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SpaceX, Blue Origin, and ULA make major progress in commercial megarocket space race
A new generation of space race is currently underway, but this time it’s not a race to determine which country will reach orbit first, but rather which spaceflight company will successfully reach orbit first with the world’s second generation of super-heavy launch vehicles (SHLVs).
SpaceX, United Launch Alliance (ULA), Blue Origin, and NASA all have plans to build and operate their own SHLV rockets. All entities are deep into design and development and are, for the most part, at various stages of assembly and integration of their first flight hardware, offering an excellent opportunity to compare and contrast the differing approaches at work.
While NASA and ULA are developing rockets featuring an expendable single core supported by solid rocket boosters, SpaceX and Blue Origin have developed reusable designs that will utilize an enormous single core booster powered by multiple engines.
SpaceX: Starship/Super Heavy
Currently the world’s only builder and operator of a super-heavy launch vehicle (Falcon Heavy), SpaceX’s next-generation rocket is undoubtedly the most well known.
The design of SpaceX’s next-generation Starship & Super Heavy rocket is by far the most ambitious. According to company CEO Elon Musk, the new rocket will be comprised of a massive booster deemed “Super Heavy”, featuring as many as 35 Raptor engines capable of producing a total of more than 70,000 kN (15.7M lbf) of thrust at liftoff. The rocket’s upper stage is known as Starship and will be a fully-reusable crew and cargo transport vehicle powered by up to 6 Raptors – 3 sea level-optimized engines and 3 vacuum-optimized engines.
Per a September 2018 design update, Starship and Super Heavy will stand 118 meters (387ft) tall and will be able to launch a minimum of 100 metric tons (220,000 lb) to Low Earth Orbit in a fully reusable configuration, in which both the booster and ship return to Earth for recovery and reuse. On its own, Starship will stand at least 55 meters tall and feature a massive payload bay (or crew section) with a usable volume of no less than 1000 cubic meters (~35,000 ft3). The now-outdated 2018 design also featured almost 90 cubic meters of unpressurized cargo space, a bet less than nine times as much SpaceX’s operational Cargo Dragon spacecraft.
Although CEO Elon Musk has stated that the design of Starship’s legs and control surfaces has since changed, including the addition of legs to Super Heavy boosters, the upper stage’s 2018 design featured two actuating canards and fins/legs, two of which actuate a bit like flapping wings.
Currently, SpaceX is actively building two orbital Starship prototypes at two separate facilities in Cocoa Beach, Florida and Boca Chica, Texas, as well as an unusual low-fidelity prototype known as Starhopper. Outfitted with a lone Raptor engine (SN06), Starhopper very recently completed a successful 20-meter hop, also the vehicle’s first untethered test flight.
According to Musk, Starhopper is being prepared for a second untethered flight as early as August 16th, in which the rocket will reach a maximum altitude of up to 200 meters (650 ft) and perform a small divert, landing on an adjacent landing pad. Musk also has plans to present a major update on the status of Starship during an official event, scheduled to occur on August 24th in Boca Chica, TX. Aside from hundreds of disconnected snippets in the form of Musk’s prolific tweets, this will mark the first official presentation on Starship since SpaceX made the radical leap from carbon fiber to stainless steel.
SpaceX has taken a truly unprecedented approach to Starship and Super Heavy production and is currently assembling two full-scale Starship prototypes (Mk1 and Mk2) outside with little to no cover, although some spartan covered production facilities are simultaneously being built.
Blue Origin: BE-4 for all
On the near-opposite side of the spectrum, Blue Origin and ULA have formed a partnership in the sense that both companies will ultimately use the same Blue Origin-built engines to power the boosters of their own next-generation launch vehicles. ULA has decided to acquire Blue-built BE-4 engines for its Vulcan Heavy rocket, motivated primarily by the fact that the company will no longer be able to legally import the Russian-built RD-180 used on Atlas V after 2022 as a result of US sanctions.
