Connect with us

Investor's Corner

Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2019 production and delivery report: What Wall St analysts are saying

A snapshot from a drone flyover of the Tesla Fremont factory on June 29, 2018. [Credit: DarkSoldier 360/YouTube]

Published

on

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) is surging on Wednesday on the heels of the release of the company’s Q2 2019 delivery and production report. With deliveries and production far exceeding forecasts from Wall St, several analysts have weighed in on the electric car maker’s record-setting quarter, which saw Tesla producing a total of 87,048 vehicles, comprised of 14,517 Model S and Model X, and 72,531 Model 3; and delivering a total of 95,200 cars, comprised of 17,650 Model S and X and 77,550 Model 3. 

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who quoted a “worst case” $10 price target on TSLA stock back in May, admitted that despite the number of leaked Elon Musk emails and reports pointing to a record quarter, Tesla’s over 95,000 vehicle deliveries were unexpected. “We had not spoken to any investors that expected deliveries to be this high. We expect the stock to squeeze and then fade on this news,” Jonas wrote in a note. Nevertheless, the analyst still pointed out that continued concerns about “sustainable” demand and competition in regions such as China would likely weigh down the stock. 

“It isn’t clear how much of the beat was due to underlying demand, more attractive pricing, sales bonuses, or pull-forward from (the) third quarter after tax credit reduction. Based on year-to-date deliveries, if Tesla achieves 95,000 units in the third and fourth quarters, it would take them to about 350,000 units for 2019, just shy of guidance of 360,000-400,000 units,” Jonas, who currently has an Equalweight rating on Tesla stock with a price target of $230 per share, noted

Nomura analyst Christopher Eberle, who has a Neutral rating and a $300 price target for TSLA, also weighed in on the electric car maker’s Q2 results. “Tesla noted that orders generated during the quarter exceeded deliveries, implying the company enters 3Q19 with an increase in its backlog,” he stated. Eberle remained cautious, adjusting his third-quarter delivery estimate by just 5% to 80,000 units. 

Joseph Osha of JMP Securities, who maintains a Market Perform rating and a $347 price target on the electric car maker, stated that he expects to see Tesla’s cash balance rise to $2.67 billion in the second quarter. Osha also argued that the second quarter results prove that the company’s lower-than-expected first quarter figures were not an indicator of real end demand in the United States. “Overall, the message we hear is that Tesla’s weak first quarter was not, in fact, an indicator of real end demand in the U.S. market. The combination of U.S. demand and export volume appears sufficient to support an outlook of ~380,000 deliveries this year, and our outlook for the second half of the year remains unchanged,” the analyst stated. 

Advertisement

Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives, who has a Neutral rating and a $230 price target on Tesla stock, noted that the company’s strong Q2 delivery numbers were “a clear step in the right direction,” which could help restore the credibility of Elon Musk’s story. Ives was among the most vocal critics of Tesla following its first-quarter results, at one point calling Q1’s results “one of (the) top debacles we have ever seen.” Ives also mocked Tesla for maintaining its optimistic forecast for the rest of 2019, stating that “Musk & Co., in an episode out of the Twilight Zone, act as if demand and profitability will magically return to the Tesla story.” Prior to the release of Tesla’s Q2 2019 production and delivery report, Ives expected the company to deliver 84,001 vehicles. 

Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamberrino, one of TSLA’s most ardent critics who currently has a Sell rating and a $158 price target on the electric car maker, stood by his pessimistic outlook on the company. Tamberrino stated that “second-quarter deliveries and order flow were helped by the release of Tesla’s Standard Model 3 variant, right-hand drive Model 3s and the upcoming phasing out of U.S. tax incentives.” The Goldman Sachs analyst also expects a “sequential” stepdown in demand in the third quarter, on account of Tesla’s decision to offer lower-priced Model 3 variants and a leasing option, which he notes could have negative impacts on the vehicle’s gross margins and FCF generation. Interestingly, Tamberrino expected Tesla to deliver 91,124 vehicles in the second quarter (one of the highest on Wall Street, exceeding even that of Tesla bull and Baird analyst Ben Kallo), which is quite ironic considering his constant pessimistic stance against the electric car maker. Goldman Sachs’ investment bank is also among TSLA’s prominent shareholders

As of writing, Tesla stock is trading +6.13% at $238.31 per share.  

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

Advertisement

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

Advertisement
Comments

Elon Musk

Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey endorses Elon Musk Tesla pay package

Dorsey framed the pay package as an engineering and governance crossroads for Tesla.

Published

on

Twitter co-founder and Square CEO Jack Dorsey has publicly backed Elon Musk’s leadership ahead of Tesla’s pivotal shareholder vote, which is expected to be decided later today at the company’s 2025 annual meeting. 

Dorsey framed the pay package as an engineering and governance crossroads for Tesla.

Dorsey’s public nod framed as an engineering defense of Musk

In a post on X, Dorsey weighed in on Tesla’s post about being in a “critical inflection point.” As per the Twitter-co-founder, the vote on Musk’s 2025 performance award is not about compensation. Instead, it’s about ensuring the path for the company’s engineering in the coming years. 

“This is not about compensation. it’s about ensuring a principled (and exciting!) engineering approach to the company’s future,” Dorsey wrote on his post, later stating that users of Cash app with TSLA shares would be able to vote for the CEO’s proposed 2025 performance award. 

Elon Musk appreciated Dorsey’s endorsement, responding to the Twitter co-founder’s post with a heart emoji. Musk has been pretty thankful for the support for is fellow tech executives, also thanking Michael Dell recently, who also advocated for its proposed 2025 performance award.

