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Tesla’s Q4 FY 2020 earnings may herald $7B options payout to Elon Musk

(Credit: elon.ai)

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Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) upcoming fourth quarter and full-year 2020 earnings report could trigger a massive $7 billion options payout for CEO Elon Musk –at least if the electric car maker reports numbers that are in line with analyst estimates. 

Following Wednesday’s close, analysts on average are expecting Tesla to report an adjusted EBITDA of $2.3 billion, a 92% increase from the same period last year. Provided that the electric car maker meets this figure, Elon Musk would trigger the vesting of his performance plan’s fifth tranche, allowing him to purchase TSLA shares at a discount. 

Elon Musk’s pay scheme for Tesla is rather unique due to its high-risk, high-reward nature. Approved in 2018, Musk’s performance award includes 12 milestones, comprised of $50 billion additions to Tesla’s market cap and other operational goals. Considering that the tranches of Musk’s performance award are granted with every milestone that is achieved, the CEO receives no compensation if Tesla fails to reach its targets. 

Each tranche of Musk’s payment plan gives the CEO the option to purchase 8.4 million Tesla shares at $70 each, a discount of about 90% from TSLA’s current trading price. As noted in a Reuters report, the shares from the four previous tranches and the current tranche would place their value at nearly $35 billion, or nearly $7 billion per tranche. 

While Elon Musk’s pay scheme in Tesla provides him with an opportunity to significantly increase his net worth with every tranche, it also strengthens his connections with the electric car maker. As such, the shares that Musk purchases at a discounted price would not translate to cash unless he sells them, a scenario that is quite unlikely considering the CEO’s history with the electric car maker. 

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At the end of 2020, Tesla reported that it had delivered and produced half a million vehicles in one year. With this target achieved, investors are currently focused on the company’s 2021 delivery target, which would likely be more ambitious considering that Giga Shanghai’s Model Y plant is now operational, and Giga Berlin and Texas are expected to go live this year. 

Disclaimer: I am long TSLA.

Don’t hesitate to contact us for news tips. Just send a message to tips@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla (TSLA) Q1 2025 earnings: What to expect

Tesla stock reached as high as $488.54 per share in 2024, though it is trading at around $240 per share as of writing.

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is expected to release its first quarter 2025 results after markets close today, April 22, 2025.

At 4:30 p.m. Central Time / 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time, executives such as CEO Elon Musk will also be holding a Company Update and the Q1 2025 earnings call.

Tesla Q1 Deliveries and Production

Tesla missed estimates in the first quarter, with the company delivering a total of 336,681 vehicles worldwide. A total of 362,615 vehicles were also produced during this period.

While the delivery results of Tesla’s electric vehicle business were subpar in Q1 2025, the company’s energy division exhibited strong performance during the quarter, deploying a total of 10.4 GWh worth of energy storage products.

Earnings Estimates

As noted in a Forbes report, expectations are high that Tesla will report a gain of $0.35/share on $21.85 billion in revenue. Whisper numbers, however, reportedly suggest that the electric vehicle maker will only post a gain of $0.31 per share.

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Analysts polled by the FactSet, however, expect Tesla to see an EPS of $0.41 per share on revenues of $21.27 billion, as noted in an Investors’ Business Daily report.

Tesla Stock So Far

Tesla stock reached as high as $488.54 per share in 2024, though it is trading at around $240 per share as of writing. Tesla stock has been naturally volatile, however, so it is prone to notable moves depending on its Q1 earnings.

If the numbers are good, Tesla stock could easily gap up, but if they are disappointing, it would not be surprising if TSLA shares gap down.

FSD, New Vehicle Updates

Tesla is expected to launch a dedicated robotaxi service this June in Austin, Texas. The company has also been hinting at more affordable models that will be launched in the first half of 2025. Expectations are high that CEO Elon Musk will share some updates on these projects, particularly the rollout of Tesla’s FSD Unsupervised system.

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Elon Musk

Tesla sits at a ‘crossroads,’ Wedbush says by listing six negatives

Wedbush is still bullish on Tesla, but says Elon Musk needs to make a choice between DOGE and the car company.

