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Tesla (TSLA) 2021 Outlook: Deutsche Bank boosts guidance after record-setting year

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has received some of its first outlooks from financial firms for 2021. Deutsche Bank is one of these firms, and the Wall Street-based company boosted its 2021 delivery guidance and revised its price target for the electric automaker.

Deutsche Bank went into the New Year paying close attention to Tesla’s 2020 delivery figures, as the company was chasing a lofty, but attainable, 500,000 vehicle production and delivery goal. Tesla released its Full-Year 2020 and Q4 2020 production and delivery figures on Saturday, revealing that it had attained its goals. For many years, Tesla has looked at 2020 as the year it would deliver half-a-million cars to its consumers, and many analysts looked at the company in doubt and disbelief, only to be proven wrong when the time came.

After Tesla’s remarkable 2020 showing, Deutsche Bank believes 2021 could be “pivotal” for the company’s future “with material revenue acceleration, benefitting from ramping up capacity and product lines across the globe.”

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Deutsche Bank said that it had raised its 2021 delivery forecast by 25,000 cars, from 775,000 to 800,000, “taking revenue to $46bn, in-line with consensus,” analysts at the firm wrote in a note to investors. “Mid-term, we believe Tesla’s impressive target trajectory for its technology, capacity, and especially cost could help accelerate the world’s shift to electric vehicles and extend Tesla’s EV lead considerably,” the note also stated.

Tesla was, without a doubt, the big winner in the automotive industry in 2020. Only ten major automakers were able to report positive numbers in Q3 2020 compared to Q3 2019, and Tesla was the only one that was able to report substantial growth when comparing the two figures. After a 154.7% growth from Q3 2019 to Q3 2020, according to GoodCarBadCar, it was evident that EVs are here, and the ones that dawn the notorious Tesla “T” on the hood are the most popular.

It seemed like 2020 was a lost cause at the beginning of Q2 because Tesla was already forced to shut down Giga Shanghai in China and the Fremont Factory in Northern California due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Fremont, Tesla’s main facility, was closed for around a month and a half, which cause the automaker to report sub-100,000 numbers for the second quarter of the year. Many people considered it a lethal blow to Tesla’s 500k goal, but the automaker pulled out one of the most remarkable production and delivery pushes that it will likely ever see in its history.

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Tesla (TSLA) closes out 2020 with a new bull: Masterlink Securities

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Deutsche Bank is still banking on 2025 being Tesla’s breakout year, with a revenue of $94 billion and more than 2 million cars delivered during that year. However, near term forecasts still see significant growth in production and demand taking place, especially considering Tesla has two large-scale production facilities in the works in Texas and Germany.

Tesla also received a price target boost from $500 to $705, which is “based on the average of 50x our 2025 EPS (discounted back) and EV/sales multiple of 17.5x 2022 (vs. prior 12x) as we believe investor enthusiasm for high-quality pure EV plays and expected confirmation of ongoing technology lead by Tesla should continue to support higher valuation.”

Disclaimer: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.

What do you think? Leave a comment down below. Got a tip? Email us at tips@teslarati.com or reach out to me at joey@teslarati.com

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

Elon Musk

Tesla investors will be shocked by Jim Cramer’s latest assessment

Jim Cramer is now speaking positively about Tesla, especially in terms of its Robotaxi performance and its perception as a company.

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Credit: CNBC Television/YouTube

Tesla investors will be shocked by analyst Jim Cramer’s latest assessment of the company.

When it comes to Tesla analysts, many of them are consistent. The bulls usually stay the bulls, and the bears usually stay the bears. The notable analysts on each side are Dan Ives and Adam Jonas for the bulls, and Gordon Johnson for the bears.

Jim Cramer is one analyst who does not necessarily fit this mold. Cramer, who hosts CNBC’s Mad Money, has switched his opinion on Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) many times.

He has been bullish, like he was when he said the stock was a “sleeping giant” two years ago, and he has been bearish, like he was when he said there was “nothing magnificent” about the company just a few months ago.

Now, he is back to being a bull.

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Cramer’s comments were related to two key points: how NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang describes Tesla after working closely with the Company through their transactions, and how it is not a car company, as well as the recent launch of the Robotaxi fleet.

Jensen Huang’s Tesla Narrative

Cramer says that the narrative on quarterly and annual deliveries is overblown, and those who continue to worry about Tesla’s performance on that metric are misled.

“It’s not a car company,” he said.

He went on to say that people like Huang speak highly of Tesla, and that should be enough to deter any true skepticism:

“I believe what Musk says cause Musk is working with Jensen and Jensen’s telling me what’s happening on the other side is pretty amazing.”

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Tesla self-driving development gets huge compliment from NVIDIA CEO

Robotaxi Launch

Many media outlets are being extremely negative regarding the early rollout of Tesla’s Robotaxi platform in Austin, Texas.

