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Tesla Solar Roof is becoming a stealthy killer, and no one is standing in its way
Tesla executives like CEO Elon Musk may emphasize that the company’s Energy business is just as important as its electric vehicle division, there is little doubt that stationary batteries and solar products are just not as sexy or exciting as, say, all-electric supercars, futuristic pickups, or Full Self-Driving software. Yet as Tesla Energy hits its stride, it is becoming evident that some of the company’s products like the Solar Roof could very well develop into stealthy disruptors on their own.
Tesla Energy’s flagship solar product is the Solar Roof, which was initially unveiled in 2016. Since then, the attractive solar shingles have not really seen a serious ramp, at least until now. Over the following years since its debut, Tesla focused on optimizing and improving the Solar Roof, and the result of these initiatives was the V3 tiles, which were rolled out last year. Tesla’s Solar Roof installations have been steadily ramping then, but just like the company’s energy division, its growth was mostly in the background.
Prior to the third-quarter earnings call, Tesla Energy made headlines after roofing company Weddle and Sons Roofing announced that it was able to complete a full Solar Roof installation in just four days. The project was no joke either, as the system was comprised of 15 kW of Solar Roof tiles that covered about 4,000 sq.ft. (about 372 sq.m). This was a milestone for the company, but as noted by Tesla in its Q3 2020 Update Letter, this installation was not even the fastest to date.
Tesla revealed in its third-quarter Update Letter that it has been able to complete a full Solar Roof installation in just 1.5 days. The company did not indicate the size of the system, though it did provide images depicting the installation’s progress. This update, together with the recent report from Weddle and Sons Roofing, shows that steadily, Tesla’s Solar Roof tiles are becoming faster and easier to install.
Tesla Energy’s growth in the third quarter was incredibly impressive, with the company deploying 57 MW of solar, a 111% growth from the second quarter. The company also announced that 759 MWh worth of battery storage was deployed, an 81% increase from Q2 2020. These milestones tend to be pushed aside by the company’s FSD and EV developments, but if Tesla Energy continues at this pace, it would only be a matter of time before the company’s solar and battery storage systems end up becoming a force that will be incredibly difficult to ignore.
Interestingly enough, the Tesla Solar Roof does not really have a lot of competition in the residential solar market in the United States. Granted, products like the SunTegra Solar Shingles could provide some competition, but the overall lineup of rivals for the electric car maker’s V3 tiles are relatively few. With this in mind, the potential path to dominance for the Tesla Solar Roof seems to be mostly clear. Tesla just has to produce them at volumes that meet demand.
Tesla’s reach into the residential market has actually been growing. EnergySage’s eleventh semiannual Solar Marketplace Intel Report, for one, concluded that the Tesla Powerwall 2 is pretty much dominating the US residential market for stationary storage. The competition, comprised of battery storage units from companies like LG Chem, lie far behind, with the Powerwall dominating about half of the quotes given in EnergySage’s Marketplace.
Elon Musk spoke about the Solar Roof’s potential in Tesla’s recently-held earnings call. Just like before, Musk was optimistic about the shingles, though this time around, the CEO seemed to be more certain about its upcoming disruption. Musk even remarked that the Solar Roof’s status as a “killer product” will become evident next year.
“When you look around the neighborhood in the future, decade from now, what do you want? What products are going to make your life better? What future do you want? And I think a future where we’ve got beautiful roofs generating energy that are tough and resilient and better in every way than a regular roof and alive with energy, that’s the future we want. Solar Roof is a killer product. This will become obvious next year,” he said.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted a photo of himself standing with the Optimus production team inside Tesla’s Fremont factory, arms crossed amid workers in hard hats and safety vests. The image captures a pivotal industrial shift: the same facility space once dedicated to building Tesla’s flagship Model S sedan and Model X SUV is now home to the company’s humanoid robot manufacturing line.
Walking the Optimus production line in Fremont pic.twitter.com/ABS0tuRibW
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 1, 2026
Tesla’s Fremont Factory, acquired in 2010 from the former NUMMI joint venture between Toyota and GM, has been the company’s original U.S. manufacturing hub since Model S production began in 2012.
