Investor's Corner

Tesla stock (TSLA) one week after the Q1 2016 Report

Published

9 years ago

May 11, 2016

Post Q1 Report Action

The technical response of the stock market to last week’s Tesla Q1 2016 report has been mostly negative. The stock lost quite a bit since last week, standing at around $208 when I write this, but overall 12-month Analyst Price Targets have actually increased with the average raising from $253 to $277, indicating that the Top Analysts did not see the report as negatively as this past week’s market action.

This is a small sample of the reactions from Top Analysts, noting that none of them changed their position to BUY, SELL or HOLD.

Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley, reiterated a BUY with $333 price target, commenting that “we forecast ~70k units in 2016 (vs. the reiterated guidance of 80-90k shipments), which is composed of ~16k Model X and ~54k Model S units. In 2Q, we forecast ~17k deliveries–inline with the outlook.”

Charlie Anderson of Dougherty resumed coverage of TSLA with a BUY and price target of $500, noting that “the focus coming out of the Q1 report is on managements decision to pull-forward its production goal of 500K vehicles from 2020 to 2018. While this aggressive schedule certainly increases the risk of nearer-term stumbles, it also significantly pulls forward the earnings power. Tesla has set a goal to produce 1MM vehicles by 2020, roughly 2x what most observers previously believed. Our view is that demand is not the question; it is solving the manufacturing challenges deftly as they come.”

Brian Johnson of Barclays reiterated a SELL with $165 price target.

Ryan Brinkman of J.P. Morgan reiterated a SELL with $185 price target, as he “Doubts Tesla Motors Can Meet Accelerated Production Target.”

Colin Rusch or Oppenheimer reiterated a BUY with $385 price target, indicating that “we believe the critical characteristic of TSLAs business model over the next 24 months will be operating leverage. We believe the company can achieve 15%+ incremental operating margins as it ramps the Model 3. We modeling TSLA reaching 500k vehicles in 2019 vs. the target of 2018, noting the company has a history of setting nearly unachievable goals. Effectively we are accelerating ramp by a year from our previous expectations, but calculate that if the company reaches its 500k vehicle target in 2018 and 1M in 2020, our EPS estimates will prove ~30% too low.”

See the table below from TipRanks (tipranks.com) for a complete summary of the current top analyst ratings.

TSLA analyst coverage [Source: TipRanks]

Swing Trading TSLA using the MACD

This is the first post where I will start outlining techniques that traders may want to use when trading TSLA stock.

I am mostly a “swing trader”. Swing Trading is a short term trading method that can be used when trading stocks and options. Whereas Day Trading positions last less than one day, Swing Trading positions typically last two to six days, but may last as long as two weeks (for TSLA sometime six-seven weeks). Swing traders use technical analysis to look for stocks with short-term price momentum. These traders aren’t interested in the fundamental or intrinsic value of stocks, but rather in their price trends and patterns.

There are a number of technical indicators that swing traders use. Today I will cover the MACD. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is a type of moving average that is similar to a simple moving average, except that more weight is given to the latest data.

The good thing is that you really do not have to calculate any of these indicators yourself, as pretty much all trading platforms that I know of provide you with such indicators as an option when displaying the stock chart of a given security.

The following stock chart from Wall Street I/O shows the TSLA market data as “candlestick” (showing open, close, high and low of the day) for the past year, plus it also shows the MACD for the same period.

Source: Wall Street I/O

One technique that swing traders use is to enter a “long” trade when the MACD “crosses to the bulls”, and exit the trade when the MACD “crosses to the bears”. I have indicated these points in the chart for the huge run up between the February low and April high.

Micah Lamar is the CEO of Wall Street I/O (wallst.io), where together with his team of experts he helps people learn stock and option trading. Disclosure: I have been a subscriber to wallst.io for a few years.

This past weekend, Micah run a “MACD Validation” experiment on TSLA 1-year behavior up to last Friday close. The results are as follows.

Micah found that “if one had bought TSLA stock exactly a year ago, and held it for the full year, one would have incurred a $30 loss per share.

If one had bought and held TSLA stock while the MACD was bullish, one would be up $22 for the year.

If one had sold (short) TSLA stock while the MACD was bearish, one would be up $51 for the year.”

Someone trading both sides (long and short the stock) would be up a whopping $73, or a $30% gain.

Of course, trading the same entry and exit points based on the MACD with put or call options instead of stock would have resulted in returns 10 to 100 times or better than if just trading TSLA stock.

Micah indicates that “TSLA is a great stock for swing traders: the reason is that it has so much “beta.” A high beta indicates that a security is much more “volatile” than the rest of the market. Most high-tech stocks like TSLA have a beta of greater than 1, offering the possibility of a higher rate of return, but also posing more risk.

As far as where TSLA is today, it is still in “bearish” territory (as far as the MACD and other indicators are concerned), which for me it means that it is untouchable on long trades as “too risky”, and since I do not like to play on the downside for stocks of companies that are in my “buy what you know” list, I will not trade it again until the MACD crosses back to the bulls.

Elon Musk

NYC Comptroller moves to sue Tesla for securities violations

Published

9 hours ago

April 1, 2025

Joey Klender

MINISTÉRIO DAS COMUNICAÇÕES, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

New York City Comptroller Brad Lander is urging the NYC Law Department to sue Tesla for securities violations related to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Lander said the basis for the potential litigation lies on “material misstatements from Tesla claiming that CEO Elon Musk spends significant time on the company and is highly active in its management, despite his helming the Trump Administration’s DOGE initiative.”

