Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is expected to report its fourth quarter 2024 vehicle delivery report later this week. Amidst these expectations, UBS analyst Joseph Spak has shared his estimates for the electric vehicle maker’s Q4 2024 results.
UBS expectations:
- Spak expects Tesla to report vehicle deliveries of 510,000 units for the fourth quarter.
- This would suggest a 5% year-over-year and 10% quarter-over-quarter increase in vehicle deliveries.
- These numbers, however, are 1% below the analyst consensus of 512,000 units, as noted in a Markets Insider report.
- The UBS analyst noted that despite the potential miss, Tesla’s Q4 2024 deliveries might not be as meaningful as in the past since the company’s narrative has shifted to artificial intelligence.
- Joseph Spak maintains a “Sell” rating and a $226 per share price target on Tesla stock.
Other analyst expectations:
- Barclays analysts seem a bit more optimistic about Tesla’s fourth quarter deliveries.
- The Barclays analysts expect Tesla to deliver around 515,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter.
- Similar to Spak, the Barclays analysts also noted that the importance of Q4 2024’s raw vehicle delivery figures is not as high as in the past.
- “Investors overwhelmingly agree that the importance of this Q4 volume print is relatively lower than normal,” the Barclays analysts noted.
Tesla’s company-compiled consensus:
- According to Tesla’s company-compiled consensus, analysts anticipate that the electric vehicle manufacturer will report 506,763 vehicle deliveries for the fourth quarter of 2024.
- The projections include 476,398 deliveries for Model 3 and Model Y, and 31,755 deliveries for all other models.
- These figures suggest that Tesla will report a total of 1,801,709 vehicle deliveries worldwide for 2024.
- For comparison, Tesla delivered 1,808,581 vehicles globally in 2023.


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Investor's Corner
Elon Musk praises Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater for accumulating TSLA stock

A recent 13-F filing from legendary investor and billionaire Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates has revealed that the hedge fund has added over $62 million worth of Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) to its portfolio.
Elon Musk has praised the billionaire’s investment in a post on X.
Bridgewater’s TSLA stake:
- As per Bridgewater’s 13-F filing, it currently holds 153,589 shares of TSLA, which costs $62,025,382.
- The firm added the TSLA shares in the fourth quarter.
- Tesla shares gained momentum after its Q3 2024 earnings call, and it only gained more strength after the election of U.S. President Donald Trump.
- At the end of 2024, Tesla shares were up 62%, as noted in a MarketWatch report.
- Tesla stock is still up 88% over 12 months despite a steep drop over the past month.
Smart move
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 14, 2025
A vote of confidence:
- Bridgewater Associates is one of the largest hedge funds in the world, so the firm’s stake in TSLA could be interpreted as a vote of confidence in the electric vehicle maker.
- Elon Musk has praised the firm’s investment. In a post on X, Musk noted that Bridgewater’s investment was a “smart move.”
- Elon Musk has been quite consistent on his idea that Tesla could eventually become the world’s most valuable company. He emphasized this point during the Q4 2024 earnings call.
- “I see a path. I’m not saying it’s an easy path but I see a path of Tesla being the most valuable company in the world by far. Not even close. There is a path where Tesla is worth more than the next top five companies combined,” Musk said.


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Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) gets $475 price target and “Buy” rating from Benchmark

Tesla shares (NASDAQ:TSLA) have received a “Buy” rating and a $475 per share price target from Benchmark.
Benchmark’s price target is based on 68.2 times its 2028 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), as noted in a Morningstar report.
Tesla rating:
- In a note to clients, Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg noted that Tesla has outlined a path towards more growth through several of its initiatives.
- These include Tesla’s work in autonomous driving systems, robotics, and energy generation.
- The company could also make more headway into the electric vehicle segment.
- “The company has outlined a path for growth with a more affordable vehicle scheduled for 1H25, unsupervised full self-driving as a paid service this June in Austin, TX, and Optimus robot production ramp through 2026 and beyond,” the analyst stated.
$TSLA +1.8% pre-mkt as Benchmark initiates TSLA with a Buy rating and $475 price target. pic.twitter.com/KT6BTTW5kJ
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) February 12, 2025
More potential:
- While he sees potential in Tesla, the Benchmark analyst noted that his current model only incorporates vehicle growth.
- Thus, there could be “significant potential upside” if the company’s autonomous vehicle program and Optimus are scaled.
- “Tesla’s market leadership, near-term catalysts, strong management, and diversified business justify the stock’s market premium,” Legg noted.


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Investor's Corner
Tesla is ‘better-positioned’ as a company and as a stock as tariff situation escalates

Tesla is “better-positioned” as a company and as a stock as the tariff situation between the United States, Mexico, and Canada continues to escalate as President Donald Trump announced sanctions against those countries.
Analysts at Piper Sandler are unconcerned regarding Tesla’s position as a high-level stock holding as the tariff drama continues to unfold. This is mostly due to its reputation as a vehicle manufacturer in the domestic market, especially as it holds a distinct advantage of having some of the most American-made vehicles in the country.
Analysts at the firm, led by Alexander Potter, said Tesla is “one of the most defensive stocks” in the automotive sector as the tariff situation continues.
The defensive play comes from the nature of the stock, which should not be too impacted from a U.S. standpoint because of its focus on building vehicles and sourcing parts from manufacturers and companies based in the United States. Tesla has held the distinct title of having several of the most American-made cars, based on annual studies from Cars.com.
Its most recent study, released in June 2024, showed that the Model Y, Model S, and Model X are three of the top ten vehicles with the most U.S.-based manufacturing.
Tesla captures three spots in Cars.com’s American-Made Index, only U.S. manufacturer in list
The year prior, Tesla swept the top four spots of the study.
Piper Sandler analysts highlighted this point in a new note on Monday morning amidst increasing tension between the U.S. and Canada, as Mexico has already started to work with the Trump Administration on a solution:
“Tesla assembles five vehicles in the U.S., and all five rank among the most American-made cars.”
However, with that being said, there is certainly the potential for things to get tougher. The analysts believe that Tesla, while potentially impacted, will be in a better position than most companies because of their domestic position:
“If nothing changes in the next few days, tariffs will almost certainly deal a crippling blow to automotive supply chains in North America. [There is a possibility that] Trump capitulates in some way (perhaps he’ll delay implementation, in an effort to save face).”
There is no evidence that Tesla will be completely bulletproof when it comes to these potential impacts. However, it is definitely better insulated than other companies.
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