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Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2019 production and delivery report: What Wall St analysts are saying

A snapshot from a drone flyover of the Tesla Fremont factory on June 29, 2018. [Credit: DarkSoldier 360/YouTube]

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Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) is surging on Wednesday on the heels of the release of the company’s Q2 2019 delivery and production report. With deliveries and production far exceeding forecasts from Wall St, several analysts have weighed in on the electric car maker’s record-setting quarter, which saw Tesla producing a total of 87,048 vehicles, comprised of 14,517 Model S and Model X, and 72,531 Model 3; and delivering a total of 95,200 cars, comprised of 17,650 Model S and X and 77,550 Model 3. 

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who quoted a “worst case” $10 price target on TSLA stock back in May, admitted that despite the number of leaked Elon Musk emails and reports pointing to a record quarter, Tesla’s over 95,000 vehicle deliveries were unexpected. “We had not spoken to any investors that expected deliveries to be this high. We expect the stock to squeeze and then fade on this news,” Jonas wrote in a note. Nevertheless, the analyst still pointed out that continued concerns about “sustainable” demand and competition in regions such as China would likely weigh down the stock. 

“It isn’t clear how much of the beat was due to underlying demand, more attractive pricing, sales bonuses, or pull-forward from (the) third quarter after tax credit reduction. Based on year-to-date deliveries, if Tesla achieves 95,000 units in the third and fourth quarters, it would take them to about 350,000 units for 2019, just shy of guidance of 360,000-400,000 units,” Jonas, who currently has an Equalweight rating on Tesla stock with a price target of $230 per share, noted

Nomura analyst Christopher Eberle, who has a Neutral rating and a $300 price target for TSLA, also weighed in on the electric car maker’s Q2 results. “Tesla noted that orders generated during the quarter exceeded deliveries, implying the company enters 3Q19 with an increase in its backlog,” he stated. Eberle remained cautious, adjusting his third-quarter delivery estimate by just 5% to 80,000 units. 

Joseph Osha of JMP Securities, who maintains a Market Perform rating and a $347 price target on the electric car maker, stated that he expects to see Tesla’s cash balance rise to $2.67 billion in the second quarter. Osha also argued that the second quarter results prove that the company’s lower-than-expected first quarter figures were not an indicator of real end demand in the United States. “Overall, the message we hear is that Tesla’s weak first quarter was not, in fact, an indicator of real end demand in the U.S. market. The combination of U.S. demand and export volume appears sufficient to support an outlook of ~380,000 deliveries this year, and our outlook for the second half of the year remains unchanged,” the analyst stated. 

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Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives, who has a Neutral rating and a $230 price target on Tesla stock, noted that the company’s strong Q2 delivery numbers were “a clear step in the right direction,” which could help restore the credibility of Elon Musk’s story. Ives was among the most vocal critics of Tesla following its first-quarter results, at one point calling Q1’s results “one of (the) top debacles we have ever seen.” Ives also mocked Tesla for maintaining its optimistic forecast for the rest of 2019, stating that “Musk & Co., in an episode out of the Twilight Zone, act as if demand and profitability will magically return to the Tesla story.” Prior to the release of Tesla’s Q2 2019 production and delivery report, Ives expected the company to deliver 84,001 vehicles. 

Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamberrino, one of TSLA’s most ardent critics who currently has a Sell rating and a $158 price target on the electric car maker, stood by his pessimistic outlook on the company. Tamberrino stated that “second-quarter deliveries and order flow were helped by the release of Tesla’s Standard Model 3 variant, right-hand drive Model 3s and the upcoming phasing out of U.S. tax incentives.” The Goldman Sachs analyst also expects a “sequential” stepdown in demand in the third quarter, on account of Tesla’s decision to offer lower-priced Model 3 variants and a leasing option, which he notes could have negative impacts on the vehicle’s gross margins and FCF generation. Interestingly, Tamberrino expected Tesla to deliver 91,124 vehicles in the second quarter (one of the highest on Wall Street, exceeding even that of Tesla bull and Baird analyst Ben Kallo), which is quite ironic considering his constant pessimistic stance against the electric car maker. Goldman Sachs’ investment bank is also among TSLA’s prominent shareholders

As of writing, Tesla stock is trading +6.13% at $238.31 per share.  

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Ron Baron states Tesla and SpaceX are lifetime investments

Baron, one of Tesla’s longest-standing bulls, reiterated that his personal stake in the company remains fully intact even as volatility pressures the broader market.

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Credit: @TeslaLarry/X

Billionaire investor Ron Baron says he isn’t touching a single share of his personal Tesla holdings despite the recent selloff in the tech sector. Baron, one of Tesla’s longest-standing bulls, reiterated that his personal stake in the company remains fully intact even as volatility pressures the broader market.

Baron doubles down on Tesla

Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Baron stated that he is largely unfazed by the market downturn, describing his approach during the selloff as simply “looking” for opportunities. He emphasized that Tesla remains the centerpiece of his long-term strategy, recalling that although Baron Funds once sold 30% of its Tesla position due to client pressure, he personally refused to trim any of his personal holdings.

“We sold 30% for clients. I did not sell personally a single share,” he said. Baron’s exposure highlighted this stance, stating that roughly 40% of his personal net worth is invested in Tesla alone. The legendary investor stated that he has already made about $8 billion from Tesla from an investment of $400 million when he started, and believes that figure could rise fivefold over the next decade as the company scales its technology, manufacturing, and autonomy roadmap.

