Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) first-quarter earnings call comes on the heels of an impressive quarter that saw the electric car maker post $10.389 billion in revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.93, beating Wall Street’s expectations. With these results, Tesla has now maintained its profitability for seven straight consecutive quarters.
As revealed in the company’s Q1 2021 Update Letter, the company hit some notable milestones in the first quarter. The Model 3 became the world’s best-selling premium sedan, electric or otherwise. The Model Y is also showing a lot of potential, with the vehicle’s production ramp going well in Gigafactory Shanghai. Deliveries for the Model S Plaid are expected shortly as well, and the Tesla Semi, a Class 8 truck that has seen delays, is now poised for a 2021 release.
The following are live updates from Tesla’s Q1 2021 earnings call. I will be updating this article in real-time, so please keep refreshing the page to view the latest updates on this story. The first entry starts at the bottom of the page.
15:41 PT – And that wraps up Tesla’s Q1 2021 earnings call! Overall, Elon Musk and team seemed to be a bit cautious this time around, with timeframes for projects like the 4680 cells being conservative. Tesla also did not provide a specific forecast for 2021’s vehicle deliveries. But considering the ongoing supply challenges, this may not be a bad strategy at all.
Anyway, thanks for staying with us for another live blog! These are always fun. Until the next time!
15:40 PT – Dan Levy from Credit Suisse asked about Tesla and its ongoing cost reductions. Tesla notes that building cars is a complex process, though if one were to look at the advancements in the production of the company’s vehicles like the Model Y, there are a lot of innovations happening there, which should improve COGS.
When asked about Fremont vs the Gigafactories, the analyst asked about how Tesla’s new capacity would differ from the previous NUMMI plant. Musk notes that Tesla does not talk much about future product developments. “We’ll get there. We’ll provide it later,” Musk said.
15:34 PT – Rod Lache of Wolfe Research LLC asks about the FSD rollout, such as the subscription model and its impact. Kirkhorn noted that Tesla is working on rolling out FSD subscriptions, though there are some aspects of the service that still need work. “We’re hoping to get this launch pretty soon, and see what the response is to it,” he said.
15:33 PT – Ferragu asks a follow up about Tesla’s energy business. According to Musk, Tesla has comparable margins in energy and vehicles though it should be noted that the company’s EV business is more mature than the energy segment. Powerwall is mature, however, so the margins there are pretty good. “We have a clear runway for improving the cost of the Megapack,” Musk said.
15:30 PT – Analyst questions start. First up is New Street Research’s Pierre Ferragu. He asks about the 4680 battery line (YES!). He asks about capacity, as well as where the company stands in its ramp.
Musk notes that Tesla has a small pilot plant for the 4680 cells with a 10 GWh per year capacity. “We’re not yet at a point where we think the cells are reliable enough to be put in cars. We think we’re close to that point. We’ve already ordered the equipment for battery production in Berlin and Austin as well. We’re down to the nitty gritty on this. I’m confident that we’d achieve volume production of the 4680 next year,” Musk said.
Musk also added that it appears that Tesla is about 12 or not more than 18 months away from volume production of the 4680 cells. At the same time, Tesla is also looking to ramp the 4680 cells with its existing suppliers. The 4680 revolution is not a Tesla-only thing. It will involve CATL and LG and Panasonic as well. Ultimately, Tesla is on track to more than double the output from suppliers.
15:24 PT – An inquiry about vehicle production is asked. Musk notes that people still do not understand the difficulties of production. “Prototypes are child’s play,” he said, noting that mass-production is insanely difficult. Musk notes that Tesla is the first company to achieve volume production of cars in a hundred years and not go bankrupt. “Tesla has had several aneurysms to get this done,” Musk said.
Musk shared some of the challenges that Tesla experienced over the years, from production stops due to trivial items like carpets and USB ports. “Solving those constraints is insane,” Musk reiterated.
