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Nickel expert calls on Musk, Farley, others to demand Nickel sourcing in North America
Surging prices of nickel, a potentially major influence in the future of the global electric vehicle market, have encouraged one mining expert in the field to call on automotive CEOs to demand more attention toward sourcing the metal in North America.
Nickel and its appeal to EVs
Nickel has been a significant talking point of many automotive CEOs for about two years as its wide availability could alleviate battery manufacturing bottlenecks for cells containing either controversial or hard-to-obtain rare earth metals. Tesla CEO Elon Musk first discussed nickel mining during an Earnings Call in mid-2020. Musk pledged a massive contract to any company that could supply nickel to Tesla, as long as it was sourced efficiently and sustainably.
“Well, I’d just like to reemphasize, any mining companies out there, please mine more nickel, OK?” Musk said on the call. “Wherever you are in the world, please mine more nickel, and don’t wait for nickel to go back to some long — some high point that you experienced some five years ago or whatever. Go for efficiency, as environmentally friendly, nickel mining at high volume. Tesla will give you a giant contract for a long period of time if you mine nickel efficiently and in an environmentally sensitive way. So hopefully, this message goes out to all mining companies.”
Tesla CEO Elon Musk called on companies to mine more nickel, promising a “massive contract” during the Q2 2020 Earnings Call.
Musk eventually landed a nickel supply deal with Minnesota-based Talon Metals in January. It was the first major nickel supply deal Tesla landed and could be a monumental development in the production of EV battery cells.
Nickel increases energy density and therefore driving range, which is an essential metric for EV owners. Despite Elon Musk’s recent claim that too much EV range is counterproductive because it takes away from the performance, a small poll I ran on Twitter seemed to show that people were more concerned about range than performance. Two-thirds of respondents claimed they would sacrifice performance for more range. Despite Tesla’s high-range cars, which are only eclipsed by the Lucid Air’s premier Dream Edition trim, cold weather climates have shown to be one of EV range’s biggest foes, consistently trimming range estimations due to inefficient battery heating.
Soaring prices: $30k to $100k in the blink of an eye
Following a short squeeze on Nickel on the London Metals Exchange, the cost of a metric ton of the metal surged $70,000. Trent Mell, critical mineral expert and CEO of Electra Battery Materials, spoke to Teslarati last week regarding the price surges, which have him ready to make a proposal to automotive CEOs. “I would encourage the big names: Musk, Farley, Barra, to start demanding Nickel sourcing in North America,” Mell said.
According to Statista, Canada is the sixth-biggest producer of nickel globally, with 130,000 metric tons of the element produced in 2021. The United States ranked tenth on the list, with 18,000 metric tons. Mell believes, while North America has a low contribution rate to the global primary nickel supply, there is potential for extreme growth.
“North America currently only contributes around 4% of global primary nickel,” Mell said. “There is no immediate North American solution to growing nickel demand, but we anticipate that the construction of processing capacity on the continent will act as a catalyst to bring more primary nickel, in the form of mining operations, online in coming years so that North America can become increasingly self-reliant on domestically sourced raw materials. There are ample, good-quality nickel projects in North America.”
Nickel is highly-available in Russia, which has had numerous sanctions set by the United States and other governments due to the invasion of Ukraine. According to Mell, nickel in Russia, the third-most available region in the world, is Class 1, which means it is of the highest quality, which is eventually used in EV batteries, among other products. Mell said Nornickel, the country’s leading miner of the metal, exports 96 percent of its product, with 45 percent of that going to Europe.
(Credit: Teslarati) Data provided by Statista
Nickel is going to be a major factor in EV batteries in the coming years. However, automakers have had to adopt different strategies to keep their vehicles flowing off production lines and into customers’ garages. For standard range vehicles, many companies have adopted lithium-iron-phosphate, or LFP, batteries, which are available in wide supply in other markets and offer less range but more affordability. Tesla started transitioning some U.S. Standard Range Model 3 vehicles to LFP cells late last year, as it would reduce wait times. Eventually, it revealed all Standard Range vehicles would equip the LFP chemistry.
However, Mell does not believe LFP is a solution in the long term.
“We used to refer to LFP cells as ‘golf cart batteries,’” he said. Referring to the cell as a “half-hearted solution,” Mell understands the use of LFP for entry-level vehicles but knows nickel is the real solution, which led him to consider proposing industry-leading CEOs to push President Joe Biden to discuss more options in either domestic or, at least, North American mining projects.
Nickel is also easier to recycle and can be easily refined into new cells. Swedish company Northvolt successfully built a cell from recycled nickel last year.
What can consumers expect from the Nickel price hikes?
Mell is adamant that the current levels of nickel on the LME are not sustainable. “I would encourage consumers to wait about six months. Then we’ll see prices drop back to normal levels,” he said. However, as some analysts pointed out, the spikes in price could add between $750 and $1,000 per vehicle in the short term.
Musk said earlier this week that “significant inflationary pressure” was affecting both Tesla and SpaceX, which hinted toward price increases on the company’s vehicles. Last night, Tesla applied price increases to all four of its all-electric vehicles, with the Model X Plaid variant receiving the most substantial surge: $12,500.
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Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
