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Tesla Semi production rumors swirl as frequent sightings up the ante on expectations

YouTube | Cory Draper

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Rumors surrounding the Tesla Semi are plentiful in this day and age, especially as sightings of the company’s commercial vehicle are becoming more frequent. Expectations for the new Semi are high already, and Tesla aims to deliver the truck in a timely fashion after several delays.

The new Semi has been spotted numerous times over the past week, hinting toward ongoing testing before Tesla starts volume production of the massive, all-electric commercial vehicle. Less than two weeks after Tesla’s Q4 2020 Earnings Call, where CEO Elon Musk and others detailed the ongoing offensive to develop the vehicle, the Semi is being spotted by people on public roads. Although Musk stated battery constraint is the hold-up in the Semi’s production, it isn’t stopping the company from testing several new truck builds.

Speculation regarding when Tesla will finally begin volume production is growing, and more rumors surrounding the initial deliveries to pre-orderers appear on what seems like a daily basis. However, the big bottleneck is batteries, and Tesla plans to combat this issue with wide-scale cell production and purchasing. The real question is, how many cells will be “enough?”

Elon Musk’s Earnings Call Comments

Musk, who stated last year that it was time for Tesla to enter volume production of the Semi, had a different tune during the Q4 2020 Earnings Call on January 27th. Battery cell constraint is a major bottleneck in starting the Semi production, as fulfilling the number of orders it has would likely inhibit Tesla from being able to produce its mass-market passenger vehicles, like the Model 3 and Model Y.

Tesla has recently started producing its own battery cells at a plant that sits adjacent to its main production facility in Fremont, California. Known as the “Kato Road Facility,” Tesla is building its new 4680 cells there, a battery that Tesla claims will cut the cost of its vehicles massively, putting it on a crash course to reach price parity with gas-powered vehicles. The Semi will require significantly more cells than any other Tesla vehicle to date, a problem that the company is aiming to solve by producing its own cells and buying additional ones from third-party suppliers like Panasonic.

Tesla’s 4680 Kato Rd. facility has a top 10 capacity, and it’s not even close to finished

During the Earnings Call, Musk said:

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“Prototypes are easy. Scaling production is very hard. So a big part of the reason — the main reason we have not accelerated new products is — like, for example, Tesla Semi is that we simply don’t happen our cells group. We — this — if we were to make the Semi like right now, which we could easily go into production with the Semi, but we would not have enough to cells built for it right now. We will have cells group in ourselves for Semi when we are producing the 4680 volume. But for example, Semi would use typically five times the number of cells that a car would use, but it would not sell for five times what a car would sell for. So it kind of doesn’t make — it would not make sense for us to do the Semi right now, but it will absolutely make sense for us to do it as soon as we can address the cell production constraint. The same would go for that.”

Effectively, Musk explained that it makes more fiscal sense to focus on the mass-market consumer products for right now. When the Kato Rd. Facility begins a massive production of the 4680 cells, Tesla can begin the Semi production efforts, but that doesn’t mean prototypes aren’t on the road now.

New Sightings

Following a sighting by The Kilowatts last week, two new sightings of the Semi have surfaced of the all-white Tesla commercial vehicle.

New Tesla Semi with updated windows, door handles, and tail lights spotted in Sacramento

One video from Cory Draper on YouTube shows a four-and-a-half-minute-long walk around of the Semi, getting a close-up look at the vehicle. One of the most striking features is the size of the power cell, as Draper estimates it is between four and five feet in length. A massive truck requires a massive power source, and the Semi’s sizeable battery storage compartment will drive the truck’s 300 or 500-mile range. Another video from Ivaylo Tzintzarsky shows the power cell from the opposite side.

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There are also numerous sensors that can be seen on the Semi, especially in Draper’s video. The top of the windshield is outfitted with at least five sensors that will help with the autonomous driving functionality of the Tesla Semi. Autonomy could help with the evolution of the trucking industry, as many drivers are currently restricted to 11 hours of travel per day, according to the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA).

