Investor's Corner
Tesla investors should ‘enjoy it while it lasts,’ says man who predicted 2007 housing collapse
Tesla stock will come crumbling down, at least that’s what Michael Burry, the man who predicted the 2007 United States housing bubble’s collapse in 2007, says.
Burry’s status as a financial prediction guru was captured in “The Big Short,” a novel turned into a Hollywood hit starring Steve Carrell and Christian Bale, who played Burry in the film. After putting an over $5 billion short on the housing market to collapse in 2007, Burry and his investors took away billions of dollars in gains, and he is predicting the same thing to happen to Tesla soon.
“Well, my last Big Short got bigger and bigger and BIGGER too,” Burry said in a now-deleted Tweet. “Enjoy it while it lasts,” he added.
In December, Burry became the most recent big-time investor to publicly admit that he was shorting Tesla stock, a move that cost those in the position over $38 billion in 2020 due to the electric automaker’s over 700% gain on Wall Street during the year. It was an unlikely scenario: a car company with limited production facilities trying to sell electric cars in the middle of a pandemic. Despite this, Tesla shares continued to rise, and 2021 is appearing to be no different.
Earlier this week, Tesla officially passed Facebook for the sixth-most valuable company in the world based on market capitalization. Additionally, the surge in stock price so far in 2021 has made Elon Musk, the company’s CEO, the richest person in the world. He officially passed Amazon frontman Jeff Bezos for the #1 spot on Thursday.
Burry’s December tweet that revealed his short position was reminiscent of an email that was sent out by CEO Elon Musk, where he stated the company could be “crushed like a souffle.” “Sell that #TeslaSouffle,” Burry tweeted after stating the company had “a current ridiculous price.”
Tesla is no stranger to short-sellers, though. Through the years, the automaker has been called every name in the book by notorious hedge fund managers and investment gurus who are convinced that Tesla is on its way down. Several of these investors have admitted defeat in their mission to make money off of Tesla’s downfall. Still, several are sticking to their guns, even though it has already cost them millions of dollars.
David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital Re is one of them. Einhorn has traded barbs with Musk on Twitter for the public to feast on in the past, but despite his very public losses that he reported during his fund’s Q3 Earnings, he still cannot seem to trim back his short position. Tesla was a main contributor to the 14.9% decrease Einhorn saw in gross written premiums, the 10.7% decrease in net premiums, and a $22.8 million loss during the first nine months of 2020.
Tesla has continued to scale its production, figure out efficiencies in manufacturing, and continue on an already widely-successful product with its electric vehicles. The automaker’s focus in 2020 was battery cells and production, and it outlined its roadmap to making EVs affordable in the coming years through mass-production of EV cells. Tesla is the most successful EV company globally, dominating market share in many countries, and contributing to an accelerated transition to sustainable transportation. While some in the world are telling you to sell, the big winners are reiterating their desire for investors to get in while they can, supporting a company whose mission is much larger than money.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Tesla takes a step towards removal of Robotaxi service’s safety drivers
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
