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What’s causing SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy delays?
Although uncertainty in the schedule remains, SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket appears to be nearly ready for its first engine ignition test (called a ‘static fire’) sometime within the next week or so.
An attempt at 1 PM EST today, January 16, was canceled for unspecified reasons, although Kennedy Space Center reportedly maintained the usual roadblock to prevent vehicles from driving past, implying that SpaceX still intends to conduct propellant loading tests with Falcon Heavy. It was noted earlier this morning by spaceflight journalist Chris Bergin that things were “a bit too quiet” if a test was indeed planned for today, and his intuition appears to have been correct. It still remains the case that Falcon Heavy is an experimental and untested rocket to an extent, and these delays are to be expected as SpaceX works out the inevitable kinks and bugs that arise during the extensive testing big launch vehicle has been and is still being put through.
KSC is in roadblock stance, so they will still do some testing it would seem, but we will have to wait for the Static Fire itself. https://t.co/DxzsRn85NR
— NSF – NASASpaceflight.com (@NASASpaceflight) January 16, 2018
Due to range requirements in support of an upcoming launch of the United Launch Alliance’s (ULA) Atlas 5 rocket, currently NET Thursday, SpaceX has postponed the static fire of Falcon Heavy without a replacement date. It is unlikely that another attempt will occur before the upcoming weekend, but SpaceX should have at least a solid week of uninterrupted range support once ULA’s launch occurs, hopefully without delay. Godspeed to ULA, in the meantime.
The crazy complexity of rocketry
Most recently, and perhaps somewhat related to Falcon Heavy’s static fire delays, SpaceX completed as many as two complete wet dress rehearsals (WDRs), which saw Falcon Heavy topped off with full tanks of its cryogenic (super cool) liquid oxygen (LOX) and rocket-grade jet fuel (RP-1). In essence, the rocket became equivalent to several hundred tons of carefully stabilized explosive. Nominally, these rehearsals appear entirely uneventful to an outside observer, with little more than ice formation and the occasional bursts of propellant tank vents to suggest that something important is occurring. However, anomalies like the failure of Falcon 9 during the Amos-6 static fire provide a staggering demonstration of just how explosive and sensitive a rocket’s fuel is, and Falcon Heavy has approximately three times the fuel capacity of Falcon 9. Empty, Falcon 9’s mass has been estimated to be around 30 metric tons, a minuscule amount of structure in the face of the more than 500 metric tons of propellant the vehicle carries at liftoff.
These propellant loading tests can also be challenging for reasons aside from their highly explosive nature. Due to basic realities of the physical nature of metal, the predominate ingredient for Falcon 9’s load-bearing structures, metallic structures shrink under extreme cold (and expand under heating). In the case of Falcon 9’s massive 45 meters (150 foot) tall first stage, the scale of this contraction can be on the order of several inches or more, particularly given SpaceX’s predilection towards cooling their propellant as much as possible to increase its energy density. For Falcon 9, these issues (thermodynamic loads) are less severe. However, add in three relatively different first stage boosters linked together with several extremely strong supports at both their tops and bottoms and that dynamic loading can become a fickle beast. The expansion or compression of materials due to temperature changes can create absolutely astounding amounts of pressure – if you’ve ever forgotten a glass bottled drink in the freezer and discovered it violently exploded at some future point, you’ll have experienced this yourself.
With several inches of freedom and the possibility that each Falcon Heavy booster might contract or expand slightly differently, these forces could understandably wreak havoc with the high precision necessary for the huge rocket to properly connect with the launch pad’s ground systems that transmit propellant, fluids, and telemetry back and forth. Information from two reliable Kennedy Space Center sources experienced with the reality of operating rockets, as well as NASASpaceflight.com, suggested that issues with dynamic loads (such as those created by thermal contraction/expansion) are a likely explanation for the delays, further evidenced by their observations that much of the pad crew’s attention appeared to be focused at the base of Transporter/Erector/Launcher (TEL). The TEL base hosts the clamps that hold the rocket down during static fires and launches, as well as the Tail Service Masts (TSMs) that connect with the Falcon 9/Heavy to transport propellant and data to the first stage(s). These connection points are both relatively tiny, mechanically sensitive, and absolutely critical for the successful operation of the rocket, and thus are a logical point of failure in the event of off-nominal or unpredicted levels of dynamic stresses.
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- The white bars in this photo are half of Falcon Heavy’s seperation mechanism. A number of actuators take the place of the more common solid rocket motors used with vehicles like the Delta IV Heavy. (SpaceX)
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- Falcon Heavy’s three boosters and 27 Merlin 1D engines on full display. (SpaceX)
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- Falcon Heavy. Modeled and rendered by NASASpaceflight forum user WBY1984. (WBY1984)
Test, launch, land, repeat.
