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SpaceX had a big year: 2016 year in review

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On December 21, 2016, SpaceX celebrated the one-year anniversary of Falcon 9’s first ever successful stage one landing, leaving their mark on history with the first rocket to ever do so after delivering a payload into orbit. The mission delivered 11 ORBCOMM satellites into low-Earth orbit to complete a 17-satellite constellation network.

Several videos were published with footage of the event last year, but National Geographic gave us a behind-the-scenes look at Elon Musk’s emotional ride while it was happening as an anniversary treat.

The first landing anniversary wasn’t the only thing to come out of 2016, however, and what a year it was!

MORE HISTORIC SPACEX LANDINGS

On April 8, 2016, SpaceX made history again, that time by landing Falcon 9’s first stage booster onto the “Of Course I Still Love You” autonomous droneship in the Atlantic Ocean off the Florida coast. The mission’s payload was a Dragon capsule cargo shipment to the International Space Station (“ISS”) named CRS-8, itself containing an important space technology demonstration for expandable habitats. The Bigelow Expandable Activity Module (“BEAM”) carried in the Dragon capsule was later successfully docked to the ISS and inflated as planned.

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On May 5, 2016, SpaceX landed yet another first stage booster on drone ship “Of Course I Still Love You”, but the destination of its payload was geostationary transfer orbit (“GTO”), about 36,000 kilometers above the Earth vs. the 160 to 2000 kilometer height of low-Earth orbit previously achieved before a landing. The higher GTO orbit brought the first stage of Falcon 9 to a much faster speed and higher reentry heating than the previous missions, making the successful landing yet another one for the history books. Its payload was the JCSAT-14 commercial communications satellite.

Falcon 9 on the droneship after launching JCSAT-14 | Credit: SpaceX

Falcon 9 on the droneship after launching JCSAT-14 | Credit: SpaceX

Another successful GTO mission with a droneship landing was completed on May 27, 2016, and its THAICOM-8 payload was then delivered to a supersynchronous transfer orbit of 91,000 kilometers high. The third time broke the charm, however, and on June 15, 2016, after a successful insertion of Eutelsat 117 West B and ABS-2A satellites into GTO, the Falcon 9 first stage was lost due to early engine shutdown from lack of fuel.

Undeterred, SpaceX successfully landed one more booster on August 16, 2016 during its JCSAT-16 mission to GTO. “Of Course I Still Love You” was the droneship used once again.

A FEW SETBACKS FOR SPACEX

September 1, 2016 is a day that will potentially live in both conspiratorial and procedural dispute infamy due to SpaceX’s launch pad anomaly during its fueling process. Whether the description of choice of the event is “fast fire”, “explosion”, or “fireball”, the result was the same: a complete loss of the Falcon 9 rocket, its payload, and the ability to use Space Launch Complex 40 in the near future.

The AMOS-6 satellite aboard the rocket was owned by Israel-based Spacecom Ltd. and had been part of a $95 million dollar leasing deal between Facebook and Eutelsat to provide internet access to the non-connected parts of the world.

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Per SpaceX’s last update, the investigation and FAA report on the anomaly are still pending and have focused on a breach in the loading of the cryogenic helium system of the 2nd stage liquid oxygen (“LOX”) tank.

Falcon 9 isn’t expected to return to flight until January 2017 now that the launch with the Iridium-1 satellite payload was delayed from the tentative December 16th date. The FAA report must be completed prior to further launch approvals. The chain reaction of delayed launches has only cost the loss of one SpaceX customer to another launch provider thus far.

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Due to extensive damage to Space Launch Complex 40 from the anomaly, future launches from the east coast will take place from historic Apollo-era Launch Complex 39A. SpaceX has been renovating the pad for Falcon Heavy launches. Also resulting from the anomaly was a delay in the first Falcon Heavy launch to early 2017.

SPACEX PUSHES ONWARD

Throughout 2016, SpaceX continued to work on its Crew Dragon capsule as part of its competition with Boeing to provide human flight capabilities from American soil via NASA’s Commercial Crew Program. The tentative test launch date for the capsule was set for late 2017, but unfortunately, it was pushed back into May of 2018. Earlier in the year, Boeing also delayed its launch date to August 2018.

