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Toyota exec: US’ 50% EV goal for 2030 a long shot due to lack of consumer demand

Credit: Toyota

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Jack Hollis, Toyota Motor North America’s executive vice president of sales, recently shared some of his thoughts about the United States’ efforts to push the adoption of electric vehicles. The executive’s stance is quite simple: the US’ 50% electric vehicle goal for 2030 is a long shot due to a lack of consumer demand. 

Last year, the Biden administration announced a rather ambitious target. If the Biden administration’s goals are met, then 50% of the US’ new vehicle sales will be battery-electric by 2030. Numerous carmakers have responded appropriately to the targets, with some also noting that they could hit 40% to 50% BEV sales by the end of the decade. 

Hollis, however, does not believe that these goals are realistic. In a recent webinar, the Toyota exec noted that the mass adoption of all-electric cars would likely not develop as fast as EV advocates suggest. This, according to Hollis, is because consumer demand is just not sufficient. BEVs also cost too much, and the infrastructure is not yet there. 

“I don’t think the market is ready. I don’t think the infrastructure is ready. And even if you were ready to purchase one, and if you could afford it … they’re still too high,” Hollis said. 

As noted in a Forbes report, battery electric vehicles commanded 5.2% of the new vehicle market in the United States in the first half of the year, a notable rise from last year’s 2.5%. About 66.1% of BEV sales in the United States were from Texas-based electric car maker Tesla. 

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Hollis does not buy the hype around the rising popularity of EVs and their growing market share. According to the executive, Toyota introduced hybrids over 20 years ago, but even with popular cars like the Prius, the market share of hybrids in the United States is still less than 10%. 

And hybrids, Hollis noted, are now familiar to customers. They’re also affordable, and they do not cause range anxiety. Hybrids also do not rely as heavily on raw battery materials like lithium, some of which come from foreign countries with complicated foreign relations. “It took 25 years to get to less than 10% (market share) for hybrids — which is affordable, which is done with resources that are available,” Hollis said. 

“The consumer isn’t demanding it at that level. The consumer is not screaming, ‘30% or 40% by tomorrow.’ And when you start pushing consumers into things they’re not ready for, some other consequence will occur,” Hollis said. 

It should be noted that despite Hollis’ rhetoric, Toyota is jumping on the BEV trend, though its bZ4x crossover has been beset by problems. The vehicle has been recalled because its wheels may fall off, and recent communication to owners revealed that Toyota had given bZ4x customers the option to have their vehicles repurchased

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk gives key update on plans for Tesla Diner outside of LA

More Tesla Supercharger Diners are on the way, Elon Musk says, as long as the initial one is successful.

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tesla diner supercharger in los angeles california at night
Credit: Tesla

Elon Musk has given a key update on its plans for the Tesla Supercharger Diner, as the first location in Los Angeles is set to open today, July 21.

The idea for the Supercharger Diner, which resembles a 50s-style eatery with elements of futuristic technology, is seven years in the making. Many wondered whether Tesla would expand its idea for a Supercharger restaurant outside of LA, and now we have an answer directly from Musk.

Elon Musk confirms awesome new features at Tesla Diner Supercharger

The Tesla CEO said that the company will establish these types of experiences “in major cities around the world, as well as at Supercharger sites on long distance routes.”

The Supercharger Diner has plenty of ways to draw in customers, and although the food and merchandise sold at the location will not be a major contributor to Tesla’s balance sheet, where investors want to see it, it could pay off in other ways.

The Diner is not exclusive to Tesla owners, so those who drive gas cars can still stop in for a burger, fries, and a shake while roaming around Los Angeles. The features of the Diner, however, do require a Tesla vehicle.

In-car ordering and movie screens syncing to the center touchscreen are two things that Tesla owners will enjoy that other drivers will not. These might be trivial, but the experience on its own could be a way that some consider buying a Tesla.

It might sound crazy that a singular diner experience would flip someone to buy a car, but it’s not the most outlandish thing we’ve ever come across.

The question is where Tesla will plan to build these Supercharger Diners. Musk has already indicated that Starbase, Texas, will be one location, which fits with one of his other companies, SpaceX.