All things considered, these difficulties demonstrate that even after months (even years) of relentless modeling, testing, remodeling, and retesting, rockets (and especially huge rockets like Falcon Heavy) are immensely complex, and even tiny mistakes can lead the vehicle to stray from its expected behavior. Quite simply, the reality of engineering only truly comes into play once hardware is fully in the loop, and it’s in this state that SpaceX has demonstrated again and again a distinct and elegant ability to learn from their hardware, rather than attempt to salve uncertainty with a neurotic and counterproductive level of statistical analysis, modelling, and documentation. The agile launch company still dabbles in those aspects when beneficial or necessary, but testing comes first in its importance.
The conclusion here, then, is that Falcon Heavy’s delays betray this aspect of SpaceX – a launch company that loves its fans, but also understands the need for cautious testing when it comes to new and untried rocket hardware. Whether Falcon Heavy succeeds or fails, SpaceX will learn from the proceedings, and they will be better off for it (although maybe less so financially…).
Follow along live as launch photographer Tom Cross and I cover these exciting proceedings as close to live as possible.
Teslarati – Instagram – Twitter
Tom Cross – Instagram
Eric Ralph – Twitter
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst: ‘near zero chance’ Elon Musk’s $1T comp package is rejected
“There is a near-zero chance that $TSLA shareholders will vote down Elon’s new proposed comp plan at the Nov 6 shareholders’ meeting.”
A Tesla analyst says there is “zero chance” that CEO Elon Musk’s new compensation package is rejected, a testament to the loyalty and belief many shareholders and investors have in the frontman.
Tesla investors will vote on November 6 at the annual Shareholder Meeting to approve a new compensation package for Musk, revealed by the company’s Board of Directors earlier this month.
The package, if approved, would give Musk the opportunity to earn $1 trillion in stock, an ownership concentration of over 27 percent (a major request of Musk’s), and a solidified future at the company.
The Tesla Community on X, the social media platform Musk bought in 2023, is overwhelmingly in favor of the pay package, though a handful of skeptics remain.
Nevertheless, the big pulls of this vote are held by proxy firms and other large-scale investors. Two of them, Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) and Glass Lewis, said they would be voting against Musk’s proposed compensation plan.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package hits first adversity from proxy firm
Today, the State Board of Administration of Florida (SBA) said it would vote in favor of Musk’s newly-proposed pay day, making it the first large-scale shareholder to announce it would support the CEO’s pay.
One analyst said that Musk’s payday is inevitable. Gary Black of the Future Fund said today there is a “near-zero chance” that shareholders will allow Musk’s pay package to be rejected:
“There is a near-zero chance that $TSLA shareholders will vote down Elon’s new proposed comp plan at the Nov 6 shareholders’ meeting.”
He added an alternative perspective from Wedbush’s Dan Ives, who said that he had a better chance of starting for the New York Yankees than the comp package not being approved.
There is a near zero chance that $TSLA shareholders will vote down Elon’s new proposed comp plan at the Nov 6 shareholders’ meeting. As Wedbush analyst Dan Ives (@divestech) colorfully put it in a Yahoo Finance interview on October 23rd: “I have a better chance of starting for…
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) October 27, 2025
Black’s the Future Fund sold its Tesla holdings earlier this year. He explained that the firm believed the company’s valuation was too disconnected from fundamentals, citing the P/E ratio of 188x and declining earnings estimates.
The firm maintained its $310 price target, and shares were trading at $356.90 that day.
Shares closed at $452.42 today.
The latest predictions from betting platform Kalshi have shown Musk’s comp package has a 94 percent chance of being approved:
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) October 20, 2025
Elon Musk
Tesla gains massive vote of confidence on compensation plan for Elon Musk
“”The SBA supported Tesla’s 2018 performance award proposal and reaffirmed that support in the 2024 Tesla shareowner vote. The total return on Tesla’s stock after enactment of its 2018 performance award and the prior history of incentive structured plans leads us to strongly support the proposed 2025 CEO performance award.”
Tesla gained a massive vote of confidence on its proposed $1 trillion compensation plan for CEO Elon Musk from the State Board of Administration of Florida (SBA) on Monday.
On Monday, the SBA submitted a filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) stating that it would vote to support Musk’s compensation plan, just as it did with the 2018 performance award and its second vote last year:
“The SBA supported Tesla’s 2018 performance award proposal and reaffirmed that support in the 2024 Tesla shareowner vote. The total return on Tesla’s stock after enactment of its 2018 performance award and the prior history of incentive structured plans leads us to strongly support the proposed 2025 CEO performance award. We believe the proposed award continues to promote an aggressive strategy to align incentives between management and shareowners and focuses solely on pecuniary factors and long-term shareowner value creation.”
This is the first large-scale shareholder that has come out and supported Musk’s potential compensation plan, which was outlined by Tesla and its Board of Directors earlier this month.
Most of the news surrounding Musk’s pay plan has been the opposite of what the SBA said today, as Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) and Glass Lewis, two proxy firms, said they would be voting against the compensation package.
Tesla Board Chair defends Elon Musk’s pay plan, slams proxy advisors
Musk replied to their vote last week during the Q3 Earnings Call, calling them “corporate terrorists.”
