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Tesla Semi production rumors swirl as frequent sightings up the ante on expectations

YouTube | Cory Draper

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Rumors surrounding the Tesla Semi are plentiful in this day and age, especially as sightings of the company’s commercial vehicle are becoming more frequent. Expectations for the new Semi are high already, and Tesla aims to deliver the truck in a timely fashion after several delays.

The new Semi has been spotted numerous times over the past week, hinting toward ongoing testing before Tesla starts volume production of the massive, all-electric commercial vehicle. Less than two weeks after Tesla’s Q4 2020 Earnings Call, where CEO Elon Musk and others detailed the ongoing offensive to develop the vehicle, the Semi is being spotted by people on public roads. Although Musk stated battery constraint is the hold-up in the Semi’s production, it isn’t stopping the company from testing several new truck builds.

Speculation regarding when Tesla will finally begin volume production is growing, and more rumors surrounding the initial deliveries to pre-orderers appear on what seems like a daily basis. However, the big bottleneck is batteries, and Tesla plans to combat this issue with wide-scale cell production and purchasing. The real question is, how many cells will be “enough?”

Elon Musk’s Earnings Call Comments

Musk, who stated last year that it was time for Tesla to enter volume production of the Semi, had a different tune during the Q4 2020 Earnings Call on January 27th. Battery cell constraint is a major bottleneck in starting the Semi production, as fulfilling the number of orders it has would likely inhibit Tesla from being able to produce its mass-market passenger vehicles, like the Model 3 and Model Y.

Tesla has recently started producing its own battery cells at a plant that sits adjacent to its main production facility in Fremont, California. Known as the “Kato Road Facility,” Tesla is building its new 4680 cells there, a battery that Tesla claims will cut the cost of its vehicles massively, putting it on a crash course to reach price parity with gas-powered vehicles. The Semi will require significantly more cells than any other Tesla vehicle to date, a problem that the company is aiming to solve by producing its own cells and buying additional ones from third-party suppliers like Panasonic.

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Tesla’s 4680 Kato Rd. facility has a top 10 capacity, and it’s not even close to finished

During the Earnings Call, Musk said:

“Prototypes are easy. Scaling production is very hard. So a big part of the reason — the main reason we have not accelerated new products is — like, for example, Tesla Semi is that we simply don’t happen our cells group. We — this — if we were to make the Semi like right now, which we could easily go into production with the Semi, but we would not have enough to cells built for it right now. We will have cells group in ourselves for Semi when we are producing the 4680 volume. But for example, Semi would use typically five times the number of cells that a car would use, but it would not sell for five times what a car would sell for. So it kind of doesn’t make — it would not make sense for us to do the Semi right now, but it will absolutely make sense for us to do it as soon as we can address the cell production constraint. The same would go for that.”

Effectively, Musk explained that it makes more fiscal sense to focus on the mass-market consumer products for right now. When the Kato Rd. Facility begins a massive production of the 4680 cells, Tesla can begin the Semi production efforts, but that doesn’t mean prototypes aren’t on the road now.

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New Sightings

Following a sighting by The Kilowatts last week, two new sightings of the Semi have surfaced of the all-white Tesla commercial vehicle.

New Tesla Semi with updated windows, door handles, and tail lights spotted in Sacramento

One video from Cory Draper on YouTube shows a four-and-a-half-minute-long walk around of the Semi, getting a close-up look at the vehicle. One of the most striking features is the size of the power cell, as Draper estimates it is between four and five feet in length. A massive truck requires a massive power source, and the Semi’s sizeable battery storage compartment will drive the truck’s 300 or 500-mile range. Another video from Ivaylo Tzintzarsky shows the power cell from the opposite side.

There are also numerous sensors that can be seen on the Semi, especially in Draper’s video. The top of the windshield is outfitted with at least five sensors that will help with the autonomous driving functionality of the Tesla Semi. Autonomy could help with the evolution of the trucking industry, as many drivers are currently restricted to 11 hours of travel per day, according to the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA).

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Fuel savings alone could pay for a Tesla Semi, as the company estimates it will save at least $200,000. Combined with superior aerodynamic performance and, a quad-motor powertrain, and a low center of gravity to prevent rollovers, the Tesla Semi has the potential to revolutionize the trucking industry forever. The question is: When will it begin production, and how long until Tesla can produce the 4680 cells in mass quantities to solve the constraint issue?

Watch the two newest sightings of the Semi below. Let us know what you think in the comments!

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Tesla bolsters App with new safety, insurance, and storage features

The Tesla Smartphone App is one of the biggest and best features and advantages owners have. Everything from moving the vehicle with Summon, to getting Navigation sent to the car, to preconditioning the cabin can be done with the Tesla App.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is bolstering its smartphone App with a series of new features to streamline operations for owners. The new additions include fixes to safety, its in-house insurance offering, and storage management for Dashcam clips.

The Tesla Smartphone App is one of the biggest and best features and advantages owners have. Everything from moving the vehicle with Summon, to getting Navigation sent to the car, to preconditioning the cabin can be done with the Tesla App.

But in classic Tesla fashion, the company is aiming to improve the offerings of the app, and it is doing so with a handful of new features. They were first discovered by Tesla App Updates.

Tesla Insurance – Safety Score 3.0

This is truly part of the Spring 2026 Update, but Tesla has now given more transparency on how FSD has saved people money on their premiums.

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Tesla intertwines FSD with in-house Insurance for attractive incentive

Additionally, Tesla is now automatically awarding a Safety Score of 100 for every mile traveled on Full Self-Driving (Supervised).

Update Tracking

Updates traditionally appear on the App or on the Center Touchscreen in the car. There is nothing better than seeing that Green Arrow at the top of the screen, or opening your app and seeing that there is a Software Update available.

