Investor's Corner
Lucid stock gets elevated target boost from CFRA after initial analysis
Lucid Group (NASDAQ: LCID) is already getting a boost in its price target from CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson, who released his initial opinions on the company’s stock last week.
Last week, CFRA’s Garrett Nelson opened coverage on Lucid Group, making it the first firm to begin coverage on the electric automaker’s stock. After opening coverage with a $25 price target, Nelson stated that Lucid had the potential to be one of the EV industry’s most relevant players, especially judging upon the performance and initial reviews of the Air Dream Edition sedan, Lucid’s first vehicle release.
In a note to investors, Nelson wrote “With first-class specs on its forthcoming luxury EV models, strong balance sheet and management team, and brand new factory in Arizona, LCID appears to check all the boxes of an industry newcomer with staying power.” The $25 price target was followed with adjusted EPS targets of ($1.65) for 2021, ($1.10) for 2022, ($0.70) for 2023, and ($0.25) for 2024. Despite the company’s status as a newcomer in the industry, especially as production of its first vehicle has yet to begin at its Casa Grande, Arizona, factory, Lucid has received considerable hype from enthusiasts and analysts. However, there are many challenges ahead, including sparring with notable EV sector leaders like Tesla.
Despite the competitive advantages, including the new factory, white-knuckle performance specifications, and a team of highly experienced individuals, Nelson stated that “investors might encounter some speed bumps, as LCID’s closest competitor (Tesla) has established a formidable competitive moat.” The Air Dream Edition sedan will spar head-to-head with the Tesla Model S Plaid, a reincarnation of the company’s first production vehicle, which could cause some uncertainty regarding the Air’s performance in sales. Car buyers may be prone to buy vehicles from an experienced automaker, despite the positive reviews of the Air.
-->Lucid holds an advantage in EPA range ratings, as the Air has already broken the 500-mile threshold with several of its vehicles, offering more than 100 miles of additional range compared to the Model S Long Range.
Just over a week after CFRA initiated coverage on Lucid Group, Nelson is now revising his price target by boosting it by $10 from $25 to $35 per share.
“We continue to like LCID’s strategy of targeting the luxury market, as the company will likely need to sell far fewer automobiles to achieve various milestones on the path to profitability,” Nelson writes. “With a balance sheet flush with cash following its recent SPAC transaction, brand new factory in Arizona, guidance of CEO and former Tesla Model S engineer Peter Rawlinson, mean reversion potential from where the stock traded as a SPAC, and most importantly, state-of-the-art vehicles which are getting rave reviews, we remain bullish on LCID shares.”
Essentially a reiteration of the initial investor note, Nelson identifies Lucid’s healthy balance sheet due to its financial backers and recent SPAC transaction with Churchill Capital Corp. IV, along with the experience and dedication offered by CEO and CTO Peter Rawlinson, who worked with Tesla during the design and engineering of the Model S.
Disclosure: Joey Klender is not a $LCID Shareholder.
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Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
-->Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
-->It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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