Connect with us

Investor's Corner

Tesla’s Q2 outlook prompts price target cut at Credit Suisse

(Credit: @mat2ate7/Twitter)

Published

on

Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) price target at Credit Suisse has been reduced to $1,000 from $1,125 as the firm, led by research analysts Dan Levy and Trevor Young, cited concerns from the company’s COVID-forced shutdown as a major concern to Q2 delivery numbers.

“We expect Tesla 2Q’22 deliveries of 242k vs. sell-side consensus of ~280k, largely driven by the Shanghai COVID shutdown,” the analysts wrote.

Tesla shares were up 3.11 percent, trading at $727.12, at 11:27 am ET.

In April, Tesla shut down production lines at Gigafactory Shanghai for three weeks as COVID cases began to rise in the Chinese city. The stoppage forced Tesla to eat 97 percent of its monthly production figures, as the automaker reported less than spirited numbers in April compared to March. The factory has since resumed production and returned to normal output levels rather quickly.

Levy and Young also cited they would reduce their 2Q EPS estimates from $2.06 to $1.10. This is based on a reduction in forecasted deliveries, as the firm reduced its outlook from 295,000 cars in Q2 to just 242,000. “In aggregate, we believe the Shanghai shutdown accounted for ~90k units of lost production in Q2,” the letter to investors said. “Note that whereas Elon Musk noted on the 1Q call that 2Q deliveries would be similar to / or slightly lower than 1Q (310k), we believe the longer-than-expected Shanghai shutdown, as well as the slow ramp of Austin and Berlin, imply downside.”

Tesla Gigafactory Shanghai to exit “closed-loop” system on June 11

Advertisement
-

“Moreover, given the lower deliveries outlook, the associated margin impact, and an expected Bitcoin impairment, we reduce our 2Q EPS estimate to $1.10 from $2.06, and below consensus $2.08.

Tesla has routinely outpaced analyst expectations in recent quarters, beating consensus estimates with deliveries and financial metrics. In Q1, Tesla posted total revenues of $18.756 billion with a gross profit of $5.460 billion. This beat consensus estimates of $17.8 billion. Additionally, Tesla reported a massive beat in EPS, reporting $3.22 per share with estimates coming in at just $2.27 per share.

Credit Suisse still believes Tesla is the undisputed leader of the sector, holding a considerable lead over its competitors. “We believe the long-term case for Tesla is clear — Tesla remains the global leader in EV, and amid rising supply chain risks, we believe Tesla’s lead over other automakers in the race to EV is only amplified given its lead in vertical integration and its prior EV experience,” the note states.

Levy is ranked #2,540 out of 7,901 analysts on TipRanks. He has a 35 percent success rate and an average return of 4.7 percent.

Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

Advertisement
-

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

Advertisement
Comments

Elon Musk

Elon Musk will give ‘every kid in America’ a SpaceX share in 2027

Published

on

Credit: Grok Imagine

Elon Musk said he is planning to give “every one of his SpaceX shares to every kid in America” in 2027, stating that “this will be the first of many.”

SpaceX went public earlier this year, and its stock price has been relatively stable since leveling off shortly after its IPO. Based on its current price, it’s a gift of just over $10 billion to children across the United States.

It appears to be closely related to President Donald Trump’s bank accounts for children, which were set up earlier this year as Trump Accounts.

Just hours earlier, Anthropic had announced the establishment of its Anthropic Public Benefit Fund, “a new wholly-owned entity dedicated entirely to public benefit.” Musk responded by stating he recommended “giving the shares directly to the public,” and that he would be doing it that way.

Just a little bit later, Musk said children across the U.S. would be getting a share from him:

Advertisement
-

There are roughly 70 million children, meaning someone under the age of 18, in the United States, according to the Federal Interagency Forum on Child and Family Statistics. Musk’s ownership of SpaceX stock shows he has around 849 million Class A shares of SpaceX stock, according to filings with the SEC.

Continue Reading

Investor's Corner

SpaceX’s biggest earnings test yet lands Tuesday, and Tesla shareholders should be watching

SpaceX reports earnings Tuesday as Wall Street watches AI spending, Starlink growth and Tesla merger

Published

on

By

SpaceX reports third quarter results after the market closes Tuesday, with a webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET streamed on X, and Tesla follows a day later. Bloomberg consensus, cited by Pepperstone, calls for revenue of $12.89 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $6.62 billion and adjusted EPS near $0.15. That would be about 65% growth from the second quarter and SpaceX’s first profitable quarter since its IPO. Analysts expect roughly $6.4 billion from AI and $4.9 billion from Starlink, which is projected to reach 14.3 million consumer subscribers. Capital spending is forecast at $19.6 billion, leaving free cash flow near negative $11.6 billion.

