SpaceX
DeepSpace: A critical juncture for SpaceX, Blue Origin, ULA, other players

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A high-pressure competition between all four major US launch providers – SpaceX, ULA, Blue Origin, and Orbital ATK (now NGIS) – is about to head into its most critical stage, a period of 60 days allotted for interested parties to submit their completed proposals. According to the US Air Force (USAF), the final request for proposals (RFP) could come as early as March 29th, giving the four aforementioned companies until May 28th to complete their proposals.
All things considered, the growing pressure and some of the USAF’s strategy behind the program – known as Launch Service Procurement (LSP) Phase 2 – has raised significant questions that remain largely unanswered and lead to a few mild bouts of strife or unhappiness from contract competitors. Most notably, Blue Origin – having just won a USAF development contract worth $500M – has repeatedly requested that the USAF and Department of Defense (DoD) delay the RFP and contract awards until 2021, according to Space News’ Sandra Erwin. Meanwhile, a lack of clarification from the USAF means that it’s unclear whether the strategy behind launch contract awards (LSP) will end up contradicting or undermining a partially connected development program known as Launch Service Agreements (LSA) that saw the USAF award ~$2B to three providers (excluding SpaceX) between 2018 and 2024.
Battle of the Acronyms: LSP vs. LSA
- Recently rebranded by the US military as the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program, LSP Phase 1 and 2 and LSA are the latest major procurement initiatives begun under the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) program, spun up in the 1990s to provide a firmer foundation for the commercial launch of military spacecraft after the 1986 Shuttle Challenger disaster pushed most satellites off of the platform.
- Phase 2 of the EELV program has been ongoing for several years and will culminate with the procurement of 25+ launch contracts (LSP) from two providers no earlier than 2020. The USAF’s Launch Service Agreements are also a major strategic feature of Phase 2, nominally seeing the military branch contribute major funding to assist in the development of three separate launch vehicles (New Glenn, Vulcan, and Omega) with the intention of ultimately certifying those rockets for EELV (now NSSL) launches.
- LSA also saw the USAF award several tens of millions to SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Aerojet Rocketdyne to develop capabilities centered around advanced, new rocket engines (BE-4, AR-1, and Raptor), but the latest phase of LSA is valued at least several times higher than its earlier engine-specific awards.
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- Oddly, the purpose of LSA was – at least on the cover – to effectively ensure that the Air Force had multiple (more than two) providers and thus preserve a healthy, competitive military launch market. A senior leader specifically stated that “the goal of [LSA] is to make sure [the US military has] a competitive industrial base.”
- Aside from an initial $181M awarded to Blue Origin, ULA, and Orbital ATK (now Northrop Grumman Innovation Systems, NGIS) in 2018 and 2019, the remaining funding – up to $320M for Blue Origin’s New Glenn, $610M for NGIS’ Omega, and $785M for ULA’s Vulcan – would be dispersed to each provider between 2020 and 2024.
- However, an odd and controversial bit of language behind the coming five-year launch services procurement (LSP) initiative would completely cut off funding to LSA awardees in the event that they fail to be awarded launches from the latest LSP.
- Additionally, the LSP awards are strictly meant – apparently very intentionally – to be distrubuted among two launch providers, despite a minimum at least four being able (SpaceX) or required (ULA, Blue, NGIS) to enter a bid.
- In other words, this guarantees that either one or two of the three LSA awardees would have the vast majority of their supposedly awarded development funding cut off after FY2020, four years early.
- Oddly, the purpose of LSA was – at least on the cover – to effectively ensure that the Air Force had multiple (more than two) providers and thus preserve a healthy, competitive military launch market. A senior leader specifically stated that “the goal of [LSA] is to make sure [the US military has] a competitive industrial base.”
- Despite continued protests from a number of stakeholders, the USAF has refused to budge from its decision to simultaneously A) create a duopoly, B) defeat the purpose of LSA awards, and C) mass-award ~25 launch contracts to two providers in 2020, anywhere from 12-24 months prior to the planned inaugural launches of all three LSA-funded rockets.
- Without cost-sharing development funds from the USAF and a chance of winning more than a handful of US military launch contracts between now and the late 2020s, it can be all but guaranteed that an LSA funding cutoff will either indefinitely pause or slow to a crawl a given provider’s development of their proposed launch vehicle.

