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Waymo leads robotaxi industry, at least for now

Credit: Waymo

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In 2024, Alphabet-owned Waymo emerged as the clear front-runner in the U.S. robotaxi industry. Waymo has so far completed 4 million paid autonomous trips, more than triple the number from the previous year. The company is currently offering its robotaxi service in Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles.

Waymo is not resting on its laurels. A $5.6 billion investment from Alphabet, and a strategic partnership with Geely for custom vehicles, among other things, signal plans for further growth. The company also intends to expand to Austin, Atlanta, and even internationally into Tokyo, as noted in a CNBC report.

The Competition:

While Waymo is the runaway leader in robotaxis for now, the company is poised to meet some substantial competition.

  • Tesla’s Ambition: Elon Musk’s Tesla, despite a history of missed deadlines, has made its robotaxi intentions very clear during the unveiling of the Cybercab and Robovan in October. While still without a commercial service, Tesla aims to leverage its existing vehicle fleet, like the Model Y and Model 3, for robotaxi operations, pending regulatory approval.
  • Zoox’s Niche: Amazon’s Zoox, with its distinctive “toaster”-shaped shuttle, has made inroads by securing permits for public rides and expanding testing environments to include night and light rain conditions. Although not at Waymo’s scale, Zoox’s unique design and targeted expansion plan in cities like Las Vegas and San Francisco suggest that it could be a serious robotaxi player.
  • The Cruise Conundrum: General Motors’ decision to close its Cruise robotaxi division, after investing $10 billion, underscores the challenges in this space. However, GM has noted that it will now focus on the development of “personal autonomous vehicles” instead of robotaxis.

The Market Dynamics:

  • The global ride-sharing market, estimated at $123.08 billion in 2024, is projected to reach $480.09 billion by 2032, as per research from Fortune Business Insights.
  • That’s a very lucrative market that is just waiting to be disrupted by autonomous robotaxi services.

The Bottom Line:

  • Waymo’s lead in the robotaxi industry is clear, with tangible progress in service availability and technological adaptation.
  • However, Tesla’s large fleet and scalability and Zoox’s Amazon backing signal that the race is on. As Tesla works to turn its vision into reality and Zoox expands its footprint, Waymo’s lead might be challenged in the coming years.

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

Investor's Corner

xAI targets $5 billion debt offering to fuel company goals

Elon Musk’s xAI is targeting a $5B debt raise, led by Morgan Stanley, to scale its artificial intelligence efforts.

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(Credit: xAI)

xAI’s $5 billion debt offering, marketed by Morgan Stanley, underscores Elon Musk’s ambitious plans to expand the artificial intelligence venture. The xAI package comprises bonds and two loans, highlighting the company’s strategic push to fuel its artificial intelligence development.

Last week, Morgan Stanley began pitching a floating-rate term loan B at 97 cents on the dollar with a variable interest rate of 700 basis points over the SOFR benchmark, one source said. A second option offers a fixed-rate loan and bonds at 12%, with terms contingent on investor appetite. This “best efforts” transaction, where the debt size hinges on demand, reflects cautious lending in an uncertain economic climate.

According to Reuters sources, Morgan Stanley will not guarantee the issue volume or commit its own capital in the xAI deal, marking a shift from past commitments. The change in approach stems from lessons learned during Musk’s 2022 X acquisition when Morgan Stanley and six other banks held $13 billion in debt for over two years.

Morgan Stanley and the six other banks backing Musk’s X acquisition could only dispose of that debt earlier this year. They capitalized on X’s improved operating performance over the previous two quarters as traffic on the platform increased engagement around the U.S. presidential elections. This time, Morgan Stanley’s prudent strategy mitigates similar risks.

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Beyond debt, xAI is in talks to raise $20 billion in equity, potentially valuing the company between $120 billion and $200 billion, sources said. In April, Musk hinted at a significant valuation adjustment for xAI, stating he was looking to put a “proper value” on xAI during an investor call.

As xAI pursues this $5 billion debt offering, its financial strategy positions it to lead the AI revolution, blending innovation with market opportunity.

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SpaceX to debut new Dragon capsule in Axiom Space launch

Ax-4’s launch marks the debut of SpaceX’s latest Crew Dragon and pushes Axiom closer to building its own space station.

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(Credit: SpaceX)

Axiom Space’s Ax-4 mission targets the International Space Station (ISS) with a new SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule.

The Axiom team will launch a new SpaceX Dragon capsule atop a Falcon 9 rocket from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Wednesday at 8:00 a.m. EDT (1200 GMT). The Ax-4 mission launch was initially set for Tuesday, June 10, but was delayed by one day due to expected high winds.

