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SpaceX’s Crew Dragon preps for debut as race to return astronauts to US craft nears final stages
After spending two weeks testing in a specialized NASA-run facility, SpaceX’s first flightworthy Crew Dragon spacecraft was shipped from Ohio to Florida, where it will now spend a number of months preparing for its first (uncrewed) launch into Earth orbit.
Known as Demonstration Mission 1 (DM-1), this critical milestone must be passed before the capsule will be certified to carry NASA astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS) sometime in 2019. While DM-1 will not sport a human crew, the spacecraft is nevertheless expected to demonstrate all life and mission-critical components, ranging from Crew Dragon’s complex array of avionics and ground/orbital communications equipment to craft’s ability to safely return passengers to Earth with a soft ocean landing.
SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft has been in the serious hardware development phase for approximately five years, although the concept itself dates back about as early as its Cargo Dragon predecessor – 2005 to 2006, publicly. Over the course of roughly two weeks of testing at NASA’s Plum Brook Station, Crew Dragon was likely subjected to a suite of environmental conditions the spacecraft will need to routinely survive to make it through initial launch and successfully operate under the rigors of microgravity and thermal vacuum conditions.
Crew Dragon arrived in Florida this week ahead of its first flight after completing thermal vacuum and acoustic testing at @NASA’s Plum Brook Station in Ohio. https://t.co/xXJE8TjcTr pic.twitter.com/lr0P95zzIK
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) July 12, 2018
Given the DM-1 capsule and trunk’s fairly quick jaunt at the huge Plum Brook vacuum chamber and equally quick arrival in Florida, those test results were likely quite favorable. Still, a major amount of work lies ahead before the first full Crew Dragon is ready for its launch atop Falcon 9. Most significantly, the craft’s trunk did not follow its fellow capsule to Florida, but rather returned to SpaceX’s Hawthorne, CA factory to be outfitted with critical flight hardware, particularly radiators and solar arrays. Once that outfit is complete, the module will also be shipped to Florida before being integrated with the DM-1 Crew Dragon capsule.
Of note, the DM-1 capsule has been constructed from the start to support a plan to use the vehicle in an in-flight abort test meant to ensure that the craft can wrest its passengers from harm’s way even at the most intense point of launch, where aerodynamic pressures are at their peak. In order to properly support both the DM-1 orbital mission and the in-flight abort test to follow, the capsule has been outfitted with a fair amount (hundreds of pounds) of hardware that will be unique to the pathfinder spacecraft. This understandably adds its own complexity to the already intense program’s first orbital mission, although it will hopefully not translate into additional delays.
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- NASA Astronaut Suni Williams, fully suited in SpaceX’s spacesuit, interfaces with the display inside a mock-up of the Crew Dragon spacecraft in Hawthorne, California, during a testing exercise on April 3. (SpaceX)
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- SpaceX’s Demo Mission-1 Crew Dragon seen preparing for vacuum tests at a NASA-run facility, June 2018. (SpaceX)
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- Crew Dragon parachute tests are likely to continue into the summer to ensure NASA certification in time for DM-1. (SpaceX)
SpaceX competitor’s crewed spacecraft and rocket take shape
It’s worth noting that SpaceX is effectively operating at a distinct – albeit partially self-wrought – financial handicap when compared with Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft program, one of two vehicles funded by NASA to accomplish the same task of safely and reliably transporting astronauts to and from the ISS.
“NASA awarded firm-fixed-price contracts in 2014 to Boeing and Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) [of] up to $4.2 billion [for Boeing] and $2.6 billion [for SpaceX] for the development of crew transportation systems.” (GAO-18-476)
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- Boeing’s DM-2 Starliner undergoes integration in Florida earlier this year. (Boeing)
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- The ULA Atlas V rocket that will launch Boeing’s DM-1 Starliner spacecraft captured at ULA’s Decatur, AL factory, October 2017. (ULA)
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- The United Launch Alliance (ULA) dual engine Centaur upper stage of the Atlas V rocket in the final stages of production and checkout, May 2018. (ULA)
In other words, Boeing requested and received a full 60% more than SpaceX to – quite literally – accomplish an identical task. Alongside the storied and brutally expensive history of crewed American spaceflight, both contracts are an absolute steal for two modernized, crew-capable spacecraft, but a 60% premium is a 60% premium. Foreseeable but slight cost overruns caused, among other things, by additional contractual requirements from NASA have followed a similar trend, roughly proportional to each company’s slice of the original $6.8b Commercial Crew contract.
