Investor's Corner
Tesla set to access up to $20B in revenues from Supercharger deals, Dan Ives says
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is set to access up to $20 billion in revenues from its recent Supercharger deals with Ford, General Motors, and various other automakers, Dan Ives of Wedbush said in a note this morning.
Tesla’s Supercharger Network is the most robust and expansive on the planet, and earlier this Summer, it gained massive attention when it struck deals with various OEMs to allow their EVs to access the charging infrastructure starting in Spring 2024.
While Aptera was the first to have access by adopting Tesla’s North American Charging Standard, or NACS, connector, Ford and General Motors followed suit in two announcements that shook the EV industry.
These partnerships then catalyzed various other automakers, including Rivian, Volvo, Polestar, and others, to make the same move. The adoption of NACS is set to bring Tesla major revenue increases through the rest of the decade, according to Wedbush’s Dan Ives, who is a top analyst covering the automaker and the sector as a whole.
Tesla’s NACS Contributing to Revenue
Ives wrote in a note this morning to investors:
“To dive deeper into this sum-of-the-parts valuation, we modeled & projected out Tesla’s supercharger network, taking into account access & revenues from other OEMs using stations across the United States. Ultimately, we estimate that Tesla’s supercharger business will be roughly 3%-6% of total revenues, translating to a $10 billion – $20 billion business by 2030.”
Ives wrote in the note that while the Supercharger Network opening to OEMs is a major part of the Tesla story, it is just that: one part.
(Credit: Tesla)
Strong production figures, a thriving energy business, continuous improvement on the side of the development of Autopilot and Full Self-Driving, an “unmatched battery ecosystem,” and increased production and scale scope are all contributing to a strong financial sheet for Tesla.
“…we believe Tesla is in a prime position to further capitalize on the EV transformation taking place as part of the government’s plan to reduce carbon emissions to zero by 2050,” Ives wrote.
Cybertruck Deliveries ‘Highly Anticipated’
In addition to the strong revenue stream that will come with the opening of Superchargers to OEMs, other Tesla projects are also set to drive profitability, notably the Cybertruck.
“With the delivery numbers representing its flagship model fleet, the much-anticipated Cybertruck remains a hot commodity in the market with the company taking in 1.5 – 1.8 million reservations,” Ives writes.
Elon Musk teases a ‘production candidate’ Cybertruck at Giga Texas
However, recent figures show over 1.9 million reservations held for the Cybertruck currently.
“While preparing for the launch in FY3Q23, the Cybertruck puts TSLA in a great position to capitalize on the growing need for electric pickups with the electric truck market growing at a 31% CAGR through 2032.”
Full Self-Driving and Its Contributions to Profits
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite is another major contributor to the automaker’s growing profitability and will drive the automaker’s total addressable market upward. Continuing to refine the suite’s performance through neural network training, the suite, along with Autopilot, has already contributed over 150 million miles of data.
There are more improvements on the way.
“Last week, the company announced its V12 update, an FSD package with end-to-end AI for improved driving smoothness through turns while enhancing both decision-making and detection in TSLA’s journey with the aim of achieving full autonomy this year,” Ives writes.
Ives holds a $350 price target and an “Outperform” rating on Tesla stock.
Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.
There are a lot of Tesla bulls out there who have astronomical expectations for the company, especially as its arm of reach has gone well past automotive and energy and entered artificial intelligence and robotics.
However, some of the most bullish Tesla investors believe the company could become worth $100 trillion, and CEO Elon Musk does not believe that number is completely out of the question, even if it sounds almost ridiculous.
To put that number into perspective, the top ten most valuable companies in the world — NVIDIA, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, TSMC, Meta, Saudi Aramco, Broadcom, and Tesla — are worth roughly $26 trillion.
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Cathie Wood of ARK Invest believes the number is reasonable considering Tesla’s long-reaching industry ambitions:
“…in the world of AI, what do you have to have to win? You have to have proprietary data, and think about all the proprietary data he has, different kinds of proprietary data. Tesla, the language of the road; Neuralink, multiomics data; nobody else has that data. X, nobody else has that data either. I could see $100 trillion. I think it’s going to happen because of convergence. I think Tesla is the leading candidate [for $100 trillion] for the reason I just said.”
Musk said late last year that all of his companies seem to be “heading toward convergence,” and it’s started to come to fruition. Tesla invested in xAI, as revealed in its Q4 Earnings Shareholder Deck, and SpaceX recently acquired xAI, marking the first step in the potential for a massive umbrella of companies under Musk’s watch.
SpaceX officially acquires xAI, merging rockets with AI expertise
Now that it is happening, it seems Musk is even more enthusiastic about a massive valuation that would swell to nearly four-times the value of the top ten most valuable companies in the world currently, as he said on X, the idea of a $100 trillion valuation is “not impossible.”
