Elon Musk spent some time trolling Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) skeptics following the company’s 23 percent boost over the past month.

Tesla’s rally on Wall Street over the past several weeks has completely erased any losses investors felt since the start of 2025. So far this year, shares have risen by over 13 percent.

Most of this has been evident over the past month, as the company has seen a nearly 25 percent increase in the past thirty days.

With the imminent abolishment of the $7,500 EV tax credit, some analysts and investors expected the stock to take a hit. It is no secret that the tax credit’s expiration will impact demand to some extent. In the short term, it has been strong for the company’s delivery outlook in Q3.

Musk trolled those who thought the stock would respond negatively to the tax credit going away:

A lot of people thought Tesla stock would collapse as the tax credits came to an end this month.

Guess not.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 25, 2025

The strength of Tesla shares over the past several weeks has prompted several analysts to adjust price targets and their firms’ overall outlook with the company’s automotive division, as well as its other projects.

Mizuho analysts pushed their price target from $375 to $450, mostly due to Tesla’s strength moving forward as a leader in the U.S. EV market.

Vijay Rakesh, managing director at the firm, wrote in a note to investors:

“We see TSLA maintaining key leadership in the U.S. BEV market despite some near-term challenges.”

Mizuho raises Tesla (TSLA) price target on stronger 2026 outlook

Some of this strength relies on the rollout of the lower-cost “Model 2,” which Tesla said it built the first production units of in its Q2 Earnings Shareholder Deck.

Goldman Sachs also increased its Tesla price target from $300 to $395, which is still below the current trading levels.

However, the firm is more bullish on the company’s humanoid robotics and autonomy projects:

“If Tesla can have [an] outsized share in areas such as humanoid robotics and autonomy, then there could be upside to our price target.”

Tesla shares are currently trading at $424.54 at the time of publication.

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) could deliver a stronger-than-expected third quarter, as per Wolfe Research, which stated that the EV maker’s vehicle deliveries could reach between 465,000 and 470,000 units this Q3 2025. 

Such results would represent a 22% increase from Q2, topping consensus estimates of 445,000. “Q3 is poised to be a strong quarter,” the firm noted.

U.S. and China demand

In the U.S., Wolfe attributed part of the volume lift to consumers accelerating purchases ahead of the expiration of a $7,500 federal EV tax credit. The firm is also optimistic about China’s deliveries, which the firm noted is trending above prior expectations. Wolfe estimated 165,000–170,000 deliveries in China for the third quarter, or about 10,000 more than its earlier forecast, as noted n a Yahoo Finance report.

The firm noted that these figures do not yet include meaningful contributions from the newly launched Model Y L. “We estimate 165-170k deliveries in Q3, or ~10k above our prior est,” Wolfe stated, though these volumes “largely do not reflect the recent launch of the Model Y L.”

Earnings outlook

Wolfe noted that it expects Tesla’s Q3 earnings per share to fall between $0.55 and $0.60, which is above the current consensus of $0.49 per share. The firm forecasts automotive gross margins, excluding regulatory credits, of about 16.5% to 17%. 

Looking ahead, Wolfe warned that Q4 could prove more challenging due to U.S. demand being pulled forward by tax incentives. Still, Wolfe suggested that factors like stronger seasonal demand in China and Europe could become tailwinds that could help the company’s volumes in the fourth quarter. The ramp and rollout of the Model Y L and upcoming affordable models could also help bolster the company’s Q4 volumes.

A Wall Street firm is making a shocking move ahead of Tesla’s Q3 delivery report, increasing its forecast for the quarter.

Tesla is set to report its deliveries for the third quarter sometime next week at the beginning of October. There has been quite a bit of speculation about Tesla’s performance in terms of deliveries for the quarter, as many firms and investors are curious about how strong it could be.

There have been a few things working in Tesla’s favor, including the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which stimulated demand as consumers wanted to take advantage of the discount before it was no longer available.

🚨 Wall Street firm UBS lifted its Q3 delivery forecast for Tesla $TSLA to 475,000 units from 431,000 units.

UBS believes there will be “strong deliveries in the US as Tesla pushes, and consumers take advantage of, the $7,500 IRA EV tax credit before its expiry at the end of… pic.twitter.com/lKmvvvi3Hl

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) September 23, 2025

Tesla also has launched an attractive revamp to the Model Y this year, which was the best-selling car in the world for the past two years. These two points have helped Tesla with demand specifically this year, but this quarter has been especially strong because of the tax credit phase-out.

With that being said, one Wall Street firm chose to push its delivery prediction for the third quarter up about ten percent.

Tesla makes a big change to reflect new IRS EV tax credit rules

UBS analysts said they adjusted their delivery targets for Tesla from 431,000 to 475,000, stating it was “more in line with buyside expectations in the 470-475k range.”

The firm continued:

“[The company should have] strong deliveries in the US as Tesla pushes, and consumers take advantage of, the $7,500 IRA EV tax credit before its expiry at the end of September 2025.” 

If it manages to reach what UBS thinks it will, deliveries would be the highest for Tesla since late 2024, and the firm believes it could “potentially [be] the highest ever” for the company in a single quarter.

Tesla delivered over 495,000 cars in Q4 2024, so it would truly need an anomaly to capture that crown in Q3.

For the full year, UBS believes Tesla will deliver 1.62 million cars in 2025.