Investor's Corner
Tesla set to access up to $20B in revenues from Supercharger deals, Dan Ives says
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is set to access up to $20 billion in revenues from its recent Supercharger deals with Ford, General Motors, and various other automakers, Dan Ives of Wedbush said in a note this morning.
Tesla’s Supercharger Network is the most robust and expansive on the planet, and earlier this Summer, it gained massive attention when it struck deals with various OEMs to allow their EVs to access the charging infrastructure starting in Spring 2024.
While Aptera was the first to have access by adopting Tesla’s North American Charging Standard, or NACS, connector, Ford and General Motors followed suit in two announcements that shook the EV industry.
These partnerships then catalyzed various other automakers, including Rivian, Volvo, Polestar, and others, to make the same move. The adoption of NACS is set to bring Tesla major revenue increases through the rest of the decade, according to Wedbush’s Dan Ives, who is a top analyst covering the automaker and the sector as a whole.
Tesla’s NACS Contributing to Revenue
Ives wrote in a note this morning to investors:
“To dive deeper into this sum-of-the-parts valuation, we modeled & projected out Tesla’s supercharger network, taking into account access & revenues from other OEMs using stations across the United States. Ultimately, we estimate that Tesla’s supercharger business will be roughly 3%-6% of total revenues, translating to a $10 billion – $20 billion business by 2030.”
Ives wrote in the note that while the Supercharger Network opening to OEMs is a major part of the Tesla story, it is just that: one part.
(Credit: Tesla)
Strong production figures, a thriving energy business, continuous improvement on the side of the development of Autopilot and Full Self-Driving, an “unmatched battery ecosystem,” and increased production and scale scope are all contributing to a strong financial sheet for Tesla.
“…we believe Tesla is in a prime position to further capitalize on the EV transformation taking place as part of the government’s plan to reduce carbon emissions to zero by 2050,” Ives wrote.
Cybertruck Deliveries ‘Highly Anticipated’
In addition to the strong revenue stream that will come with the opening of Superchargers to OEMs, other Tesla projects are also set to drive profitability, notably the Cybertruck.
“With the delivery numbers representing its flagship model fleet, the much-anticipated Cybertruck remains a hot commodity in the market with the company taking in 1.5 – 1.8 million reservations,” Ives writes.
Elon Musk teases a ‘production candidate’ Cybertruck at Giga Texas
However, recent figures show over 1.9 million reservations held for the Cybertruck currently.
“While preparing for the launch in FY3Q23, the Cybertruck puts TSLA in a great position to capitalize on the growing need for electric pickups with the electric truck market growing at a 31% CAGR through 2032.”
Full Self-Driving and Its Contributions to Profits
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite is another major contributor to the automaker’s growing profitability and will drive the automaker’s total addressable market upward. Continuing to refine the suite’s performance through neural network training, the suite, along with Autopilot, has already contributed over 150 million miles of data.
There are more improvements on the way.
“Last week, the company announced its V12 update, an FSD package with end-to-end AI for improved driving smoothness through turns while enhancing both decision-making and detection in TSLA’s journey with the aim of achieving full autonomy this year,” Ives writes.
Ives holds a $350 price target and an “Outperform” rating on Tesla stock.
Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
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Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Investor's Corner
Tesla wins $508 price target from Stifel as Robotaxi rollout gains speed
The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Tesla received another round of bullish analyst updates this week, led by Stifel, raising its price target to $508 from $483 while reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Robotaxi rollout, FSD updates, and new affordable cars
Stifel expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to expand into 8–10 major metropolitan areas by the end of 2025, including Austin, where early deployments without safety drivers are targeted before year-end. Additional markets under evaluation include Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, as noted in an Investing.com report. The firm also highlighted strong early performance for FSD Version 14, with upcoming releases adding new “reasoning capabilities” designed to improve complex decision-making using full 360-degree vision.
Tesla has also taken steps to offset the loss of U.S. EV tax credits by launching the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard at $39,990 and $36,990, Stifel noted. Both vehicles deliver more than 300 miles of range and are positioned to sustain demand despite shifting incentives. Stifel raised its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025 and $19.5 billion for 2026, assigning partial valuation weightings to Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus initiatives.
TD Cowen also places an optimistic price target
TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating with a $509 price target after a research tour of Giga Texas, citing production scale and operational execution as key strengths. The firm posted its optimistic price target following a recent Mobility Bus tour in Austin. The tour included a visit to Giga Texas, which offered fresh insights into the company’s operations and prospects.
Additional analyst movements include Truist Securities maintaining its Hold rating following shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan, viewing the vote as reducing leadership uncertainty.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Investor's Corner
Tesla receives major institutional boost with Nomura’s rising stake
The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has gained fresh institutional support, with Nomura Asset Management expanding its position in the automaker.
Nomura boosted its Tesla holdings by 4.2%, adding 47,674 shares and bringing its total position to more than 1.17 million shares valued at roughly $373.6 million. The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Institutional investors and TSLA
Nomura’s filing was released alongside several other fund updates. Brighton Jones LLC boosted its holdings by 11.8%, as noted in a MarketBeat report, and Revolve Wealth Partners lifted its TSLA position by 21.2%. Bison Wealth increased its Tesla stake by 52.2%, AMG National Trust Bank increased its position in shares of Tesla by 11.8%, and FAS Wealth Partners increased its TSLA holdings by 22.1%. About 66% of all outstanding Tesla shares are now owned by institutional investors.
The buying comes shortly after Tesla reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, posting $0.50 per share compared with the $0.48 consensus. Revenue reached $28.10 billion, topping Wall Street’s $24.98 billion estimate. Despite the earnings beat, Tesla continues to trade at a steep premium relative to peers, with a market cap hovering around $1.34 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio near 270.
Recent insider sales
Some Tesla insiders have sold stock as of late. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares in early September for just over $918,000, reducing his personal stake by about 21%. Director James R. Murdoch executed a far larger sale, offloading 120,000 shares for roughly $42 million and trimming his holdings by nearly 15%. Over the past three months, Tesla insiders have collectively sold 202,606 shares valued at approximately $75.6 million, as per SEC disclosures.
Tesla is currently entering its next phase of growth, and if it is successful, it could very well become the world’s most valuable company as a result. The company has several high-profile projects expected to be rolled out in the coming years, including Optimus, the humanoid robot, and the Cybercab, an autonomous two-seater with the potential to change the face of roads across the globe.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Tesla CEO Elon Musk teases insane capabilities of next major FSD update
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
