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Tesla stock: analysts cut targets, mull demand and growth after Q4 miss

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) analysts are responding to the company’s fourth-quarter delivery miss by cutting price targets and mulling over demand and growth.

Tesla reported its delivery and production figures for 2022 and the fourth quarter yesterday, reporting 405,278 deliveries and 439,701 produced during the year’s final three months. Tesla delivered 1,313,851 cars in 2022, producing 1,369,611.

Tesla (TSLA) Q4 and FY 2022 deliveries reach new highs, but below analyst expectations

Analysts expected closer to 415,000 deliveries in Q4. Although Tesla recorded its biggest year to date and its most successful quarter in company history, they are concerned the company could be facing demand issues despite still holding a majority of the U.S. electric vehicle market and performing well in competitive markets like China and Europe.

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JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman lowered his price target on Tesla from $150 to $125 while noting to clients that subsequent delivery misses could be potentially detrimental to the long-term outlook on the stock.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives said Tesla and Musk should outline attainable and realistic delivery targets in 2023. Ives believes 40 percent delivery growth in 2023 would be “respectable,” but the miss in Q4 does not present any super positive connotations as Tesla heads into the new year. “A miss is a miss,” he said.

Goldman Sachs also reduced its Tesla price target from $235 to $205. However, one of its main concerns was whether Tesla could combat potential demand slumps, which it said in its note to investors that it believes the automaker can recover, with indicators pointing to Q2 2023, the firm said.

Morgan Stanley reiterated its $250 price target. “Tesla’s 4Q deliveries, while slightly higher than we had expected, are broadly consistent with our views that EV supply may be recovering faster than EV demand, reflecting a material narrative change in the scarcity of EVs on a global basis,” Adam Jonas said.

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Morgan Stanley expected Tesla to deliver 399,000 units in Q4.

2023: Make or Break year for Tesla?

2023 has plenty of catalysts for Tesla, at least according to the company’s own agenda. This year, Tesla plans to launch production of the Cybertruck, announce a new Gigafactory location in North America, and update the Model 3 sedan.

Cybertruck production will be limited at first but is scheduled to hit “mass production” by the end of the year. While significant impacts on Tesla’s delivery numbers will likely not be made by the Cybertruck this year, the rollout of the vehicle will be monumental as it recently reached a two-year delay. Slated to begin deliveries in late 2020, Tesla delayed production as it navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. Production was delayed further while Tesla focused on scaling production of the Model Y at Gigafactory Texas and withstood uncertain economic tides in 2022.

New Gigafactory locations, especially in North America, could prove to be a significant catalyst for the stock as it would indicate demand strengthening for Tesla. Reports have suggested Mexico will end up being the location for Tesla’s next production facility, but the company has not confirmed this.

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Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Elon Musk

SpaceX just filed for the IPO everyone was waiting for

SpaceX filed its public S-1, revealing $18.7 billion in revenue and billions in losses.

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SpaceX-Ax-4-mission-iss-launch-date

SpaceX publicly filed its S-1 registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission on May 20, 2026, making its financial details available to the public for the first time ahead of what could be the largest IPO in history.

An S-1 is the formal document a company must submit to the SEC before going public. It includes audited financials, risk factors, business descriptions, and how the company plans to use the money it raises. Companies are required to file one before selling shares to the public, and it must be published at least 15 days before the investor roadshow begins. SpaceX had already submitted a confidential draft to the SEC in April, which allowed regulators to review the filing privately before it went public.

The S-1 reveals that SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in consolidated revenue in 2025, driven largely by its Starlink satellite internet division, which posted $11.4 billion in revenue, growing nearly 50% year over year. Despite that growth, the company lost about $4.9 billion in 2025 and has burned through more than $37 billion since its founding.

SpaceX just forced Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile to team up for the first time in history

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A significant portion of those losses trace back to xAI, Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company, which was recently merged into SpaceX. SpaceX directed roughly 60% of its capital spending in 2025 to its AI division, totaling around $20 billion, yet that division lost billions and grew revenue by only about 22%.

SpaceX plans to list its Class A common stock on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America leading the offering. The dual-class share structure means going public will not meaningfully reduce Musk’s control, as Class B shares he holds carry 10 votes per share compared to one vote for public Class A shares.

The company is targeting a raise of around $75 billion at a valuation of roughly $1.75 trillion, which would make it the largest IPO ever. The investor roadshow is reportedly planned for June 5.