15:16 PT – An inquiry about vampire drain was asked. Musk notes that vampire drain is not an issue. “We’ve got a long way to go before we’re dealing with season technology issues,” he said.
15:15 PT – An inquiry about MSM FUD is asked. Elon comments on the “extremely deceptive” media coverage of the Texas crash. According to Lars Moravy, VP of Vehicle Engineering, Tesla is working with Texas authorities about the high-profile, tragic accident. Tesla has conducted a study to understand what happened in the crash together with authorities. As per the findings, it appears that the steering wheel was deformed, and someone was in the driver’s seat during the crash. All seatbelts were unbuckled in the car.
15:11 PT – A question about digital currencies are asked for Zachary Kirkhorn. He reiterates Tesla’s Bitcoin investment and eventual sale, as well as the company’s decision to support Bitcoin for payments. According to Kirkhorn, Tesla had been looking for a place to store its cash. Bitcoin presented itself as a preferable avenue for such an endeavor, considering that traditional systems simply provide far less.
“Bitcoin was a good place to put Tesla cash and be able to get some return on it,” he said. Considering that Tesla added over $200 million from its investment in a few months, this decision definitely seems well worth it. “We’ve been pleased with how much liquidity there is in the Bitcoin market. We do we believe long-term in the value of Bitcoin,” Kirkhorn said.
15:08 PT – Musk continues to discuss the Powerwall’s potential, noting that the home battery’s virtual power plant capabilities are profound. This is especially notable considering that the world is now heading towards an era where EVs are the norm. With this in mind, there has to be a way to produce more electricity to meet the demand that would be produced by an all-electric future.
Considering Tesla’s mission, this shift would be beneficial to the company. “This is a prosperous future for Tesla and for utilities ,” he said. Otherwise, we will see more of what happened in Texas earlier this year. “If this is not done, utilities won’t be able to serve their customers. We’ll see a lot more of what we saw in Texas and California,” Musk said.
15:05 PT – Next question is up. This time it’s about the Solar Roof, its price increase, and its ramp. Musk notes that Solar Roof demand is strong, though he admits that Tesla has made mistakes in evaluating the difficulties in assessing the difficulty of installing the solar tiles. “You can’t have a one size fits all system,” he said.
Musk reiterated Tesla’s decision to bundle the Powerwall and its solar products, adding that batteries produced last year have a higher peak capability. With the bundle in place, musk states that the difficulty of installations would be much easier. Installers would not even need to touch the house’s circuit breaker. This, according to Musk, is important for scalability.
15:00 PT – Elon notes that Tesla is actually getting good at auto-labeling, which is pretty much the holy grail for neural net training. This is something that Dojo would be designed for.
“We think Dojo would be probably an order of magnitude more cost-efficient in hardware and energy usage compared to the next best solution we’re aware of. Possibly it could be used by others,“ Musk remarked, adding that “Probably others would want to use it too. And if they do, we’d make it available.”
14:57 PT – Retail investors from Say begin. First up is a question about Dojo. Elon notes that right now, people think Tesla is a car and energy company, but in the long run, people will likely see Tesla as a robotics company. “I think we are developing some of the strongest hardware and software teams in the world,” he said. And if one were to look at Tesla’s tech evolution, Tesla came to a point where it needed something more powerful than what the market offers.
It then makes sense for Tesla to create a supercomputer that would help train its neural nets. “If you have a system that has very good eyes, which can see in all directions at once, never gets tired, has redundancy, and whose reaction time is superhuman, then such a system would achieve a high level of safety,” Musk said, describing the thinking behind Project Dojo. With over a million cars, after all, that’s a lot of data. And next year, this would grow to two million.
14:53 PT – Tesla has trimmed its Bitcoin investment by 10%, resulting in a profit of $272 million.
14:50 PT – Zachary Kirkhorn explains the Model S and Model X delays, noting that the delays are a meaningful headwind for the company’s finances. He also highlights that Tesla is experiencing some challenges with the ongoing global supply shortage, though the company is working with its partners to address them.
