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Tesla’s next-generation platform could mean ‘notably’ lower growth rate in 2024

Credit: Tesla/Twitter

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Tesla said in its Q4 2023 Earnings Shareholder Deck that it anticipates its growth rate for 2024 to be lower than in 2023, as it is “between two major growth waves.”

Its next-generation platform is still in development, and the company will work toward bringing it to market, but it could cost near-term growth goals.

Tesla expects to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50 percent, according to what the company said in late 2023:

“We are planning to grow production as quickly as possible in alignment with the 50% CAGR target we began guiding to in early 2021.”

Based on what it produced in 2023 at 1.8 million units, the company would ideally be aiming for about 2.7 million cars this year.

However, it told investors in its Shareholder Deck released on Wednesday that the growth rate it experienced in 2023 should be lower this year as it gears up to offer its next-generation vehicle at Gigafactory Texas.

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Tesla experienced a 35 percent growth rate in production in 2023 from 2022, going from 1,369,611 million cars built to 1,845,985 this year.

However, Tesla is looking to catalyze its growth once again through a new vehicle platform, which will be more affordable and will help the company achieve more sales and production than ever before.

It recognized this with a statement in its Shareholder Deck:

“Our company is currently between two major growth waves: the first one began with the global expansion of the Model 3/Y platform and the next one we believe will be initiated by the global expansion of the next-generation vehicle platform. In 2024, our vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023, as our teams work on the launch of the next-generation vehicle at Gigafactory Texas.”

Tesla is working to bring the platform to market “as quickly as we can, with the plan to start production at Gigafactory Texas. This platform will revolutionize how vehicles are manufactured,” the company also stated.

Tesla ‘Redwood’ EV rumored to come in 2025 imagined in fan rendering

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After experiencing tremendous growth through the Model 3 and Model Y platforms, Tesla has already made an attempt to revamp the all-electric sedan, which has launched globally. There are rumors that the Model Y will also receive this refresh, but it has yet to be confirmed by the company.

Reports today indicated Tesla is already in the process of preparing for the production of its next-generation vehicle. Reuters said that Tesla is already reaching out to suppliers to begin production of the next-gen vehicle in mid-2025.

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Elon Musk teases TSMC as potential Terafab partner

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SpaceX Terafab rendering
SpaceX Terafab rendering

Elon Musk has acknowledged that early discussions with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) could bring the company into his ambitious Terafab semiconductor project, signaling a possible partnership with the world’s leading contract chipmaker.

Musk confirmed that early talks are underway, but as of right now, they are “just discussions.” There is no confirmation of a deal nor dismissal of the possibility of one, leaving open the prospect of one of the largest advanced-chip collaborations under discussion in the U.S.

The report that speculated on potential discussions between Terafab and TSMC comes from Tim Culpan, who outlined a few ways the collaboration could operate. One is TSMC using the project as an “anchor customer” for future facilities in Texas, potentially contributing process expertise, operational know-how, or capacity while Terafab provides capital, long-term purchase commitments, or both.

Tesla and SpaceX jointly developed the Terafab project, with Intel already participating on the tech side. Elon Musk announced the project in March, and it intends to produce more than one terawatt of AI compute capacity annually once fully built.

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Elon Musk’s Terafab project locks up massive new partner

Company statements place the first phase at approximately $16.8 billion in cost, with later filings pointing to a total that could reach well into the tens of billions across multiple stages.

Intel joined the effort in April 2026 and is expected to supply its 14A manufacturing process for the full-scale plant.

Musk has said existing suppliers, including Samsung and TSMC, remain important for near-term needs; Tesla already has production arrangements with Samsung for AI5 and AI6 chips, but that future demand from Optimus robots, Cybercab vehicles, and planned space-based data centers will eventually exceed what the global industry can currently deliver.

Terafab is positioned as the long-term answer to that projected shortfall, and Tesla did something similar during COVID to avoid a chip shortage. This is just a much larger-scale solution.