Crew Dragon during launch abort test | Credit: SpaceX

Crew Dragon during launch abort test | Credit: SpaceX

ELON MUSK REVEALS SPACEX’S MARS PLAN

Finally, at the end of September, Elon announced SpaceX’s plan to put a million people on Mars by the 2060s via its Interplanetary Transport System, also affectionately named BFR (“Big F*ing Rocket”).

A video was released prior to the September 27th, 2016 International Astronautical Conference announcement in Guadalajara, Mexico illustrating the full system concept. The animation was based on the actual CAD renderings in development, per Elon’s talk.

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SpaceX ITS Stage 1 landing graphic | Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX ITS Stage 1 landing graphic | Credit: SpaceX

Plenty of goodies were revealed about SpaceX’s plans including the passenger habitat, entertainment intentions for travelers, and technical specifications surrounding the system’s size, engines, and fuel systems. While the presentation itself was exciting, many questions were still left unanswered such as more specifics on radiation dangers and the long-term effects of microgravity.

SUMMARY

Overall, 2016 brought a rollercoaster of successes and setbacks for SpaceX, but the business of rocket launching wasn’t expected to be an easy one. The phrase, “Rockets are hard” isn’t a simple excuse to explain away failures, but rather an accepted cost of being in the field.

Throughout the year, SpaceX has managed to maintain public and government faith in its mission to advance human space exploration despite any setbacks. In July, NASA ordered a second commercial crew mission from the company, and then they followed up in November with a contract to launch an Earth surface-water-analyzing satellite in 2021.

SpaceX also received a number of recognitions for its work environment and achievements, including making Glassdoor’s Top 50 Places to Work and being awarded the 2016 World Technology Award for space.

Oh, and if it seems all that isn’t enough for SpaceX to have on its plate, in November the company filed a request with the FCC to launch over 4,000 communication satellites as part of their goal of building a hi-speed satellite internet constellation.

There’s a lot to look forward to in 2017 and beyond. Onwards!

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Accidental computer geek, fascinated by most history and the multiplanetary future on its way. Quite keen on the democratization of space. | It's pronounced day-sha, but I answer to almost any variation thereof.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.1 first impressions: Robotaxi-like features arrive

Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.1 is here, and we got to experience it for ourselves.

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Tesla rolled out its Full Self-Driving v14.1 yesterday, its first public launch of its most robust and accurate FSD iteration yet. Luckily, I was able to get my hands on it through the Early Access Program.

The major changes in FSD v14.1 were revealed in the release notes, which outline several notable improvements in areas such as driving styles, parking, and overall navigation. Here’s what Tesla outlined fully in its release notes:

  • Added Arrival Options for you to select where FSD should park: in a Parking Lot, on the Street, in a Driveway, in a Parking Garage, or at the Curbside.
  • Added handling to pull over or yield for emergency vehicles (e.g. police cars, fire trucks, ambulances).
  • Added navigation and routing into the vision-based neural network for real-time handling of blocked roads and detours.
  • Added additional Speed Profile to further customize driving style preference.
  • Improved handling for static and dynamic gates.
  • Improved offsetting for road debris (e.g. tires, tree branches, boxes).
  • Improve handling of several scenarios including: unprotected turns, lane changes, vehicle cut-ins, and school busses.
  • Improved FSD’s ability to manage system faults and recover smoothly from degraded operation for enhanced reliability.
  • Added alerting for residue build-up on interior windshield that may impact front camera visibility. If affected, visit Service for cleaning!

I wanted to try it for myself. My big must-dos were my complaints with v13.2.9, which included parking when arriving at a destination, Navigation when leaving a destination, and definitely a general improvement in the car traveling at an acceptable rate of speed, even when using the “Hurry” driving style.

Here’s what I noticed with the new Full Self-Driving v14.1:

Speed Profiles are More Realistic

I am driving on “Hurry” about 95% of the time when utilizing Full Self-Driving. In past versions, most notably v13.2.9, my Tesla would slowly reach the speed limit, and it would tend to hang out at about 1-2 MPH either above or below it.

My first observation with v14.1 was the vehicle’s tendency to get right up to speed and, since I was still on Hurry, drive slightly above the speed limit. It never got out of line; it traveled at speeds I would typically drive at manually.

