Investor's Corner
Tesla towers Toyota’s unit profit margin, making 8 times as much per car
A new analysis shows that Tesla’s profit margin per vehicle built towers over that of Toyota by roughly eight times. Tesla built slightly less than one-seventh of the vehicles Toyota did from July to September but outshined the Japanese company where it matters in Q3 2022: on the financials sheet.
Tesla’s profit margin per vehicle for Q3 2022 was eight times what Toyota brought in, an analysis from Nikkei Asia shows. Tesla reported $3.29 billion net profit in Q3, while Toyota said it made $3.15 billion in the same time frame. There’s more to the story, though.
Toyota was caught in the middle of several scenarios that required unforeseen spending. For example, Toyota was plagued with high operating costs as electricity prices skyrocketed, and relatively predictable material cost increases also contributed to monumental spending in Q3. In all, Toyota’s financial spending pushed operating profits down just over $3 billion.
This is not to say that Tesla has not refined its manufacturing processes and spending to reach world-class levels. For years, Tesla has been known to have some of the best profitability margins on its vehicles in various markets. In China, gross margins for the Model 3 and Model Y reached as high as 39 and 29.4 percent, respectively. Tesla has continued this globally, with its automotive gross margin of 27.9 percent in Q3, unchanged from Q2.
The company’s highest gross margin in the past year was 32.9 percent, which occurred in Q1 2022.
Tesla is on scale much smaller than Toyota. In 2021, Tesla delivered almost exactly one-tenth of the cars that Toyota did on a global scale. Tesla reported 936,000 deliveries for the year, while Toyota’s 9.51 million units were enough to make it the best-selling car company of 2021.
However, on a quarterly basis, comparing Tesla to Toyota in the three months from July to September, Toyota sold 7.6 times as many cars as Tesla. This is where the financials come into play and where Tesla’s profit margin is really impressive.
Nikkei Asia’s analysis shows Tesla made $9,570 per vehicle during Q3, enough to make Tesla more profitable per vehicle than any other manufacturer on the planet. However, the report states this is unconfirmed. Toyota made only around $1,200 per vehicle.
“The biggest factor behind Tesla’s profit growth is sales volume, then prices hikes and a rise in self-driving software sales,” an analyst at SBI Securities said.
Cutting operating costs is not out of line or uncommon for Tesla. Recently, the company started trimming expenditures in China by ditching flashy showrooms and swapping them out for multi-purpose facilities instead. In terms of manufacturing, the Giga Press revolutionized vehicle castings for the company by eliminating parts, improving production time, and increasing efficiency.
Tesla’s unique stance on vertical integration has also led to reductions in overall spending, leading to more profitability per vehicle.
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Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
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Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock received a price target update from Pierre Ferragu of Wall Street firm New Street Research, citing the company’s growing lead in self-driving and autonomy.
On Tuesday, Ferragu bumped his price target from $520 to $600, stating that the consensus from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas was that Tesla’s lead in autonomy has been sustained, is growing, and sits at a multiple-year lead over its competitors.
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“The signal from Vegas is loud and clear,” the analyst writes. “The industry isn’t catching up to Tesla; it is actively validating Tesla’s strategy…just with a 12-year lag.”
The note shows that the company’s prowess in vehicle autonomy is being solidified by lagging competitors that claim to have the best method. The only problem is that Tesla’s Vision-based approach, which it adopted back in 2022 with the Model 3 and Model Y initially, has been proven to be more effective than competitors’ approach, which utilizes other technology, such as LiDAR and sensors.
Currently, Tesla shares are sitting at around $433, as the company’s stock price closed at $432.96 on Tuesday afternoon.
Ferragu’s consensus on Tesla shares echoes that of other Wall Street analysts who are bullish on the company’s stock and position within the AI, autonomy, and robotics sector.
Dan Ives of Wedbush wrote in a note in mid-December that he anticipates Tesla having a massive 2026, and could reach a $3 trillion valuation this year, especially with the “AI chapter” taking hold of the narrative at the company.
Ives also said that the big step in the right direction for Tesla will be initiating production of the Cybercab, as well as expanding on the Robotaxi program through the next 12 months:
“…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
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Tesla has transitioned from an automaker to a full-fledged AI company, and its Robotaxi and Cybercab programs, fueled by the Full Self-Driving suite, are leading the charge moving forward. In 2026, there are major goals the company has outlined. The first is removing Safety Drivers from vehicles in Austin, Texas, one of the areas where it operates a ride-hailing service within the U.S.
Ultimately, Tesla will aim to launch a Level 5 autonomy suite to the public in the coming years.
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