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SpaceX’s Crew Dragon launch moves to March, risking Falcon Heavy delays

SpaceX completed a static fire of the first Falcon 9 rated for human flight on January 24th. DM-1 is now NET March 2019, clashing with Falcon Heavy's schedule. (SpaceX)

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The planning date for the launch debut of SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft has been pushed to no earlier than (NET) March 2019 per sources familiar with the matter, potentially creating a direct schedule conflict with the company’s planned operational debut of Falcon Heavy, also NET March 2019.

At the same time as delays to the Commercial Crew Program continue to increase the odds that NASA will lose assured access to the International Space Station (ISS) in 2020, both of SpaceX’s critical missions are entirely dependent upon the support of its Kennedy Space Center-located Launch Complex 39A (Pad 39A), creating a logistical puzzle that will likely delay Falcon Heavy’s second launch until Crew Dragon is safely in orbit.

As of the first week of December 2018, SpaceX was reportedly planning towards a mid-January 2019 launch debut for Crew Dragon. By the end of December, DM-1 was no earlier than the end of January. By the end of January, DM-1 had slipped to from late-February to NET March 2019. Put in slightly different terms, SpaceX’s Crew Dragon launch debut has been more or less indefinitely postponed for the last two months, with planning dates being pushed back at roughly the same pace as the passage of time (i.e. a day’s delay every day).

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Admittedly, DM’s apparently indefinite postponement may well be – and probably is – more of an artifact than a sign of any monolithic cause. While the US government’s longest-ever shutdown (35 days) undoubtedly delayed a major proportion of mission-critical work having to do with extensive NASA reviews of SpaceX and Crew Dragon’s launch readiness (known as Readiness Reviews), much of the 60+ day DM-1 delay can probably be attributed to the complexity of the tasks at hand. Being as it is the first time SpaceX has ever attempted a launch directly related to human spaceflight, as well as the first time NASA has been back at the helm (more or less) of US astronaut launch endeavors in more than 7.5 years, significant delays should come as no surprise regardless of how disappointing they may be.

The most consequential aspect of DM-1’s two-month (at least) delay will likely be the myriad ways it feeds into delays of SpaceX’s in-flight abort (IFA) test and first crewed launch (DM-2), and thus’s NASA’s ability to once again independently launch US astronauts. Given that SpaceX’s DM-2 is expected to occur around six months after DM-1 and that the final certification of Crew Dragon for official astronaut launches will likely take another 2-3 months, these delays – barring heroics or program modifications – are pushing NASA dangerously close to the edge of losing assured US access to the International Space Station (ISS).

According to a July 2018 report, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) analyzed the Commercial Crew Program and NASA’s human spaceflight program more generally and concluded that NASA would lose assured access to the ISS in November 2019 if Boeing and SpaceX continued to suffer delays and were unable to reach certification status by then. This comes as a result of NASA’s reliance on Russian Soyuz launches for access both to and from the ISS, launch and return service contracts which have no replacements (aside from SpaceX and Boeing). While GAO noted that NASA could likely delay that loss of assured access until January 2020, even that might be pushing it if SpaceX’s DM-1 delay continues much further.

“[While NASA is working on potential solutions, it] has not yet developed a contingency plan to address the potential gaps that [future delays in Boeing and SpaceX schedules] could have on U.S. access to the ISS after 2019.” – GAO, July 2018

Prior to DM-1’s delay from NET January to NET March 2019, SpaceX was targeting an In-Flight Abort test roughly three months after DM-1 (it will reuse DM-1’s Crew Dragon capsule), DM-2 six months after DM-1 (NET June 2019), and NASA certification and the first operational astronaut launch (PCM-1) as few as two months after DM-2 (August 2019). It’s reasonable to assume that delays to DM-1 will impact subsequent Crew Dragon launches roughly 1:1, as DM-2 and its many associated reviews hinge directly on DM-1, while the same relationship also exists between PCM-1 and DM-2. As a result, Crew Dragon’s two-month delay probably means that SpaceX’s NASA certification will occur no earlier than October 2019, giving NASA no more than 90 days of buffer before the US presence on the ISS drops from around 50% (3 astronauts) to 0%.

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Crew Dragon and Falcon Heavy walk into a bar…

The unexpected delays to Crew Dragon’s DM-1 launch debut are likely placing SpaceX in an awkward situation with respect to the operational launch debut of Falcon Heavy, meant to place the terminally delayed Arabsat 6A satellite into orbit no earlier than March 7th, 2019 (at the absolute earliest). DM-1 is also targeting a launch sometime in March, posing a significant problem: both Falcon Heavy and Crew Dragon can only launch from Pad 39A, while the on-site hangar simply doesn’t have the space to support schedule-critical Falcon Heavy prelaunch work (mainly booster integration and a static fire test) and no less critical Crew Dragon launch preparations simultaneously.

