Elon Musk has stated that a self-sustaining human settlement on Mars could be established in 25-30 years, provided launch capacity increases dramatically in the coming decades. 

Speaking at the All-In Summit, the SpaceX CEO said building a self-sufficient colony depends on exponential growth in “tonnage to Mars” with each launch window, highlighting Starship’s role as the company’s pathway to interplanetary initiatives.

Mars settlement goals

Musk noted that true self-sufficiency requires Mars to develop “all the ingredients of civilization,” from food production to microchip manufacturing. Starship Version 3 is expected to support the first uncrewed Mars test flights, while future iterations could reach 466 feet in height and deliver larger payloads critical for settlement. Ultimately, Musk stated that an aggressive timeline for a city on Mars could be as short as 30 years, as noted in a Space.com report.

“I think it can be done in 30 years, provided there’s an exponential increase in the tonnage to Mars with each successive Mars transfer window, which is every two years. Every two years, the planets align and you can transfer to Mars. 

“I think in roughly 15, but maybe as few as 10, but 10-15-ish Mars transfer windows. If you’re seeing exponential increases in the tonnage to Mars with each Mars transfer window, then it should be possible to make Mars self-sustaining in about call it roughly 25 years,” Musk said. 

Starship’s role

Starship has flown in a fully stacked configuration ten times, most recently in August when it completed its first payload deployment in orbit. The next flight will close out the Version 2 program before transitioning to Starship Version 3, featuring Raptor 3 engines and a redesigned structure capable of lifting over 100 tons to orbit.

While SpaceX has demonstrated Super Heavy booster reuse, Ship reusability remains in development. Musk noted that the heat shield is still the biggest technical hurdle, as no orbital vehicle has yet achieved rapid, full reuse.

“For full reusability of the Ship, there’s still a lot of work that remains on the heat shield. No one’s ever made a fully reusable orbital heat shield. The shuttle heat shield had to go through nine months of repair after every flight,” he said. 

SpaceX is working with microchip manufacturers to integrate satellite-connectivity hardware into smartphones, advancing its plan for direct-to-device services through Starlink. 

The move follows the company’s $17 billion acquisition of wireless spectrum from EchoStar Corp., a deal that positions SpaceX to operate more independently of traditional telecom carriers. 

President Gwynne Shotwell outlined the effort during a space industry conference in Paris this week, as noted in a Bloomberg News report.

Starlink direct-to-device

Starlink currently serves millions of customers in over 100 countries, primarily through ground-based dishes. The company, however, is now expanding into satellite-to-cell service, which should enable unmodified phones to connect directly with orbiting satellites. While SpaceX has a partnership with T-Mobile US, the EchoStar spectrum purchase gives it more control to negotiate with global carriers on its own terms.

“We’re working with chip manufacturers to get the proper chips in phones,” the SpaceX President stated. “We will now be initiating discussions with telcos in a different way now. Now it’s our spectrum, but we want to work with them, almost providing capacity and wholesaling capacity to their customers.”

The company plans to launch satellites capable of supporting its direct-to-device business within two years, with early mobile phone testing expected by late 2026.

Starship program continues test flights

Shotwell also addressed SpaceX’s Starship program, which recently completed its 10th test flight in August. She said the mission met all objectives, providing a critical morale boost to teams after a challenging development year. 

“My Starship team needed that win,” Shotwell noted. “Development programs always are kind of a 24/7 operation, and I was really pleased for them.”

SpaceX is planning to fly one more iteration of the current Starship prototype, known as V2, before transitioning to the next-generation V3 vehicle. That version, expected to debut late this year or early 2026, is designed to be more capable and support eventual crewed missions to the Moon and Mars. 

“The V3, which we want to fly hopefully late this year, but maybe early next year, is really the vehicle that could take humans to the moon and Mars,” Shotwell stated.

A U.S. district court judge has dismissed a lawsuit brought by conservation groups challenging the Federal Aviation Administration’s approval of SpaceX’s expanded rocket launch operations in Boca Chica, Texas. 

The ruling, issued Monday, found that the FAA had met its obligations in reviewing the potential environmental effects of Starship launches.

FAA review withstands legal challenge

The lawsuit centered on whether the FAA properly assessed the impact of SpaceX’s operations on endangered wildlife, including ocelots, jaguarundis, and Kemp’s Ridley sea turtles, as noted in a report from The Guardian. The plaintiffs argued that noise, light pollution, and construction activity degraded the surrounding habitat, which also serves as nesting grounds for threatened shorebirds.

The lawsuit cited SpaceX’s April 2023 Starship test, which destroyed its launchpad and scattered debris across a large area. The blast reportedly ignited a grassfire and damaged wildlife habitats, including a bobwhite quail nest.

Judge Carl Nichols, for his part, ruled that the FAA had satisfied its obligation“to take a hard look at the effects of light on nearby wildlife.” The decision effectively cleared a regulatory hurdle for SpaceX, which has been working to expand Starship launch activity at its Boca Chica facility.

A continued ramp

SpaceX continues to scale its operations nationwide. Beyond Starship, the company is also seeking approval to nearly double Falcon rocket launches from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, from 50 annually to 95. 

Former President Trump has also shared his intention to increase U.S. launch capacity, setting a target for substantial growth by 2030. Considering that SpaceX is by far the world’s dominant launch provider, Trump’s support for more launches will likely benefit the private space company.

For now, at least, the ruling should allow continued expansion at a time when Starship remains central to long-term goals such as Mars missions and NASA’s Artemis program.