Austin could be an ideal location, but New York, Miami, Washington D.C., Boston, and plenty of other popular metro areas within the U.S. could see their own diners in the coming years.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla analyst says this stock concern is overblown while maintaining $400 PT

Tesla reported $2.763 billion in regulatory credit profits last year.

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Credit: Tesla

One Tesla analyst is saying that a major stock concern that has been discussed as the Trump administration aims to eliminate many financial crutches for EV and sustainable industries is overblown.

As the White House continues to put an emphasis on natural gas, coal, and other fossil fuels, investors are concerned that high-powered sustainability stocks like Tesla stand to take big hits over the coming years.

However, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter believes it is just the opposite, as a new note to investors released on Monday says that the situation, especially regarding regulatory credits, is “not as bad as you think.”

Tesla stacked emissions credits in 2023, while others posted deficits

There have been many things during the Trump administration so far that have led some investors to consider divesting from Tesla altogether. Many people have shied away due to concerns over demand, as the $7,500 new EV tax credit and $4,000 used EV tax credit will bow out at the end of Q3.

The Trump White House could also do away with emissions credits, which aim to give automakers a threshold of emissions to encourage EV production and cleaner powertrains. Companies that cannot meet this threshold can buy credits from other companies, and Tesla has benefitted from this program immensely over the past few years.

As the Trump administration considers eliminating this program, investors are concerned that it could significantly impact Tesla’s balance sheet. Potter believes the issue is overblown:

“We frequently receive questions about Tesla’s regulatory credits, and for good reason: the company received ~$3.5B in ‘free money’ last year, representing roughly 100% of FY24 free cash flow. So it’s fair to ask: will recent regulatory changes threaten Tesla’s earnings outlook? In short, we think the answer is no, at least not in 2025. We think that while it’s true that the U.S. government is committed to rescinding financial support for the EV and battery industries, Tesla will still book around $3B in credits this year, followed by $2.3B in 2026. This latter figure represents a modest reduction vs. our previous expectation…in our view, there’s no need for drastic estimate revisions. Note that it’s difficult to forecast the financial impact of regulatory credits — even Tesla itself struggles with this — but the attached analysis represents an honest effort.”

Tesla’s regulatory credit profitability by year is:

  • 2020: $1.58 billion
  • 2021: $1.465 billion
  • 2022: $1.776 billion
  • 2023: $1.79 billion
  • 2024: $2.763 billion

Potter and Piper Sandler maintained an ‘Overweight’ rating on the stock, and kept their $400 price target.

Tesla shares are trading at $329.63 at 11:39 a.m. on the East Coast.

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Tesla rolls out update to Robotaxi service that makes pickups so much better

The update was confirmed by CEO Elon Musk in a post on social media platform X.

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Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer/X

Tesla has rolled out a minor update to its Robotaxi service that will likely make the driverless ride-hailing system notably better and more convenient for consumers. The update was confirmed by CEO Elon Musk in a post on social media platform X.

Robotaxi service updates

The Robotaxi update was observed by users of the driverless ride-hailing service over the weekend. As observed by Tesla enthusiast Owen Sparks, the Austin Robotaxi fleet no longer strictly navigates to the pickup point listed on the app. Instead, the Robotaxis now stop in the exact location of a user’s phone.

Elon Musk confirmed the update, noting in a post on X that the change was an upgrade to the service. It’s a reactively minor update in the grand scheme of things, but it should make the Robotaxi service feel more organic and humanlike.

https://twitter.com/OwenSparks_/status/1947124143989923955
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1947163583592452482

Driverless taxis

Tesla’s Robotaxi service in Austin has been receiving good reviews from users since it was launched, with many praising the vehicles for their cautious and humanlike behavior. Some users on social media even noted that Tesla’s Robotaxis feel safer on the road than cars from services like Uber, which are manually driven.

Tesla’s minor updates to its Robotaxi service are expected to make the customer experience of the driverless ride-hailing service more refined. By doing so, Tesla could ease customers into its service, even if only a fraction of ride-hailing users are familiar with fully autonomous cars. With this in mind, even small updates like picking up customers based on their specific phone location will likely go a long way towards making Tesla’s Robotaxis more accepted by the general public. 

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