 

Much like SpaceX’s inaugural Falcon Heavy rocket spent a month and a half fully integrated and more than two weeks in a static-fire limbo (albeit due to one-of-a-kind circumstances) before its launch debut, SpaceX’s second Falcon Heavy rocket – comprised of three new Block 5 boosters and Heavy-specific hardware upgrades – is likely to take a good deal more time than a normal Falcon 9 for prelaunch processing. Almost all of that Heavy-specific testing depends on the rocket being integrated (i.e. all three boosters attached) for preflight fit and systems checks and a wet dress rehearsal (WDR) and/or static fire ignition test.

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It’s entirely possible that SpaceX integration technicians are able to complete the process of swapping out Crew Dragon and Falcon 9, modifying the transport/erector (T/E), completing Falcon Heavy booster integration, and installing Falcon Heavy on the T/E quickly enough to allow for simultaneous DM-1 and Arabsat 6A processing. It’s also possible that an extremely elegant but risky alternative strategy could solve the logistical puzzle – as an example, SpaceX could roll Crew Dragon and Falcon 9 out to Pad 39A a week or more before launch to give Falcon Heavy enough space for full integration, whereby Falcon 9’s necessarily successful launch would clear the T/E and allow it to be rolled back into 39A’s hangar for Falcon Heavy installation.

The most likely (and least risky) end result, however, is an indefinite delay for Falcon Heavy Flight 2, pending the successful launch of Crew Dragon. This is very much an instance where “wait and see” is the only route to solid answers, so wait and see we shall.


Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes!

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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SpaceX

SpaceX’s Starbase nears city status with voter support

With 90% voter support expected, Starbase City could soon become reality. The space-age town will support SpaceX’s mission to Mars.

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(Credit: SpaceX/X)

Starbase is on the cusp of becoming the nation’s newest municipality. Local voters are casting ballots and deciding whether to incorporate the Starbase community. The voting process, which runs until May 3, 2025, could transform the unincorporated area into a space-age city.

Starbase is located in Cameron County’s Rio Grande Valley, 25 miles east of Brownsville, Texas. It is home to SpaceX’s Starship facility and houses fewer than 300 residents, including 120 children.

Elon Musk relocated SpaceX’s headquarters from Hawthorne, California, to Starbase in 2024, envisioning a futuristic town for his workforce. Musk pitched the concept of a space-age city four years ago and has repeatedly talked about it over the years.

The proposed Starbase city would span 1.5 square miles—roughly the size of New York’s Central Park. It would potentially house 3,500 SpaceX employees. A petition filed earlier this year triggered the vote to establish Starbase as a Type C municipality. SpaceX believes Starbase needs to be incorporated to support its mission to travel to Mars.

The vote is expected to pass, with 90% of the 279 eligible voters expected to favor establishing a Starbase city. Voters will also select a mayor and two commissioners for the new city. Bobby Peden is currently the only candidate for Mayor of Starbase. Meanwhile, Jordan Buss and Jenna Petrzelka are running for commissioner.

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Starbase’s incorporation would mark a bold step in Musk’s vision, creating a hub tailored to SpaceX’s Mars ambitions. As voting continues, the outcome could redefine the Rio Grande Valley, establishing a unique, company-driven municipality centered on space exploration.

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Ukraine seeks Starlink alternatives from the EU

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(Credit: SpaceX)

Ukraine is exploring EU satellite alternatives to Starlink, driven by concerns over Elon Musk’s unpredictability. Starlink remains vital for Ukraine’s battlefield connectivity and cannot be easily replaced. While the European Union has started developing Starlink alternatives, they have not quite reached SpaceX’s capacity to provide internet connection.

Starlink’s Critical Role and Vulnerabilities

Starlink’s 7,000+ satellite network provides essential connectivity for Ukraine’s military. However, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk’s influence has raised strategic concerns.

“Elon Musk is, in fact, the guardian of Ukraine’s connectivity on the battlefield. And that’s a strategic vulnerability,” warns Arthur De Liedekerke, Senior Director of European Affairs for Rasmussen Global.

Opinions of Musk have started to influence dealings with any of his companies, including SpaceX and Tesla. Starlink has not escaped criticism due to its relationship with Musk, resulting in a few governments seeking alternatives to SpaceX’s internet services.

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For instance, the German military has announced plans to develop a Starlink alternative. Kyiv and the EU are also seeking options to reduce reliance on Starlink.

EU’s Govsatcom as a Near-Term Option

Member of the EU Parliament (MEP) Christophe Grudler pitched the European Union’s Govsatcom system as a viable alternative to Starlink for Ukraine.

