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SpaceX says crew spacecraft abort test still on track for 2019 launch

On November 13th, SpaceX successfully static fired Crew Dragon's SuperDraco engines in anticipation of a critical In-Flight Abort (IFA) test. (SpaceX)

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NASA recently invited members of the media to apply for access to SpaceX’s Crew Dragon in-flight abort (IFA) test and, as of December 5th, the company reaffirmed that the crucial test is still on track to launch just weeks from now.

In September, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk revealed that Crew Dragon’s IFA spacecraft and Falcon 9 was scheduled to arrive in Florida within a few weeks. Days later, NASA confirmed that the rocket and spacecraft arrived in Florida on October 3rd, sooner, in fact, than Musk had predicted. Over the next few weeks, SpaceX technicians and engineers effectively closed out Crew Dragon capsule C205, priming it for operations and installing its body panels.

On November 13th, about six weeks after arriving in Florida, SpaceX successfully tested Crew Dragon’s redesigned propellant plumbing and high-pressure gas systems by static firing its Draco thrusters and SuperDraco abort engines. The successful static fire test lasted around 9 seconds, mirroring the SuperDraco impulse and thruster inputs the spacecraft would need to demonstrate in an actual in-flight abort. Crew Dragon has four sets of two SuperDraco engines capable of producing a combined thrust of more than 130,000 lbs (570 kN), almost as much thrust as the original SpaceX Merlin 1D engines used on Falcon 9 in the early 2010s.

Meant to verify that SpaceX has successfully redesigned Crew Dragon after the spacecraft suffered a catastrophic explosion during a very similar static fire attempt, November 13th’s was followed by an exhaustive hardware inspection and data review, some of which is likely still ongoing. Although NASA’s media invite suggests that a given launch event could be just a month or so away, there is a ton of uncertainty when dealing with major launches of new hardware (like Crew Dragon), meaning delays are all but guaranteed.

During a pre-launch media briefing ahead of SpaceX’s CRS-19 Cargo Dragon launch, director of Dragon mission management Jessica Jensen answered a question about Crew Dragon’s IFA test, cautiously stating that SpaceX teams are “targeting [a] December” launch. During SpaceX’s December 5th CRS-19 launch webcast, Dragon Engineering Manager John Federspiel briefly brought up Crew Dragon, noting that SpaceX was completing “minor refurbishment” following its successful static fire.

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Most notably, he stated the IFA test was “targeted for February of 2020”, while Crew Dragon’s subsequent ‘Demo-2’ astronaut launch debut was expected to follow no earlier than (NET) “the first quarter of [2020]”, implying either February or March.

As it happened, SpaceX and several media outlets almost immediately attempted to correct the record, instead suggesting that Crew Dragon’s abort test is still tracking towards a launch later this month. Given that a senior Dragon engineering manager was the one to unblinkingly – and without correction – state that IFA is NET February 2020, there’s a strong possibility that he is technically correct but was not supposed to publicize the mission’s delay. At the same time, SpaceX appears to be firm on its claim that IFA is still aiming for a late-December launch. Delays would be no surprise – Crew Dragon’s Demo-1 launch debut took an agonizing three months to go from heading to the launchpad for the first to actually lifting off, almost entirely due to minor technical bugs and NASA paperwork.

Regardless, with less than four weeks left in 2019, SpaceX has an exceptionally tight schedule ahead of it to meet that December 2019 IFA launch goal and will effectively have to static fire IFA’s Falcon 9 before the end of the week or crush Crew Dragon’s inaugural processing time by at least a factor of four to achieve it. As such, a delay in 2020 should be all but expected at this point. With any luck, however, Crew Dragon will successfully perform its in-flight abort within the next 4-8 weeks, leaving SpaceX in a good place to prepare for its inaugural astronaut launch a few months later.

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Tesla creates clever solution to simplify and improve its Service

Raj Jegannathan, a Vice President of IT/AI-Infra, Apps, Infosec, and Vehicle Service Operations, revealed that Tesla has started a small pilot program at a few service locations to combat this issue.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has created a clever solution to simplify and improve its Service. Tesla performs most of the services that are needed on its vehicles at its company-owned Service Centers.

However, service has been a weak point of the company, as some regions have fewer Service Centers than others. This can cause long wait times for Tesla owners in some parts of the country.

There are also instances where customers do not agree with what Tesla is saying about their vehicle. In fact, one instance that revealed this new change Tesla is making to its Service was precisely that.

One owner posted on X that his vehicle’s battery seal had failed after a recall was issued. Tesla insurance and Tesla Service both did not assist, and it took CEO Elon Musk stepping in to get the issue resolved:

Another owner suggested there should be a more streamlined communications process between the customer and the Service Center, a solution that has been missing.

