Investor's Corner
Tesla shorts feel the burn with $1B loss to start 2021
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) short sellers felt the burn on the first days of 2021, recording a $1 billion loss due to the electric automaker’s boost in price on January 4.
Tesla closed at a record high of $729.77 yesterday, marking the first official trading day on Wall Street of 2021 as a win for the Silicon Valley-based car company. The 3.4% boost in stock price was met with another record: a 52-week high of $744.49, which occurred during the early hours of Monday’s trading session.
But while TSLA’s long-term holders have felt the growth in their portfolios for a year, short-sellers are feeling the heat already, much like they did in 2020, when they reported a $38 billion loss for the year. Reports from Financial Review now indicate that shorts have already lost $1 billion in 2021, despite only one trading session taking place so far.
Why? It’s pretty simple. Tesla reported its Q4 2020 and 2020 Full-Year delivery and production figures, which showed that it reached its 500,000 unit goal in production and fell just short of deliveries at 499,650. However, the official number could be over 500,000 and will be reported during Tesla’s Q4 2020 Earnings Call, which will take place later this month.
The 500,000 unit threshold in either deliveries or production was a long shot for Tesla. Even though demand was healthy for all of 2020, there were several shutdowns of its production facilities, including the Fremont Factory in Northern California, which is the only plant that builds all four of Tesla’s electric models.
However, Elon Musk’s dedicated crew of executives, engineers, production associates, and sales advisors bound together to create a legendary Q4 push, which resulted in the company’s biggest quarter yet, where over 180,000 vehicles were delivered, and over 179,000 were produced.
“Musk & Co basically hitting its 500,000 goal for the year is a major feather in the cap for the company and the bulls as Tesla saw robust Model 3 demand over the last 10 months despite the hurricane-like consumer headwinds seen globally in this COVID backdrop,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a note to investors.
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Tesla (TSLA) 2021 Outlook: Deutsche Bank boosts guidance after record-setting year
Despite Tesla’s five-consecutive profitable quarters, robust demand, and proven growth, it continues to be the most shorted stock on Wall Street. Data from S3 shows that Tesla’s short interest is $31.20 billion, or 44.22 million shares are short. This equates to 5.83 percent of TSLA’s float. Meanwhile, Apple holds only $13.3 billion in short interest, which is only .6 percent of its float.
Tesla enthusiasts are no stranger to being on the right side of the TSLA vs. TSLAQ dilemma. David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital Re admitted that his fund felt the heat from shorting Tesla in 2020, stating that the electric automaker “detracted from performance” of Greenlight’s 2020 portfolio. Net premiums decreased by 10.7%, all due to Greenlight’s short position of TSLA.
At the time of writing, TSLA shares were up around .2%, trading at $731.19.
Disclaimer: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
What do you think? Leave a comment down below. Got a tip? Email us at tips@teslarati.com or reach out to me at joey@teslarati.com.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Tesla takes a step towards removal of Robotaxi service’s safety drivers
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
