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SpaceX teases extreme Falcon 9 launch cadence goals in Starship planning doc

Falcon 9 rolls out to Pad 39A in February 2019 for Crew Dragon's orbital launch debut, known as Demo-1. (NASA - Joel Kowsky)

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Published as part of an August 2019 environmental assessment (EA) draft for Starship’s prospective Pad 39A launch facilities, SpaceX revealed plans for a truly mindboggling number of annual Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches by 2024.

As environmental planning documents, the figures should be taken with a large grain of salt and be treated as near-absolute ceilings rather than practical goals. Nevertheless, SpaceX revealed plans for its two Florida launch sites (LC-40 and LC-39A) to ultimately support as many as 70 annual launches of Falcon 9 and Heavy by 2024, less than five years from now.

Simply put, even the most dogmatic fan would have to balk at least a little bit at the numbers SpaceX suggested in its Starship EA draft. More specifically, SpaceX apparently has plans to support as many as 20 annual Falcon 9/Heavy launches from Pad 39A and an incredible 50 annual Falcon 9 launches from LC-40 as early as 2024.

“SpaceX plans to increase the Falcon launch frequency to 20 launches per year from LC-39A and up to 50 launches per year from LC-40 by the year 2024. However, as Starship/Super Heavy launches gradually increase to 24 launches per year, the number of launches of the Falcon would decrease.

–SpaceX, Starship Environmental Assessment Draft, August 2019

SpaceX’s massive Launch Complex 39A is pictured here. (USAF – Hope Geiger, February 2019)
Falcon 9 B1047 lifts off from SpaceX’s LC-40 pad on August 6th, 2019. (SpaceX)

Two obvious options

Given just how significant of an increase a 70-launch annual cadence would be for SpaceX relative to their current record of 21 launches, it’s entirely possible that these numbers are really just a pipe dream included in a pending environmental assessment to hedge bets just in case a similar launch frequency is achieved over the next five years.

On the other hand, it’s possible that SpaceX – just now coming into the ability to reliably achieve a much higher cadence – has coincidentally become payload-constrained at almost the same time, meaning that the company’s customers’ payloads just aren’t ready for launch. This would explain, for example, why SpaceX has only launched 10 times this year when the company had already completed 15 launches by August 2018.

SpaceX completed its 10th launch of 2019 on August 6th, placing the AMOS-17 communications satellite into a healthy orbit. (SpaceX)

Additionally, it can be almost unequivocally assumed that all but 15-20 of those supposed 70 annual launches would come from SpaceX’s own internal demand for Starlink launch capacity. Assuming no improvements between now and 2024, 50 Falcon 9 launches could place as many as 3000 Starlink satellites in orbit in a single year, equivalent to more than 25% of the entire proposed ~11,800-satellite constellation.

Barring regulatory changes to US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and International Telecommunication Union (ITU) requirements, SpaceX must launch at least half of all Starlink satellites (~5900) by November 2024 and finish launching the remaining ~5900 by November 2027. If SpaceX fails to reach those deployment milestones, the company runs the risk of losing Starlink’s domestic and international licenses to operate.

SpaceX successfully launched an unprecedented set of 60 prototype Starlink satellites (internally nicknamed “v0.9”) in May 2019. (SpaceX)

This would help to explain why SpaceX says that it’s planning to reach a maximum cadence of 70 annual launches “by 2024”, given that 2024 will be a pivotal year in the eyes of regulations currently in effect for Starlink.

Starship confusion

As noted in the quote above, SpaceX plans to eventually phase out Falcon 9 and Heavy launches as the company’s next-generation Starship and Super Heavy launch vehicle gradually comes online, proves itself reliable, and begins operational launch activities. According to SpaceX, given just how much mass Starship can nominally launch relative to both Falcon 9 and Heavy, far fewer launches will be needed to accomplish the tasks that would otherwise require several times more launches of SpaceX’s smaller vehicles.

