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Tesla Semi production rumors swirl as frequent sightings up the ante on expectations

YouTube | Cory Draper

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Rumors surrounding the Tesla Semi are plentiful in this day and age, especially as sightings of the company’s commercial vehicle are becoming more frequent. Expectations for the new Semi are high already, and Tesla aims to deliver the truck in a timely fashion after several delays.

The new Semi has been spotted numerous times over the past week, hinting toward ongoing testing before Tesla starts volume production of the massive, all-electric commercial vehicle. Less than two weeks after Tesla’s Q4 2020 Earnings Call, where CEO Elon Musk and others detailed the ongoing offensive to develop the vehicle, the Semi is being spotted by people on public roads. Although Musk stated battery constraint is the hold-up in the Semi’s production, it isn’t stopping the company from testing several new truck builds.

Speculation regarding when Tesla will finally begin volume production is growing, and more rumors surrounding the initial deliveries to pre-orderers appear on what seems like a daily basis. However, the big bottleneck is batteries, and Tesla plans to combat this issue with wide-scale cell production and purchasing. The real question is, how many cells will be “enough?”

Elon Musk’s Earnings Call Comments

Musk, who stated last year that it was time for Tesla to enter volume production of the Semi, had a different tune during the Q4 2020 Earnings Call on January 27th. Battery cell constraint is a major bottleneck in starting the Semi production, as fulfilling the number of orders it has would likely inhibit Tesla from being able to produce its mass-market passenger vehicles, like the Model 3 and Model Y.

Tesla has recently started producing its own battery cells at a plant that sits adjacent to its main production facility in Fremont, California. Known as the “Kato Road Facility,” Tesla is building its new 4680 cells there, a battery that Tesla claims will cut the cost of its vehicles massively, putting it on a crash course to reach price parity with gas-powered vehicles. The Semi will require significantly more cells than any other Tesla vehicle to date, a problem that the company is aiming to solve by producing its own cells and buying additional ones from third-party suppliers like Panasonic.

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Tesla’s 4680 Kato Rd. facility has a top 10 capacity, and it’s not even close to finished

During the Earnings Call, Musk said:

“Prototypes are easy. Scaling production is very hard. So a big part of the reason — the main reason we have not accelerated new products is — like, for example, Tesla Semi is that we simply don’t happen our cells group. We — this — if we were to make the Semi like right now, which we could easily go into production with the Semi, but we would not have enough to cells built for it right now. We will have cells group in ourselves for Semi when we are producing the 4680 volume. But for example, Semi would use typically five times the number of cells that a car would use, but it would not sell for five times what a car would sell for. So it kind of doesn’t make — it would not make sense for us to do the Semi right now, but it will absolutely make sense for us to do it as soon as we can address the cell production constraint. The same would go for that.”

Effectively, Musk explained that it makes more fiscal sense to focus on the mass-market consumer products for right now. When the Kato Rd. Facility begins a massive production of the 4680 cells, Tesla can begin the Semi production efforts, but that doesn’t mean prototypes aren’t on the road now.

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New Sightings

Following a sighting by The Kilowatts last week, two new sightings of the Semi have surfaced of the all-white Tesla commercial vehicle.

New Tesla Semi with updated windows, door handles, and tail lights spotted in Sacramento

One video from Cory Draper on YouTube shows a four-and-a-half-minute-long walk around of the Semi, getting a close-up look at the vehicle. One of the most striking features is the size of the power cell, as Draper estimates it is between four and five feet in length. A massive truck requires a massive power source, and the Semi’s sizeable battery storage compartment will drive the truck’s 300 or 500-mile range. Another video from Ivaylo Tzintzarsky shows the power cell from the opposite side.

There are also numerous sensors that can be seen on the Semi, especially in Draper’s video. The top of the windshield is outfitted with at least five sensors that will help with the autonomous driving functionality of the Tesla Semi. Autonomy could help with the evolution of the trucking industry, as many drivers are currently restricted to 11 hours of travel per day, according to the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA).

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Fuel savings alone could pay for a Tesla Semi, as the company estimates it will save at least $200,000. Combined with superior aerodynamic performance and, a quad-motor powertrain, and a low center of gravity to prevent rollovers, the Tesla Semi has the potential to revolutionize the trucking industry forever. The question is: When will it begin production, and how long until Tesla can produce the 4680 cells in mass quantities to solve the constraint issue?

Watch the two newest sightings of the Semi below. Let us know what you think in the comments!

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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xAI’s Grok approved for Pentagon classified systems: report

Under the agreement, Grok can be deployed in systems handling classified intelligence analysis, weapons development, and battlefield operations. 

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Credit: xAI

Elon Musk’s xAI has signed an agreement with the United States Department of Defense (DoD) to allow Grok to be used in classified military systems.

Previously, Anthropic’s Claude had been the only AI system approved for the most sensitive military work, but a dispute over usage safeguards has reportedly prompted the Pentagon to broaden its options, as noted in a report from Axios.