Advertisement

Musk’s support

While Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award has received opposition from proxy advisors such as Glass Lewis and ISS, it has received quite a lot of support from longtime bulls such as ARK Invest, and, more recently, Schwab Asset Management following calls from TSLA retail shareholders. 

“Schwab Asset Management’s approach to voting on proxy matters is thorough and deliberate. We utilize a structured process that focuses on protecting and promoting shareholder value. We apply our own internal guidelines and do not rely on recommendations from Glass Lewis or ISS. In accordance with this process, Schwab Asset Management intends to vote in favor of the 2025 CEO performance award proposal. We firmly believe that supporting this proposal aligns both management and shareholder interests, ensuring the best outcome for all parties involved,” Charles Schwab told Teslarati.

Continue Reading

Elon Musk

Tesla Robotaxi and autonomy dreams lean on shareholders: Wedbush

Published

on

Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East/X

Tesla’s dreams of developing a Robotaxi suite that utilizes a fully autonomous platform developed by the company’s top-tier talent now lean on shareholders and perhaps the most crucial vote in its history.

That’s what Dan Ives of Wedbush said in a new note to investors on Wednesday. As the Annual Shareholders’ Meeting is now just one day away, investors are down to their final chance to vote for or against Elon Musk’s new compensation plan.

Ives wrote that, while the company has made its intentions clear, wanting to maintain Musk, pay him accordingly, and give him the voting power he has long wanted, ultimately, the responsibility falls on investors.

As many retail shareholders have pushed for people to vote for Musk’s compensation package, there are a handful of large-scale funds and firms that have decided to go in another direction. Bullish Wall Street firms, Wedbush being one of them, believe it is crucial for Tesla to maintain Musk.

The vote could have major implications on whether Tesla launches an autonomous Robotaxi suite in the near future, Ives says:

“Getting Musk’s pay package approved tomorrow at the highly anticipated meeting will be a big step towards advancing Tesla’s future goals with the autonomous and Robotaxi roadmap ahead.”

While some investors are convinced the company is ready to go in a different direction simply based on Musk’s political involvement over the past year, many investors are under the impression that the development of Tesla’s autonomy suite, as well as its prowess in the EV sector, would fall if Elon were not at the helm.

Tesla’s Board of Directors has already stated that they have received confirmation that Musk’s political involvement would wind down in a timely manner. Moving forward, his focus will not veer from the mission of any of his companies; at least that’s what can be gathered from some of the Board’s communications over the past month.

Musk’s new compensation package is incentivized by performance metrics and will require him to achieve a handful of lofty tranches. He will not get paid unless he drives shareholder value, which is something many skeptics tend to leave out.

Ives continues:

“This new incentive-driven pay package for Musk would also provide an additional 423 million shares of common stock (~12% of shares), which would increase his ownership of Tesla up to ~25% voting power, which we believe was critical to keep Musk at the helm to lead Tesla through the most critical time in the company’s history. We believe this was the smart move by the Board to lay out these incentives/pay package at this key time as the biggest asset for Tesla is Musk…and with the AI Revolution, this is a crucial time for Tesla ahead with autonomous and robotics front and center.”

Wedbush maintained its Outperform rating and $600 price target on shares.

Continue Reading

Elon Musk

UPDATE: Tesla investors push Charles Schwab for Musk comp plan clarification

Published

on

tesla cybertruck elon musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk unveils futuristic Cybertruck in Los Angeles, Nov. 21, 2019 (Photo: Teslarati)

Update: 4:00 p.m. EDT – Charles Schwab has reached out to TESLARATI with the following statement, clarifying that it plans to vote FOR Musk’s compensation package:

“Schwab Asset Management’s approach to voting on proxy matters is thorough and deliberate. We utilize a structured process that focuses on protecting and promoting shareholder value. We apply our own internal guidelines and do not rely on recommendations from Glass Lewis or ISS. In accordance with this process, Schwab Asset Management intends to vote in favor of the 2025 CEO performance award proposal. We firmly believe that supporting this proposal aligns both management and shareholder interests, ensuring the best outcome for all parties involved.”
There have also been updates to the headline and various paragraphs to reflect this as well as accuracy.

Tesla investors are pushing Charles Schwab for clarification after it was expected to vote against CEO Elon Musk’s pay package.

Several high-profile Tesla influencers are speaking out against Charles Schwab, saying its decision to vote against the plan that would retain Musk as CEO and give him potentially more voting power if he can achieve the tranches set by the company’s Board of Directors.

The Tesla community appeared to see that Schwab is one firm that tends to vote against Musk’s compensation plans, as they also voted against the CEO’s 2018 pay package, which was passed by shareholders but then denied by a Delaware Chancery Court.

Schwab’s move was recognized by investors within the Tesla community and now they are speaking out about it:

At least six of Charles Schwab’s ETFs were expected to vote against Tesla’s Board recommendation to support the compensation plan for Musk. The six ETFs represent around 7 million Tesla $TSLA shares.

Jason DeBolt, an all-in Tesla shareholder, summarized the firm’s decision really well:

As a custodian of ETF shares, your fiduciary duty is to vote in shareholders’ best interests. For a board that has delivered extraordinary returns, voting against their recommendations doesn’t align with retail investors, Tesla employees, or the leadership we invested to support. If Schwab’s proxy voting policies don’t reflect shareholder interests, my followers and I will move our collective tens of millions in $TSLA shares (or possibly hundreds of millions) to a broker that does, via account transfer as soon as this week.”
Tesla shareholders will vote on Musk’s pay package on Thursday at the Annual Shareholders Meeting in Austin, Texas.

It seems more likely than not that it will pass, but investors have made it clear they want a decisive victory, as it could clear the path for any issues with shareholder lawsuits in the future, as it did with Musk’s past pay package.

Continue Reading

Trending