SpaceX’s initial Environmental Assessment for Starship launches from Pad 39A caps the rocket’s maximum cadence at 24 annual launches. Oddly, this directly contradicts the goals set for Starship (formerly BFR) by CEO Elon Musk and SpaceX more generally. By building a launch vehicle that is fully and rapidly reusable, the goal has long been to deliver cheap, aircraft-like access to orbit at a completely unprecedented scale.

Starship was never meant to lower SpaceX’s annual launch cadence. (SpaceX)

This would technically mean that SpaceX could actually dramatically increase its launch cadence without increasing costs, allowing the company to perform currently nonsensical missions where Starship might launch payloads weighing just 5-10% of its total payload capacity. Airline operations routinely do things of a similar nature, sometimes flying just a fraction of their maximum passenger load to destinations for a variety of reasons.

Additionally, SpaceX has consistently indicated that Starship will rely heavily on orbital refueling to accomplish its ultimate deep space ambitions. Previous presentations from Elon Musk have shown that launches to the Mars or Moon with significant payload would require no fewer than five separate tanker launches and orbital refuelings, all of which would classify as one of the 24 annual launches SpaceX has described in its August 2019 EA draft. On their own, launching two Starships to Mars with 100 tons of payload each would require no fewer than 10-12 launches.

A 2017 overview of a Starship (then BFS) mission to Mars. (SpaceX)

Ultimately, it’s unwise to draw any substantial conclusions from an Environmental Assessment like the one the above information has been taken from. This 39A-specific EA also ignores the possibility of a similar launch facility being developed in Boca Chica, Texas, which SpaceX explicitly acknowledges.

This particular draft is also the first Starship-related EA ever filed by SpaceX, and the company may thus be treating it more as a bare minimum with the intention of eventually pursuing far more ambitious launch rates once Starship has been established.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk commends Tesla team on successful Robotaxi launch

Tesla CEO Elon Musk commended the company on the successful launch of Robotaxi.

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NORAD and USNORTHCOM Public Affairs, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Tesla CEO Elon Musk commented on the company’s launch of the Robotaxi platform, which officially went live to a small group on Sunday in Austin, Texas.

It is the first time Tesla has offered driverless rides through the ride-hailing platform it has worked to activate for several years, and it was overwhelmingly successful based on early reviews.

The launch was coupled with the release of the first-ever looks at the Tesla Robotaxi app, which does more than allow riders to summon vehicles for transportation. It also allows the rider to adjust climate settings in the car before it arrives for a comfortable ride, and it will sync entertainment and streaming settings to keep occupants entertained.

Tesla Robotaxi riders tout ‘smooth’ experience in first reviews of driverless service launch

The first rides are being performed with a safety monitor in the passenger’s seat. These monitors have no control over the vehicle, and are there just to ensure smooth operation.

The first reviews called rides “smooth” and “comfortable,” and commended Tesla for its hard work over the past few years to make this happen. Many were impressed with the cars’ ability to keep pedestrians safe, avoid congested parking lots, and the efficiency of the rides, as the time from the ride request to the Robotaxi accepting the ride was extremely fast.

Musk has been at the forefront of this operation for a decade, as Tesla has been working to release a version of the Robotaxi through the development of Full Self-Driving. This has been an effort that included seeking top-tier engineering talent and taking incredible leaps of faith, including switching to a Vision-only approach for Full Self-Driving.

Musk commended the Tesla team for its hard work:

It’s truly an incredible accomplishment, as many considered Robotaxi a “failure” despite it not even being rolled out. In May, we reported on media outlets calling the Robotaxi rollout a total failure, despite Tesla always maintaining the launch would happen in June:

Tesla Robotaxi deemed a total failure by media — even though it hasn’t been released

Hundreds of rides have already been taken, and there have not been many complaints. It’s an incredible jump forward for Tesla.