If the partnership were to materialize, it would add TSMC’s industry-leading strategies to a project that already combines Tesla’s and SpaceX’s capital and offtake with Intel’s process technology. For now, the only public confirmation is Musk’s brief acknowledgement that conversations are occurring.

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Tesla reveals early Robotaxi charging strategy, showing scrappy DNA

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s early strategy for charging units operating within its Robotaxi fleet reveals that the company surely has not lost any of that scrappy DNA that took it from an unlikely success story to the most valuable carmaker in the world.

An observer at a Tesla Supercharger in Austin spotted ten total Robotaxi vehicles arrive: one Cybercab and nine Model Y units. A Tesla employee was waiting at the lot and allowed each unit to park itself; every car that arrived had nobody in it.

Tesla wins FCC approval for wireless Cybercab charging system

The Tesla employee would walk around and plug each car in, adjusting the parking if needed:

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It’s a very interesting strategy, but extremely understandable at this early point in the Robotaxi program. It’s only been out for about 15 months, and Cybercab just entered the fleet in early September.

On top of that, Tesla is still working tirelessly on its wireless charging apparatus, and a new patent was just published regarding that product last week.

However, this is just another example of how Tesla still has plenty of that scrappy DNA leftover from the “production hell” days, when CEO Elon Musk slept on the floor of the factory, employees were working crazy hours, Tesla was building Sprung Structures to build cars in, and the company was tiptoeing on the brink of bankruptcy.

For now, Tesla is utilizing a simple system for recharging its ride-hailing vehicles, and that is a Tesla employee doing it manually until another solution presents itself. Sure, it’s not the most high-tech thing, and it certainly is not what people might have expected at this point in time, but it works, and it’s keeping the entire suite running.

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Tesla Robotaxi expands hours, Musk explains why it’s been a challenge

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is expanding its Robotaxi service hours by pushing the time back by one hour, keeping the ride-hailing service operational until 11 p.m., one hour later than previously.

CEO Elon Musk confirmed the change and offered a specific reason the expansion has been gradual: the system still needs to reliably avoid small pets that are difficult to see after dark, as they commonly blend into the color of the road, especially when they’re grey.

The latest adjustment restores only a fraction of the operating window the service once held. When paid Robotaxi rides began in Austin on June 22, 2025, vehicles ran from 6 a.m. to midnight.

Tesla Robotaxi will be a 24/7 service: here’s when

In September 2025, Tesla lengthened the day to a 2 a.m. close, producing a 20-hour window that stayed in place for most of the following year. By early August of this year, the cutoff had already been pulled back; an August 26 update formalized hours of 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. across Austin and several other markets.

The October move to 11 p.m. therefore leaves the Austin day one hour shorter than the original launch schedule and three hours shorter than the 2025 peak.

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Musk addressed the constraint directly after the announcement. “The main thing we’re trying to solve is making sure that we don’t run over pets when they’re hard to see at night,” he wrote. “Literally trying to avoid grey kittens on grey tarmac in the dark.”

The example points to a low-contrast perception problem in which a small animal can blend into the road surface under limited lighting.

Tesla’s vehicles rely on cameras and neural-network processing rather than lidar; Musk has previously argued that advanced vision software can extract useful information even in low light by analyzing photon counts, but the pet-detection case remains the stated limiter in later hours.

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The modest schedule change arrives alongside faster growth in the purpose-built Cybercab fleet. Texas registration data tracked by observers showed the Austin Cybercab count rising sharply in recent weeks, reaching 169 vehicles after more than 100 were added in a short span.

Tesla has indicated that a broader shift toward 24-hour operation is tied to the upcoming FSD v15 software release expected this month on Robotaxi vehicles. Until that capability is validated for the edge cases Musk described, the company continues to add service time incrementally rather than jumping straight to overnight coverage.

The one-hour extension gives Austin riders a later option for evening trips while the underlying detection work continues.

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