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Tesla’s Q4 and Full Year 2018 financial report and earnings call: What to expect

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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is set to release its Q4 and Full Year 2018 financial results after markets close tomorrow, January 30. Following the release of its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results, the electric car maker is scheduled to hold its earnings call, which will begin at 2:30 p.m. Pacific Time (5:30 p.m. Eastern Time).

A lot is riding on Tesla’s results for the fourth quarter of 2018. To say that the past year has been challenging for the company is an understatement, with CEO Elon Musk describing the Model 3 ramp as one of the most difficult periods of his career. That said, despite a short-lived attempt at privatization, run-ins with the SEC, and clashes with mainstream media, Tesla surprised Wall Street on the third quarter when it posted a GAAP profit of $312 million. Since then, the company’s critics have been forced to change their narrative from “Tesla will never turn a profit” to “Tesla’s Q3 2018 results are as good as it ever will get.”

Elon Musk has proven to be quite conservative about Tesla’s fourth quarter results. In an email to employees earlier this month, Musk explained that Tesla’s third-quarter earnings were notably driven by a push to sell higher-priced variants of the Model 3 to North American customers. Musk noted that unaudited estimates point to Q4 2018 making a GAAP profit, though not as much as the third quarter.

With this in mind, here are a number of things to expect from tomorrow’s Q4 fourth-quarter and full-year 2018 financial results and earnings call.

Earnings

Analysts polled by FactSet have noted that they expect Tesla to report adjusted Q4 2018 earnings of $2.20 a share. This is a notable improvement over the fourth quarter of 2017, with its loss of $3.04 per share. GAAP earnings are expected to hit $1.23 a share, another notable turnaround from Q4 2017’s loss of $4.01. Estimize, a crowdsourced platform that aggregates estimates from analysts and other financial executives, notes that it expects Tesla to report an adjusted profit of $2.02 per share.

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Revenue

FactSet surveys among analysts state that Tesla is expected to report revenue of $7.12 billion for Q4 2018, a notable improvement over the $3.29 billion from 2017’s fourth quarter. Estimize’s results are a bit more conservative at $7.03 billion.

Sustainability

If there is one thing that investors would be looking for in Tesla’s upcoming fourth-quarter and full-year 2018 financial report and earnings call, it would be the company’s capability to sustain its profitability. Tesla, for its part, has seemingly adopted contingencies to ensure this, from trimming its workforce by 7% to retiring the 75 kWh battery pack options for the Model S and X and concluding its long-running customer referral program.

Ultimately, if Tesla could successfully prove that its feat in the third quarter is sustainable, the company could definitively prove to investors that it would be profitable moving forward.

Product Roadmap

Tesla has a lot on its plate this 2019. The highly-anticipated Model Y SUV is expected to be unveiled sometime this year, and Elon Musk has teased that the Tesla pickup truck might be revealed as well. Apart from this, the company is aggressively ramping Solar Roof tiles production in Gigafactory 2. Lastly, Tesla is also expected to initiate the start of the Semi’s production, as announced during the vehicle’s unveiling.

Considering Tesla’s busy year, there is a good chance that Elon Musk and the company’s other executives would provide some updates on upcoming projects, such as the release of Hardware 3 and upcoming Autopilot features. Other pertinent updates for the company’s existing product lineup, such as a possible 2170 battery cell upgrade for the Model S and X, as well as the production of the $35,000 Model 3, might also be discussed.

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As of writing, Tesla shares are trading at -0.82% at $293.95 per share.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla Board member and Airbnb co-founder loads up on TSLA ahead of robotaxi launch

Tesla CEO Elon Musk gave a nod of appreciation for the Tesla Board member’s purchase.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla Board member and Airbnb Co-Founder Joe Gebbia has loaded up on TSLA stock (NASDAQ:TSLA). The Board member’s purchase comes just over a month before Tesla is expected to launch an initial robotaxi service in Austin, Texas.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk gave a nod of appreciation for the Tesla Board member in a post on social media.

The TSLA Purchase

As could be seen in a Form 4 submitted to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday, Gebbia purchased about $1.02 million worth of TSLA stock. This was comprised of 4,000 TSLA shares at an average price of $256.308 per share.

Interestingly enough, Gebbia’s purchase represents the first time an insider has purchased TSLA stock in about five years. CEO Elon Musk, in response to a post on social media platform X about the Tesla Board member’s TSLA purchase, gave a nod of appreciation for Gebbia. “Joe rocks,” Musk wrote in his post on X.

Gebbia has served on Tesla’s Board as an independent director since 2022, and he is also a known friend of Elon Musk. He even joined the Trump Administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to help the government optimize its processes.

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Just a Few Weeks Before Robotaxi

The timing of Gebbia’s TSLA stock purchase is quite interesting as the company is expected to launch a dedicated roboatxi service this June in Austin. A recent report from Insider, citing sources reportedly familiar with the matter, claimed that Tesla currently has 300 test operators driving robotaxis around Austin city streets. The publication’s sources also noted that Tesla has an internal deadline of June 1 for the robotaxi service’s rollout, but even a launch near the end of the month would be impressive.