14:48 PT – Elon adds that Model X should ramp in Q3 2021. “We’re going to aim to produce 2,000 Model S and Model X per week,” Musk said. He also adds that he believes that the two flagship cars would see a lot of demand.
Musk also highlighted that the new Model S and Model X are actually cheaper to produce. Giga Berlin and Giga Texas would likely see volume production next year. In closing, he thanks the Tesla team for their efforts.
14:45 PT – Elon notes that solving FSD is a matter of having a massive data set. And in this case, Tesla has an edge with its large fleet of over a million cars on the road. This should help the company handle edge cases. “It’s quite tricky, but we’re highly confident that we’ll get this (FSD) done,” Musk said.
“Q1 had some of the most difficult supply chain challenges that we’ve ever experienced at Tesla,” Musk said, describing the ongoing chip shortage currently plaguing the auto industry.
As for Model S and Model X, Musk notes that there are more challenges than expected. Musk lists some improvements coming to the vehicles, such as their new interior, battery pack, electric motor, and features. Elon adds that Tesla is just making refinements to cars that are already built. A ramp is coming likely in May.
14:40 PT – The Q1 earnings call begins. Martin Viecha takes the floor. Elon Musk, Zachary Kirkhorn, and a number of executives are present in the call. Opening remarks from Elon Musk. He highlights that Q1 was a record quarter for Tesla. He says that Tesla has seen a shift in the perception for EVs, and demand has been even more formidable than ever. “Demand is the best we’ve ever seen,” he said. This is the reason why Q1 became such an outlier compared to past first quarters, which tended to be softer than other quarters.
Elon also mentions the Model 3’s victory in the premium sedan market, beating veterans like the BMW 3-Series. As for the Model Y, the CEO states that the vehicle has a chance of becoming the best-selling car in the world of any kind. Elon estimates that this would happen sometime in 2022. As for FSD, the Beta has been making progress, though Musk admits that it is one of the most difficult technical problems out there. Elon also emphasizes Tesla’s vision-only approach, reiterating his previous statements on Twitter about radar eventually being retired.
14:32 PT – Of course it’s on Elon Time. 😀
14:30 PT – And… it’s time! Butts in seats, everyone.
14:28 PT – And the earnings call stream is live. We’re now treated with some classical music. Definitely a celebratory air here.
14:25 PT – Now that the Tesla Semi has been announced to be on track for a 2021 release, perhaps we’d see more updates on the release of the next-generation Roadster too? The Semi and new Roadster were unveiled at the same time, after all.
14:20 PT – While the Q1 Update Letter is rife with information, there are quite a number of things that were not mentioned as much. A big one is the company’s 4680 battery cell production developments and plans, which were notably absent in the Update Letter. Hopefully, we can get some nice tidbits of information about the 4680 cells in the earnings call. Crossing our fingers.
14:15 PT – Good day, everyone, and welcome to another live blog of Tesla’s earnings call! We all knew that this quarter would be special when the Q1 vehicle delivery and production numbers came out. Even Wall Street was optimistic about the company’s numbers. Well, the Q1 results are here, and they are actually better than expected. Tesla soundly beat Wall Street’s expectations for revenue and EPS. Though in true Tesla fashion, TSLA stock has now dipped around 1.9% after hours.
Don’t hesitate to contact us for news tips. Just send a message to tips@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.
Elon Musk
SpaceX’s Anthropic deal has a catch, and Elon Musk just addressed it
Elon Musk says SpaceX’s Anthropic compute deal cuts both ways after Chamath floats higher prices.
Elon Musk pushed back on Sunday against the idea that SpaceX’s compute contract with Anthropic is a one way bet, after venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya argued the company could use a termination clause to charge the AI lab far more.
“It works both ways, of course. If compute becomes plentiful and cheap, SpaceX revenue will drop. No crying in the casino for either party,” Musk wrote on X Sunday evening, replying to a clip of Palihapitiya’s comments shared by AI commentator Rohan Paul.