As Axiom Space’s fourth crewed mission to the ISS, Ax-4 marks the debut of an updated SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule. “This is the first flight for this Dragon capsule, and it’s carrying an international crew—a perfect debut. We’ve upgraded storage, propulsion components, and the seat lash design for improved reliability and reuse,” said William Gerstenmaier, SpaceX’s vice president of build and flight reliability.

Axiom Space is a Houston-based private space infrastructure company. It has been launching private astronauts to the ISS for research and training since 2022, building expertise for its future station. With NASA planning to decommission the ISS by 2030, Axiom has laid the groundwork for the Axiom Station, the world’s first commercial space station. The company has already begun construction on its ISS replacement.

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The Ax-4 mission’s research, spanning biological, life, and material sciences and Earth observation, will support this ambitious goal. Contributions from 31 countries underscore the mission’s global scope. The four-person crew will launch from Launch Complex 39A, embarking on a 14-day mission to conduct approximately 60 scientific studies.

“The AX-4 crew represents the very best of international collaboration, dedication, and human potential. Over the past 10 months, these astronauts have trained with focus and determination, each of them exceeding the required thresholds to ensure mission safety, scientific rigor, and operational excellence,” said Allen Flynt, Axiom Space’s chief of mission services.

The Ax-4 mission highlights Axiom’s commitment to advancing commercial space exploration. By leveraging SpaceX’s Dragon capsule and conducting diverse scientific experiments, Axiom is paving the way for its Axiom Station. This mission not only strengthens international collaborations but also positions Axiom as a leader in the evolving landscape of private space infrastructure.

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Tesla named official AV operator in Austin ahead of robotaxi launch

Tesla robotaxis could begin operating around Austin any day now, as echoed by an update to the city’s website.

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Just as Tesla prepares to launch its own commercial robotaxi services in Austin, Texas this month, the company has now appeared on the state’s website as an official operator of autonomous vehicles (AVs).

As of Monday, Tesla has been listed as an AV operator on Austin’s official Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) site, ahead of the company’s expected launch of the long-awaited service sometime this month. The news, which X user Tesla Yoda first spotted, precedes some reports suggesting the robotaxi service could launch in the coming days, and it comes as the city becomes an increasingly competitive stomping ground for the emerging technology.

Although Tesla has been included on the list, the website says that Tesla is still in the testing phase, alongside most of the other AV operators in the city. At this time, Alphabet-owned robotaxi company Waymo is the only operator listed as being in the deployment phase, while Hyundai-owned company Motional is listed as being in the mapping phase.

Tesla is set to initially deploy the service as a limited pilot program using the company’s existing Model Y vehicles, and it will start by testing them in the safest areas of the city within geo-mapped boundaries as extra safety precautions upon launch.

Below you can see the full list of AV operators on the Austin DMV website at the time of writing, including both the Alphabet-owned Waymo and the Amazon-run Zoox.

Current list of AV operators in Austin

  • ADMT
    • Phase: testing
    • Parent company: VW
  • AVRide
    • Phase: testing
    • Parent company: AVRide Inc
  • Motional
    • Phase: mapping
    • Parent company: Hyundai
  • Waymo
    • Phase: deployment
    • Parent company: Alphabet (Google)
  • Tesla
    • Phase: testing
    • Parent company: Tesla
  • Zoox
    • Phase: testing
    • Parent company: Amazon

READ MORE ON AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES: Elon Musk just revealed more about Tesla’s June Robotaxi launch

Tesla’s Austin robotaxi launch, Full Self-Driving, and other AV companies

The news follows a report from Bloomberg a few weeks ago saying that Tesla was considering a launch date of June 12 for the service, though the validity of that report is still unclear. Additionally, Tesla could still change its plans on a launch date, though the company’s inclusion on the Austin DMV AV operators list appears to be a good sign either way.

The company has also been running internal pilot programs for the robotaxi service in Austin and around the Bay Area, California, with around 300 test operators operating the vehicles in the Texas city since at least April. Last fall, CEO Elon Musk also said that employees had already been piloting a ride-hailing program around the Bay.

Tesla has long touted its Full Self-Driving (FSD) program as the solution to autonomy, with the system utilizing cameras and real-time driver footage to train its AI neural network on how to drive. By comparison, most other companies utilize cameras and radar systems together, while relying on geo-mapped systems to determine where the robotaxi can operate.

Waymo launched driverless ride-hailing services in Austin through a partnership with Uber, though the company has also been running paid robotaxi rides in various parts of California since last year through its Waymo One app. Other companies such as the Amazon-owned firm Zoox and the Hyundai-led company Motional are also preparing to deploy services in Austin and other U.S. cities.

Tesla’s ‘Project Alicorn’ and what it means for the Robotaxi platform

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