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Tesla Semi production rumors swirl as frequent sightings up the ante on expectations

YouTube | Cory Draper

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Rumors surrounding the Tesla Semi are plentiful in this day and age, especially as sightings of the company’s commercial vehicle are becoming more frequent. Expectations for the new Semi are high already, and Tesla aims to deliver the truck in a timely fashion after several delays.

The new Semi has been spotted numerous times over the past week, hinting toward ongoing testing before Tesla starts volume production of the massive, all-electric commercial vehicle. Less than two weeks after Tesla’s Q4 2020 Earnings Call, where CEO Elon Musk and others detailed the ongoing offensive to develop the vehicle, the Semi is being spotted by people on public roads. Although Musk stated battery constraint is the hold-up in the Semi’s production, it isn’t stopping the company from testing several new truck builds.

Speculation regarding when Tesla will finally begin volume production is growing, and more rumors surrounding the initial deliveries to pre-orderers appear on what seems like a daily basis. However, the big bottleneck is batteries, and Tesla plans to combat this issue with wide-scale cell production and purchasing. The real question is, how many cells will be “enough?”

Elon Musk’s Earnings Call Comments

Musk, who stated last year that it was time for Tesla to enter volume production of the Semi, had a different tune during the Q4 2020 Earnings Call on January 27th. Battery cell constraint is a major bottleneck in starting the Semi production, as fulfilling the number of orders it has would likely inhibit Tesla from being able to produce its mass-market passenger vehicles, like the Model 3 and Model Y.

Tesla has recently started producing its own battery cells at a plant that sits adjacent to its main production facility in Fremont, California. Known as the “Kato Road Facility,” Tesla is building its new 4680 cells there, a battery that Tesla claims will cut the cost of its vehicles massively, putting it on a crash course to reach price parity with gas-powered vehicles. The Semi will require significantly more cells than any other Tesla vehicle to date, a problem that the company is aiming to solve by producing its own cells and buying additional ones from third-party suppliers like Panasonic.

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Tesla’s 4680 Kato Rd. facility has a top 10 capacity, and it’s not even close to finished

During the Earnings Call, Musk said:

“Prototypes are easy. Scaling production is very hard. So a big part of the reason — the main reason we have not accelerated new products is — like, for example, Tesla Semi is that we simply don’t happen our cells group. We — this — if we were to make the Semi like right now, which we could easily go into production with the Semi, but we would not have enough to cells built for it right now. We will have cells group in ourselves for Semi when we are producing the 4680 volume. But for example, Semi would use typically five times the number of cells that a car would use, but it would not sell for five times what a car would sell for. So it kind of doesn’t make — it would not make sense for us to do the Semi right now, but it will absolutely make sense for us to do it as soon as we can address the cell production constraint. The same would go for that.”

Effectively, Musk explained that it makes more fiscal sense to focus on the mass-market consumer products for right now. When the Kato Rd. Facility begins a massive production of the 4680 cells, Tesla can begin the Semi production efforts, but that doesn’t mean prototypes aren’t on the road now.

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New Sightings

Following a sighting by The Kilowatts last week, two new sightings of the Semi have surfaced of the all-white Tesla commercial vehicle.

New Tesla Semi with updated windows, door handles, and tail lights spotted in Sacramento

One video from Cory Draper on YouTube shows a four-and-a-half-minute-long walk around of the Semi, getting a close-up look at the vehicle. One of the most striking features is the size of the power cell, as Draper estimates it is between four and five feet in length. A massive truck requires a massive power source, and the Semi’s sizeable battery storage compartment will drive the truck’s 300 or 500-mile range. Another video from Ivaylo Tzintzarsky shows the power cell from the opposite side.

There are also numerous sensors that can be seen on the Semi, especially in Draper’s video. The top of the windshield is outfitted with at least five sensors that will help with the autonomous driving functionality of the Tesla Semi. Autonomy could help with the evolution of the trucking industry, as many drivers are currently restricted to 11 hours of travel per day, according to the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA).