First and foremost, though, Blue Origin is developing BE-4 as the primary propulsion of the company’s own two-stage super heavy-lift rocket, known as New Glenn. New Glenn’s first stage will be powered by 7 of the extremely powerful oxygens, utilizing liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquid oxygen to produce at least 2,450 kN (550,000 lbf) of thrust. Altogether, New Glenn will lift off with a maximum thrust of 17,100 kN (3.85m lbf) of thrust at sea level.
Unintuitively, New Glenn will actually produce a full 33% less thrust than SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy (~23,000 kN or 5.1M lbf) at liftoff but will likely be able to crush Falcon Heavy’s performance to higher orbits while still in a reusable configuration. This is thanks in large part to the greater efficiency of a single-core rocket, as well as the greater efficiency of its methane-powered BE-4 boost-stage engines and hydrogen-powered BE-3U upper stage engines. According to Blue, New Glenn will be able to launch 45,000 kg to LEO and 13,000 kg to GTO while still recovering the booster, compared to Falcon Heavy’s 8,000-10,000 kg GTO performance.
New Glenn will stand 95 meters (313 ft) tall and feature the largest payload fairing in operation, measuring 7m (23 ft) wide and in diameter. New Glenn’s booster will follow in the footsteps of Blue Origin’s relatively tiny New Shepard and will rely on actuating fins for in-atmosphere maneuvering, as well as two fixed wing-like strakes that will partially function as wings during recovery. New Glenn will also feature six retractable landing legs and land on a modified ship, much like SpaceX’s Falcon family.
While Blue Origin has scarcely published a word or photo on New Glenn’s production progress since its September 2016 reveal, the company does provide small updates on the status of its BE-4 engine every few months, including a photo of a recent full-power engine test completed on August 2nd at Blue’s Van Horn, Texas facilities.
ULA: Vulcan Heavy
ULA’s next-generation Vulcan Heavy rocket will feature two such BE-4 engines but will be fully expendable for at least 4-6 years after its nominal 2021 launch debut. ULA will continue to lean on their well-worn preference for supplementing liquid propulsion with 2-6 strap-on solid rocket boosters (SRBs), adding as much as ~12,000 kN (2.7M lbf) to booster’s two BE-4s, themselves producing 4,800 kN (1.1M lbf) of thrust
In its largest configuration, Vulcan Heavy will stand 69.2 m (227 ft) tall – just a tad shorter than Falcon 9 – and be capable of launch up to 15 tons (~33,000 lb) to GTO and 30.3 tons (67,000 lb) to LEO.
ULA CEO Tory Bruno recently took to Twitter to provide a small Vulcan development update, revealing that the first Vulcan booster was recently completed at the company’s Decatur, Alabama factory. This particularly booster is a structural test article (STA) and will never fly, but it’s still a huge milestone for ULA’s next-generation rocket.
The photos give a great idea of scale as the Vulcan booster is pictured alongside one of the company’s significantly smaller Atlas V booster, 3.8m compared to Vulcan’s 5.4m diameter.
Ultimately, this modern space race will hopefully benefit the spaceflight industry as a whole, particularly with respect to the introduction of New Glenn, hopefully giving SpaceX’s reusable Falcon 9 and Heavy rockets some real technological competition. ULA’s Vulcan is aiming for a H1 2021 debut, followed by New Glenn in late-2021 or 2022.
SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy is already operational and just completed its third launch in June 2019, with several more launch contracts on the books from late-2020 onwards. Its Starship/Super Heavy rocket is in a bit of a chaotic state at the moment, but CEO Elon Musk believes an orbital launch attempt could come as early as early-2020. Meanwhile, NASA is very slowly making its way to the launch debut of its Space Launch System (SLS) rocket, likely to slip into 2022.