On the All-In podcast released Sunday, Palihapitiya said either side can walk away from the agreement on 90 days’ notice. If data center supply tightens, he argued, SpaceX could exercise that option and bring the contract back at two to three times the current price, and Anthropic would have little choice but to accept. He called it “the kingmaking move,” according to BigGo Finance.
The clause itself is not new. SpaceX disclosed in its IPO filings in May that Anthropic would pay $1.25 billion per month for dedicated capacity at its Colossus clusters through May 2029, nearly $45 billion in total, with both companies able to terminate on 90 days’ notice, as Teslarati reported at the time. SpaceX’s later compute deals with Google and Reflection AI carry similar exit terms.
What has changed is the political backdrop. Palihapitiya’s thesis rests on incoming Democratic governors pulling tax incentives for data centers and slowing new construction. In Texas, Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa campaigned on a moratorium on new data center approvals, and Deutsche Bank analysts warned last week that SpaceX’s Texas compute capacity could face delays. SpaceX and Tesla shares both fell after the midterm results.
A slowdown would favor companies that already own capacity. SpaceX acquired xAI in February and has been renting data centers to outside AI labs before the space is needed for Grok. At the Baron Investment Conference on Friday, Musk said SpaceX was “getting 50 billion a year for 35 billion dollar investments” and that it can bring a data center online in eight or nine months, compared to two and a half years for competitors. He also said SpaceX is tracking toward an annualized revenue rate above $100 billion in December, with a “best guess” of $500 billion by December 2027.
Musk’s reply points to the other side of the clause. Anthropic has signed large compute agreements with Amazon, Google and Microsoft, and if that capacity comes online faster than new construction slows, the AI lab would have its own leverage to renegotiate or leave. Musk has called Anthropic “obviously currently the leader in AI,” and it remains one of SpaceX’s largest compute customers.
SpaceX shares rose more than 2 percent in overnight trading late Sunday after closing Friday at $134.27, according to Stocktwits.
Tesla and SpaceX shares fell on Wednesday after Democrats swept both chambers of Congress. The decline stood out as broader market securities recovered and turned positive, while both of Musk’s publicly traded companies lagged.
CEO Elon Musk already joked about the unsuccessful campaigning for the Republicans, but now the new party will make pretty drastic changes to how it handles Tesla and SpaceX, and those companies will adjust their outlook.
Let’s take a deeper look.
Tesla ($TSLA)
Tesla shares traded lower during the regular session after Democrats secured both the House and Senate. The stock was down 2.32 percent at around 1:45 p.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $389.30.
The pressure is tied to more than the raw scale of Musk’s political spending, estimated at $450–474 million this cycle with roughly $224 million directed at Texas. In that state, Tesla now faces a Democratic governor and a Democratic senator after Gina Hinojosa unseated Greg Abbott and James Talarico defeated Ken Paxton.
The Austin Gigafactory, Robotaxi pilot programs in multiple Texas cities, and any related AI compute expansion sit under a new state executive who campaigned against certain corporate subsidies and floated a moratorium on new data-center construction.
Federally, Democratic control of key committees opens the door to deeper examination of Tesla’s autonomous-driving safety record, federal energy-storage and manufacturing incentives, and the national-security implications of any combination with SpaceX.
Investors are also weighing whether the company’s historically close alignment with the prior Republican leadership will invite slower permitting, additional hearings, or tighter rules on Full Self-Driving deployment.
For Tesla, the political shift adds near-term friction around state permitting and federal regulatory approvals for autonomy and energy storage. A potential merger with SpaceX may face slower review even if it proceeds.
Core growth drivers such as vehicle deliveries, energy deployments, and robotaxi rollout remain intact, yet the stock now carries a higher political-risk premium that could weigh on valuation until the company demonstrates workable relationships with the new Texas leadership and congressional majorities.
