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SpaceX Falcon 9 Block 5 will usher in a new era of rapid reuse rockets
Despite all missions being readily in the range of recovery, SpaceX has only attempted to recover its Falcon boosters after two of the company’s five 2018 launches. If anything, the attachment to Falcon boosters and the apparent melancholy felt by many observers when they are not recovered is a testament to the staggeringly abrupt success of SpaceX’s reusable rocketry program.
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- Falcon Heavy’s side boosters seconds away from near-simultaneous landings at Landing Zones 1 and 2. (SpaceX)
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- GovSat’s Falcon 9 1032 spotted in one piece by Elon Musk after a soft-landing in the Atlantic. (Elon Musk)
Aside from Falcon Heavy’s center core and 1044, each booster expended in the last several months (Iridium-4, GovSat-1, and PAZ) was aging, flight-proven, and nearing the end of its operational life: Block 3 and Block 4 Falcon 9s were simply not designed or expected to fly more than two or three times total. Their seemingly premature deaths were thus a necessary step along the path to Block 5 and truly rapid and cheap booster reuse; perhaps as pragmatic as quite literally making space for new and superior hardware at SpaceX’s many facilities. The demise of Falcon Heavy’s center core nevertheless made for a spectacular video (skip to 1:10, or watch the whole thing…).
The end (of old Falcons) is nigh
Despite the carnage in recent times, the next two weeks are likely to see several more flight-proven Falcon 9s meet their timely, watery demise, or at least complete their final flight in the case of CRS-14.
- Iridium-5 (NET March 29) will be flying atop Booster (B) 1041, previously used for Iridium-3 (Oct. 2017)
- CRS-14 (NET April 2) will make use of B1039, a booster that debuted with the launch of CRS-12 (Aug. 2017)
- Iridium-6/GRACE-FO (NET April 28) was confirmed just yesterday to be flying on B1043, the booster that launched the now-infamous Zuma spysat this January
- Lastly, SES-12 (NET April 30) will likely use B1040, which orbited the USAF’s secretive X-37B spaceplane in Sept. 2017
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- Booster 1041 arrives in Port of San Pedro, CA in Oct. 2017 after successfully completing its first launch. (Pauline Acalin)
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- Booster 1039 lands after successfully launching CRS-12’s Cargo Dragon into orbit. 1039 completed its final mission on Monday afternoon, April 2. (SpaceX)
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- After landing at LZ-1, B1043 was refurbished in approximately four months. (SpaceX)
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- Falcon 9 B1040 returns to LZ-1 after the launch of the USAF’s X-37B spaceplane. (SpaceX)
While more than a little hard to believe, this series of launches over the next 4-6 weeks may see SpaceX’s fleet of flight-proven boosters shrink to no more than two flightworthy cores – perhaps just a single Falcon 9. The launch of NASA’s exoplanet observatory TESS – set to use the brand new Falcon 9 B1045 – will likely see one additional flight after landing at LZ-1 or OCISLY in mid-April. The final flight-proven booster known to exist in a potentially flightworthy state is B1042, famous for its moderate attempt at self-immolation and Roomba-murder (correction: the Roomba murder attempt was actually a few weeks before, during the landing of SES-11’s flight-proven booster) after the successful launch of Koreasat-5A in Oct. 2017. B1042’s future is unknown at this point, however, as the post-landing fire may have damaged the booster beyond repair.
Rounding out SpaceX’s entire fleet of boosters, at least after SES-12, are the flight-proven B1045, the first-ever Block 5 booster (B1046) – flight-proven after Bangabandhu-1, and the second Block 5 booster (B1047). Assuming that Block 5’s first hot-fire testing has gone well at SpaceX’s McGregor, TX facilities, it’s probable that B1048 and perhaps B1049 will roll out of the Hawthorne factory and head to Texas for their own tests between now and then.
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TL;DR: SpaceX is betting heavily on Block 5
The purpose of this brief jaunt through the annals of SpaceX’s rocket fleet and production goals is to demonstrate just how aggressively SpaceX has bet on Block 5 – both on its success as a new and complex technological system and as an unprecedentedly reusable orbital-class rocket. If any design or manufacturing flaws are discovered in the first several Block 5 Falcon 9s, or if Block 5 turns out to be less reusable than SpaceX hopes, the company could well find its manifested launch dates slipping as flightworthy boosters – not satellites – become the bottleneck for access to orbit.
Nevertheless, SpaceX has at least six full-up Falcon 9 boosters in various stages of integration and completion at their Hawthorne factory, as well as 1046 in (or departing) Texas and 1047 presumably on its way there. SpaceX certainly has a strong track record of introducing its many upgraded iterations of Falcon 9 in the past – fingers crossed that that trend continues with Block 5. If SpaceX’s confidence still rings true a month or two from today, a new era of access to space will have truly begun, and SpaceX will be able to quite rapidly refocus a considerable portion of its workforce on getting to Mars.
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- SpaceX Block 5 Falcon9 at McGregor, Texas [Credit: Chris G – NSF via Twitter, Reprinted with permission from NASASpaceflight.com]
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- SpaceX continues a cautious regiment of tests for the newest Falcon 9 upgrade, Block 5. (Reddit /u/HollywoodSX)
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Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