“It is clear that if Starlink decides to cut the signal today, we have options, in particular with Govsatcom, which is the European network that we have brought into service and which, from June, will make it possible to supplement Starlink’s missing signal in Ukraine, if necessary,” he said.

Grudler affirmed: “The European Union is very committed to helping Ukraine, so there would certainly be agreement from all the Member States to come to Ukraine’s aid if it no longer had a Starlink signal in the future.”

However, De Liedekerke pointed out that GovSatcom was made for government use. He noted that “GoveSatcom is a governmental secure satellite communications and it’s essentially to provide reliable, secure, strategically autonomous networks for communication services between governments in the EU. It couldn’t replace the kind of battlefield connectivity that we’re discussing for Ukraine. So it’s not a silver bullet at the moment.”

Eutelsat’s Competitive Edge

Eutelsat, a Franco-British operator, offers a low-Earth orbit network with 630 satellites and 35 geostationary ones, though it trails Starlink’s scale. It has 2,000 terminals deployed in Ukraine and 14,000 more planned to deploy. Starlink has 40,000 terminals in Ukraine, used by the military and civilians.

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Price is another factor to consider when seeking a Starlink alternative. Eutelsat’s €9,000 terminals are pricier than Starlink’s €500 units.

“Eutelsat is our European champion, one that has convincing functioning solutions. And one that we need to be able to support through funding and political will,” De Liedekerke said, noting its political independence from the U.S.

Iris2 as a Future Solution

The EU’s Iris2 project is another Starlink alternative Ukraine might consider. The Iris2 project is a 290-satellite constellation, promising secure, low-latency connectivity by 2030, with partial operations by 2028.

“From 2028, we will have an operational Iris2 constellation that will be able to provide telecommunications services to all the Member States that so wish. I would add that this will be the first time we have had a constellation secured with post-quantum cryptography, so cyber-attacks will not be possible on this constellation. It will be a world first with an ultra-secure signal, which is not the case with the Starlink signal either,” Grudler said. ‘

Led by the SpaceRISE consortium, Iris2 offers a long-term alternative, though its timeline limits immediate impact.

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Strategic Diversification

De Liedekerke has stressed the need for options aside from Starlink.

“It’s about having options. It’s about not having a single point of failure. It’s being able to say no to one and still be online. And today, we’re not in a situation where we can do that. We’ve let Ukraine’s war zone connectivity be in the hands of one man…that’s a strategic vulnerability.

By having options, by having alternatives, by diversifying our partnerships, we avoid that single point of failure.”

Ukraine’s pursuit of EU solutions aims to ensure battlefield resilience. However, the EU has some way to go before it can match Starlink’s reach.

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SpaceX pitches subscription model for Trump’s Golden Dome

SpaceX pitched a subscription model for Trump’s Golden Dome. Faster deployment, but at the cost of gov control & steady bills.

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(Credit: SpaceX/X)

SpaceX pitched a subscription model for U.S. President Donald Trump’s Golden Dome for America.

SpaceX is a frontrunner to build key components of President Trump’s Golden Dome–formerly known as the Iron Dome. In January, President Trump signed an Executive Order to build an Iron Dome missile defense shield to protect America.

The ambitious project has drawn intense interest from defense startups, including Epirus, Ursa Major, and Armada. Companies with long-standing contracts with the U.S. government are also vying to build Trump’s Golden Dome, like Boeing and Lockheed Martin.

According to six Reuters sources, SpaceX is partnering with Palantir and Anduril on a Golden Dome proposal for the U.S. government.

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The trio is pitching a plan to deploy 400 to 1,000+ satellites for missile detection and tracking, with a separate fleet of 200 attack satellites armed with missiles or lasers to neutralize threats. SpaceX will mainly focus on the sensing satellites, not weaponization.

SpaceX reportedly proposed a subscription service model for Trump’s Golden Dome, where the government pays for access rather than owning the system outright. This approach could bypass some Pentagon procurement protocols, enabling faster deployment. However, it risks locking the government into ongoing costs and reduced control over development and pricing.

A few Pentagon officials are concerned about SpaceX’s subscription model for the Golden Dome because it is a rare approach for major defense programs. U.S. Space Force General Michael Guetlein is exploring whether SpaceX should own and operate its segment or if the U.S. should retain ownership with contractors managing operations.

The Golden Dome’s innovative scope and SpaceX’s subscription model signal a new era for defense contracting. However, Trump’s Golden Dome program is in its early stages, giving the Pentagon time to consider SpaceX’s subscription model proposal. As the Pentagon weighs options, SpaceX’s technical prowess and unconventional approach position it as a key player in Trump’s vision for a robust missile shield.

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