SpaceX ($SPCX)
SpaceX shares also declined in live trading on November 4 following the Democratic midterm sweep. The stock traded at $134.97, down 4.49 percent. The drop occurred even as broader indexes stabilized, highlighting a company-specific reaction to the election outcome.
Musk’s large contributions, concentrated in Texas races that both companies lost, place SpaceX’s Starbase launch facility and headquarters under a new Democratic governor.
At the federal level, Democratic control of Congress enables greater scrutiny of NASA, the Department of Defense, and other contracts that support a meaningful share of revenue, along with reviews of Starlink national-security uses and any Tesla merger. Analysts have noted that empowered committees can hold hearings and request documents on these relationships.
For SpaceX, the results raise the risk of delayed contract awards, higher compliance costs, and tighter constraints on AI and satellite infrastructure expansion, particularly in Texas where a data-center moratorium has been discussed.
A merger with Tesla could encounter political friction that slows integration of launch, connectivity, and autonomy capabilities.
While Starlink growth and launch cadence continue as primary drivers, the company faces a more contested path for federal funding and state-level operations, requiring management to rebuild ties with the new congressional majorities and Texas leadership to limit the overhang.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk calls Earth’s data centers “peanuts” next to what SpaceX is planning in orbit
Elon Musk says SpaceX capex efficiency is underestimated as orbital data centers loom by 2028.
Elon Musk is pushing back on one of the biggest worries hanging over SpaceX stock. In a reply on X on Sunday, Musk said the company’s capital expenditure efficiency is severely underestimated. He was responding to a Milk Road Stocks post citing analyst Kyle Reidhead, who estimates SpaceX will need to spend roughly $470 billion over the next five quarters.
Reidhead built that figure around the target SpaceX set on its third quarter earnings call: 13 gigawatts or more of compute by the end of 2027. In his breakdown, Nvidia captures 83 to 89 percent of the spending. SpaceX ended the quarter with 1.7 GW of nameplate compute and guided to $35 billion to $40 billion in fourth quarter capex, as Teslarati reported.
Musk did not attach a number to his claim, but the earnings call shows the argument. CFO Bret Johnsen said new compute currently pays for itself in under a year at today’s pricing, and Musk said that window could shrink to six months next year. Using that pace, Reidhead argues about $230 billion of the $470 billion could come from operating cash flow and about $60 billion from SpaceX’s roughly $90 billion cash pile, leaving around $180 billion to borrow. Musk confirmed last week that SpaceX had already closed a new $40 billion debt raise to buy GPUs.
The ground buildout is not the end goal. It is what is meant to pay for the move to orbit. Replying on Friday to charts built from Sequoia partner Shaun Maguire’s SpaceX model, Musk wrote that “Terrestrial compute will be peanuts compared to orbital compute,” adding that orbital compute deployed per month “probably exceeds terrestrial around the end of 2028 and then far exceeds it in 2029.”
Maguire’s model shows how steep that path is. It has capex climbing from $88 billion this year to $290 billion in 2027 and $369 billion in 2028, with SpaceX burning $77.8 billion in cash this year and $122.6 billion next year before turning $114.9 billion cash positive in 2028. Musk’s response to the model was, “I think we can do better.”
The orbital half runs through Starmind. SpaceX plans to operate up to 1 million AI satellites flying in clusters of about 10, linked by roughly 10 terabits of bandwidth, with deployment of thousands of units starting as soon as late 2027 out of its Gigasat factory in Bastrop, Texas, according to SpaceX’s space safety page. Musk has said each Starmind spacecraft will carry more than 250 kW of solar power.
Getting there depends on launch volume. Maguire’s model assumes 250 Starship flights in 2028, up from two this year and 38 next year. The nearer test is financial: SpaceX guided to $33 billion to $37 billion in first quarter 2027 revenue, more than double the $14.58 billion it booked in Q3, and Musk reposted that guidance again on Sunday morning.
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