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SpaceX’s Crew Dragon preps for debut as race to return astronauts to US craft nears final stages

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After spending two weeks testing in a specialized NASA-run facility, SpaceX’s first flightworthy Crew Dragon spacecraft was shipped from Ohio to Florida, where it will now spend a number of months preparing for its first (uncrewed) launch into Earth orbit.

Known as Demonstration Mission 1 (DM-1), this critical milestone must be passed before the capsule will be certified to carry NASA astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS) sometime in 2019. While DM-1 will not sport a human crew, the spacecraft is nevertheless expected to demonstrate all life and mission-critical components, ranging from Crew Dragon’s complex array of avionics and ground/orbital communications equipment to craft’s ability to safely return passengers to Earth with a soft ocean landing.

SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft has been in the serious hardware development phase for approximately five years, although the concept itself dates back about as early as its Cargo Dragon predecessor – 2005 to 2006, publicly. Over the course of roughly two weeks of testing at NASA’s Plum Brook Station, Crew Dragon was likely subjected to a suite of environmental conditions the spacecraft will need to routinely survive to make it through initial launch and successfully operate under the rigors of microgravity and thermal vacuum conditions.

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Given the DM-1 capsule and trunk’s fairly quick jaunt at the huge Plum Brook vacuum chamber and equally quick arrival in Florida, those test results were likely quite favorable. Still, a major amount of work lies ahead before the first full Crew Dragon is ready for its launch atop Falcon 9. Most significantly, the craft’s trunk did not follow its fellow capsule to Florida, but rather returned to SpaceX’s Hawthorne, CA factory to be outfitted with critical flight hardware, particularly radiators and solar arrays. Once that outfit is complete, the module will also be shipped to Florida before being integrated with the DM-1 Crew Dragon capsule.

Of note, the DM-1 capsule has been constructed from the start to support a plan to use the vehicle in an in-flight abort test meant to ensure that the craft can wrest its passengers from harm’s way even at the most intense point of launch, where aerodynamic pressures are at their peak. In order to properly support both the DM-1 orbital mission and the in-flight abort test to follow, the capsule has been outfitted with a fair amount (hundreds of pounds) of hardware that will be unique to the pathfinder spacecraft. This understandably adds its own complexity to the already intense program’s first orbital mission, although it will hopefully not translate into additional delays.

SpaceX competitor’s crewed spacecraft and rocket take shape

It’s worth noting that SpaceX is effectively operating at a distinct – albeit partially self-wrought – financial handicap when compared with Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft program, one of two vehicles funded by NASA to accomplish the same task of safely and reliably transporting astronauts to and from the ISS.

“NASA awarded firm-fixed-price contracts in 2014 to Boeing and Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) [of] up to $4.2 billion [for Boeing] and $2.6 billion [for SpaceX] for the development of crew transportation systems.” (GAO-18-476)

 

In other words, Boeing requested and received a full 60% more than SpaceX to – quite literally – accomplish an identical task. Alongside the storied and brutally expensive history of crewed American spaceflight, both contracts are an absolute steal for two modernized, crew-capable spacecraft, but a 60% premium is a 60% premium. Foreseeable but slight cost overruns caused, among other things, by additional contractual requirements from NASA have followed a similar trend, roughly proportional to each company’s slice of the original $6.8b Commercial Crew contract.

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“As of April 2018, NASA requirement changes had increased the value of contract line item 001 for Boeing by approximately $191 million and for SpaceX by approximately $91 million.” (GAO-18-476)

Still, Boeing’s progress towards its own DM-1 and DM-2 demo flights and a pad-abort test are impressive, although it very likely is more of a demonstration of a different approach to public communications than of any actual step up on SpaceX. In the last few weeks, Boeing has released a number of photos showing off the progress made building its own Starliner capsules and service modules (trunks), three of which are currently in varied states of assembly and integration in the company’s Florida-based facility. Additionally, United Launch Alliance CEO Tory Bruno has shared off-and-on updates and photos of the launch contractor’s own progress assembling the rockets that will launch Boeing’s spacecraft.