With any luck, the early 2020s will be greeted by the operational debuts of two, three, four, or even more extremely capable rockets offering largely unprecedented launch costs. For now, we wait…
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Elon Musk
Tesla shows what Roadster drivers will see on screen before thruster activation
Tesla’s Roadster video reveals a fighter jet inspired cockpit with a 5,500 PSI thruster gauge.
Tesla has given future owners their clearest look yet at the cockpit of its next generation Roadster. In a 34 second video posted to X on Friday afternoon, the company walked through the car’s touchscreen with a caption: “Inspired by fighter jet cockpits, Roadster’s interface was designed around the pilot.”
The clip opens on a black screen with red graphics and a 3D wireframe of the car, which sits beside the Roadster’s squared off yoke. Tapping parts of the model brings up controls for the rear wing, including low drag and high downforce positions, along with a charging page with a charge limit bar and a small music player. A row of tabs along the bottom reads Home, Vehicle, Listen, Climate and Navigate.
Most of the video is spent in Track Mode. The dashboard shows a live circuit map, a list of session lap times, brake and motor temperatures, and pressure and temperature readouts for each tire. A setup page lets the driver pick Auto, Low Drag, High Downforce or Custom aero modes, adjust aero balance and brake balance, and switch stability and traction control off. Along the bottom, a status bar reads “Thruster · 5,500 PSI” next to a “Boost Ready” indicator.
That gauge ties the software to the hardware Tesla showed off near Waco, Texas on October 15. The Thrust and Rocket versions use cold gas thrusters fed by carbon overwrapped pressure vessels, and Tesla lists 0 to 60 mph times of under 0.9 seconds and under 0.59 seconds for them, as Teslarati detailed in its breakdown of the three Roadster configurations. The base Performance car relies on a fan and ground sealing system for grip, and the aero settings on screen match the active wings and suction setup covered in our look at how the Roadster generates downforce.
The Roadster layout is a departure from the rest of Tesla’s lineup. Instead of a map centered screen, the Roadster puts the car itself at the center of the home page, and Tesla’s Roadster page lists two smaller forward displays alongside the main touchscreen. Tesla has not said whether any of the Track Mode telemetry will make its way to the Model 3 Performance or other vehicles.
The interface could still change before deliveries. Elon Musk said at the event that Roadster production will begin in 2028, and Tesla says the flagship Rocket version is not approved for public road use. Reservations are open with a $50,000 payment, while Thrust is listed as a limited release and Rocket is invite only.
Those who want to see the car in person will get their first chance this weekend. The Roadster goes on display in the lobby of the Petersen Automotive Museum in Los Angeles from October 24 to 27, according to Sawyer Merritt, the first time the public will be able to view it up close.
Elon Musk
Tesla reveals Optimus Academy, where robots teach themselves
Tesla has begun building production quality Optimus robots in Fremont and revealed its training plan.
Tesla has started building Optimus on the high volume line it set up inside its Fremont factory, and the company says the robots coming off it are the first that meet the bar for a real product. “The bots coming off this line are the first production-quality bots that we have manufactured,” Tesla wrote in its third quarter shareholder letter, adding that it has “proven that the current manufacturing process for Optimus is suitable for a commercial product.”
The line sits in space that built the Model S and Model X until this spring. Tesla cleared the old vehicle line in 46 days, as Teslarati reported in July, to make room for robot production sized for one million units a year. On Wednesday’s earnings call, Elon Musk said most of the equipment for that capacity is already in Fremont, with output set to climb toward roughly 20,000 robots a week as the line ramps.
Musk described the ramp as a classic S curve. “The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope,” he said. The team is now refining the robot’s AI, electromechanical design, reliability and service life, and Musk expects that work to be finished by the end of next year, when Tesla plans to start delivering Optimus to outside companies for dangerous, repetitive and around the clock jobs.
