Investor's Corner
Tesla Investor Day is key to further stock growth, Morgan Stanley says
Tesla Investor Day on March 1 will be a key factor in furthering the company’s stock growth, Morgan Stanley said in a new note to investors.
While Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) continues to rebound after a sluggish 2022, Morgan Stanley is undoubtedly impressed with the automaker’s recovery in 2023. However, the firm, led by analyst Adam Jonas, said the “window of opportunity” has closed in terms of valuation, and Tesla will need to present something relatively substantial at its Investor Day event in March:
“While we reiterate the Overweight rating on Tesla shares, we believe the window of opportunity on ‘valuation’ has closed. Further upside from here will require a more substantial narrative change following the March 1st Investor Day.”
Tesla has utilized its leverage in high margins to adjust prices accordingly in 2023, which has undoubtedly surged the company’s demand. Tesla has never had a demand problem, according to CEO Elon Musk, just a supply issue as the company has struggled to keep up with its evergrowing order log.
Despite this, Tesla made moves with its pricing early in 2023, cutting Model Y marks by $13,000. Other cars had price cuts as well, and Tesla even adjusted its figures in other markets, like China, which saw a 13.5 percent decrease after the New Year.
-->With the Model Y’s entire lineup recently being included in the IRS’s list of vehicles qualifying for federal tax incentives, it gives buyers even more reason to purchase the car. However, an increase in demand is not what Morgan Stanley is looking for.
Invitations for the March 1st Investor Day were sent out earlier this week, and the casting design featured on the invites triggered a variety of theories and guesses as to what the main sentiment of the event will be. However, whatever it is, Morgan Stanley and Jonas said in their note that potential catalysts stemming from the Master Plan Part 3 would have to give investors another layer of belief that substantial growth is possible moving forward.
Even still, the note also entails that, while Tesla may need something relatively groundbreaking moving forward to justify another spike in valuation, the company still maintains a healthy lead over its competitors.
Jonas notes that Tesla shares are up 68 percent this year, while Lucid and Rivian are up 51 and 5 percent, respectively. “Tesla will, short term, invest their margin into price (lower) while, longer term, we expect Tesla will invest their innovation into margin.”
Additionally, Jonas stated that Tesla has specific leverage over competitors:
-->“At the same time, we remain concerned about the ability of EV competitors (startups and legacy players) to withstand the cost and scale advantages Tesla enjoys as it continues to drive prices lower and share higher in a potential shakeout for the EV industry.”
Companies like Ford, Lucid, and others have also adjusted prices to keep up with Tesla, while companies like Volvo, Volkswagen, and General Motors have denied that price cuts are the answer to compete with the EV leader. Regardless of the pricing strategies the companies employ, Tesla is likely still the most suitable options in terms of charging infrastructure, as well as EV software and tech.
Morgan Stanley reiterated its ‘Overweight’ rating with a $220 price target.
Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
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Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
-->Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
-->It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Tesla bear gets blunt with beliefs over company valuation
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