Regardless, a huge amount of work lies ahead before both Boeing and SpaceX’s crewed spacecraft are able to conduct their first uncrewed and crewed launches into orbit. Now very outdated, NASA has stated several times recently that the presently available targets of NET August 31 will likely be updated later this month, pushing DM-1 debuts into NET Q4 2018 and the first commercial crewed demo missions to 2019.

Stay tuned, as the Block 5 Falcon 9 tasked with launching SpaceX’s own DM-1 Crew Dragon will likely be the next of a recent flood of finished rockets to leave the company’s Hawthorne factory, where it will head to McGregor, Texas to complete acceptance wet dress rehearsals and static fire tests before shipping to SpaceX’s Pad 39A in Florida.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla Cybercab spotted testing on public roads for the first time

The car was spotted just minutes from Tesla’s Engineering Headquarters in Los Altos, California. There are a few interesting tidbits we can gather from the photo and the information shared with it.

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Credit: Teslarati

The Tesla Cybercab has been spotted testing on public roads for the first time, marking a substantial step forward in the vehicle’s development.

The car was spotted just minutes from Tesla’s Engineering Headquarters in Los Altos, California. There are a few interesting tidbits we can gather from the photo and the information shared with it:

The vehicle had a driver and side view mirrors equipped on it, which seems to be pretty expected, especially at this stage.

Tesla might have been using its Full Self-Driving software with the vehicle as it enters this new stage of testing on public roads. This seems most likely, especially as the car, which has long been developed to be void of a steering wheel and pedals, will totally rely on autonomous tech to transport one or two passengers to their destination.

Additionally, side view mirrors are required by law at delivery, and Tesla was likely looking to keep things as safe and elementary as possible, especially with this early stage of testing.

As this is the first time the vehicle has been spotted on public roads and the first time it was likely testing on them, Tesla was being cautious.

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There have been a lot of developments with Cybercab over the past few weeks, as the car has been spotted testing on the Fremont Factory’s test track, units have been seen outside of Gigafactory Texas’s crash testing facility, and there has been some additional speculation about what the vehicle’s standard equipment will be.

There have also been quite a few job postings by Tesla for manufacturing and production roles related to Cybercab over the past few weeks.

Yesterday, Tesla’s Board Chair, Robyn Denholm, revealed that the company could end up building Cybercab with a steering wheel and pedals, contrary to what Tesla and CEO Elon Musk have wanted to do.

Tesla Cybercab might be getting a huge change

The vehicle has yet to reach that stage of regulatory testing, but Tesla wants to start volume production in Q2. If it wants to release the vehicle without any manual controls, that means that Full Self-Driving will need to be completed within the next eight months.

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Tesla hints it could see ‘a few more vehicles’ released soon

Denholm said on CNBC yesterday that “we do have a few other vehicles coming out.”

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Tesla Board Chair Robyn Denholm hinted the company could see “a few more vehicles” coming out and being released soon, although there is no indication of what could be on the way based on her comments.

However, Tesla has hinted toward several potential releases in the coming years, as other executives, including Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen, have talked briefly about what could be on the way.

Denholm said on CNBC yesterday that “we do have a few other vehicles coming out.”

It was a vague and almost cryptic sentence, as, in all honesty, it was not completely clear whether she was talking about recent releases that are just making their way to market, like the Model 3 and Model Y “Standard,” or new vehicles altogether.

Nevertheless, it’s worth dissecting.

Tesla “Standard” Models

On October 7, Tesla launched the Standard Model 3 and Model Y, stripped-down versions of their now “Premium” siblings. The Standard trims lack premium features like leather seats, a rear touchscreen, and a glass roof, among other features.

Tesla begins deliveries of its affordable Model Y Standard

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These cars are just starting to be delivered for the first time, so it is possible that Denholm was referring to these cars.

Potential Model 2 Hint?

There has always been a looming vehicle model that many Tesla fans and owners have been intrigued by: the Model 2.

This car was hinted at being the $25,000 model that Tesla was rumored to be developing, and many thought that was the vehicle that would be released earlier this month, not the Standard Model 3 and Model Y.

