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Tesla’s Q4 and Full Year 2018 financial report and earnings call: What to expect

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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is set to release its Q4 and Full Year 2018 financial results after markets close tomorrow, January 30. Following the release of its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results, the electric car maker is scheduled to hold its earnings call, which will begin at 2:30 p.m. Pacific Time (5:30 p.m. Eastern Time).

A lot is riding on Tesla’s results for the fourth quarter of 2018. To say that the past year has been challenging for the company is an understatement, with CEO Elon Musk describing the Model 3 ramp as one of the most difficult periods of his career. That said, despite a short-lived attempt at privatization, run-ins with the SEC, and clashes with mainstream media, Tesla surprised Wall Street on the third quarter when it posted a GAAP profit of $312 million. Since then, the company’s critics have been forced to change their narrative from “Tesla will never turn a profit” to “Tesla’s Q3 2018 results are as good as it ever will get.”

Elon Musk has proven to be quite conservative about Tesla’s fourth quarter results. In an email to employees earlier this month, Musk explained that Tesla’s third-quarter earnings were notably driven by a push to sell higher-priced variants of the Model 3 to North American customers. Musk noted that unaudited estimates point to Q4 2018 making a GAAP profit, though not as much as the third quarter.

With this in mind, here are a number of things to expect from tomorrow’s Q4 fourth-quarter and full-year 2018 financial results and earnings call.

Earnings

Analysts polled by FactSet have noted that they expect Tesla to report adjusted Q4 2018 earnings of $2.20 a share. This is a notable improvement over the fourth quarter of 2017, with its loss of $3.04 per share. GAAP earnings are expected to hit $1.23 a share, another notable turnaround from Q4 2017’s loss of $4.01. Estimize, a crowdsourced platform that aggregates estimates from analysts and other financial executives, notes that it expects Tesla to report an adjusted profit of $2.02 per share.

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Revenue

FactSet surveys among analysts state that Tesla is expected to report revenue of $7.12 billion for Q4 2018, a notable improvement over the $3.29 billion from 2017’s fourth quarter. Estimize’s results are a bit more conservative at $7.03 billion.

Sustainability

If there is one thing that investors would be looking for in Tesla’s upcoming fourth-quarter and full-year 2018 financial report and earnings call, it would be the company’s capability to sustain its profitability. Tesla, for its part, has seemingly adopted contingencies to ensure this, from trimming its workforce by 7% to retiring the 75 kWh battery pack options for the Model S and X and concluding its long-running customer referral program.

Ultimately, if Tesla could successfully prove that its feat in the third quarter is sustainable, the company could definitively prove to investors that it would be profitable moving forward.

Product Roadmap

Tesla has a lot on its plate this 2019. The highly-anticipated Model Y SUV is expected to be unveiled sometime this year, and Elon Musk has teased that the Tesla pickup truck might be revealed as well. Apart from this, the company is aggressively ramping Solar Roof tiles production in Gigafactory 2. Lastly, Tesla is also expected to initiate the start of the Semi’s production, as announced during the vehicle’s unveiling.

Considering Tesla’s busy year, there is a good chance that Elon Musk and the company’s other executives would provide some updates on upcoming projects, such as the release of Hardware 3 and upcoming Autopilot features. Other pertinent updates for the company’s existing product lineup, such as a possible 2170 battery cell upgrade for the Model S and X, as well as the production of the $35,000 Model 3, might also be discussed.

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As of writing, Tesla shares are trading at -0.82% at $293.95 per share.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla Q3 deliveries could exceed expectations: Wolfe Research

“Q3 is poised to be a strong quarter,” the firm noted.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) could deliver a stronger-than-expected third quarter, as per Wolfe Research, which stated that the EV maker’s vehicle deliveries could reach between 465,000 and 470,000 units this Q3 2025. 

Such results would represent a 22% increase from Q2, topping consensus estimates of 445,000. “Q3 is poised to be a strong quarter,” the firm noted.

U.S. and China demand

In the U.S., Wolfe attributed part of the volume lift to consumers accelerating purchases ahead of the expiration of a $7,500 federal EV tax credit. The firm is also optimistic about China’s deliveries, which the firm noted is trending above prior expectations. Wolfe estimated 165,000–170,000 deliveries in China for the third quarter, or about 10,000 more than its earlier forecast, as noted n a Yahoo Finance report.

The firm noted that these figures do not yet include meaningful contributions from the newly launched Model Y L. “We estimate 165-170k deliveries in Q3, or ~10k above our prior est,” Wolfe stated, though these volumes “largely do not reflect the recent launch of the Model Y L.”