A rocket and a hard place
- This sticky situation thus offers up a few potential ways that this badly-designed (or entirely dishonest) military launch development and procurement strategy will end up by the end of 2020. One way or another, the current strategy as it stands will end up providing two (or one, given that SpaceX will not receive LSA funding) companies with several years of development funding and at least five years of bountiful, guaranteed launch contracts.
- The four providers and two LSP slots available offer a set range of possible alternate realities, limited by political barriers that would, say, almost invariably prevent the USAF from severely harming ULA by cutting off the vast majority of the company’s only real source of income for 5+ years.
- ULA and SpaceX win: This maintains the status quo, wholly invalidating the point of using LSA funds to ensure “a competitive industrial base.” NGIS likely cancels/freezes all Omega development with no chance of competing in commercial markets. Blue Origin owner Jeff Bezos could significantly delay New Glenn’s readiness for military missions if he fails to invest an additional $500M in infrastructure. Likeliest result: a marginally competitive duopoly.
- ULA wins, SpaceX loses: Having just certified Falcon 9 – and nearly Falcon Heavy – for high-value military launches and awarded SpaceX a total of 10 launch contracts (9 yet to be completed), the USAF could effectively spit in SpaceX’s face and award ULA and Blue Origin or NGIS LSP’s 25+ launch contracts.
- It’s hard to exaggerate just how much of a slight this would be perceived as by SpaceX and its executives, CEO Elon Musk in particular. The USAF would be risking the creation of a major political enemy, one which has already demonstrated a willingness to take the federal government to court and win. The USAF/DoD would effectively be hedging their bets against an assumption that SpaceX’s nine present military launch contracts will sate the company and ensure that SpaceX indefinitely remains a certified EELV/NSSL provider.
- In this eventuality, either Blue Origin or NGIS would lose LSA funding and the prospect of almost any military launch contracts until the late 2020s. For NGIS, this would likely kill Omega.
- At the end of the day, it’s sadly conceivable that the USAF/DoD may end up awarding LSP contracts to ULA (effectively a politically-forced hand) and NGIS, the latter assuring Omega’s survival. The military would thus be assuming that the political fallout created with SpaceX and Blue Origin would not be enough to severely harm their relationships, while also assuming that their much stronger commercial prospects and independent funding sources would ensure that each provider remains certified and willing to compete for future NSSL/EELV launches.
Regardless of what happens, the contradictory ways the USAF/DoD have structured their LSA and LSP programs seems bizarrely intent on creating major headaches and potential problems where that could easily be avoided with extraordinarily simple changes, namely removing the inexplicable cap and allowing three or more companies to win some of the ~25 LSP launch contracts).
Mission Updates
- The second launch of Falcon Heavy – the rocket’s commercial debut – is still scheduled to occur as early as April 7th.
- After Falcon Heavy, Cargo Dragon’s CRS-17 resupply mission is firmly scheduled for April (April 25th), while the first dedicated Starlink launch is now NET May 2019.
Photo of the Week:

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk offered a glimpse of a 1650 Kelvin (2500ºF/1400ºC) test of Starship’s metallic heat shield, simulating mid-range temperatures such a shield’s windward side might experience during an orbital-velocity reentry.(c. Elon Musk/SpaceX)

News
Tesla China’s first Megapack exports are headed for a big battery in Australia
The Tesla Megapack batteries are bound for Queensland’s Western Downs battery project.

A few days ago, Tesla announced that the first Megapack battery units from its Shanghai “Megafactory” were being shipped to Australia.
As per recent reports, the massive grid-scale Tesla batteries are bound for Queensland’s Western Downs battery project.
The Shanghai Megafactory
The Shanghai Megafactory is Tesla’s first battery storage factory outside the United States. Built close to Gigafactory Shanghai, the Shanghai Megafactory is expected to supply Megapack batteries to both China and foreign markets.
The Megapack represents a huge portion of Tesla Energy’s deployments. With 3.9 MWh of energy, Tesla notes that each Megapack is enough to power 3,600 homes for an hour. The Shanghai Megafactory has a capacity to produce 10,000 Megapacks per year to start.
Mike Snyder, vice president of Tesla, shared his optimism about the Shanghai Megafactory. “Megafactory gives us the ability to scale production and efficiency. We can lower logistics costs as well as product costs, and grow the business to new markets,” he stated.
Australia Battery Projects
As noted in a report from Renew Economy, the first Megapack shipments from the Shanghai Megafactory will be installed in the second stage of the Western Downs battery project, which is being built by Neoen. The Western Downs battery project involves a 460 MWp solar farm coupled with a 540 MW/1,080 MWh big battery system.
Tesla has also been listed as the battery supplier for the upcoming Calala battery in Tamworth, New South Wales, which will involve 138 Megapack units. The Megapacks for the Calala battery will likely be imported from the Shanghai Megafactory as well.
Data from Rosetta Analytics suggests that Tesla is currently the dominant player in Australia’s energy storage segment, with the company holding over 30% of the market. Tesla has become a notable presence in Australia’s energy sector for years, especially following the company’s buildout of the Hornsdale “big battery,” which was initially comprised of Tesla Powerpacks, in 2017.
News
Starlink gets green light to launch internet services in Vietnam
Vietnam has given Starlink the green light. With mobile & aviation plans in the mix, SpaceX continues its push into Asia.