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Credit: Tesla

According to Wedbush, Tesla is sitting at a “crossroads” as it nears its Q1 2025 Earnings Call on Tuesday.

Although the company’s Earnings Calls have been primarily focused on the financials and accomplishments of the past quarter, Tesla is approaching this one differently.

Tesla has even said that this Earnings Call will feature a “company update,” and as most believe it will detail plans for future models and production timelines, others have different expectations and beliefs over what could be said.

Tesla still on track to release more affordable models in 1H25

Wedbush’s Dan Ives believes Tesla is at a crossroads and outlined his six biggest concerns for the company since CEO Elon Musk took on a role within the White House at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE):

  1. Tesla has now unfortunately become a political symbol globally of the Trump Administration/DOGE
  2. Tesla’s stock has been crushed since Trump stepped back into the White House
  3. Brand damage to Musk/Tesla resulted in a terrible 1Q delivery number, with much lower 2025 deliveries on the horizon
  4. Protests and violence against Tesla dealerships/owners have erupted around the globe
  5. 25% auto tariffs have been enacted, delaying future lower-cost models for Tesla, even though Musk is vocally against the tariffs for obvious reasons
  6. Potentially 15%-20% permanent demand destruction for future Tesla buyers due to the brand damage Musk has created with DOGE

Ives has held onto the idea that Musk’s involvement has made Tesla synonymous with the Trump administration, but that only seems to be true for those who share ideologies that oppose what the White House is doing.

Others are able to differentiate between the two, noting that Tesla is not a Trump organization, and vice versa.

Of course, there are negative sides to Musk splitting his time between the two and having ties to the President. Politically, it is hard to appease everyone.

Despite this, Wedbush’s Ives said the firm still remains bullish on Tesla:

“So why stay bullish? It’s a great question. We believe Tesla along with Nvidia are two of the most disruptive technology companies on the globe over the coming years. The unparalleled innovation, engineering scale, autonomous roadmap, and robotics future will unleash massive valuation upside over the coming years in our view. BUT….Musk needs to leave the government, take a major step back on DOGE, and get back to being CEO of Tesla full-time. Tesla is Musk and Musk is Tesla….and anyone that thinks the brand damage Musk has inflicted is not a real thing….spend some time speaking to car buyers in the US, Europe, and Asia…you will think differently after those discussions.”

Ives said that Musk needs to lay out the timing and rollout plans for the unsupervised Full Self-Driving and for the affordable vehicle platform, which was set for release in the first half of the year.

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Tesla “best positioned” for Trump tariffs among automakers: analyst

Ives has a price target of $315 per share for the electric vehicle maker.

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Credit: Tesla

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives recently shared his thoughts about Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) amidst the Trump administration’s tariffs. As per Ives, Tesla is best-positioned relative to its rivals when it comes to the ongoing tariff issue.

Ives has a price target of $315 per share for the electric vehicle maker.

Best Positioned

During an interview with Yahoo Finance, the segment’s hosts asked about his thoughts on Tesla, especially considering Musk’s work with the Trump administration. Musk has previously stated that the effects of tariffs on Tesla are significant due to parts that are imported from abroad.

“When it comes to the tariff issue, they are actually best positioned relative to the Detroit Big Three and others and obviously foreign automakers. Still impacted, Musk has talked about that, in terms of just auto parts,” Ives stated.

China and Musk

Ives also stated that ultimately, a big factor for Tesla in the coming months may be the Chinese market’s reactions to its tariff war. He also noted that the next few quarters will be pivotal for Tesla considering the brand damage that Elon Musk has incited due to his politics and work with the Trump administration.

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“When it comes to Tesla, I think the worry is where does retaliatory look like in China, in terms of buying domestic. I think that’s something that’s a play. And they have a pivotal six months head, in terms of what everything we see in Austin, autonomous, and the buildout. 

“But the brand issues that Musk self-inflicted is dealing with in terms of demand destruction in Europe and the US. And that’s why this is a key few quarters ahead for Tesla and also for Musk to make, in my opinion, the right decision to take a step back from the administration,” Ives noted.

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