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Fuel savings alone could pay for a Tesla Semi, as the company estimates it will save at least $200,000. Combined with superior aerodynamic performance and, a quad-motor powertrain, and a low center of gravity to prevent rollovers, the Tesla Semi has the potential to revolutionize the trucking industry forever. The question is: When will it begin production, and how long until Tesla can produce the 4680 cells in mass quantities to solve the constraint issue?

Watch the two newest sightings of the Semi below. Let us know what you think in the comments!

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

Tesla has its answer to auto growth, it just has to bring it to the U.S.: analyst

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla has its answer to grow its automotive sales over the next few years, TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli says, but it just has to bring it to the U.S.

On Thursday, Michaeli reiterated his $490 price target and the ‘Buy’ rating he already held on Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA). However, its automotive division has struggled to show sequential growth over the past few years, mostly due to its focus on AI and Full Self-Driving. Tesla already axed two of its lower-volume vehicles with the Model S and Model X earlier this year.

However, Tesla does not need to engineer an entire new vehicle to trigger an upward tick in sales; it just has to bring it from China to the U.S., Michaeli said.

He is talking about the Model Y L, a slightly larger version of the all-electric crossover that is already available in China. U.S. customers have been pleading with CEO Elon Musk to bring it to the country since its launch in Asia last year, but he’s not convinced of it because of the advent of self-driving and its importance in this particular market.

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The problem is that Tesla owners have been requesting something larger that could fit a typical American family. The Model Y L is slightly larger than the standard Model Y, but some are concerned that it could still be too small to fit what most people might need.

Instead, they have asked for a full-size SUV from Tesla.

Tesla gives big hint that it will build Cyber SUV, smaller Cybertruck

Nevertheless, the Model Y L still presents a great opportunity for Tesla in the U.S., and Michaeli says that there is an additional sales opportunity of about 100,000 units, with demand potential falling somewhere between 60,000 and 135,000 units.

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TD Cowen’s note to investors also analyzed that Tesla’s growth could come from a stock perspective as well, positively impacting the stock price, as it has been widely reliant on vehicle sales, even though Tesla has truly phased itself away from that being an important metric.

Tesla stands to gain greatly from the introduction of the Model Y L in the U.S., but only if Elon Musk sees it as a viable fit for the market. Families may need to see Tesla bring something larger to the U.S., or they might be forced to buy from another automaker that offers something that fits is needs for more interior space to haul around the kids.

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Tesla Hardware 3 owners could be made whole this month

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tesla-asia-model-3
Credit: Tesla Asia/Twitter

Tesla Hardware 3 owners are set to get a new Full Self-Driving version this month as the company plans to release what it is referring to as v14 Lite.

The rollout is not yet confirmed for June, but Tesla executives have stated on several occasions that this more refined FSD iteration will work with their cars and increase its capabilities.

This comes after Tesla admitted during its last Earnings Call that these Hardware 3 vehicles would not be able to achieve Full Self-Driving, something that they did not know when they bought these cars. We regularly receive messages from Hardware 3 owners asking when v14 Lite will come out, what they should expect, and whether it is worth it to upgrade the self-driving computer or buy a new car altogether.

It is hard not to feel for them; Tesla CEO Elon Musk said at the company’s 2019 Autonomy Day that all vehicles produced at the time, including Hardware 3 cars, had “all the hardware necessary, compute and otherwise, for Full Self-Driving.”

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Musk also said in March of that year that, “Anyone who purchased Full Self-Driving will get FSD computer upgrade for free.”

However, during the Q1 2026 Earnings Call, Musk admitted that Hardware 3 vehicles would not be capable of FSD, as “It has only 1/8th the memory bandwidth of Hardware 4, and memory bandwidth is one of the key elements needed for unsupervised FSD.”

