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SpaceX hints at mystery Falcon 9 missions with record breaking launch target

Falcon 9 B1046 is pictured here landing after its third successful launch, December 2018. (SpaceX)

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Speaking at the 2019 Smallsat Symposium, SpaceX Vice President of Commercial Sales Jonathan Hofeller announced that the company will try to break the launch record it set last year in 2019. That record stands at 21 successful missions, while President and COO Gwynne Shotwell stated in a May 2018 interview that she was anticipating 24-28 launches in 2018 and ~18 in 2019.

Ranging from Crew Dragon transporting astronauts and a duo of Falcon Heavy missions to perhaps ten commercial satellite launches, 2019 will undoubtedly be full of major events for SpaceX. However, SpaceX’s publicly-available launch manifest suggests that there will be no more than 18 government and commercial missions ready for the company to place in orbit before 2019 is out, implying that Hofeller may be hinting at launches that are not yet public.

In just the last two years (24 months), SpaceX has successfully launched Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy an astounding 40 times, averaging approximately one launch every 2.5 weeks. In 2017, SpaceX demolished its own prior cadence record with 18 launches, a record the company’s exceptional workforce summarily proceeded to beat in 2018 with 21 successful missions launched. A vast majority of those 40 missions (27 to be precise) were the result of competitive, commercial contracts that SpaceX has been extremely successful at winning, thanks largely to the nearly unbeatable pricing of Falcon 9 and Heavy.

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Much like most other launch providers, SpaceX plays its manifest extremely close to the chest, rarely revealing more than a blanket status update. For example, SpaceX’s website states that it has “has secured over 100 missions to its manifest, representing over $12 billion on contract.” Thanks to the general drought of official manifest information, the closest approximation to a real SpaceX manifest has traditionally been maintained by members of spaceflight fan communities like /r/SpaceX and NASASpaceflight.com, using the best aspects of organized crowdsourcing to create an extremely reliable snapshot of launch contracts scheduled within ~24 months.

However, compared to SpaceX’s claimed manifest of 100+ missions at an average cost per launch of ~$120M (twice Falcon 9’s $62M list price), crowdsourced SpaceX manifests – based on mostly public information – show fewer than 60 possible launch contracts between now and the end of 2024, a majority of which are for the US government (Crew and Cargo Dragon, Air Force GPS launches, and a few NASA spacecraft). Given SpaceX’s confident use of “secured” and “on contract”, the massive gap between public manifests and SpaceX’s claims leaves more than 40 launches almost completely in the dark.

A Big Falcon Mystery

Hofeller’s Feb. 6th comment is thus just a tiny taste of SpaceX’s potential mystery manifest, indicating that the company has more than 21 payloads to launch in 2019 while public info reveals no more than 17-18 likely to be ready. Where, then, might Hofeller find an extra 4-5 missions that public observers would not normally be aware of?

The simplest answer least reminiscent of a conspiracy theory is Starlink, SpaceX’s global constellation of at least 4425 satellites. While it would be an extraordinary achievement, Reuters reported in October 2018 that CEO Elon Musk had gone as far as firing multiple senior managers of the young satellite program to install new managers with a singleminded goal: begin launching operational Starlink satellites by mid-2019. A little over six months after Musk’s Starlink shake-up, SpaceX has pivoted towards rapidly building and launching around ~1500 first-generation satellites with more conservative capabilities to lower orbits relative to the original Starlink specification.

 

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SpaceX also received a major Starlink contract from the US Air Force Research Laboratory worth almost $29 million, $19.1M of which was dispersed to SpaceX in October 2018. As of late 2018, the company’s Starlink branch had already pivoted toward ramping up production of the first several batches of operational Starlink satellites. According to a number of employees, SpaceX’s first two Starlink prototype satellites – known as Tintin A and B – were a programmatic success and continue to operate in orbit today after proving out a number of critical Starlink technologies. As such, it’s not out of the question for operational Starlink launches to begin as early as mid-2019, although Musk’s aggressive schedule is likely more than a little overly optimistic.

Assuming Starlink is greeted with a perfect production ramp and the first 10-20 spacecraft make it to orbit in good health by June 2019, it’s at least not inconceivable that a second and third launch could follow, perhaps with a 3-month launch cadence (June/September/December). The chances of this happening are probably about as slim as they come, but it does offer one possible way for SpaceX’s apparent ~18-launch manifest to jump up to 21 or more missions. The next most probable route to 21+ launches involves at least one or two Starlink-specific launches, followed by another one or two launches for a secretive US government customer like the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO).

In January 2018, SpaceX successfully launched a spacecraft called Zuma with no known customer aside from a generic US military agency. Despite an ambiguous potential failure of the satellite – attributed to a Northrop Grumman deployment mechanism – just days after launch, a variety of anonymous sources indicated that Zuma was just the first in a series of new military satellites with a focus on SpaceX as the primary launch provider. The value of the intensely-secretive program was estimated to be in the billions of dollars, implying a veritable constellation of mystery satellites that could provide SpaceX several additional launch contracts.