A lifelong investment

Baron’s commitment extends beyond Tesla. He stated that he also holds about 25% of his personal wealth in SpaceX and another 35% in Baron mutual funds, creating a highly concentrated portfolio built around Elon Musk–led companies. During the interview, Baron revisited a decades-old promise he made to his fund’s board when he sought approval to invest in publicly traded companies.

“I told the board, ‘If you let me invest a certain amount of money, then I will promise that I won’t sell any of my stock. I will be the last person out of the stock,’” he said. “I will not sell a single share of my shares until my clients sold 100% of their shares. … And I don’t expect to sell in my lifetime Tesla or SpaceX.”

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Watch Ron Baron’s CNBC interview below.

@teslarati :rotating_light: This is why you need to use off-peak rates at Tesla Superchargers! #tesla #evcharging #fyp ♬ Blue Moon – Muspace Lofi
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‘You chose ambition’: Tesla Chair hails shareholders for backing Elon Musk’s vision

Denholm stated that the vote highlighted TSLA investors’ continued confidence in both Musk’s leadership and Tesla’s vision for an autonomous, AI-driven future.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm has issued a letter to shareholders celebrating what she described as “overwhelming support” at this year’s Annual Meeting, framing the approval of Elon Musk’s trillion-dollar pay plan as a defining moment in Tesla’s mission. 

Denholm stated that the vote highlighted TSLA investors’ continued confidence in both Musk’s leadership and Tesla’s vision for an autonomous, AI-driven future.

Denholm hails shareholder confidence

In her letter, which was posted by the electric vehicle maker on X through Tesla’s official handle, Denholm thanked investors for backing Proposals One, Three, and Four, items she said reaffirm Tesla’s “Master Plan Part IV” and its broader mission to accelerate sustainable prosperity. She characterized the shareholder vote as “a vote of confidence in our visionary leader, Elon,” crediting Musk with transforming Tesla into one of the most valuable companies in history.

“In a year when many tried to sow doubt and negativity, you chose a better future,” Denholm wrote. “You chose ambition. You chose to see what is possible. You chose to back the people who have been in the room since the earliest days, fighting for the mission that first brought us all together—a better world for humanity,” she wrote in her letter. 

Her comments framed Musk’s pay package approval not only as a governance milestone but as a symbolic endorsement of Tesla’s long-term trajectory across autonomy, AI, and energy innovation.

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“A whole new book” of innovation

Denholm highlighted Tesla’s push toward autonomy as the company’s next major growth phase, citing the Robotaxi program and Optimus humanoid robot as examples of bringing artificial intelligence “into the physical world.” She described this period as potentially “the largest value-creation event in Tesla’s history, and quite possibly in the history of humanity.”

The letter reaffirmed the board’s commitment to direct engagement with shareholders through Tesla’s online platform and live events. Denholm emphasized that feedback from investors “informs our strategy and strengthens us” as Tesla prepares for new technology rollouts and expanded AI capabilities.

“You, our shareholders, have given us the mandate and the runway to execute. We are humbled, and rest assured that we do not take that responsibility lightly… Thank you for believing in Tesla. Thank you for standing with us. We look forward to years of bold leadership and pioneering innovation, fueled by our commitment to creating a better future for all,” she wrote.

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Elon Musk

Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey endorses Elon Musk Tesla pay package

Dorsey framed the pay package as an engineering and governance crossroads for Tesla.

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Twitter co-founder and Square CEO Jack Dorsey has publicly backed Elon Musk’s leadership ahead of Tesla’s pivotal shareholder vote, which is expected to be decided later today at the company’s 2025 annual meeting. 

Dorsey framed the pay package as an engineering and governance crossroads for Tesla.

Dorsey’s public nod framed as an engineering defense of Musk

In a post on X, Dorsey weighed in on Tesla’s post about being in a “critical inflection point.” As per the Twitter-co-founder, the vote on Musk’s 2025 performance award is not about compensation. Instead, it’s about ensuring the path for the company’s engineering in the coming years. 

“This is not about compensation. it’s about ensuring a principled (and exciting!) engineering approach to the company’s future,” Dorsey wrote on his post, later stating that users of Cash app with TSLA shares would be able to vote for the CEO’s proposed 2025 performance award. 

Elon Musk appreciated Dorsey’s endorsement, responding to the Twitter co-founder’s post with a heart emoji. Musk has been pretty thankful for the support for is fellow tech executives, also thanking Michael Dell recently, who also advocated for its proposed 2025 performance award.

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Musk’s support

While Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award has received opposition from proxy advisors such as Glass Lewis and ISS, it has received quite a lot of support from longtime bulls such as ARK Invest, and, more recently, Schwab Asset Management following calls from TSLA retail shareholders. 

“Schwab Asset Management’s approach to voting on proxy matters is thorough and deliberate. We utilize a structured process that focuses on protecting and promoting shareholder value. We apply our own internal guidelines and do not rely on recommendations from Glass Lewis or ISS. In accordance with this process, Schwab Asset Management intends to vote in favor of the 2025 CEO performance award proposal. We firmly believe that supporting this proposal aligns both management and shareholder interests, ensuring the best outcome for all parties involved,” Charles Schwab told Teslarati.

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