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I think this is a big improvement on its own, because I felt that I was pressing the accelerator too frequently in past FSD versions. Oftentimes, it just wasn’t going fast enough to justify the “Hurry” label; it felt more conservative and more like a student driver than anything.

Check it out:

This was among my favorite improvements, and it was the first thing I noticed as the car navigated me to the Supercharger, where my next positive is.

Navigating into parking lots, self-parking at Supercharger

One of the changes noted in the Release Notes was the addition of Arrival Options, which allows the car to select the appropriate parking situation. Since I was going to charge, the car had already chosen “Charger” as the parking option.

Pulling into a gas station or convenience store, especially during work days, can be stressful, as they are usually congested and full of foot and vehicle traffic. In past FSD versions, I have noticed the car being slightly “jumpy” and even hesitant to proceed through the lot.

Driving through parking lots was a noticeable improvement. It seems as if the car is much more confident in making its way through, while still being aware and cautious enough to safely navigate to the Supercharger.

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It then backed straight into a Supercharger stall, which was recently repaired and is once again active. I was actually upset it chose this specific stall because it had been inactive for a while. However, Tesla got this stall back up and running, the car chose it, and backed into the spot flawlessly:

This was super cool to experience, and I think it is a testament to how hard the Tesla AI team has worked. CEO Elon Musk recently stated that FSD would enable automatic parking at Superchargers, which was really awesome to experience firsthand.

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I decided to leave the Supercharger and go to an auto parts store to pick up some interior cleaner and some microfiber towels. I love keeping my Tesla clean!

I also thought it would be a great opportunity to see how it would react to another parking lot, how it would navigate it, and let it choose a parking spot. It did it all flawlessly:

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I had zero complaints about everything here. All of it was done really well.

Making a choice after being caught in the middle of an intersection

I arrived at a tight intersection in Dallastown, PA, and what my car did next has catalyzed quite a conversation on X.

It proceeded out into the middle of the intersection as the light was green. It had to yield to oncoming traffic, and while waiting, the light turned yellow, then red.

Most people, including myself, would have turned right and proceeded through the intersection since the car was already past the line. However, FSD chose to back up and wait for the next light cycle, which I felt was also a more than acceptable option:

There are some conflicting perspectives on what it chose to do here. Some said they would have proceeded and would want FSD to also proceed. I can agree with that perspective, but I also think it is not the worst thing in the world to back up. In Pennsylvania, I couldn’t find the exact law that says what is right or wrong. Instead, I did see that a left turn on red is only feasible when you’re going from a One-Way street to another One-Way.

I’m not totally sure what is “correct” here, but I think either option is fine. I have personally done both, and I’ve seen other drivers do both. I was more than fine with the car doing this, and I was honestly impressed that it did.

Navigated a busy grocery store lot, found suitable parking

This is not the busiest my local grocery store gets, but it was still congested enough for me to be impressed.

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FSD decided to do one loop in the parking lot before it found a spot that it felt was good enough for me. I was perfectly fine with where it chose to park, and I thought it did a really great job. I was impressed with how stress-free I felt, as I have noted in the past that parking lots are definitely an area where Tesla needs to improve.

I was happy with its performance:

Strange right turn signal as if it saw an emergency vehicle

This was the first bug I noticed with FSD v14.1. While traveling on a local road, it put the right turn signal on and approached the curb as if it was pulling over for an emergency vehicle or as if it was going to park on the street.

It then realized its mistake and proceeded:

I’m not super sure what caused this, but I was a tad bit confused. There were no police cars, ambulances, or anyone with flashing lights to my rear. There was a dump truck on the other side of the road, and I almost felt like the way it navigated “around” that was probably what triggered it.

Navigation is still making strange decisions

I’ve written about navigation and my discontent with some of its decisions. It seems v14.1 didn’t resolve much of anything with navigation, and it did a couple of things wrong.

The first was that it tried to take the illogical and pointless path out of the Supercharger. I wrote about this a few days ago, as FSD tried to take my car the wrong way.

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It did it again, but I overrode the decision, and it was all okay:

This is a minor issue, but it is still pretty frustrating. Hopefully, the navigation will learn after performing this adjustment after enough times.