He said:
“I just don’t feel comfortable building a robot army here and then being ousted because of some asinine recommendations from ISS and Glass Lewis, who have no freaking clue. I mean, those guys are corporate terrorists. The problem, yeah. Let me explain, like, the core problem here is that so many of the index funds, passive funds, vote along the lines of whatever Glass Lewis and ISS recommend. They’ve made many terrible recommendations in the past. If those recommendations had been followed, they would have been extremely destructive to the future of the company.”
SBA’s perspective on the plan relies on what Musk has done in the past decade with Tesla, as he has driven company growth, increased shareholder value, and kept the company on track with its lofty and ambitious goals.
It also outlined nine reasons to support Musk’s compensation:
- Pure Pay for Performance Design – Entirely Performance-Based, aligns with Shareowners
- Size of the Award and Share Count – Performance-based allocation, dilution tied to value creation, structured milestone design
- Market Capitalization Milestones – Clear, tiered targets, sustained performance requirement, shareholder value focus
- Operational/Product Milestones – Clear, quantifiable goals, strategic product focus, financial discipline, multi-quarter evaluation windows
- Vesting/Holding Periods – Long-term vesting structure, mandatory holding period, continuous service requirement
- CEO Succession – Succession planning requirement, performance integrity safeguard
- Time Horizon and Duration – Extended performance window of 10 years, no intermediate vesting
- Dilution & Voting Power Implications – Potential for significant ownership increase, permanent dilution
- Ambition and Stretch Goals – Extraordinary Scale of Growth, Shareowner value focus
Shareholders will vote on Musk’s compensation package on November 6 at the annual Shareholder Meeting.
Tesla Optimus was spotted in its latest job placement, not at any of the company’s manufacturing or production facilities.
Optimus was instead spotted in New York City at Times Square, handing out Halloween candy to people:
Just saw Optimus in Times Square handing out candy to people! Pretty cool $tsla pic.twitter.com/Eg5Q8KH17H
— Will Coggins (@Patient_Profits) October 27, 2025
It is not Tesla Optimus’s first gig in the service industry, as it has already secured several employment opportunities through the company’s projects. Last year, it served drinks at the company’s We, Robot day, where the Cybercab and Robovan were unveiled.
Additionally, Optimus has been helping out at the Tesla Diner in Los Angeles, serving popcorn and greeting guests.
Elon Musk reveals big plans for Tesla Optimus at the Supercharger Diner
Optimus has many capabilities, and its applications can benefit both residential and commercial users. It is designed to be an at-home assistant, helping with tedious, monotonous tasks around the house.
In a commercial setting, Optimus will be programmed to handle everything from manufacturing to other factory-type tasks, as Tesla has already been using the robot in its own factories for smaller jobs.
Optimus has been in development for several years, but Tesla is ready to turn up the heat in terms of its capabilities and engineering as it prepares to launch it to a wider audience in the coming years.
During the recent Q3 Earnings Call, Tesla CEO Elon Musk gave updates on the Optimus project, highlighting its progress and the company’s current development status.
Musk said that Tesla is “on the cusp of something really tremendous with Optimus, which I think is likely to be, has the potential to be, the biggest product of all time.” He also mentioned that Tesla is in an interesting position because not only has it established itself as one of the biggest car companies in the country, but it’s the only company that manufactures vehicles and has a monumental grasp of the importance of AI and robotics.
“I’m unaware of any robot program by Ford or GM or, you know, by U.S. car companies,” he said.
Musk added that Optimus has some pretty big responsibilities around Tesla’s factories:
“I mean, bringing Optimus to market is an incredibly difficult task, to be clear. It’s not like some walk in the park. At some point, I mean, actually, technically, Optimus can walk in the park right now. We do have Optimus robots that walk around our offices at our engineering headquarters in Palo Alto, California, basically twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week.”
Right now, it appears Tesla is having its biggest challenge with the Optimus project around the development of its hands and forearms, which Musk called “an incredible thing” on the human body:
“The human hand is an incredible thing. The more you study the human hand, the more incredible you realize it is, and why you need four fingers and a thumb, why the fingers have certain degrees of freedom, why the various muscles are of different strengths, and fingers are of different lengths. It turns out that those are all there for a reason…Making the hand and forearm, because most of the actuators, just like the human hand, the muscles that control your hand are actually primarily in your forearm. The Optimus hand and forearm are an incredibly difficult engineering challenge. I’d say it’s more difficult than the rest of the robot from an electromechanical standpoint.”
Tesla is stumped on how to engineer this Optimus part, but they’re close
Optimus is starting to get more visibility in the public, and Tesla’s move to put it smack dab in the middle of New York City is one that will certainly bring some additional eyes to its development.
Tesla analyst: ‘near zero chance’ Elon Musk’s $1T comp package is rejected
Tesla gains massive vote of confidence on compensation plan for Elon Musk
Tesla Optimus gets its latest job, and it’s not in the company’s factories
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