Starlink received the green light to launch its internet services in Vietnam.
The Vietnamese government noted SpaceX’s permission to launch Starlink services in the country is on a trial basis. Starlink’s trial period will last until the end of 2030. SpaceX has a subscriber limit of 600,000 within the trial period.
SpaceX can provide Starlink’s fixed and mobile internet service plans throughout Vietnam. It may also offer Starlink Aviation service plans.
According to Reuters, the Vietnamese government noted that there is no limit to foreign ownership of a service. It is uncertain if SpaceX has applied for a license to launch Starlink services in Vietnam.
Vietnam’s decision to permit Starlink services in the country differs from Italy’s decision to pause discussions regarding SpaceX’s internet service. According to Italy’s Defense Minister Guido Crosetto, discussions of a Starlink deal with SpaceX have “come to a standstill. Crosetto cites the controversy surrounding Elon Musk as the reason for the pause on a Starlink deal. Italy was discussing a potential $1.6 billion, 5-year Starlink contract with SpaceX.
SpaceX is also trying to launch Starlink in India. The aerospace company has already signed deals with two of India’s top telecom companies for Starlink services. However, Starlink is still waiting for regulatory approval.
While waiting for regulatory approvals and license processing, SpaceX continues to improve its Starlink services. Recently, news broke that the Elon Musk-led company has plans to launch a new Starlink dish with gigabit speeds.
Elon Musk
SpaceX’s Starlink dish with Gigabit Speeds leaves EU scrambling to catch up
SpaceX is preparing to launch a gigabit Starlink dish. Meanwhile, Europe is still searching for a Starlink alternative.

SpaceX is preparing to release a Starlink dish with gigabit speeds, likely leaving the European Union scrambling to catch up.
During a webinar for Starlink resellers, SpaceX mentioned the development of a new Starlink dish that would offer customers gigabit internet speeds. The new Starlink dish is expected to boost current download speeds of around 200 Mbps.
“Next generation, we’ll have smaller beams, more capacity per beam, lower latency,” noted SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell in 2024. She teased that Starlink speeds would reach as high as 2 gigabits with the next-generation dish.
EU plays catch up with SpaceX’s Starlink
While SpaceX prepares to provide customers with gigabit speeds, the European Union is still trying to catch up to Starlink’s current internet services.
The Foreign Minister of Poland, Radoslaw Sikorski, accused Elon Musk of threatening to cut off Ukraine’s access to Starlink. The Polish Minister’s accusation came after Musk pointed out that Ukraine’s front line would collapse without Starlink.
Sikorski interpreted Musk’s words as a threat. Musk later issued a statement saying he would “never” cut Starlink services to Ukraine.
Despite Musk’s statement, the EU is considering alternatives to SpaceX’s Starlink. It will be difficult, given that the EU currently has no companies that can match SpaceX’s Starlink constellation.
The closest company in Europe to SpaceX’s Starlink is Eutelsat’s OneWeb constellation, which has around 650 satellites in lower earth orbit. In comparison, SpaceX reported having approximately 6,750 satellites in the Starlink constellation as of February 2025.
Even if Europe managed to match SpaceX’s current Starlink constellation, having Ukraine switch from one service to another would be complicated. Multiple countries are paying for Ukraine’s Starlink services, including the United States and Poland. On top of that, each country isn’t paying the same amount–some seem to be paying more than others.
In general, it doesn’t seem like Elon Musk can cut Ukraine’s access to Starlink on a whim.
Starlink Gigabit Dish Pending
SpaceX has a few boxes to check before releasing the Starlink gigabit dish. It will need to upgrade its Starlink constellation to harness a broader range of radio spectrum. But first, SpaceX must get clearance from the FCC to implement the upgrades.
PC Mag speculates that SpaceX could launch the Starlink gigabit dish later this year. The new dish’s release will depend on if SpaceX’s Starship can successfully deploy third-generation V3 Starlink satellites.
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