“As of April 2018, NASA requirement changes had increased the value of contract line item 001 for Boeing by approximately $191 million and for SpaceX by approximately $91 million.” (GAO-18-476)
Still, Boeing’s progress towards its own DM-1 and DM-2 demo flights and a pad-abort test are impressive, although it very likely is more of a demonstration of a different approach to public communications than of any actual step up on SpaceX. In the last few weeks, Boeing has released a number of photos showing off the progress made building its own Starliner capsules and service modules (trunks), three of which are currently in varied states of assembly and integration in the company’s Florida-based facility. Additionally, United Launch Alliance CEO Tory Bruno has shared off-and-on updates and photos of the launch contractor’s own progress assembling the rockets that will launch Boeing’s spacecraft.
The two engine Centaur is getting ready and excited for #StarLiner. pic.twitter.com/WIf3H8k9yq
— Tory Bruno (@torybruno) July 2, 2018
Regardless, a huge amount of work lies ahead before both Boeing and SpaceX’s crewed spacecraft are able to conduct their first uncrewed and crewed launches into orbit. Now very outdated, NASA has stated several times recently that the presently available targets of NET August 31 will likely be updated later this month, pushing DM-1 debuts into NET Q4 2018 and the first commercial crewed demo missions to 2019.
Stay tuned, as the Block 5 Falcon 9 tasked with launching SpaceX’s own DM-1 Crew Dragon will likely be the next of a recent flood of finished rockets to leave the company’s Hawthorne factory, where it will head to McGregor, Texas to complete acceptance wet dress rehearsals and static fire tests before shipping to SpaceX’s Pad 39A in Florida.
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Tesla Full Self-Driving (Supervised) showed a record attach rate at delivery for new vehicles in the third quarter of 2026.
75 percent of new vehicle deliveries in North America included a subscription to FSD software, up from 55 percent in the prior quarter, a 20-percentage-point sequential gain in the company’s most mature market.
Tesla Q3 2026 Earnings results: in-line revenues, slight beat on EPS
Tesla shed light on the Q3 Shareholder Deck that 75 percent of new deliveries came with an FSD subscription:
“FSD (Supervised)⁴ attach rate continued to grow, reaching over 75% of new vehicle deliveries in North America – our most mature market – a nearly twenty percentage point sequential increase. We believe that FSD is driving demand in markets where it is available, and we continue to work with regulators to get it approved in other markets. “
The higher attach rate accompanied strong growth in the overall FSD consumer base, as active subscriptions rose to 1.75 million, a 67 percent year-over-year increase. For the first time, more than half of paid customers are on the monthly subscription, which is priced at $99 per month in the U.S.
People are buying FSD with a car attached, not the other way around
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 21, 2026
The transition to subscriptions has accelerated since Tesla discontinued the one-time purchase option in most markets earlier this year. The recurring model improves revenue visibility and margins compared with large upfront payments. With three-quarters of North American deliveries now including FSD, the software is now an evidently large contributor to Tesla’s economics and ancillary revenue.
Geographic expansion remains important for further gains. FSD is now available in nine countries in the EU, and more than 100,000 customers have driven over 160 million kilometers. Tesla is pursuing broader EU-wide approval, with a related vote expected in December. Similar progress in additional markets could support higher attach rates beyond North America.
These results came as Tesla had a strong quarterly delivery performance of 486,532 vehicles in the quarter, which came with its largest passenger-vehicle backlog in four years. Battery supply continued to limit volume, but the company has pointed to FSD as a clear difference-maker that is helping sustain demand. As supervised capabilities improve, the attach rate will likely continue to improve.
At face value, it is a key measure of how Tesla is converting sales into autonomy progress.
Update: 10/22 10:51a – Para 1 consumers changed to “customers” for accuracy.
Tesla Cybercab units finally got a definitive date for when they will be able to be purchased by customers, ending speculation regarding whether the fully autonomous vehicle would be available in the near term.
During Tesla’s third-quarter 2026 earnings call on October 21, Vice President of Engineering Lars Moravy said the company is aiming to begin delivering its purpose-built Cybercab robotaxi to customers before year-end.