There have been a handful of small issues, but nothing significant. Cramer says that humans make mistakes in vehicles too, yet, when Tesla’s test phase of the Robotaxi does it, it’s front page news and needs to be magnified.

He said:

“Look, I mean, drivers make mistakes all the time. Why should we hold Tesla to a standard where there can be no mistakes?”

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It’s refreshing to hear Cramer speak logically about the Robotaxi fleet, as Tesla has taken every measure to ensure there are no mishaps. There are safety monitors in the passenger seat, and the area of travel is limited, confined to a small number of people.

Tesla is still improving and hopes to remove teleoperators and safety monitors slowly, as CEO Elon Musk said more freedom could be granted within one or two months.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets $475 price target from Benchmark amid initial Robotaxi rollout

Tesla’s limited rollout of its Robotaxi service in Austin is already catching the eye of Wall Street.

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Credit: Tesla

Venture capital firm Benchmark recently reiterated its “Buy” rating and raised its price target on Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) from $350 to $475 per share, citing the company’s initial Robotaxi service deployment as a sign of future growth potential.

Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg praised the Robotaxi service pilot’s “controlled and safety-first approach,” adding that it could help Tesla earn the trust of regulators and the general public.

Confidence in camera-based autonomy

Legg reiterated Benchmark’s belief in Tesla’s vision-only approach to autonomous driving. “We are a believer in Tesla’s camera-focused approach that is not only cost effective but also scalable,” he noted. 

The analyst contrasted Tesla’s simple setup with the more expensive hardware stacks used by competitors like Waymo, which use various sophisticated sensors that hike up costs, as noted in an Investing.com report. Compared to Tesla’s Model Y Robotaxis, Waymo’s self-driving cars are significantly more expensive.

He also pointed to upcoming Texas regulations set to take effect in September, suggesting they could help create a regulatory framework favorable to autonomous services in other cities.

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“New regulations for autonomous vehicles are set to go into place on Sept. 1 in TX that we believe will further help win trust and pave the way for expansion to additional cities,” the analyst wrote.

https://twitter.com/herbertong/status/1938287117441855616?s=10

Tesla as a robotics powerhouse

Beyond robotaxis, Legg sees Tesla evolving beyond its roots as an electric vehicle maker. He noted that Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, could be a long-term growth driver alongside new vehicle programs and other future initiatives.

“In our view, the company is undergoing an evolution from a trailblazing vehicle OEM to a high-tech automation and robotics company with unmatched domestic manufacturing scale,” he wrote.

Benchmark noted that Tesla stock had rebounded over 50% from its April lows, driven in part by easing tariff concerns and growing momentum around autonomy. With its initial Robotaxi rollout now underway, the firm has returned to its previous $475 per share target and reaffirmed TSLA as a Benchmark Top Pick for 2025.

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Tesla blacklisted by Swedish pension fund AP7 as it sells entire stake

A Swedish pension fund is offloading its Tesla holdings for good.

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tesla
(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla shares have been blacklisted by the Swedish pension fund AP7, who said earlier today that it has “verified violations of labor rights in the United States” by the automaker.

The fund ended up selling its entire stake, which was worth around $1.36 billion when it liquidated its holdings in late May. Reuters first reported on AP7’s move.

Other pension and retirement funds have relinquished some of their Tesla holdings due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement in politics, among other reasons, and although the company’s stock has been a great contributor to growth for many funds over the past decade, these managers are not willing to see past the CEO’s right to free speech.

However, AP7 says the move is related not to Musk’s involvement in government nor his political stances. Instead, the fund said it verified several labor rights violations in the U.S.:

“AP7 has decided to blacklist Tesla due to verified violations of labor rights in the United States. Despite several years of dialogue with Tesla, including shareholder proposals in collaboration with other investors, the company has not taken sufficient measures to address the issues.”

Tesla made up about 1 percent of the AP7 Equity Fund, according to a spokesperson. This equated to roughly 13 billion crowns, but the fund’s total assets were about 1,181 billion crowns at the end of May when the Tesla stake was sold off.

Tesla has had its share of labor lawsuits over the past few years, just as any large company deals with at some point or another. There have been claims of restrictions against labor union supporters, including one that Tesla was favored by judges, as they did not want pro-union clothing in the factory. Tesla argued that loose-fitting clothing presented a safety hazard, and the courts agreed.

tesla employee

(Photo: Tesla)

There have also been claims of racism at the Fremont Factory by a former elevator contractor named Owen Diaz. He was awarded a substantial sum of $137m. However, U.S. District Judge William Orrick ruled the $137 million award was excessive, reducing it to $15 million. Diaz rejected this sum.

Another jury awarded Diaz $3.2 million. Diaz’s legal team said this payout was inadequate. He and Tesla ultimately settled for an undisclosed amount.

AP7 did not list any of the current labor violations that it cited as its reason for

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