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Tesla Semi battery weight criticisms are rooted in outdated ideas: EV expert
A good number of skeptics critical of battery-electric long-haulers like the Tesla Semi typically argue that the weight of the vehicles’ batteries makes them ineffective against competitors that are powered by diesel or hydrogen. As noted by an electric vehicle veteran and expert recently, however, these ideas are rooted in outdated ideas about battery weight. And if one considers more recent battery tech, electric Class 8 trucks may not only be feasible; they may actually be closer than expected.
In a recent piece on Bulk Distributor Magazine’s November/December 2020 issue, Auke Hoekstra, Senior Advisor for Electric Mobility at the Eindhoven University of Technology, noted that contrary to popular belief, long-haul trucks would not be the last vehicles to become battery-powered. This is in no small part due to the advancement of battery technology. Hoekstra noted that within five years, he believes that “electric trucks will become the logical choice for many bulk transporters” And within 10 years, vehicles like the Tesla Sei will likely dominate new sales.
The stunning progression of battery technology could be seen in just how much batteries have gotten better and cheaper over the years. Hoekstra noted that myths about electric trucks being too heavy were true 20 years ago, but not today. If electric long-haulers existed 20 years ago, they would likely be powered by lead-acid batteries, and assuming a battery size of 1 MWh, such a vehicle will require a pack that will likely weigh about 25 tons. That’s more than the entire payload of the truck. This is, of course, not the case today.
Hoekstra noted that when he wrote his first book about electric vehicles for the Dutch Ministry of Road Transport 13 years ago, lithium-ion batteries had started to emerge. Lithium-ion batteries offered reductions in weight, resulting in a 1 MWh pack weighing only about 10 tons. Today, this is even better, with modern electric cars having batteries that weigh about 5 kg per kWh or 5 tons per MWh. “I expect that with five years, that weight will be down to 3.5 tons. And it doesn’t stop there,” the EV veteran wrote.
Class 8 trucks like the Tesla Semi, which are designed from the ground up to be electric, will likely offer even better weight advantages. Hoekstra estimated that Tesla would see further weight reductions of about 2.5 to 3 tons due to the vehicle’s all-electric platform. “The electric motor is lighter, and you can get rid of the diesel tank and exhaust treatment. Then you place the electric motors between the wheels and lose the differential, driveshaft, and a host of other components,” he wrote.
What’s particularly interesting is that these estimates don’t even take into account the innovations that Tesla unveiled in its Battery Day event. Once Tesla’s 4680 tabless cells and structural battery packs enter the equation, the Semi becomes an even more compelling alternative to diesel-powered trucks. Hoekstra estimated that Tesla’s structural battery packs could save another ton to the Semi’s overall weight, seeing as the battery would practically displace the steel beams that give traditional Class 8 long-haulers their rigidity. With this in mind, the EV veteran noted that “battery weight will soon be a problem of the past.”
There are other advantages to electric trucks that were highlighted by Hoekstra in his piece, such as the cost savings that will result from the use of a fleet of electric trucks. This is something that Tesla has highlighted in the past, with CEO Elon Musk stating during the vehicle’s unveiling that the Semi will vastly undercut diesel-powered rivals when it comes to operating costs. Couple this with the low maintenance requirements of EVs, as well as the fact that batteries now last much longer, and trucks like the Tesla Semi will likely become very attractive options for operators in the very near future.
Tesla analyst Gary Black of The Future Fund claims that the company is making a big mistake getting rid of the Model S and Model X. Instead, he believes another vehicle within the company’s lineup should be discontinued: the Cybertruck.
Black divested The Future Fund from all Tesla holdings last year, but he still covers the stock as an analyst as it falls in the technology and autonomy sectors, which he covers.
In a new comment on Thursday, Black said the Cybertruck should be the vehicle Tesla gets rid of due to the negatives it has drawn to the company.
The Cybertruck is also selling in an underwhelming fashion considering the production capacity Tesla has set aside for it. It’s worth noting it is still the best-selling electric pickup on the market, and it has outlasted other EV truck projects as other manufacturers are receding their efforts.
Black said:
“IMHO it’s a mistake to keep Tesla Cybertruck which has negative brand equity and sold 10,000 units last year, and discontinue S/X which have strong repeat brand loyalty and together sold 30K units and are highly profitable. Why not discontinue CT and covert S/X to be fully autonomous?”
IMHO it’s a mistake to keep $TSLA Cybertruck which has negative brand equity and sold 10,000 units last year, and discontinue S/X which have strong repeat brand loyalty and together sold 30K units and are highly profitable. Why not discontinue CT and covert S/X to be fully…
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) January 29, 2026
On Wednesday, CEO Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla planned to transition Model S and Model X production lines at the Fremont Factory to handle manufacturing efforts of the Optimus Gen 3 robot.