Raj Jegannathan, a Vice President of IT/AI-Infra, Apps, Infosec, and Vehicle Service Operations, revealed that Tesla has started a small pilot program at a few service locations to combat this issue.

Elon Musk wants Tesla Service to fix two-thirds of cars in the same day

Jegannathan said that Tesla has started to share local and regional leader contact information so customers have the ability to reach out when they have complaints or disagree with warranty claims, changes in estimates, or initial diagnostics.

It is available in a handful of locations already, and Jegannathan said that once abuse guardrails are built, this will expand to all locations:

This would be a major improvement in the Service portion of Tesla’s business. There are common disagreements between Service and customers, specifically when Service’s suggestions don’t align with the customer’s beliefs.

When it comes to things like a warranty claim, these issues are not really up for interpretation. Instead, the repairs should be made. If there is a misunderstanding on Service’s side, a simple message from the customer could have resolved the issue. That’s basically what happened here.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets its best analysis from Morgan Stanley as ‘it’s all about to change’

He maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $410 price target Morgan Stanley had on the stock.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla has gotten perhaps its best analysis from Morgan Stanley in quite some time, as the Wall Street firm claims that “it’s all about to change.”

That phrase could be used for both the company’s status and the world in general.

Analyst Adam Jonas said in a new note on Thursday to investors that Tesla could be one of the major winners in terms of the global transition from what it is now to what it will be.

He describes the global shift that will occur over the next few years:

“Have you interacted with a robot today? Have you even seen a robot today? No? Well, take a mental picture because it’s all about to change. When we meet someone who has never been in a Waymo or a Tesla Cybercab (which is most people), we frequently see a wince and a response such as ‘I’m not sure I’d feel comfortable getting in a car without a driver.’ We imagine going back in time to 1903 and asking people if they’d feel comfortable in an airplane.'”

The same technological revolutions that have occurred over the past 150 years will continue to occur again and again. We are on the verge of another, Jonas believes, as companies like Tesla are working on artificial intelligence tech, which includes changing the way we look at things like transportation and labor.

Jonas includes an interesting tidbit in his note about how humanoid robots could change wages, and how it could work into the advantage of Tesla, especially as it is developing its own Optimus robot:

“We estimate 1 humanoid robot at $5/hour can do the work of 2 humans at $25/hour, generating an NPV of approximately $200k/humanoid. 1 robot shaped car can potentially drive down cost/mile of a ride share vehicle to <$0.20 mile (1/10th human-driven ride-share).”

Jonas sees Tesla as a key player in how AI will impact things like manufacturing and various automotive industries, and he believes there is long-term potential for AI, robomobility, and even autonomous eVTOL platforms.

Tesla stock: Morgan Stanley says eVTOL is calling Elon Musk for new chapter

He maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $410 price target Morgan Stanley had on the stock.

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Tesla expands Robotaxi program in Austin to new riders

Tesla has been expanding both the rider group and the geofence in Austin slowly, making sure to prioritize safety and avoid any major events with the early rollout.

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Credit: @TerrapinTerpene/X

Tesla is expanding its Robotaxi program in Austin, Texas, as several people have received invitations to participate and take rides.

Tesla first launched the Robotaxi platform on June 22. It invited a handful of people to participate in the first-ever public rides. We were lucky enough to get an invitation, and our permissions have been expanded in the Bay Area pilot program as well.

The group was small and consisted of big names in the Tesla community. It expanded and is continuing to offer these exclusive invitations to notable members of the Tesla community.

There have been fewer than five subsequent invitations after the first group’s were sent in late June:

Tesla has been expanding both the rider group and the geofence in Austin slowly, making sure to prioritize safety and avoid any major events with the early rollout.

Tesla’s new Robotaxi geofence shape is an FU by Elon Musk to the competition

“We are being very cautious. We do not want to take any chances, so we are going to go cautiously. But the service areas and the number of vehicles in operation will increase at a hyper-exponential rate,” CEO Elon Musk said during the Q2 Earnings Call.

Eventually, the Robotaxi platform will not require an invite, and it will operate without geofences. Musk believes Tesla can get there within three or six months, and plans to have at least half of the U.S. population with access to a Robotaxi by the end of the year:

“I think we will probably have autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year. That’s at least our goal, subject to regulatory approvals. I think we will technically be able to do it. Assuming we have regulatory approvals, it’s probably addressing half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year.”

Tesla plans to have regulatory approval in Nevada, Arizona, and Florida sooner than in other states.

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