Now, there will be no need to manually check the app and initiate the download. Tesla is enabling a new feature that will automatically download updates for you.

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Storage Management

Your USB drive can now be remotely formatted, and old Dashcam clips can be deleted straight from the phone. When you record a lot of things using the Dashcam feature, that storage fills up pretty quickly.

Now, manually deleting the Dashcam videos is easier than ever.

Trailer Light Test

This is perhaps the coolest and most crucial addition to the Tesla App, as those who tow and haul will now be able to trigger a diagnostic light sequence from the app while standing behind your trailer to ensure the brake lights work.

Verifying your trailer lights are connected properly and operating normally and as intended is normally a massive hassle.

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Now, a new trigger will be available to initiate a diagnostic light sequence directly from your phone.

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Tesla Robotaxi-only Superchargers are starting to appear

For Tesla, these Robotaxi-only Superchargers represent more than convenient parking spots. They are the first bricks in a vertically integrated autonomy platform—vehicles, energy, and software working in seamless concert. 

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is starting to build out Robotaxi-only Superchargers as the company is truly leaning on its Full Self-Driving and autonomy efforts to solve passenger travel.

Last week, the company filed pre-permits in Arizona’s East Valley for two dedicated, non-public charging sites stocked with next-generation V4 Superchargers. The filings mark the first visible evidence of purpose-built infrastructure exclusively for autonomous Tesla vehicles, as they state they are not for public use.

In Chandler, Tesla plans to install 56 V4 stalls on an industrial parcel along South Roosevelt Avenue. Site documents describe a high-capacity setup supported by new SRP transformers, switching cabinets, and upgrades to existing underground lines.

A second site in Mesa, located at 5349 E Main Street in another industrial zone, carries the same private-use designation. Both locations sit well away from public roads and customer traffic, ensuring the chargers serve only Tesla’s internal fleet.

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The sites were spotted by Supercharger observer MarcoRP.

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Phoenix’s East Valley offers an ideal launchpad for Robotaxi Supercharging: the location has a clean, grid-like street layout and year-round mild weather that minimizes camera degradation. Additionally, Arizona has welcomed self-driving pilots since Waymo’s early days.

By securing private depots now, Tesla can optimize charging cycles, reduce downtime, and maintain full control over vehicle hygiene and security, critical factors for high-utilization Robotaxi operations.

The type of Supercharger is telling as well, as they are V4, Tesla’s fastest and most efficient buildout.

V4 stalls deliver faster power and support bidirectional charging, features that will let idle Robotaxis feed energy back to the grid during off-peak hours. Because the sites are closed to the public, Tesla avoids congestion, vandalism risks, and the scheduling conflicts that plague shared stations.

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The timing is telling. With unsupervised Full Self-Driving hardware already rolling out across the lineup and Cybercab production targets looming, Tesla is shifting from vehicle development to ecosystem readiness.

Charging infrastructure has historically been the gating factor for ride-hailing scale; building it ahead of the vehicles signals confidence that regulatory and technical hurdles are nearing resolution.

Tesla has been spotted testing Cybercab units in Arizona over the past few months, as well.

Interestingly, the permits show V4 Superchargers in the plans, although Cybercab will likely utilize wireless charging:

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Tesla Cybercab spotted with interesting charging solution, stimulating discussion

For Tesla, these Robotaxi-only Superchargers represent more than convenient parking spots. They are the first bricks in a vertically integrated autonomy platform—vehicles, energy, and software working in seamless concert.

It appears Tesla is preparing to begin building out Robotaxi-only Superchargers to avoid the congestion and keep its autonomous fleet charged up to get ride-hailers to their destinations.

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ARK’s SpaceX IPO Guide makes a compelling case on why $1.75T may not be the ceiling

ARK Invest breaks down six reasons SpaceX’s $1.75 trillion IPO valuation may be justified.

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ARK Invest, which holds SpaceX as its largest Venture Fund position at 17% of net assets, has published a detailed investor guide to why a SpaceX IPO may be grounded in a $1.75 trillion target valuation.

The financial case starts with Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet constellation, which has surpassed 10 million active subscribers globally as of early 2026, with 2026 revenue projected to exceed $20 billion. ARK’s research puts the total satellite connectivity market opportunity at roughly $160 billion annually at scale, and Starlink is adding customers faster than any telecom network in history. That growth alone would justify a substantial valuation.

Additionally,  ARK notes that SpaceX has reduced the cost per kilogram to orbit from roughly $15,600 in 2008 to under $1,000 today through reusable Falcon 9 hardware. A fully operational Starship targeting sub-$100 per kilogram would represent a significant cost decline and open markets that do not currently exist. SpaceX executed a staggering 165 missions in 2025 and now accounts for approximately 85% of all global orbital launches. That infrastructure position took decades to build and would be nearly impossible to replicate at comparable cost.

SpaceX officially acquires xAI, merging rockets with AI expertise

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The February 2026 merger with xAI added a layer to the valuation that straightforward financial models struggle to capture. ARK argues that at sub-$100 launch costs, orbital data centers could deliver compute roughly 25% cheaper than ground-based alternatives, without power grid delays, permitting friction, or land constraints. Musk has stated a goal of deploying 100 gigawatts of AI computing capacity per year from orbit.

The $1.75 trillion figure itself is not a conventional earnings multiple. At roughly 95x trailing revenue, it prices in Starlink’s adoption curve, Starship’s cost trajectory, and the orbital compute thesis together. The public S-1 prospectus, due at least 15 days before the June roadshow, will give investors their first complete look at the financials to test those assumptions. ARK’s position is that the track record earns the benefit of the doubt. Fully reusable rockets were considered unrealistic for years. Starlink was considered financially unviable. Both happened on timelines that surprised skeptics.

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