It’s not impossible
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 6, 2026
Tesla is not just a car company. With its many projects, including the launch of Robotaxi, the progress of the Optimus robot, and its AI ambitions, it has the potential to continue gaining value at an accelerating rate.
Musk’s comments show his confidence in Tesla’s numerous projects, especially as some begin to mature and some head toward their initial stages.
Elon Musk
Tesla director pay lawsuit sees lawyer fees slashed by $100 million
The ruling leaves the case’s underlying settlement intact while significantly reducing what the plaintiffs’ attorneys will receive.
The Delaware Supreme Court has cut more than $100 million from a legal fee award tied to a shareholder lawsuit challenging compensation paid to Tesla directors between 2017 and 2020.
The ruling leaves the case’s underlying settlement intact while significantly reducing what the plaintiffs’ attorneys will receive.
Delaware Supreme Court trims legal fees
As noted in a Bloomberg Law report, the case targeted pay granted to Tesla directors, including CEO Elon Musk, Oracle founder Larry Ellison, Kimbal Musk, and Rupert Murdoch. The Delaware Chancery Court had awarded $176 million to the plaintiffs. Tesla’s board must also return stock options and forego years worth of pay.
As per Chief Justice Collins J. Seitz Jr. in an opinion for the Delaware Supreme Court’s full five-member panel, however, the decision of the Delaware Chancery Court to award $176 million to a pension fund’s law firm “erred by including in its financial benefit analysis the intrinsic value” of options being returned by Tesla’s board.
The justices then reduced the fee award from $176 million to $70.9 million. “As we measure it, $71 million reflects a reasonable fee for counsel’s efforts and does not result in a windfall,” Chief Justice Seitz wrote.
Other settlement terms still intact
The Supreme Court upheld the settlement itself, which requires Tesla’s board to return stock and options valued at up to $735 million and to forgo three years of additional compensation worth about $184 million.
Tesla argued during oral arguments that a fee award closer to $70 million would be appropriate. Interestingly enough, back in October, Justice Karen L. Valihura noted that the $176 award was $60 million more than the Delaware judiciary’s budget from the previous year. This was quite interesting as the case was “settled midstream.”
The lawsuit was brought by a pension fund on behalf of Tesla shareholders and focused exclusively on director pay during the 2017–2020 period. The case is separate from other high-profile compensation disputes involving Elon Musk.
Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call: The most important points
Executives, including CEO Elon Musk, discussed how the company is positioning itself for growth across vehicles, energy, AI, and robotics despite near-term pressures from tariffs, pricing, and macro conditions.
Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call highlighted improving margins, record energy performance, expanding autonomy efforts, and a sharp acceleration in AI and robotics investments.
Executives, including CEO Elon Musk, discussed how the company is positioning itself for growth across vehicles, energy, AI, and robotics despite near-term pressures from tariffs, pricing, and macro conditions.
Key takeaways
Tesla reported sequential improvement in automotive gross margins excluding regulatory credits, rising from 15.4% to 17.9%, supported by favorable regional mix effects despite a 16% decline in deliveries. Total gross margin exceeded 20.1%, the highest level in more than two years, even with lower fixed-cost absorption and tariff impacts.
The energy business delivered standout results, with revenue reaching nearly $12.8 billion, up 26.6% year over year. Energy gross profit hit a new quarterly record, driven by strong global demand and high deployments of MegaPack and Powerwall across all regions, as noted in a report from The Motley Fool.
Tesla also stated that paid Full Self-Driving customers have climbed to nearly 1.1 million worldwide, with about 70% having purchased FSD outright. The company has now fully transitioned FSD to a subscription-based sales model, which should create a short-term margin headwind for automotive results.
Free cash flow totaled $1.4 billion for the quarter. Operating expenses rose by $500 million sequentially as well.
Production shifts, robotics, and AI investment
Musk further confirmed that Model S and Model X production is expected to wind down next quarter, and plans are underway to convert Fremont’s S/X line into an Optimus robot factory with a capacity of one million units.
Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet has surpassed 500 vehicles, operating across the Bay Area and Austin, with Musk noting a rapid monthly expansion pace. He also reiterated that CyberCab production is expected to begin in April, following a slow initial S-curve ramp before scaling beyond other vehicle programs.
Looking ahead, Tesla expects its capital expenditures to exceed $20 billion next year, thanks to the company’s operations across its six factories, the expansion of its fleet expansion, and the ramp of its AI compute. Additional investments in AI chips, compute infrastructure, and future in-house semiconductor manufacturing were discussed but are not included in the company’s current CapEx guidance.
More importantly, Tesla ended the year with a larger backlog than in recent years. This is supported by record deliveries in smaller international markets and stronger demand across APAC and EMEA. Energy backlog remains strong globally as well, though Tesla cautioned that margin pressure could emerge from competition, policy uncertainty, and tariffs.
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