Earnings outlook

Wolfe noted that it expects Tesla’s Q3 earnings per share to fall between $0.55 and $0.60, which is above the current consensus of $0.49 per share. The firm forecasts automotive gross margins, excluding regulatory credits, of about 16.5% to 17%. 

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Looking ahead, Wolfe warned that Q4 could prove more challenging due to U.S. demand being pulled forward by tax incentives. Still, Wolfe suggested that factors like stronger seasonal demand in China and Europe could become tailwinds that could help the company’s volumes in the fourth quarter. The ramp and rollout of the Model Y L and upcoming affordable models could also help bolster the company’s Q4 volumes.

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Investor's Corner

Wall Street firm makes shock move for Tesla Q3 delivery prediction

“[The company should have] strong deliveries in the US as Tesla pushes, and consumers take advantage of, the $7,500 IRA EV tax credit before its expiry at the end of September 2025.” 

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(Credit: Tesla)

A Wall Street firm is making a shocking move ahead of Tesla’s Q3 delivery report, increasing its forecast for the quarter.

Tesla is set to report its deliveries for the third quarter sometime next week at the beginning of October. There has been quite a bit of speculation about Tesla’s performance in terms of deliveries for the quarter, as many firms and investors are curious about how strong it could be.

There have been a few things working in Tesla’s favor, including the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which stimulated demand as consumers wanted to take advantage of the discount before it was no longer available.

Tesla also has launched an attractive revamp to the Model Y this year, which was the best-selling car in the world for the past two years. These two points have helped Tesla with demand specifically this year, but this quarter has been especially strong because of the tax credit phase-out.

With that being said, one Wall Street firm chose to push its delivery prediction for the third quarter up about ten percent.

Tesla makes a big change to reflect new IRS EV tax credit rules

UBS analysts said they adjusted their delivery targets for Tesla from 431,000 to 475,000, stating it was “more in line with buyside expectations in the 470-475k range.”

The firm continued:

“[The company should have] strong deliveries in the US as Tesla pushes, and consumers take advantage of, the $7,500 IRA EV tax credit before its expiry at the end of September 2025.” 

If it manages to reach what UBS thinks it will, deliveries would be the highest for Tesla since late 2024, and the firm believes it could “potentially [be] the highest ever” for the company in a single quarter.

Tesla delivered over 495,000 cars in Q4 2024, so it would truly need an anomaly to capture that crown in Q3.

For the full year, UBS believes Tesla will deliver 1.62 million cars in 2025.

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Mizuho raises Tesla (TSLA) price target on stronger 2026 outlook

Mizuho also retained Tesla’s “Outperform” rating despite short-term industry challenges.

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Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East/X

Mizuho Securities has lifted its price target for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares to $450 from $375, citing a more optimistic view of the electric vehicle market in 2026. 

The firm stated that potential tariff headwinds appear less severe than earlier expected, while EV production volumes are trending higher across major automakers. Mizuho also retained Tesla’s “Outperform” rating despite short-term industry challenges.

Mizuho’s take

Mizuho analysts now forecast Tesla will deliver about 1.91 million vehicles in 2026, slightly down from their previous estimate of 1.95 million but still above Wall Street consensus. The firm pointed to Tesla’s planned lower-cost “Model 2” and potential Robotaxi launches as key drivers for growth over the next two years.

“We see TSLA maintaining key leadership in the U.S. BEV market despite some near-term challenges,” Vijay Rakesh, managing director at Mizuho, wrote in a research note. 

The note also highlighted Elon Musk’s recently approved compensation package and his $1 billion stock purchase, which Mizuho believes could align incentives with Tesla’s long-term projects, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report. These include advancing autonomous driving technology and pushing development of humanoid robots, both of which remain central to Musk’s vision of the company’s future.

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Similar insights

Mizuho is not the only firm that has cited Tesla’s long-term projects and the company’s leadership position in the AI and auto sector. In a recent note, Piper Sandler highlighted that despite the growing number of legitimate competitors for Tesla in places like China, the company still has a foundational role in shaping the industry’s direction, particularly in areas such as battery integration, vehicle software, and AI-powered features.

Piper Sandler also noted that competitors still look to Tesla for advancements in real-world AI applications. “Building AI-enabled machines requires data, talent, chips, and engineering prowess. Tesla compares favorably vs. the Chinese on all of these fronts,,” the firm noted.

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