The most interesting part of the call was how Tesla plans to teach the robots. Its cars send real driving data back to the AI team from millions of vehicles, but Optimus has no fleet like that yet. “A big difference with Optimus versus the cars is we don’t have this vast fleet of cars from which we can gather training data,” Musk said. Tesla’s answer is an Optimus Academy, where 10,000 to 20,000 robots will practice a wide range of tasks and feed what they learn into the next version of the model. Every unit off the Fremont line becomes a source of that training data.
Smarter hardware is on the way too. Tesla plans to put its AI5 chip into Optimus next year, and Musk said a new Optimus video should arrive within one or two months showing the robot completing tasks driven by AI rather than preprogrammed motions. He took aim at rival humanoid demos that only run scripted routines, saying those would not hold up in the real world.
The supply chain is lining up behind the program. In September, Tesla certified Tuopu, Joyson and Sanhua as mass production partners for Optimus components. A far larger Optimus factory is also rising at Giga Texas, where drone footage from Joe Tegtmeyer showed the steel frame nearing completion, and Musk has pegged that plant’s long term target at 10 million robots a year.
Tesla executives also said Optimus production costs are trending toward the expected manufacturing cost of Cybercab, a sign the robot is being engineered for volume from the start. The hands remain the toughest piece of the design, a point Musk also made at the X Takeover event earlier this month, as Teslarati covered at the time, and that is where much of the current engineering effort is focused.
Elon Musk
The Starship moon landing number NASA and Elon Musk can’t agree on
Musk disputes NASA estimate of 22 Starship launches for Moon landing, predicting 6 to 8.
Elon Musk is disputing a new NASA safety panel estimate of how many Starship launches it will take to put astronauts on the Moon, saying the real number will be less than half the panel’s figure.
On Thursday, NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel held its quarterly public meeting. Panel member Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut, flagged the fueling process for SpaceX’s lunar lander as a major risk for Artemis IV, the mission planned to land a crew on the Moon in 2028. “We need to keep our eyes on numerous required fuelings for the lander,” Precourt said, according to Ars Technica. “I think the last estimate is around 22 flights.”
Ars Technica’s Eric Berger posted the comment on X, and Musk replied. “That’s way too high,” Musk wrote. “Actual number will be more like 6 to 8.”
The disagreement comes down to a basic problem with sending a ship as large as Starship to the Moon. Starship burns nearly all of its propellant just reaching Earth orbit, so it cannot continue on to the Moon without stopping for a refill. SpaceX’s answer is a gas station in space. First, a Starship that works as a storage tank, called a depot, is launched into orbit. Then a series of tanker Starships launch one at a time, dock with the depot and pump their leftover propellant into it. Once the depot is full, the lunar lander version of Starship launches, docks, fills up and heads for the Moon.
Every tanker trip is its own full rocket launch, which is why the count matters. More launches mean more time, more cost and more chances for something to go wrong before astronauts ever leave Earth. Berger estimated that even if SpaceX reaches twice weekly Starship launches by the end of 2027, filling a depot at the panel’s number would still take roughly three months.
How many tankers are needed depends mostly on how much propellant each one can carry to orbit and how much is lost along the way. Starship’s fuel and oxygen are stored at extremely cold temperatures, and some of it slowly boils off while waiting in orbit. More is lost in each transfer. NASA appears to be working from what Starship can lift today, while Musk’s range assumes a more capable rocket.
Musk has pushed back on higher counts before. In 2021, after a government document suggested 16 launches, he called that “extremely unlikely” and said eight tankers would be the most required.
Much of the answer depends on hardware SpaceX has not finished flying. As Teslarati noted earlier this year, the company plans to carry out the refueling process with its upgraded V3 Starship, and Precourt described Artemis IV as carrying “a large number of firsts.” He also praised NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman’s team for working to clear obstacles for both SpaceX and Blue Origin, whose Blue Moon lander does not rely on orbital refueling for its first mission.
Tesla shows what Roadster drivers will see on screen before thruster activation
Tesla reveals Optimus Academy, where robots teach themselves