The numbers matter because SpaceX has spent months trying to win over a skeptical market. It priced its record IPO at $135, spiked to $225.64, then sank near $105 in early August. Friday’s close of $146.03 sits about 28% below the June high. The Q2 report beat on revenue at $7.8 billion and put Starlink at 12 million subscribers, but $18.4 billion of capex hurt the stock. Since then SpaceX reached orbit on Starship Flight 14 with 26 Starlink V3 satellites, agreed to buy 800 MHz spectrum for about $8 billion as part of its Starlink Mobile push, and signed a fourth compute hosting deal in four months worth roughly $13 billion a year from December. Management is targeting more than 2 gigawatts of compute by year end and a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate. Evercore ISI, which raised its target to $275, said the quarter may be judged more on those targets than the reported figures

All of this sits under the Tesla merger question. Barclays analyst Dan Levy expects an all stock deal in which SpaceX buys Tesla at a premium, using reference values of $2.1 trillion and $1.5 trillion, and said an announcement would need to come by late October or early November to be voted on at Tesla’s December 6 annual meeting. Barclays estimates Musk would hold about 37% of the combined company and 56% of the votes. Musk said in July that combining companies cannot be discussed on an earnings call, but an investor question asking when SpaceX will merge with Tesla is sitting on SpaceX’s Q&A platform, and Teslarati has tracked how the Roadster demo revived the talk.

If a deal happens, Tuesday’s result would effectively set the price Tesla holders would receive. Their shares would convert into SpaceX stock, along with exposure to a company with a heavy investment on AI, while Tesla itself expects 2026 capex above $25 billion. A strong quarter and calmer spending would make that exchange easier to sell. Another round of heavy capex and a falling stock would make it harder.

Continue Reading

Investor's Corner

Tesla’s flying Roadster just revealed something bigger than the car

Analysts say the Roadster demo puts a Tesla and SpaceX merger back on the table.

Published

on

By

Tesla’s new Roadster, upside down and trailing cold gas thruster smoke, flips over a lineup of Tesla vehicles at the Roadster unveiling near Waco, Texas on October 15, 2026. (Image: Tesla)
Tesla’s new Roadster, upside down and trailing cold gas thruster smoke, flips over a lineup of Tesla vehicles at the Roadster unveiling near Waco, Texas on October 15, 2026. (Image: Tesla)

The Roadster unveiling near Waco ended Thursday night, and by Friday morning much of the investor reaction had less to do with the car than with who owns the rocket technology inside it.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said the event “puts the Tesla/SpaceX relationship on the table in a tangible way,” pointing to the propulsion, pressure vessel and control hardware sitting on a Tesla product. Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management called the demo “a ridiculous display of engineering” with “no commercial value” beyond embarrassing traditional automakers, though he said it showed Musk wants the two companies together.

The more specific forecast came a day earlier from Barclays. Analyst Dan Levy told clients a deal could be announced before Tesla’s annual meeting, which must happen by December 6, and that an announcement in late October or early November could make shareholder approval harder. Barclays expects SpaceX to be the buyer in an all stock deal, with Tesla holders receiving SpaceX shares at a premium, based on market values of roughly $2.1 trillion for SpaceX and $1.5 trillion for Tesla. If nothing lands around the meeting, the bank still sees an announcement within 6 to 12 months.

The Roadster demo just added more weight to merger speculations. Tesla’s demo used cold gas thrusters and pressure tanks of the kind SpaceX uses on Falcon 9, and Musk described the car as a collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX engineers, as we mentioned in our breakdown of the three Roadster configurations.


Musk has not publicly addressed a deal since the event, as far as we have seen. His most direct answer remains the one he gave at the All In Summit, when he said that with so much collaboration, “who can imagine what action one might take” without ruling anything out. Ives has held to a 2027 timeline since his March note, and Musk pushed back on the China piece of the speculation when ARK floated a year end announcement in August.

The next test is Tesla’s third quarter earnings call on October 21. However, we recall in July that Musk told analysts, “we can’t talk about combining companies and that kind of thing on an earnings call,” so a clear answer wouldn’t be expected.

Advertisement
-
Continue Reading