the company. The Saudi Wealth Fund announced their sizable stake yesterday morning and Tencent announced theirs in March 2017.
Google? Did I just throw them out there? The company already owns a chunk of Musk’s SpaceX and in Ashlee Vance’s 2015 biography of Elon Musk, it was revealed that Google mulled acquiring the company for $6B in early 2013 (Tesla was worth $3-4B at the time). Google’s parent company has over $100B in cash on hand, so a sizable investment into Tesla is certainly doable.
Outside of those specific entities, its worth noting that Tesla could draw significant capital from Silicon Valley. While most private equity in the valley goes to companies far smaller than Tesla, it wouldn’t be shocking to see venture firms and fellow billionaires take a position in Tesla.
So what does “Private Tesla” really look like?
In Musk’s perfect “Private Tesla” scenario, he envisions all current investors to keeping their shares with the company. But how would that really work? Musk claims that it would be structured similarly to SpaceX, which allows employees and investors to buy or sell stock every 6 months (or other liquidation events, ie. investments). That structure gives Tesla much tighter control of the share price, preventing volatility.
Highlighted in a report from The Information, current SpaceX shareholders receive a disclosure packet, along with updated financials, every 5-9 months. The process allows the company to set their own share price, after gauging outside and inside interest in acquiring or selling shares. SpaceX currently holds a valuation of $28B.
“We can afford to be picky (with investors). There’s a lot more people wanting our stock than we are willing to sell. It’s a great place to be in.” – Gwynne Shotwell, COO of SpaceX (CNBC, May 2018)
With Tesla being private, the company would forgo reporting quarterly earnings, most SEC filings, and annual shareholders meetings. Additionally, Tesla would have more flexibility in their accounting practices and reporting and less regulatory concerns. Essentially, as Musk as stated, the company would be able to operate more efficiently.
Only time will tell if Musk can pull off “taking Tesla private”. Given the size of the private markets and Musk’s drive to reduce distractions within the company, Tesla could certainly end up going private. I wouldn’t bet against Musk, just a personal rule, and it wouldn’t be out-of-character for Musk to pull off the impossible.
Great reads:
Tesla board curbs critics’ doubts as Elon Musk’s privatization plan starts forming (Teslarati)
Elon Musk: The Architect of Tomorrow (Rolling Stone)
Google almost bought Tesla when it had just two weeks of cash left (The Guardian)
How SoftBank Is Reshaping Global Tech (The Information)
Investor's Corner
Stifel raises Tesla price target by 9.8% over FSD, Robotaxi advancements
Stifel also maintained a “Buy” rating for the electric vehicle maker.
Investment firm Stifel has raised its price target for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares to $483 from $440 over increased confidence in the company’s self-driving and Robotaxi programs. The new price target suggests an 11.5% upside from Tesla’s closing price on Tuesday.
Stifel also maintained a “Buy” rating despite acknowledging that Tesla’s timeline for fully unsupervised driving may be ambitious.
Building confidence
In a note to clients, Stifel stated that it believes “Tesla is making progress with modest advancements in its Robotaxi network and FSD,” as noted in a report from Investing.com. The firm expects unsupervised FSD to become available for personal use in the U.S. by the end of 2025, with a wider ride-hailing rollout potentially covering half of the U.S. population by year-end.
Stifel also noted that Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet could expand from “tiny to gigantic” within a short time frame, possibly making a material financial impact to the company by late 2026. The firm views Tesla’s vision-based approach to autonomy as central to this long-term growth, suggesting that continued advancements could unlock new revenue streams across both consumer and mobility sectors.
Tesla’s FSD goals still ambitious
While Stifel’s tone remains optimistic, the firm’s analysts acknowledged that Tesla’s aggressive autonomy timeline may face execution challenges. The note described the 2025 unsupervised FSD target as “a stretch,” though still achievable in the medium term.