Fuel savings alone could pay for a Tesla Semi, as the company estimates it will save at least $200,000. Combined with superior aerodynamic performance and, a quad-motor powertrain, and a low center of gravity to prevent rollovers, the Tesla Semi has the potential to revolutionize the trucking industry forever. The question is: When will it begin production, and how long until Tesla can produce the 4680 cells in mass quantities to solve the constraint issue?

Watch the two newest sightings of the Semi below. Let us know what you think in the comments!

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Tesla analyst sees Full Self-Driving adoption rates skyrocketing: here’s why

“You’ll see increased adoption as people are exposed to it. I’ve been behind the wheel of several of these and the different iterations of FSD, and it is getting better and better. It’s something when people experience it, they will be much more comfortable utilizing FSD and paying for it.”

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tesla interior operating on full self driving
Credit: TESLARATI

Tesla analyst Stephen Gengaro of Stifel sees Full Self-Driving adoption rates skyrocketing, and he believes more and more people will commit to paying for the full suite or the subscription service after they try it.

Full Self-Driving is Tesla’s Level 2 advanced driver assistance suite (ADAS), and is one of the most robust on the market. Over time, the suite gets better as the company accumulates data from every mile driven by its fleet of vehicles, which has swelled to over five million cars sold.

The suite features a variety of advanced driving techniques that many others cannot do. It is not your typical Traffic-Aware Cruise Control (TACC) and Lane Keeping ADAS system. Instead, it can handle nearly every possible driving scenario out there.

It still requires the driver to pay attention and ultimately assume responsibility for the vehicle, but their hands are not required to be on the steering wheel.

It is overwhelmingly impressive, and as a personal user of the FSD suite on a daily basis, I have my complaints, but overall, there are very few things it does incorrectly.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving (Supervised) v14.1.7 real-world drive and review

Gengaro, who increased his Tesla price target to $508 yesterday, said in an interview with CNBC that adoption rates of FSD will increase over the coming years as more people try it for themselves.

At first, it is tough to feel comfortable with your car literally driving you around. Then, it becomes second nature.

Gengaro said:

“You’ll see increased adoption as people are exposed to it. I’ve been behind the wheel of several of these and the different iterations of FSD, and it is getting better and better. It’s something when people experience it, they will be much more comfortable utilizing FSD and paying for it.”

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Tesla Full Self-Driving take rates also have to increase as part of CEO Elon Musk’s recently approved compensation package, as one tranche requires ten million active subscriptions in order to win that portion of the package.

The company also said in the Q3 2025 Earnings Call in October that only 12 percent of the current ownership fleet are paid customers of Full Self-Driving, something the company wants to increase considerably moving forward.

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Tesla scores major court win as judge rejects race bias class action

The ruling means the 2017 lawsuit cannot proceed as a class action because plaintiff attorneys were unable to secure testimony commitments from at least 200 workers.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla scored a significant legal victory in California after a state judge reversed a class certification in a high-profile race harassment case involving 6,000 Black workers at its Fremont plant. The ruling means the 2017 lawsuit cannot proceed as a class action because plaintiff attorneys were unable to secure testimony commitments from at least 200 workers ahead of a 2026 trial, a threshold the judge viewed as necessary to reliably represent the full group.

No class action

In a late-Friday order, California Superior Court Judge Peter Borkon concluded that the suit could not remain a class action, stating he could not confidently apply the experiences of a much smaller group of testifying workers to thousands of potential class members. His ruling reverses a 2024 decision by a different judge who had certified the case under the belief that a trial of that size would be manageable, as noted in a Reuters report.

The lawsuit was originally filed by former assembly-line worker Marcus Vaughn, who alleged that Black employees at Tesla’s Fremont factory were exposed to various forms of racially hostile conduct, including slurs, graffiti, and instances of disturbing objects appearing in work areas. Tesla has previously said it does not tolerate harassment and has removed employees found responsible for misconduct. Neither Tesla nor the plaintiffs’ legal team immediately commented on the latest ruling.

