News
Tesla may underpromise and overdeliver with the Model 3 Highland in the US
Tesla has not really “underpromised and overdelivered” since it started deliveries of the Model Y crossover earlier than expected in March 2020. At the time, Tesla had maintained that Model Y deliveries were due in Fall 2020. This same thing may be happening with the upgraded Model 3, better known in EV circles as the Model 3 Highland, in the United States.
The upgraded Tesla Model 3’s Rear Wheel Drive (RWD) and All Wheel Drive (AWD) versions were unveiled in late August 2022, but it soon became evident that the vehicle would only be available in territories that are supplied by Gigafactory Shanghai. The United States, which gets its Model 3 sedans from the Fremont Factory, still received the previous generation Model 3.
Reports also emerged then that the United States would not be getting the Model 3 Highland for a notable amount of time. Optimistic predictions from Tesla watchers suggested a release date for the upgraded vehicle sometime in 2024, while those who were more conservative suggested that the Model 3 Highland could arrive in the US even later. As of late, however, it is starting to seem that Tesla may be ready to release the upgraded Model 3 sooner than expected.
Sunnyvale, CA ? pic.twitter.com/FbRhvuutlV— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) January 7, 2024
Over the past weeks, sightings of fully uncovered Model 3 Highland vehicles have been reported on social media. The vehicles are quite unique, as they feature a Tesla badge written in Chinese characters, making them seem like they were produced at Giga Shanghai. Observations of the Model 3 Highland units’ VINs suggested that the cars were produced in the Fremont Factory, however. Interestingly enough, some of the upgraded Model 3 units were marked as engineering vehicles.
?NEW YEAR NEW FREMONT MODEL 3 ?
This refresh Tesla Model 3 was spotted with Shanghai badges but the VIN shows it was built in Fremont (F factory designation).
Maybe we will see deliveries in Q1 as called by @Scobleizer. https://t.co/D5j4zwXe31 pic.twitter.com/mFUNeD35pj— Matthew Donegan-Ryan (@MatthewDR) January 1, 2024
What is immediately noticeable from the vehicles that have recently been spotted in the United States is the fact that they are already very finely made. This suggests that if the vehicles are indeed manufactured in the Fremont Factory, the facility is already producing upgraded Model 3 units that are ready for customer deliveries. If this were indeed the case, it would not be surprising if customer deliveries of the Model 3 Highland in the United States start earlier than expected, perhaps as early as Q1 2024.
Tesla Model 3 Highland full walk around. I saw this today at the Firebaugh supercharger. #tesla #tsla #model3 #fyp #viral #cybertruck #teslacybertruck pic.twitter.com/Vi7h3u0FIf— Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (@teslaownersSV) December 29, 2023
A hint at such a timeline may have been dropped by Tesla in late November. At the time, Tesla Australia chief engineer and Model 3 program veteran Daniel Ho reportedly remarked that a revamped Model 3 Performance would make its way to Australia in the first half of 2024. The comments suggested that serious developments could be expected in the Model 3 program in early 2024. One of these may very well be the start of the revamped vehicle’s production at the Fremont Factory.
Tesla has been accused of overpromising and underdelivering as of late. Elon Musk’s FSD promises have proven inaccurate time and time again; the Model S Plaid+ was canceled before it was released; the next-generation Roadster is still nowhere to be found; the Semi is still not ramped; progress on Giga Nevada’s expansion and Giga Mexico has been practically nonexistent; and the Cyberbeast’s range is significantly lower than expected despite its notable price hike. If Tesla manages to release the Model 3 Highland earlier than expected in the United States, it could prove that the company can still exceed expectations, especially when it quietly executes on its goals.
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Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
News
Tesla’s Elon Musk posts updated Robotaxi fleet ramp for Austin, TX
Musk posted his update on social media platform X.
Elon Musk says Tesla will “roughly double” its supervised Robotaxi fleet in Austin next month as riders report long wait times and limited availability across the pilot program in the Texas city. Musk posted his update on social media platform X.
The move comes as Waymo accelerates its U.S. expansion with its fully driverless freeway service, intensifying competition in autonomous mobility.
Tesla to increase Austin Robotaxi fleet size
Tesla’s Robotaxi service in Austin continues to operate under supervised conditions, requiring a safety monitor in the front seat even as the company seeks regulatory approval to begin testing without human oversight. The current fleet is estimated at about 30 vehicles, StockTwists noted, and Musk’s commitment to doubling that figure follows widespread rider complaints about limited access and “High Service Demand” notifications.
Influencers and early users of the Robotaxi service have observed repeated failures to secure a ride during peak times, highlighting a supply bottleneck in one of Tesla’s most visible autonomy pilots. The expansion aims to provide more consistent availability as the company scales and gathers more real-world driving data, an advantage analysts often cite as a differentiator versus rivals.
Broader rollout plans
Tesla’s Robotaxi service has so far only been rolled out to Austin and the Bay Area, though reports have indicated that the electric vehicle maker is putting in a lot of effort to expand the service to other cities across the United States. Waymo, the Robotaxi service’s biggest competitor, has ramped its service to areas like the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, and Phoenix.
Analysts continue to highlight Tesla’s long-term autonomy potential due to its global fleet size, vertically integrated design, and immense real-world data. ARK Invest has maintained that Tesla Robotaxis could represent up to 90% of the company’s enterprise value by 2029. BTIG analysts, on the other hand, added that upcoming Full Self-Driving upgrades will enhance reasoning, particularly parking decisions, while Tesla pushes toward expansions in Austin, the Bay Area, and potentially 8 to 10 metro regions by the end of 2025.
Tesla has finished construction at its biggest Supercharger ever in Lost Hills, California, and all 168 stalls are officially open as of today.
After several years of development, the company has officially announced that the Lost Hills Supercharger, known as Project Oasis, is officially open with 168 stalls active and available to drivers.
Tesla announced the completion of the Lost Hills Supercharger on Tuesday, showing off the site, which is powered by 10 Megapack batteries for storage and is completely independent of the grid, as it has 11 MW of solar panels bringing energy to the massive Battery Energy Storage System (BESS).
All 168 Stalls at the Tesla Supercharger in Lost Hills, California are officially open! pic.twitter.com/eo9xmZyUNB
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) November 25, 2025
This is the largest Supercharger in the world and opens just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday, which is the most-traveled weekend of the year in the United States.
Spanning across 30 acres, it was partially opened back in July 2025 as Tesla opened just 84 of the 168 stalls at the site. However, Tesla finished certifying the site recently, which enabled the Supercharger to open up completely.
The site generates roughly 20 GWh of energy annually, which is enough to power roughly 1,700 homes. The launch of this site specifically is massive for the company as it plans to launch more Superchargers in more rural areas, making charging more available for cross-country rides that require stops in more remote regions of the United States.
This is perhaps the only weak point of Tesla’s massive charging infrastructure.
It has some features that are also extremely welcome for some owners, including things like pull-through stalls for those who tow, an idea that was extremely popular following the launch of the Cybertruck.
Tesla has over 70,000 active Superchargers across the world. The company has also made efforts to create unique experiences at some of the stops, most notably with its Tesla Diner, located on Santa Monica Boulevard in Los Angeles.
That Supercharger has two massive drive-in movie theaters and will soon transition to a full-service restaurant following the departure of its executive chef, Eric Greenspan.
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
Tesla’s Elon Musk posts updated Robotaxi fleet ramp for Austin, TX