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The next navigation issue was more frustrating than the Supercharger one, especially considering it completely ignored the route. The navigation had the vehicle very clearly heading straight, but out of nowhere, the right turn signal went on. I overrode it, but the car still turned right, ignoring the navigation completely:

I ended up taking over here and driving until I could get to a stop sign.

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Final Thoughts

I am really impressed with all of the changes Tesla made with FSD v14.1, and while there were a handful of bugs, things were tremendously better than v13.2.9.

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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang regrets not investing more in Elon Musk’s xAI

The CEO stated that Nvidia is already an investor in xAI, but he wished he had given the artificial intelligence startup more money.

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Credit: Elon Musk/X

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang revealed that one of his investment regrets is not putting more money into Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup, xAI. 

Speaking in a CNBC interview, Huang said Nvidia is already an investor in xAI but wished he had given the artificial intelligence startup more money. This was due to Musk’s record of building transformative companies such as Tesla and SpaceX.

A new wave of transformative AI firms

Huang said he’s very excited about xAI’s latest financing round. He described Musk’s company as part of a powerful new generation of AI developers, alongside OpenAI and Anthropic. that are reshaping the computing landscape.

“I’m super excited about the financing opportunity they’re doing. The only regret I have about xAI, we’re an investor already, is that I didn’t give him more money. You know almost everything that Elon’s pat of, you really want to be part of as well,” the Nvidia CEO stated.

The CEO also clarified Nvidia’s investment in xAI, revealing that Elon Musk had offered the investment opportunity to the chipmaker. “He (Musk) gave us the opportunity to invest in xAI. I’m just delighted by that,” Huang stated.

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AI investment boom

Huang contrasted today’s AI-driven economy with the early days of the internet. “Back then, all the internet companies combined were maybe $30 or $40 billion in size,” he said. “If you look at the hyperscalers now, that’s about $2.5 trillion of business already operating today.”

He also stated that the ongoing shift from CPU-based computing to GPU-powered generative AI represents a “multi-trillion-dollar buildout” that Nvidia is looking to support. Huang added that every Nvidia engineer now works with AI coding assistants such as Cursor, which he called his “favorite enterprise AI service,” and it has led to a major productivity boost across the company.

Watch Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s CNBC interview in the video below.

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Investor's Corner

Stifel raises Tesla price target by 9.8% over FSD, Robotaxi advancements

Stifel also maintained a “Buy” rating for the electric vehicle maker.

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Credit: Tesla China

Investment firm Stifel has raised its price target for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares to $483 from $440 over increased confidence in the company’s self-driving and Robotaxi programs. The new price target suggests an 11.5% upside from Tesla’s closing price on Tuesday.

Stifel also maintained a “Buy” rating despite acknowledging that Tesla’s timeline for fully unsupervised driving may be ambitious.

Building confidence

In a note to clients, Stifel stated that it believes “Tesla is making progress with modest advancements in its Robotaxi network and FSD,” as noted in a report from Investing.com. The firm expects unsupervised FSD to become available for personal use in the U.S. by the end of 2025, with a wider ride-hailing rollout potentially covering half of the U.S. population by year-end.

Stifel also noted that Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet could expand from “tiny to gigantic” within a short time frame, possibly making a material financial impact to the company by late 2026. The firm views Tesla’s vision-based approach to autonomy as central to this long-term growth, suggesting that continued advancements could unlock new revenue streams across both consumer and mobility sectors.

https://twitter.com/AIStockSavvy/status/1975893527344345556

Tesla’s FSD goals still ambitious

While Stifel’s tone remains optimistic, the firm’s analysts acknowledged that Tesla’s aggressive autonomy timeline may face execution challenges. The note described the 2025 unsupervised FSD target as “a stretch,” though still achievable in the medium term.

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“We believe Tesla is making progress with modest advancements in its Robotaxi network and FSD. The company has high expectations for its camera-based approach including; 1) Unsupervised FSD to be available for personal use in the United States by year-end 2025, which appears to be a stretch but seems more likely in the medium term; 2) that it will ‘probably have ride hailing in probably half of the populations of the U.S. by the end of the year’,” the firm noted.

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