🚨 NEWS: New York City Comptroller Brad Lander wants to sue Tesla by claiming CEO Elon Musk’s role as the head of DOGE is hurting the stock.
Lander said that Musk was “effectively quitting his job at Tesla” by assuming the role with DOGE. pic.twitter.com/p9eMq9mMbr
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) April 1, 2025

It is a common complaint amongst some Tesla shareholders who are less than enthusiastic about Musk’s involvement in DOGE. Some feel as if Musk is not concerned about Tesla, especially as the stock has dropped over 28 percent this year. However, Musk has continued to double down on his position within the U.S. government.

Nevertheless, Musk’s position in Tesla is still very apparent. He headed an All-Hands meeting just two weeks ago that showed his commitment to the company as he outlined future plans and even joked to employees that they should hold onto their stock.

However, Lander believes Musk’s involvement has hurt New York City pension systems, which have lost over $300 million so far this year. He said:

“In less than three months, Tesla stock has lost nearly 40% of its value, with losses over $300 million for the New York City pension systems. We have long expressed concerns that the Tesla board has failed to provide independent oversight, or to require that Musk – or someone else – serve as a full-time CEO.”

Lander went on to say that “material misstatements from Tesla misled investors about his role at the company,” stating this was his reasoning for calling on the Law Department to file securities litigation against the company.

He believes taking it to court will force changes and will return Tesla shares back to a level that will benefit pension systems in New York City:

“Shareholder litigation could force the changes in governance and leadership that Tesla needs, and help recover some of our pension systems’ losses. Otherwise, we may need to consider divestment.”

The pension systems would be able to pursue financial damages to cover losses and seek governance changes, it says.

Investor's Corner

Tesla (TSLA) shares company-compiled Q1 2025 delivery consensus

Analysts are expecting the electric car maker to post 377,592 deliveries for Q1 2025.

Published

2 days ago

March 31, 2025

Simon Alvarez

Credit: Tesla China

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has released its Q1 2025 company-compiled delivery consensus of sell-side analysts. Based on Tesla’s release, it appears that analysts are expecting Tesla to post conservative vehicle delivery results for the first quarter.

Images of Tesla’s Q1 2025 company-compiled consensus were shared recently on social media.

The Consensus

As could be seen in Tesla’s first quarter 2025 company-compiled vehicle delivery consensus, analysts are expecting the electric car maker to post 377,592 deliveries for Q1 2025. Analysts expect this number to be comprised of 351,893 Model 3/Model Y and 21,241 other models.

The company-compiled consensus also suggests that Tesla will see total deliveries of 1,851,001 vehicles this Full Year 2025. From this number, analysts expect 1,693,397 units of the Model 3 and Model Y and 145,162 units of Tesla’s other models.

here you go guys, enjoy $tsla delivery consensus pic.twitter.com/oLFAm12WBk— lord pretty flacko ⚔️ (@smdcapital1010) March 28, 2025

The sources

Tesla’s company-compiled consensus was based on estimates from 27 firms. These include Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Cowen, OpCo, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, GS, Evercore ISI, Barclays, PSC, Mizuho, BofA, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Truist, UBS, Jefferies, Guggenheim, JPM, Redburn, Needham & Co, HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair.

FactSet expectations

As noted in an Investor’s Business Daily report, FactSet estimates suggest that Tesla will see vehicle deliveries of 407,900 units in Q1 2025. Such a number is quite optimistic considering that Tesla’s sales of its best-selling vehicle, the Model Y, were throttled during the quarter due to the company’s transition to the new Model Y.

Beyond Q1 deliveries, Tesla’s first quarter vehicle delivery results could trigger revisions to the company’s full-year delivery and earnings forecasts. FactSet data shows Q1 earnings estimates hitting 48 cents per share, down from 57 cents in late January and 74 cents late last year. For 2025, analysts now see earnings per share climbing 13% to $2.74, a drop from $3.31 before the Q4 earnings release.

Elon Musk

Elon Musk clarifies Trump tariff effect on Tesla: “The cost impact is not trivial”

The U.S. President has stated that Elon Musk stayed silent and provided no input in the administration’s tariffs.

Published

6 days ago

March 27, 2025

Simon Alvarez

MINISTÉRIO DAS COMUNICAÇÕES, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to implement a 25% tariff on non-U.S.-made vehicles starting next week would affect American electric car maker Tesla.

This was confirmed by CEO Elon Musk in a recent post on social media platform X.

Musk and Trump

While Elon Musk works closely with the Trump administration due to his role in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), the U.S. president has emphasized that the Tesla CEO never asks for favors. This was highlighted in his recent comments, when he stated that Elon Musk stayed silent and provided no input in the administration’s 25% auto tariffs.

When asked by reporters if the new tariffs would be good for Tesla, Trump noted that they may be “net neutral or they may be good.” The U.S. president also pointed to Tesla’s automotive plants in Fremont, California and Austin, Texas, which produce vehicles that are sold in the country. “Anybody that has plants in the United States — it’s going to be good for them,” Trump noted.

To be clear, this will affect the price of parts in Tesla cars that come from other countries. The cost impact is not trivial.— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 27, 2025

Tesla Affected

In a post on X, Elon Musk clarified that the Trump administration’s tariffs would affect the prices of vehicle parts that are sourced from other countries. This was a concern that Tesla previously outlined in a letter to the U.S. Trade Representative, which noted that even with “aggressive localization” of its supply chain, “certain parts and components are difficult or impossible to source within the United States.”

As per Musk in his recent post on X, the cost impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs is no joke. “To be clear, this will affect the price of parts in Tesla cars that come from other countries. The cost impact is not trivial,” Musk wrote in his post.

Potential Effects

Reactions to Musk’s comments from users of the social media platform were varied, with some speculating that the Trump auto tariffs could result in Teslas becoming more expensive in the United States. Despite this, the potential increases in Tesla’s vehicle prices might not be as notable as other cars, particularly those that are produced outside the country.