Instead, the Model 2 could be something that would enable Tesla to reach an entirely new consumer base, including those who are not able to swing the payment for the company’s more premium offerings.

It seems Tesla will have to launch some sort of extremely affordable model in the future, and with the Cybercab being slotted at that rough price point, it would not be out of the question for it to be in the realm of possibility for future releases.

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It’s worth noting, however, that it is probably unlikely this will happen. Tesla is so deadset focused on autonomy, it seems Cybercab would take extreme precedence over the unconfirmed “Model 2.”

Cybertruck-inspired SUV

Tesla fans have been begging the company to develop a full-size SUV that would compete with the Ford Expedition or Chevrolet Tahoe, but the company has not given any indication that this would be something it would build.

Nevertheless, there was a very subtle hint in a recent promotional clip that showed a Cyber SUV mock-up placed strategically next to a clay model of a Model 3:

Tesla appears to be mulling a Cyber SUV design

The Model X is simply not what people want when it comes to an SUV, as it does not have the seating capacity and cargo space that many need with a full-sized SUV.

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This issue, in particular, has been one that has been extremely relevant to the company’s future lineup as consumers have shown they would be interested in a Tesla vehicle that fit this description.

Additionally, von Holzhausen said in September that a Cyber SUV or a smaller electric pickup with a more traditional design is “definitely things we’ve considered…We’re working on so many innovative and fun things.”

Tesla gives big hint that it will build Cyber SUV, smaller Cybertruck

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Investor's Corner

Tesla enters new stability phase, firm upgrades and adjusts outlook

Dmitriy Pozdnyakov of Freedom Capital upgraded his outlook on Tesla shares from “Sell” to “Hold” on Wednesday, and increased the price target from $338 to $406.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla is entering a new phase of stability in terms of vehicle deliveries, one firm wrote in a new note during the final week of October, backing its position with an upgrade and price target increase on the stock.

Dmitriy Pozdnyakov of Freedom Capital upgraded his outlook on Tesla shares from “Sell” to “Hold” on Wednesday, and increased the price target from $338 to $406.

While most firms are interested in highlighting Tesla’s future growth, which will be catalyzed mostly by the advent of self-driving vehicles, autonomy, and the company’s all-in mentality on AI and robotics, Pozdnyakov is solely focusing on vehicle deliveries.

The analyst wrote in a note to investors that he believes Tesla’s updated vehicle lineup, which includes its new affordable “Standard” trims of the Model 3 and Model Y, is going to stabilize the company’s delivery volumes and return the company to annual growth.

Tesla launches two new affordable models with ‘Standard’ Model 3, Y offerings

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Tesla launched the new affordable Model 3 and Model Y “Standard” trims on October 7, which introduced two stripped-down, less premium versions of the all-electric sedan and crossover.

They are both priced at under $40,000, with the Model 3 at $37,990 and the Model Y at $39,990, and while these prices may not necessarily be what consumers were expecting, they are well under what Kelley Blue Book said was the average new car transaction price for September, which swelled above $50,000.

Despite the rollout of these two new models, it is interesting to hear that a Wall Street firm would think that Tesla is going to return to more stable delivery figures and potentially enter a new growth phase.

Many Wall Street firms have been more focused on AI, Robotics, and Tesla’s self-driving project, which are the more prevalent things that will drive investor growth over the next few years.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, tends to focus on the company’s prowess in AI and self-driving. However, he did touch on vehicle deliveries in the coming years in a recent note.

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Ives said in a note on October 2:

“While EV demand is expected to fall with the EV tax credit expiration, this was a great bounce-back quarter for TSLA to lay the groundwork for deliveries moving forward, but there is still work to do to gain further ground from a delivery perspective.”

Tesla has some things to figure out before it can truly consider guaranteed stability from a delivery standpoint. Initially, the next two quarters will be a crucial way to determine demand without the $7,500 EV tax credit. It will also begin to figure out if its new affordable models are attractive enough at their current price point to win over consumers.

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