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Now a little over 12 months distant from Zuma’s bizarre debut, it’s conceivable that the next phase of the secretive satellite program is scheduled sometime in 2019. Ultimately, the general public is unlikely to learn about any potential mystery SpaceX launches until they are imminent, barring comments from executives or sourced leaks making their way into the news. For now, we wait.


Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes!

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package hits first adversity from proxy firm

ISS said the size of the pay package will enable Musk to have access to “extraordinarily high pay opportunities over the next ten years,” and it will have an impact on future packages because it will “reduce the board’s ability to meaningfully adjust future pay levels.”

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package, which was proposed by the company last month, has hit its first bit of adversity from proxy advisory firm Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS).

Musk has called the firm “ISIS,” a play on its name relating it to the terrorist organization, in the past.

The pay package aims to lock in Musk to the CEO role at Tesla for the next decade, as it will only be paid in full if he is able to unlock each tranche based on company growth, which will reward shareholders.

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However, the sum is incredibly large and would give Musk the ability to become the first trillionaire in history, based on his holdings. This is precisely why ISS is advising shareholders to vote against the pay plan.

The group said that Musk’s pay package will lock him in, which is the goal of the Board, and it is especially important to do this because of his “track record and vision.”

However, it also said the size of the pay package will enable Musk to have access to “extraordinarily high pay opportunities over the next ten years,” and it will have an impact on future packages because it will “reduce the board’s ability to meaningfully adjust future pay levels.”

The release from ISS called the size of Musk’s pay package “astronomical” and said its design could continue to pay the CEO massive amounts of money for even partially achieving the goals. This could end up in potential dilution for existing investors.

If Musk were to reach all of the tranches, Tesla’s market cap could reach up to $8.5 trillion, which would make it the most valuable company in the world.

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Tesla has made its own attempts to woo shareholders into voting for the pay package, which it feels is crucial not only for retaining Musk but also for continuing to create value for shareholders.

Tesla launched an ad for Elon Musk’s pay package on Paramount+

Musk has also said he would like to have more ownership control of Tesla, so he would not have as much of an issue with who he calls “activist shareholders.”

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Tesla is adding an interesting feature to its centerscreen in a coming update

In a recent dissection of coding, Tesla hacker green noticed that the company is bringing in screenshare with Software Update 2025.38

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is adding an interesting feature to its center touchscreen in a coming update, according to a noted hacker.

In a recent dissection of coding, Tesla hacker green noticed that the company is bringing in screenshare with Software Update 2025.38. Details on the use case are slim, but he said the feature would export the car screen so it could be viewed remotely.

It would bring up a notification on the screen, along with a four-digit pin that would link the two together:

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As previously mentioned, the use case is unclear, but there are some ideas. One of which is for remote support, which is something Apple has used to help resolve issues with its products.

Support staff and employees routinely tap into customers’ screens to help resolve issues, so this could be a way Tesla could also use it.

This seems especially relevant with Robotaxi, as the screen might be a crucial part of resolving customer complaints when there is no employee in the car.

Additionally, it seems as if it will not be exclusive to those owners who have newer vehicles that utilize the AMD chip. Intel will get support with the new feature as well, according to what green has noticed in the coding.

Finally, it could also be used with all sorts of content creation, especially as Full Self-Driving videos and what the vehicle sees in Driver Visualization.

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As it is released, Tesla will likely release more information regarding what the screensharing mode will be used for.

For right now, many owners are wondering where it could actually work and what advantages it will offer for owners as well as the company itself.

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SpaceX posts Starship booster feat that’s so nutty, it doesn’t even look real

The Super Heavy booster’s feat was so impressive that the whole maneuver almost looked like it was AI-generated.

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Credit: SpaceX/X

SpaceX has shared a video of a remarkable feat achieved by Starship’s Super Heavy booster during its 11th flight test.

The Super Heavy booster’s feat was so impressive that the whole maneuver, which was captured on video, almost looked like it was AI-generated.

Super Heavy’s picture perfect hover

As could be seen in the video shared by SpaceX, Starship’s Super Heavy booster, which is nearly 400 feet tall, smoothly returned to Earth and hovered above the Gulf of America for a few seconds before it went for its soft water landing. The booster’s picture-perfect maneuver before splashing down all but capped a near-flawless mission for Starship, which is about to enter its V3 era with Flight 12.

The booster’s balance and stability were so perfect that some users on X joked that the whole thing looked AI-generated. Considering the size of Super Heavy, as well as the fact that the booster was returning from space, the hovering display all but showed that SpaceX is dead serious about keeping its dominant lead in the spaceflight sector.

Starship V2’s curtain call

As noted in a Space.com report, Flight Test 11 achieved every major goal SpaceX had set for the mission, including deploying Starlink mass simulators, relighting Raptor engines in space, and executing a stable reentry for both the Starship Upper Stage and the Super Heavy booster. The feat also marked the second time a Super Heavy booster has been reflown, a milestone in SpaceX’s quest to make the entire Starship system fully reusable.

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Starship’s V2 vehicle will now give way to the upgraded Starship V3, which is designed for faster turnaround and higher payload capacity. The Starship program is expected to pursue even more aggressive targets in the coming months as well, with Elon Musk stating on social media platform X that SpaceX will attempt a tower catch for Starship Upper Stage as early as spring 2026.

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