Under the agreement, Grok can be deployed in systems handling classified intelligence analysis, weapons development, and battlefield operations. 

The publication reported that xAI agreed to the Pentagon’s requirement that its technology be usable for “all lawful purposes,” a standard Anthropic has reportedly resisted due to alleged ethical restrictions tied to mass surveillance and autonomous weapons use.

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Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is scheduled to meet with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei in what sources expect to be a tense meeting, with the publication hinting that the Pentagon could designate Anthropic a “supply chain risk” if the company does not lift its safeguards. 

Axios stated that replacing Claude fully might be technically challenging even if xAI or other alternative AI systems take its place. That being said, other AI systems are already in use by the DoD. 

Grok already operates in the Pentagon’s unclassified systems alongside Google’s Gemini and OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Google is reportedly close to an agreement that will result in Gemini being used for classified use, while OpenAI’s progress toward classified deployment is described as slower but still feasible. 

The publication noted that the Pentagon continues talks with several AI companies as it prepares for potential changes in classified AI sourcing.

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Elon Musk denies Starlink’s price cuts are due to Amazon Kuiper

“This has nothing to do with Kuiper, we’re just trying to make Starlink more affordable to a broader audience,” Musk wrote in a post on X.

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Credit: Starlink

Elon Musk has pushed back on claims that Starlink’s recent price reductions are tied to Amazon’s Kuiper project.

In a post on X, Musk responded directly to a report suggesting that Starlink was cutting prices and offering free hardware to partners ahead of a planned IPO and increased competition from Kuiper.

“This has nothing to do with Kuiper, we’re just trying to make Starlink more affordable to a broader audience,” Musk wrote in a post on X. “The lower the cost, the more Starlink can be used by people who don’t have much money, especially in the developing world.”

The speculation originated from a post summarizing a report from The Information, which ran with the headline “SpaceX’s Starlink Makes Land Grab as Amazon Threat Looms.” The report stated that SpaceX is aggressively cutting prices and giving free hardware to distribution partners, which was interpreted as a reaction to Amazon’s Kuiper’s upcoming rollout and possible IPO.

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In a way, Musk’s comments could be quite accurate considering Starlink’s current scale. The constellation currently has more than 9,700 satellites in operation today, making it by far the largest satellite broadband network in operation. It has also managed to grow its user base to 10 million active customers across more than 150 countries worldwide. 

Amazon’s Kuiper, by comparison, has launched approximately 211 satellites to date, as per data from SatelliteMap.Space, some of which were launched by SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket. Starlink surpassed that number in early January 2020, during the early buildout of its first-generation network.

Lower pricing also aligns with Starlink’s broader expansion strategy. SpaceX continues to deploy satellites at a rapid pace using Falcon 9, and future launches aboard Starship are expected to significantly accelerate the constellation’s growth. A larger network improves capacity and global coverage, which can support a broader customer base.

In that context, price reductions can be viewed as a way to match expanding supply with growing demand. Musk’s companies have historically used aggressive pricing strategies to drive adoption at scale, particularly when vertical integration allows costs to decline over time.

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Tesla Giga Berlin makes a statement of solidarity amid IG Metall conflict

The display comes as tensions between Tesla and IG Metall continue to escalate.

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Creidt: Andre Thierig/X

Tesla Giga Berlin is sending a strong message of solidarity amid its ongoing legal dispute with German union IG Metall.

In a post on social media platform X, Giga Berlin plant manager André Thierig shared an image of the facility’s lobby covered with a large banner that reads: “Progress. Innovation. Success.” He added that the slogan reflects what the facility has stood for since Day One.

“Our lobby at Giga Berlin covered in a huge banner these days. Progress. Innovation. Success – this is what we stand for since we started production in 2022 and how we will go into our future!” Thierig wrote in his post on X. 

The display comes as tensions between Tesla and IG Metall continue to escalate.

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The dispute began after Tesla accused a union representative of secretly recording a works council meeting at Giga Berlin. Tesla stated that it filed a criminal complaint after the alleged incident. Police later confirmed they had seized a computer belonging to an IG Metall member as part of their investigation.

“What has happened today at Giga Berlin is truly beyond words! An external union representative from IG Metall attended a works council meeting. For unknown reasons he recorded the internal meeting and was caught in action! We obviously called police and filed a criminal complaint!” Thierig wrote on X at the time

IG Metall denied the accusation and characterized Tesla’s move as an election tactic ahead of upcoming works council elections. The union subsequently filed a defamation complaint against Thierig. Authorities later confirmed that an investigation had been opened in connection with the matter.

Giga Berlin began production in 2022 and has since become one of Tesla’s key European manufacturing hubs, producing the Model Y, the company’s best-selling vehicle. The facility has expanded capacity over the past years despite environmental protests, labor disputes, and regulatory scrutiny.

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