Musk said that it was time to wind down the S and X programs “with an honorable discharge,” also noting that the two cars are not major contributors to Tesla’s mission any longer, as its automotive division is more focused on autonomy, which will be handled by Model 3, Model Y, and Cybercab.
Tesla begins Cybertruck deliveries in a new region for the first time
The news has drawn conflicting perspectives, with many Tesla fans upset about the decision, especially as it ends the production of the largest car in the company’s lineup. Tesla’s focus is on smaller ride-sharing vehicles, especially as the vast majority of rides consist of two or fewer passengers.
The S and X do not fit in these plans.
Nevertheless, the Cybertruck fits in Tesla’s future plans. Musk said the pickup will be needed for the transportation of local goods. Musk also said Cybertruck would be transitioned to an autonomous line.
In a groundbreaking new report from Reuters, SpaceX is reportedly discussing merger possibilities with xAI ahead of the space exploration company’s plans to IPO later this year, in what would be a blockbuster move.
The outlet said it would combine rockets and Starlink satellites, as well as the X social media platform and AI project Grok under one roof. The report cites “a person briefed on the matter and two recent company filings seen by Reuters.”
Musk, nor SpaceX or xAI, have commented on the report, so, as of now, it is unconfirmed.
With that being said, the proposed merger would bring shares of xAI in exchange for shares of SpaceX. Both companies were registered in Nevada to expedite the transaction, according to the report.
On January 21, both entities were registered in Nevada. The report continues:
“One of them, a limited liability company, lists SpaceX and Bret Johnsen, the company’s chief financial officer, as managing members, while the other lists Johnsen as the company’s only officer, the filings show.”
The source also stated that some xAI executives could be given the option to receive cash in lieu of SpaceX stock. No agreement has been reached, nothing has been signed, and the timing and structure, as well as other important details, have not been finalized.
SpaceX is valued at $800 billion and is the most valuable privately held company, while xAI is valued at $230 billion as of November. SpaceX could be going public later this year, as Musk has said as recently as December that the company would offer its stock publicly.
The plans could help move along plans for large-scale data centers in space, something Musk has discussed on several occasions over the past few months.
At the World Economic Forum last week, Musk said:
“It’s a no-brainer for building solar-powered AI data centers in space, because as I mentioned, it’s also very cold in space. The net effect is that the lowest cost place to put AI will be space and that will be true within two to three years, three at the latest.”
He also said on X that “the most important thing in the next 3-4 years is data centers in space.”
If the report is true and the two companies end up coming together, it would not be the first time Musk’s companies have ended up coming together. He used Tesla stock to purchase SolarCity back in 2016. Last year, X became part of xAI in a share swap.
Tesla has announced it has hit a major milestone with Full Self-Driving subscriptions, shortly after it said it would exclusively offer the suite without the option to purchase it outright.
Tesla announced on Wednesday during its Q4 Earnings Call for 2025 that it had officially eclipsed the one million subscription mark for its Full Self-Driving suite. This represented a 38 percent increase year-over-year.
This is up from the roughly 800,000 active subscriptions it reported last year. The company has seen significant increases in FSD adoption over the past few years, as in 2021, it reported just 400,000. In 2022, it was up to 500,000 and, one year later, it had eclipsed 600,000.
NEWS: For the first time, Tesla has revealed how many people are subscribed or have purchased FSD (Supervised).
Active FSD Subscriptions:
• 2025: 1.1 million
• 2024: 800K
• 2023: 600K
• 2022: 500K
• 2021: 400K pic.twitter.com/KVtnyANWcs— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) January 28, 2026
In mid-January, CEO Elon Musk announced that the company would transition away from giving the option to purchase the Full Self-Driving suite outright, opting for the subscription program exclusively.
Musk said on X:
“Tesla will stop selling FSD after Feb 14. FSD will only be available as a monthly subscription thereafter.”
The move intends to streamline the Full Self-Driving purchase option, and gives Tesla more control over its revenue, and closes off the ability to buy it outright for a bargain when Musk has said its value could be close to $100,000 when it reaches full autonomy.
It also caters to Musk’s newest compensation package. One tranche requires Tesla to achieve 10 million active FSD subscriptions, and now that it has reached one million, it is already seeing some growth.
The strategy that Tesla will use to achieve this lofty goal is still under wraps. The most ideal solution would be to offer a less expensive version of the suite, which is not likely considering the company is increasing its capabilities, and it is becoming more robust.
Tesla is shifting FSD to a subscription-only model, confirms Elon Musk
Currently, Tesla’s FSD subscription price is $99 per month, but Musk said this price will increase, which seems counterintuitive to its goal of increasing the take rate. With that being said, it will be interesting to see what Tesla does to navigate growth while offering a robust FSD suite.
Tesla analyst claims another vehicle, not Model S and X, should be discontinued
SpaceX reportedly discussing merger with xAI ahead of blockbuster IPO