The Model X followed soon thereafter. These premium vehicles offered lower annual volumes, recently around 30,000 combined, compared to the high-volume Model 3 and Model Y lines that continue around the site. Over their combined run, the S and X accounted for roughly 610,000 units.
In late January 2026, during Tesla’s Q4 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk announced the end of Model S and Model X production in Q2 2026. The final vehicles rolled off the line in early May. Rather than retooling for another vehicle, Tesla chose to convert the dedicated S/X assembly area into a dedicated Optimus Gen 3 production line.
Model 3 and Y manufacturing remains unaffected. Tesla’s official Fremont Factory page now lists Optimus alongside the 3 and Y as core products.
The conversion was executed with remarkable speed. After production stopped, crews dismantled the existing vehicle line and installed entirely new modular equipment—including lines sourced from Germany and dozens of sub-lines for actuators, batteries, and other components—in roughly four months.
Musk described the timeline as “insanely fast,” noting it would be unprecedented for any other manufacturer. Initial Optimus output is expected to ramp slowly due to the robot’s roughly 10,000 unique parts and the brand-new production processes involved. The Fremont line targets an eventual capacity of 1 million Optimus units per year.
Tesla isn’t joking about building Optimus at an industrial scale: Here we go
Optimus Development Timeline
- August 19, 2021: Optimus (then called Tesla Bot) formally announced at Tesla’s first AI Day. A concept video showed a person in a suit demonstrating the vision for a general-purpose humanoid capable of dangerous, repetitive, or boring tasks using the same AI architecture as Full Self-Driving.
- 2022: Early prototypes displayed. At the second AI Day in September, semi-functional units demonstrated walking across a stage and basic arm movements
- 2023: September videos showed improved capabilities, including sorting colored blocks, precise limb awareness, and holding a Yoda pose.
- 2024-early 2025: Factory integration videos showed Optimus navigating workspaces and handling objects like battery cells.
- January 2026: Gen 3 mass-production activities began at Fremont, with reports of over 1,000 Gen 3 units already operating inside the factory for real-world learning and AI training
- April 2026: Musk confirms Optimus production on converted Fremont line would begin in late July or August 2026. The Gen 3 reveal, originally eyed for Q1, was pushed closer to production start. A second, much larger Optimus factory at Giga Texas is under construction, with volume production targeted for Summer 2027 and long-term capacity of 10 million units annually
- July 1, 2026: Musk’s on-site visit and team photo confirm the Optimus line is operational and the transition is actively progressing
Tesla positions Optimus as potentially its largest project ever, leveraging vertical integration, AI expertise, and car-like manufacturing know-how to scale humanoid robots first for its own factories and later for broader industrial and consumer use.
The Fremont conversion serves as a critical proving ground for this ambitious new chapter in Tesla’s already-rich history.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
Tesla short seller Michael Burry, the subject of the film “The Big Short,” where he was portrayed by Steve Carell, has revealed he has opened a new bet against the stock.
In a new update to his Substack newsletter in a post titled “Trading Post June 30, 2026,” Burry revealed a new set of bets against Tesla, Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials Inc., and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
In regard to Tesla, Burry wrote:
“And finally I shorted Tesla at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level.”
This means Burry likely opened his new short position after the company’s recent rally on Wall Street, which saw Tesla shares sink in mid-May, only to recover to well over the $400 mark. Currently, shares trade at around $427.
The company saw a big Tuesday as shares climbed considerably, over 10 percent. The size of the Tesla short was not provided, nor did Burry give any information on the position’s structure, the number of shares, dollar value, or whether options were used in the short.
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Over the years, Burry has been one of the more vocal critics of Tesla, calling its share price “media inflated,” and saying it was “ridiculously overvalued” as recently as December.
The company has largely transitioned away from being known as an automotive company and instead is much more widely regarded as an AI play, mostly due to its Full Self-Driving efforts, Optimus robot development, and data collection related to both.
This has not pulled those skeptics away from being vocal about their distaste for how Tesla is valued, but there’s no denying that the company is a global force in many things, including sustainable energy, automotive, and AI.
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
Tesla Optimus project fires up as Musk sees production line progress
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