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Tesla Robotaxi riders tout ‘smooth’ experience in first reviews of driverless service launch

The first reviews of Tesla Robotaxi are in, and those riders are impressed and astounded with the smooth and comfortable nature of the service.

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Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | X

Tesla Robotaxi riders are touting their awesome experiences in their first rides using the automaker’s new driverless ride-hailing service, which launched to a limited number of people yesterday for the first time.

On Sunday, Tesla officially launched Robotaxi, its driverless ride-hailing service, in downtown Austin. A select group of people were chosen to receive early access to the program, as well as the new Robotaxi app, which is used to request a ride and will sync everything from climate preferences to streaming settings with each pickup.

Tesla officially launches Robotaxi service with no driver

Teslarati gained access to the Early Access riders program and the Robotaxi app, giving us a first-hand look at the experience. We will be in Austin soon to test out the Robotaxi fleet for ourselves.

However, those who were there for the initial rides on Sunday had nothing but great things to say. Hundreds of rides were taken during the first hours of the Robotaxi program, and neither the company nor the riders reported any issues.

Here’s what people said about their experiences:

  • “Extremely smooth stops,” and great awareness of road conditions, including pedestrians, speed bumps, and busy parking lots, were all handled with ease:

  • Safe navigation around pedestrians who walked just off the sidewalk into the road:

  • “Just as good as it is during the daytime” at night. There were no changes to report by riders who took rides during the day and evening:

  • Avoided expensive and stressful parking at local tourist hotspots like Terry Black’s Barbeque:

  • “Comfortable and similar to existing Tesla cars with FSD,” intuitive and “surreal” experience:

  • The app is quicker than other ride-sharing services. When a destination is chosen, Robotaxi is already on the way to your location:

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Tesla Robotaxi rollout proves that Elon Musk still delivers, even if it’s late

Tesla is also still the company that makes the impossible feel late.

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Credit: Tesla

It took a long time, but Tesla has finally successfully rolled out its dedicated Robotaxi service in Austin this weekend. The initial rollout only involved a small fleet of cars operating in a small geofenced area in Texas, but it is still significant. 

It does, if any, prove that Elon Musk is still capable of delivering on his promises, even if they are late. Tesla is also still the company that makes the impossible feel late.

Finally, a Rollout

Elon Musk has been predicting a Robotaxi rollout for years, so much so that even avid Tesla supporters have grown quite wary of his constant predictions. After a while, Elon Musk himself admitted that he has become the boy who cried FSD, though he still maintained that self-driving was really just around the corner.

This past weekend, Musk’s predictions finally came true. Actual paying customers used Tesla’s dedicated Robotaxi service for a small flat fee of $4.20 per ride. Elon Musk seemed quite happy with the Robotaxi’s initial launch, as evidenced by his congratulatory message to the Tesla AI team on X.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1936876178356490546
https://twitter.com/aelluswamy/status/1936865682810946035

No More Tesla Vision Debates

One thing that is evident in Tesla’s initial Robotaxi rollout in Austin was the fact that the debate surrounding Tesla’s vision-only approach is completely gone now. With actual Robotaxis operating around Austin, there are no more questions about whether cars can navigate city streets on their own using only AI and cameras. They can, and safely too, at least based on Tesla’s initial fleet of Robotaxis.

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https://twitter.com/ItsKimJava/status/1936927640268484909
https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1936997202880081950

The Beauty of Normalcy

The Robotaxi rides from Tesla owners who were fortunate enough to experience the first driverless rides from the EV maker’s fleet were quite uneventful. Comments on social media platforms such as X observed that the Robotaxis operated safely and cautiously, and their driving was actually smoother than some human drivers. 

That may not sound very exciting at all, but that’s the beauty of it. Tesla’s Robotaxi service is designed to look and feel natural to people. And so far, it appears that Tesla is accomplishing this with its Robotaxi rollout.

https://twitter.com/DrKnowItAll16/status/1936992009685700663
https://twitter.com/DirtyTesLa/status/1936999390100496443
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