🚨 In short, Cybercabs are slated to go to customers by end of the year. All units are going into Robotaxi fleet currently, per @larsmoravy
Cybercab will be “transport-as-a-service,” but vast majority of Cybercab will be “Tesla-owned,” @elonmusk says https://t.co/R8Qu8QWdmp
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 21, 2026
“We’re trying to get Cybercabs to customers by the end of this year, 2026,” Moravy said. He added that production is underway on the line at Gigafactory Texas, but “all of those are currently going to our own internal Robotaxi fleet.”
Moravy explained that as operations scale, Tesla will “mainly deliver fully designed autonomous vehicles to our customers,” with the Cybercab as the first such vehicle. Initial customer deliveries will start small while the company gains experience with delivery logistics, ownership models, fleet management, and operating autonomous vehicles outside its direct control.
CEO Elon Musk reinforced the limited nature of private sales, describing the Cybercab primarily as a “transport-as-a-service” offering rather than a personal ownership vehicle like the Model 3, Model Y, or upcoming Roadster. “The vast majority of the Cybercab stuff will be Tesla-owned and transport-as-a-service,” Musk said.
The Cybercab is a two-seater vehicle developed by Tesla without a steering wheel or pedals. It relies completely on Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite and has been in production since February. Early units have been put in Tesla’s Robotaxi service as of early September, when the company launched rides to the public. Tesla previously indicated it would aim to sell Cybercabs for about $30,000.
Unsupervised Full Self-Driving is expected to ship to consumer cars during Q2 2027, Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s Head of AI, indicated during the call. Early buyers or fleet operators may receive vehicles whose autonomous operation remains geographically restricted due to lagging regulatory agencies. There are some hurdles that remain ahead of Cybercab deliveries.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported its earnings for the third quarter of 2026, marking a reasonable performance on the various financial metrics. Tesla still plans to hold a call that will field investor questions at 5:30 p.m. ET, 4:30 p.m. CT.
Here’s where Earnings came in:
- Total Revenues: $28.046 reported vs. $28.34B expected
- Non-GAAP EPS: $0.48 reported vs. $0.45 expected
- Operating Margin: 2.6 % reported vs. 2.5% expected
- Operating Income: $718M reported vs. $721M expected
- Free Cash Flow: $1.531B reported vs. ~-$4.51B expected
Tesla $TSLA Earnings Results:
Revenues: $28.046B
Non-GAAP EPS: $0.48
Operating Margin: 2.6%
Operating Income: $718M
FCF: $1.531B— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 21, 2026
Major Takeaways
Full Self-Driving (Supervised)
“FSD (Supervised)⁴ attach rate continued to grow, reaching over 75% of new vehicle deliveries in North America – our most mature market – a nearly twenty percentage point sequential increase. We believe that FSD is driving demand in markets where it is available, and we continue to work with regulators to get it approved in other markets.”
Tesla Semi
“We began volume production of Tesla Semi, our Class 8 heavy-duty truck. The top variant can go 500 miles at full 82,000 lbs gross combination weight while achieving an efficiency of 1.7 kWh/mile. That efficiency allows the Tesla Semi to use a third of the energy used by a comparable diesel truck to haul the same payload. In a transportation market where energy is one of the largest components of total cost per mile, this will provide a meaningful advantage to Tesla Semi operators.”
SI Compute
“We plan to reach 400 MW of SI training compute by the end of the year, supporting the development of both vehicle and humanoid robot autonomy software. Additionally, we continued construction for the Austin Fab, where we plan to start commissioning equipment in 2027.”
Robotaxi
“We began deployment of Cybercab into our Robotaxi fleet in Austin. We reached nearly two million cumulative unsupervised miles for our Robotaxi service as of the end of the quarter. Operating hours in Austin are now 6am to midnight, and we expect to reduce wait times via increased fleet supply and improvement of Robotaxi orchestration algorithms. Grok is available in Cybercab with access to Grok Bot and Connectors, which allows users to manage their inbox, calendars, files, chats and tasks – all hands free via voice command – making Cybercab a mode of transport, a productivity space and, with our entertainment options, a second living room.”
Interested in ordering a Tesla? Use my referral code for three free months of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) here.
Tesla buyers are buying for Full Self-Driving and not for the car, data shows
Tesla Cybercab gets a for sale date at last