During the Q1 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk explained that the robotaxi service that would be launched in June will feature autonomous rides in Model Y units. He also noted that the robotaxi service would see an expansion to other cities by the end of 2025. “The Teslas that will be fully autonomous in June in Austin are probably Model Ys. So, that is currently on track to be able to do paid rides fully autonomously in Austin in June and then to be in many other cities in the US by the end of this year,” Musk stated. 

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Tesla hints at ‘Model 2’ & next-gen EV designs

Tesla’s Q1 2025 update confirms new models this year, with production tied to existing factory lines. Could it be time for the Model 2 debut?

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(Credit: Tesla)

During its Q1 2025 earnings call, Tesla executives hinted at the much-rumored “Model 2” and other next-gen EV designs.

Tesla slightly addressed whether or not it will be pushing forward with the debut of new models later this year in its latest earnings call. The company’s product development executive, Lars Moravy, shared some details about Tesla’s design process and the upcoming affordable models.

“We’re still planning to release models this year. As with all launches, we’re working through, like, the last minute issues that pop up. We’re knocking them down one by one. At this point, I would say that the ramp might be a little slower than we had hoped initially…But there’s nothing that’s blocking us from starting production within the next, within the timeline laid out in the opening remarks.

“And I will say it’s important to emphasize that, as we’ve said all along, the full utilization of our factories is the primary goal for these new products. And so the flexibility of what we can do within the form factor and, you know, the design of it is really limited to what we can do on our existing lines rather than building new ones. But we’ve been targeting the low cost of ownership. Monthly payment is the biggest differentiator for our vehicles, and that’s why we’re focused on bringing these new models with the, you know, the lowest price, to the market, within the constraints I just highlighted.”

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In January, Tesla’s Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja teased several new product introductions for this year. There is at least one product that most Tesla supporters and investors are hoping to see: the company’s affordable vehicles, which have been dubbed by the EV community as the “Model 2” or “Model Q.”

Before Tesla’s Robotaxi event last year, many speculated that the company would also unveil its affordable next-gen vehicle. Gene Munster from Deepwater had expected Tesla to release a stripped-down version of the Model 3 as its affordable vehicle during the Robotaxi event. In the end, Tesla unveiled its Robotaxi vehicle and its Robovan design.

It’s been a while since the Robotaxi event, and Tesla has kept mum about its affordable vehicle. Considering its Q1 2025 performance, TSLA investors look forward to catalysts that could boost the stock.

The “Model 2” has been labeled a potential catalyst for Tesla. As such, TSLA investors and supporters have been itching for news about the new affordable vehicle. The main questions surrounding the “Model 2” revolve around its design and price. Based on Moravy’s statement, the “Model 2’s” design will heavily depend on Tesla’s current assembly lines and supply chain structures.

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Tesla regains Piper Sandler’s confidence with Robotaxi plans & Q1 Results

Piper Sandler says Tesla delivered the best-case scenario for bulls. $TSLA has catalysts ahead to silence the bears.

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tesla-model-y-delivery
(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla gained Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter’s confidence following its Q1 2025 earnings call. Piper Sandler reaffirmed its Overweight rating and $400 TSLA price target, signaling optimism for the company’s robotaxi and affordable vehicle launches expected this year. The firm’s stance reflects Tesla’s resilience amid market challenges.

Despite expectations of weak Q1 financials, Tesla’s stock edged up in after-hours trading, defying skepticism. Piper Sandler’s Alexander Potter noted that the results met the hopes of Tesla supporters, particularly as the company held firm on its timelines. Potter emphasized that anticipation for robotaxi details and new vehicle launches should keep critics at bay, supporting the $400 target.

“In our preview last week, we predicted that (at best) Q1 would be a non-event. With the stock trading up slightly in the after-hours session, it appears our best-case scenario has materialized. Considering generally weak Q1 financials, we think this is the best result that TSLA bulls could’ve reasonably hoped for.

“In our view, the most important Q1 takeaway is this: Tesla didn’t hedge expectations re: launching Robotaxis or lower-priced vehicles in 1H25. With <2 months until the end of June, investors can look forward to some interesting catalysts in the weeks ahead. In our view, this alone should be enough to keep the bears at bay, at least until we have a better idea re: the details of Tesla’s new products, as well as the scale/scope of the Robotaxi launch,” wrote Potter.

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Wedbush Securities’ Dan Ives, a longtime TSLA bull, echoed Potter’s optimism for Tesla. Ives raised his price target for Tesla stock from $315 to $350 with a BUY rating. His Tesla upgrade came after Elon Musk’s announcement during the Q1 earnings call that he would reduce his involvement with DOGE, signaling a sharper focus on Tesla.

Tesla’s steady Q1 performance and unwavering commitment to its 2025 roadmap, including the Robotaxi launch and lower-priced models, bolster investor confidence. Piper Sandler’s analysis underscores Tesla’s ability to navigate a competitive electric vehicle market while advancing its technological edge. The upcoming Robotaxi launch and affordable vehicle introductions are pivotal, with analysts expecting these initiatives to drive stock value through 2025.

As Tesla prepares for these milestones, its stock movement reflects market trust in Musk’s vision. With Piper Sandler and Wedbush reaffirming bullish outlooks, Tesla’s strategic moves will remain under close scrutiny, positioning the company to capitalize on its innovation pipeline in a dynamic industry landscape.

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