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Elon Musk

Tesla ditches India after years of broken promises

Tesla has ditched its plans to build a factory in India after years of failed negotiations.

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Tesla’s long-running effort to establish a manufacturing presence in India is officially over. India’s Minister of Heavy Industries H.D. Kumaraswamy confirmed on May 19, 2026 that Tesla has informed authorities it will not proceed with a manufacturing facility in the country.

Tesla first signaled serious interest in India around 2021, when it began hiring local staff and lobbying the Indian government for lower import tariffs. The ask was straightforward: reduce duties enough for Tesla to test the market with imported vehicles before committing capital to a local factory. India’s position was equally firm, with an ask of Tesla to commit to manufacturing first, then receive tariff relief. Neither side moved, and the talks quietly collapsed.

Tesla to open first India experience center in Mumbai on July 15

India had offered a policy that would reduce import duties from 110% down to 15% on EVs priced above $35,000, provided companies committed at least $500 million toward local manufacturing investment within three years. Tesla declined to participate. The tariff standoff was only part of the problem. Analysts pointed to significant gaps in India’s local supply chain, inadequate industrial infrastructure, and a mismatch between Tesla’s premium pricing and the purchasing power of India’s automotive market as additional factors that made the investment difficult to justify.

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First signs of an unraveling relationship came in April 2024, when Musk abruptly cancelled a planned trip to India where he was set to meet Prime Minister Modi and announce Tesla’s market entry. By July 2024, Fortune reported that Tesla executives had stopped contacting Indian government officials entirely. The government at that point understood Tesla had capital constraints and no plans to invest.

The more fundamental issue is that Tesla’s existing factories are currently operating at approximately 60% capacity, making a commitment to building new manufacturing capacity in a new market difficult to defend to investors. Tesla will continue selling imported Model Y vehicles through its existing showrooms in Mumbai, Delhi, Gurugram, and Bengaluru, but local production is no longer part of the plan.

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Elon Musk

SpaceX just forced Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile to team up for the first time in history

AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon just joined forces for one reason: Starlink is winning.

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Starlink D2D direct to device vs Verizon, AT&T (Concept render by Grok)

America’s three largest wireless carriers, AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon, announced on On May 14, 2026 that they had agreed in principle to form a joint venture aimed at pooling their spectrum resources to expand satellite-based direct-to-device (D2D) connectivity across the United States in what can be seen as a direct response to SpaceX’s Starlink initiative. D2D, in plain terms, is technology that lets a standard smartphone connect directly to a satellite in orbit, the same way it connects to a cell tower, with no extra hardware required.

The alliance is widely seen as a means to slow Starlink’s rapid expansion in the satellite internet and mobile markets. SpaceX’s Starlink Mobile service launched commercially in July 2025 through a partnership with T-Mobile, starting with messaging before expanding to broadband data. SpaceX secured access to valuable wireless spectrum through its $17 billion deal with EchoStar, paving the way for significantly faster satellite-to-phone speeds.

The FCC just said ‘No’ to SpaceX for now

SpaceX was not shy about its reaction. SpaceX president and COO Gwynne Shotwell responded on X: “Weeeelllll, I guess Starlink Mobile is doing something right! It’s David and Goliath (X3) all over again — I’m bettin’ on David.” SpaceX’s VP of Satellite Policy David Goldman went further, flagging potential antitrust concerns and asking whether the DOJ would even allow three dominant competitors to coordinate in a market where a new rival is actively entering.

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Financial analysts at LightShed Partners were blunt, saying the announcement showed the three carriers are “nervous,” and pointed to the timing: “You announce an agreement in principle when the point is the announcement, not the deal. The timing, weeks ahead of the SpaceX roadshow, was the point.”

As Teslarati reported, SpaceX’s next generation Starlink V2 satellites will deliver up to 100 times the data density of the current system, with custom silicon and phased array antennas enabling around 20 times the throughput of the first generation. The carriers’ JV, which has no definitive agreement, no financial structure, and no deployment timeline yet, will need to move quickly to matter.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX is targeting a Nasdaq listing as early as June 12, aiming for what would be the largest IPO in history. With Starlink now serving over 9 million subscribers across 155 countries, holding 59 carrier partnerships globally, and now powering Air Force One, the carriers’ joint venture announcement landed at exactly the wrong time to look like anything other than a defensive move.

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