Tesla’s legal challenges

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While the decertification narrows the scope of this particular case, Tesla still faces additional litigation over similar allegations. A separate trial involving related claims brought by a California state civil rights agency is scheduled just two months after the now-vacated class trial date. The company is also contending with federal race discrimination claims filed by the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, alongside several individual lawsuits it has already resolved.

For now, the reversal removes the large-scale exposure Tesla would have faced in a unified class trial, shifting the dispute back to individual claims rather than a single mass action. The case is Vaughn v. Tesla, filed in Alameda County Superior Court.

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Tesla Holiday Update is incoming, and the wishlist is Merry and Bright

There are a handful of big wishes, and we’ve seen a lot of different requests out there based on what owners are saying on social media. Nevertheless, what Tesla should bring and what Tesla will bring are two different things.

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Tesla’s Holiday Update is going to be on its way soon, and although we have no idea what the company is planning to implement into vehicles with the 2025 iteration.

However, the wishlist is extensive, and owners are hoping to get a vast array of new features, both useful and artificial. That’s the fun thing about owning a Tesla — not everything is necessary, and it’s okay for your car to be fun.

There are a handful of big wishes, and we’ve seen a lot of different requests out there based on what owners are saying on social media. Nevertheless, what Tesla should bring and what Tesla will bring are two different things.

In past years, Tesla has brought both useful things and fun things with the Holiday Update. The Custom Lock Sound, new Light Shows, and even High Fidelity Park Assist have all come in past updates, among many other things. But for 2025, people want even more, and here’s what we have seen most frequently thus far:

More Streaming Platforms

This is a personal request of ours, and it’s something that we feel is long overdue.

Sure, Netflix, Disney+, and Hulu are all great — but there’s a lot of meat left on that bone. HBOMax, Paramount+, and even YouTube TV would be a great option for those of us who have subscriptions and want to watch Live Events while Supercharging or eating in our cars.

The fact that Tesla has not added more platforms to its in-car Theater in a few years has been, dare I say, disappointing?

Full Self-Driving for Europe

This is something not even Santa can help with. Although his Elves are known for their high productivity, we’re not even sure they could convince European regulators to open the door for FSD’s entrance into the market.

Tesla deploys Unsupervised FSD in Europe for the first time—with a twist

FSD is definitely capable of handling European driving conditions, but regulators are truly dragging their feet through the mud with the approval process. Tesla has tested FSD in several countries in Europe, but nothing has been set in stone yet.

Deeper Grok Integration

Many owners have said something about how Grok is truly not super in-tune with the vehicles. This is something any owner will experience.

It seems Grok should be capable of handling all in-car requests; everything from changing the A/C to a specific temperature to adding a stop within the Navigation should be handled by Grok.

Instead, Grok cannot handle those things currently. You have to speak to the car itself using the microphone button on the steering wheel.

Interestingly, some vehicles already have the Grok logo replacing the microphone. It is likely the most realistic request of all.

‘Learn’ Mode for Full Self-Driving Arrival Options

Although it is great for public destinations, FSD still does not allow you to choose a set parking spot at your residence. It also does not allow you to choose preferences for parking in large parking lots.

Renters, and even those who live in purchased townhomes, often have assigned parking spots. Full Self-Driving v14 has done a great job of doing half the work, but there have been too many times when I’ve arrived home, the car pulls me into a spot, and I’m forced to manually back out and park in my assigned space.

Many people also do not like to park toward the entrance of a store, me included. Parking away from the front of a store eliminates parking congestion and usually is a safer bet for your vehicle to keep from being dinged by careless drivers who swing their doors open.

Navigation Adjustments

Sometimes you don’t want to turn left on the street the navigation chooses. Maybe you want to go a block down and check out that new Portuguese restaurant that just opened on the way to your next destination.

This is only possible currently by inputting a waypoint that would take you that way. Instead, the center screen could be opened, and the driver should be able to select an alternative route by simply touching a street they’d rather travel on.

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