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SpaceX Crew Dragon to perform first space station “flyaround” in November
A member of a NASA safety advisory panel says that SpaceX’s second operational Crew Dragon spacecraft will perform the first International Space Station (ISS) “flyaround” in years.
In the days of the Space Shuttle, similar flyaround maneuvers were extremely common as the US and Russia slowly but surely assembled the ISS from nothing in low Earth orbit (LEO) – mainly serving to document that undeniably historic process. In 2011, NASA and Roscosmos planned what would become the last flyaround in seven years to capture Shuttle Discovery on its last mission (also the first of the Shuttle’s last three launches) and the more-or-less completed space station. While the occasional partial flyaround still occurred during rare spacecraft relocation maneuvers, it would be more than seven years until the next flyaround – again by a Soyuz spacecraft – was completed in October 2018, capturing excellent photos of the ISS ahead of its 20th anniversary in orbit.
Now, more than three years after Soyuz’s MS-08 flyaround, SpaceX is reportedly set to continue the tradition as early as November 2021, making Crew Dragon the third of three crewed visiting vehicles to do a full flyaround survey of the ~450 ton (million-pound) orbital outpost.
Barring changing plans, twice-flown Crew Dragon Endeavor (C206) will perform the maneuver immediately after it undocks from the space station for the second time (including one relocation maneuver) with Crew-2 ESA astronaut Thomas Pesquet, JAXA astronaut Akihiko Hoshide, and NASA astronauts Shane Kimbrough and Megan McArthur. According to the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) meeting where news of the flyaround was first broken, Crew-2’s ISS departure remains on track to occur in early to mid-November.
In the 5-6 weeks between then and now, SpaceX is scheduled to undock Cargo Dragon 2 spacecraft C208 and return it to Earth, completing the CRS-23 resupply mission and capsule C208’s second trip to orbit and freeing up one of the ISS’ two American docking ports. Then, SpaceX is scheduled to launch yet another batch of astronauts to the ISS as part of Crew Dragon’s third operational crew transfer mission (Crew-3). Crew-3 remains on track to launch no earlier than (NET) October 31st, where it and astronauts Raja Chari, Thomas Marshburn, Kayla Barron, and Matthias Maurer will briefly join Crew-2 and their Dragon at the ISS.
Hand-off complete, Crew-2 and Dragon Endeavor will then be free to depart the ISS, perform the first 360-degree flyaround survey in years, and return to Earth after more than six months in orbit. Due to years of continued technical and programmatic delays, Boeing – NASA’s other Commercial Crew partner – is unlikely to be ready to support operational astronaut launches until late 2022 at the earliest, likely guaranteeing that one or even two more Dragon-to-Dragon crew handoffs will occur before Starliner can give Dragon a break. SpaceX, in other words, is on track to singlehandedly ensure continuous NASA access to the International Space Station for two full years – and maybe even longer.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
News
Tesla FSD (Supervised) is about to go on “widespread” release
In a comment last October, Elon Musk stated that FSD V14.2 is “for widespread use.”
Tesla has begun rolling out Full Self-Driving (Supervised) V14.2, and with this, the wide release of the system could very well begin.
The update introduces a new high-resolution vision encoder, expanded emergency-vehicle handling, smarter routing, new parking options, and more refined driving behavior, among other improvements.
FSD V14.2 improvements
FSD (Supervised) V14.2’s release notes highlight a fully upgraded neural-network vision encoder capable of reading higher-resolution features, giving the system improved awareness of emergency vehicles, road obstacles, and even human gestures. Tesla also expanded its emergency-vehicle protocols, adding controlled pull-overs and yielding behavior for police cars, fire trucks, and ambulances, among others.
A deeper integration of navigation and routing into the vision network now allows the system to respond to blocked roads or detours in real time. The update also enhances decision-making in several complex scenarios, including unprotected turns, lane changes, vehicle cut-ins, and interactions with school buses. All in all, these improvements should help FSD (Supervised) V14.2 perform in a very smooth and comfortable manner.
Elon Musk’s predicted wide release
The significance of V14.2 grows when paired with Elon Musk’s comments from October. While responding to FSD tester AI DRIVR, who praised V14.1.2 for fixing “95% of indecisive lane changes and braking” and who noted that it was time for FSD to go on wide release, Musk stated that “14.2 for widespread use.”
FSD V14 has so far received a substantial amount of positive reviews from Tesla owners, many of whom have stated that the system now drives better than some human drivers as it is confident, cautious, and considerate at the same time. With V14.2 now rolling out, it remains to be seen if the update also makes it to the company’s wide FSD fleet, which is still populated by a large number of HW3 vehicles.
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