“We believe Tesla is making progress with modest advancements in its Robotaxi network and FSD. The company has high expectations for its camera-based approach including; 1) Unsupervised FSD to be available for personal use in the United States by year-end 2025, which appears to be a stretch but seems more likely in the medium term; 2) that it will ‘probably have ride hailing in probably half of the populations of the U.S. by the end of the year’,” the firm noted.
Investor's Corner
Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirms bullish view on Tesla after record Q3 deliveries
The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target.
Cantor Fitzgerald is maintaining its bullish outlook on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) following the company’s record-breaking third quarter of 2025.
The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target, citing strong delivery results driven by a rush of consumer purchases ahead of the end of the federal tax credit on September 30.
On Tesla’s vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025
During the third quarter of 2025, Tesla delivered a total of 497,099 vehicles, significantly beating analyst expectations of 443,079 vehicles. As per Cantor Fitzgerald, this was likely affected by customers rushing at the end of Q3 to purchase an EV due to the end of the federal tax credit, as noted in an Investing.com report.
“On 10/2, TSLA pre-announced that it delivered 497,099 vehicles in 3Q25 (its highest quarterly delivery in company history), significantly above Company consensus of 443,079, and above 384,122 in 2Q25. This was due primarily to a ‘push forward effect’ from consumers who rushed to purchase or lease EVs ahead of the $7,500 EV tax credit expiring on 9/30,” the firm wrote in its note.
A bright spot in Tesla Energy
Cantor Fitzgerald also highlighted that while Tesla’s full-year production and deliveries would likely fall short of 2024’s 1.8 million total, Tesla’s energy storage business remains a bright spot in the company’s results.
“Tesla also announced that it had deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products in 3Q25, its highest in company history vs. our estimate/Visible Alpha consensus of 11.5/10.9 GWh (and vs. ~6.9 GWh in 3Q24). Tesla’s Energy Storage has now deployed more products YTD than all of last year, which is encouraging. We expect Energy Storage revenue to surpass $12B this year, and to account for ~15% of total revenue,” the firm stated.
Tesla’s strong Q3 results have helped lift its market capitalization to $1.47 trillion as of writing. The company also teased a new product reveal on X set for October 7, which the firm stated could serve as another near-term catalyst.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a weird price target boost from a notable bear just a day after it announced its strongest quarter in terms of vehicle deliveries and energy deployments.
JPMorgan raised its price target on Tesla shares from $115 to $150. It maintained its ‘Underweight’ rating on the stock.
Despite Tesla reporting 497,099 deliveries, about 12 percent above the 443,000 anticipated from the consensus, JPMorgan is still skeptical that the company can keep up its momentum, stating most of its Q3 strength came from leaning on the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which expired on September 30.
Tesla hits record vehicle deliveries and energy deployments in Q3 2025
The firm said Tesla benefited from a “temporary stronger-than-expected industry-wide pull-forward” as the tax credit expired. It is no secret that consumers flocked to the company this past quarter to take advantage of the credit.
The bump will need to be solidified as the start of a continuing trend of strong vehicle deliveries, the firm said in a note to investors. Analysts said that one quarter of strength was “too soon to declare Tesla as having sustainably returned to growth in its core business.”
JPMorgan does not anticipate Tesla having strong showings with vehicle deliveries after Q4.
There are two distinct things that stick out with this note: the first is the lack of recognition of other parts of Tesla’s business, and the confusion that surrounds future quarters.
JPMorgan did not identify Tesla’s strength in autonomy, energy storage, or robotics, with autonomy and robotics being the main focuses of the company’s future. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving and Robotaxi efforts are incredibly relevant and drive more impact moving forward than vehicle deliveries.
Additionally, the confusion surrounding future delivery numbers in quarters past Q3 is evident.
Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might
Tesla will receive some assistance from deliveries of vehicles that will reach customers in Q4, but will still qualify for the credit under the IRS’s revised rules. It will also likely introduce an affordable model this quarter, which should have a drastic impact on deliveries depending on pricing.
Tesla shares are trading at $422.40 at 2:35 p.m. on the East Coast.
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