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Tesla has made some effort to remedy these Hardware 3 owners by offering:

  • Discounted trade-ins toward AI4 cars
  • Hardware retrofits, which would replace the self-driving computer and upgrade all cameras
  • Full Self-Driving v14 Lite

The issue is that many of these owners were led to believe their cars would be capable of unsupervised self-driving. Now, they’re left scrambling for options, and while there are several, they will all require more money out of their pockets.

Expectations for Tesla v14 Lite for Hardware 3 Owners

The big differences between the AI4 v14 and v14 Lite for Hardware 3 owners will stem primarily from hardware constraints. Tesla developed v14 Lite with an optimized frame of mind; the v14 neural nets are toned down to run on an HW3 computer.

Tesla v14 will use the same behavior, but its limits will be hardware-related, especially given that the cameras on HW3 vehicles are lower-resolution.

Tesla reveals its plans for Hardware 3 owners who are eager for updates

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This will result in potentially more edge cases due to the lower quality perception and less long-range detection, but reaction time and overall confidence should be more refined.

There should also be a handful of additional features that are available on AI4 cars, such as:

  • Starting Full Self-Driving from Park
  • Auto Shift
  • Streaks
  • Speed Profiles
  • Improved Dynamics, like Pulling Over for Emergency Vehicles

Tesla plans to release v14 Lite this month, but we are all familiar with how the company can be with timelines. Additionally, if v14 Lite has not proven to be ready for a wide release, Tesla will slam the brakes on the rollout.

We would anticipate that Tesla is testing v14 Lite internally, and likely has been for several months.

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Elon Musk

SpaceXAI just launched into your kitchen with their new app

SpaceXAI just powered its first consumer app and it predicts what you want to buy.

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SpaceXAI just made its first move into consumer AI, and it involves your grocery cart. On June 3, 2026, Gopuff and SpaceXAI announced the launch of Go, a Grok-powered shopping assistant built directly into the Gopuff app that predicts what you need before you even start searching for it.

Gopuff is an instant delivery platform that operates more than 400 micro-fulfillment centers across the U.S., delivering everyday essentials, snacks, drinks, and household items in as little as 15 minutes. It is not a restaurant delivery app or a marketplace. It owns its inventory, controls its warehouses, and handles its own logistics, which means it has built one of the most detailed consumer behavior datasets in retail over its 13-year history.

Go combines SpaceXAI’s advanced reasoning, voice, and image generation models with Gopuff’s dataset of hundreds of millions of orders and real-time cultural signals from X to prepare a suggested cart the moment a customer opens the app. It learns each shopper’s habits and automatically builds a personalized cart based on time of day, location, order history, and real-time indicators. Returning customers can check out with a single tap.


Rather than searching for specific items, users can describe a situation like a game-day party or the desire for a healthy breakfast and Go will assemble a cart automatically. It can also predict when shoppers are running low on items like coffee or paper towels and have them packed and delivered in under 15 minutes. Grok voice integration lets users talk to the app in plain conversational language and check out completely hands-free.

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Gopuff co-founder and co-CEO Yakir Gola said: “Today, we believe the greatest friction left in commerce is not delivery or instantaneous access to the essentials customers need. It’s the moment before: the thinking, the deciding, the remembering. We’re combining Gopuff’s demand intelligence with xAI’s frontier reasoning to create an everyday shopping experience that feels like a true extension of you.”

Why SpaceX just made a $60 billion bet on AI coding ahead of historic IPO

The timing carries context beyond the product launch. SpaceXAI was formed after SpaceX completed an all-stock merger with Elon Musk’s xAI earlier this year, folding one of the most advanced AI labs in the world into the same corporate structure as the company preparing what could be the largest IPO in history. SpaceXAI is dipping into consumer-focused AI just as it prepares for its public debut, and while Musk has openly discussed building an everything app, this launch uses Grok to power another company’s product rather than launching a standalone consumer platform. Every consumer-facing deployment of Grok ahead of the IPO roadshow adds tangible evidence that SpaceXAI is not just an infrastructure play but a direct competitor in the AI application layer where OpenAI and Google are already fighting for dominance.

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