Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2020 earnings call: Top 4 things to watch out for
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) will report its Q2 2020 performance in an Earnings Call on Wednesday, July 22, 2020. Ahead of the call, investors and supporters of the electric automaker will be waiting to see if the company will turn its fourth straight profit, which would be a company record.
However, four things could ultimately affect Tesla’s performance during the second quarter of the year, which could lead to the company’s inclusion in the S&P 500 index. TheStreet believes that investors should pay attention to these four themes in the Q2 2020 Earnings Update Letter and Call.
1. Impact of Price Cuts
Tesla has reduced the prices of all four of its available vehicles so far in 2020. The move stimulated demand for the company’s electric cars, but analysts are conflicted about whether the strategy was a good business move or an indication that demand is lagging. However, it more than likely is not the latter, as Tesla managed to deliver 90,650 vehicles in the second quarter, beating Wall Street estimates handily. The company’s revenue for Q2 compared to its overall delivery figure for the quarter will give more insight into what the price cuts did to Tesla’s demand.
2. Free Cash Flow
TSLA shares have continued to rise in value nearly every day for the past few months. The run is particularly incredible because it has mainly occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, which continues to tear through the United States, where the electric automaker is based. With the company’s surge in price per share, Tesla has overtaken Toyota as the most valuable automaker in the world. The company’s bulls believe Tesla can scale production around the globe, and the company is certainly looking to do that. With plans to open another production facility in the U.S. soon, Giga Berlin under construction, and rumors of another Asian and U.K. located factory in the works, there is no reason to believe that the company can’t assume worldwide success.
3. China Demand
China has become one of the main parts of Tesla’s success as an automaker in 2020. The company currently only produces the Model 3 at Giga Shanghai now, but the vehicle has been selling well according to figures from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). Tesla will look to expand its production to the Model Y soon as it is building the Shanghai factory’s “Phase 2” currently. Dan Ives, an analyst for Wedbush Securities, said, “strong Model 3 demand out of China remains a ray of shining light (and we believe was a clear standout in 2Q) for Tesla in a dark global macro.” He also believes that Tesla could deliver 150,000 vehicles this year in China alone.
-->Giga Shanghai is currently holding a 200,000 annual vehicle production rate, Tesla said in the Q1 Earnings Call. It will be interesting to see if that number has increased.
4. Full-Year Outlook
Tesla has managed to power through the COVID-19 pandemic with relatively small amounts of damage. However, the company’s outlook for all of 2020 has not been updated. Both the Fremont and Shanghai production facilities were closed for one and a half months, and two weeks, respectively. The company expected to deliver 500,000 cars this year, but in the first half of the year, only 179,000 were successfully given to consumers. Tesla said it would modify its full-year guidance in Q2 during the Q1 Earnings Call, so the revisions to the company’s goals will likely be included with the Update Letter.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
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