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SpaceX hints at mystery Falcon 9 missions with record breaking launch target

Falcon 9 B1046 is pictured here landing after its third successful launch, December 2018. (SpaceX)

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Speaking at the 2019 Smallsat Symposium, SpaceX Vice President of Commercial Sales Jonathan Hofeller announced that the company will try to break the launch record it set last year in 2019. That record stands at 21 successful missions, while President and COO Gwynne Shotwell stated in a May 2018 interview that she was anticipating 24-28 launches in 2018 and ~18 in 2019.

Ranging from Crew Dragon transporting astronauts and a duo of Falcon Heavy missions to perhaps ten commercial satellite launches, 2019 will undoubtedly be full of major events for SpaceX. However, SpaceX’s publicly-available launch manifest suggests that there will be no more than 18 government and commercial missions ready for the company to place in orbit before 2019 is out, implying that Hofeller may be hinting at launches that are not yet public.

In just the last two years (24 months), SpaceX has successfully launched Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy an astounding 40 times, averaging approximately one launch every 2.5 weeks. In 2017, SpaceX demolished its own prior cadence record with 18 launches, a record the company’s exceptional workforce summarily proceeded to beat in 2018 with 21 successful missions launched. A vast majority of those 40 missions (27 to be precise) were the result of competitive, commercial contracts that SpaceX has been extremely successful at winning, thanks largely to the nearly unbeatable pricing of Falcon 9 and Heavy.

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Much like most other launch providers, SpaceX plays its manifest extremely close to the chest, rarely revealing more than a blanket status update. For example, SpaceX’s website states that it has “has secured over 100 missions to its manifest, representing over $12 billion on contract.” Thanks to the general drought of official manifest information, the closest approximation to a real SpaceX manifest has traditionally been maintained by members of spaceflight fan communities like /r/SpaceX and NASASpaceflight.com, using the best aspects of organized crowdsourcing to create an extremely reliable snapshot of launch contracts scheduled within ~24 months.

However, compared to SpaceX’s claimed manifest of 100+ missions at an average cost per launch of ~$120M (twice Falcon 9’s $62M list price), crowdsourced SpaceX manifests – based on mostly public information – show fewer than 60 possible launch contracts between now and the end of 2024, a majority of which are for the US government (Crew and Cargo Dragon, Air Force GPS launches, and a few NASA spacecraft). Given SpaceX’s confident use of “secured” and “on contract”, the massive gap between public manifests and SpaceX’s claims leaves more than 40 launches almost completely in the dark.

A Big Falcon Mystery

Hofeller’s Feb. 6th comment is thus just a tiny taste of SpaceX’s potential mystery manifest, indicating that the company has more than 21 payloads to launch in 2019 while public info reveals no more than 17-18 likely to be ready. Where, then, might Hofeller find an extra 4-5 missions that public observers would not normally be aware of?

The simplest answer least reminiscent of a conspiracy theory is Starlink, SpaceX’s global constellation of at least 4425 satellites. While it would be an extraordinary achievement, Reuters reported in October 2018 that CEO Elon Musk had gone as far as firing multiple senior managers of the young satellite program to install new managers with a singleminded goal: begin launching operational Starlink satellites by mid-2019. A little over six months after Musk’s Starlink shake-up, SpaceX has pivoted towards rapidly building and launching around ~1500 first-generation satellites with more conservative capabilities to lower orbits relative to the original Starlink specification.

 

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SpaceX also received a major Starlink contract from the US Air Force Research Laboratory worth almost $29 million, $19.1M of which was dispersed to SpaceX in October 2018. As of late 2018, the company’s Starlink branch had already pivoted toward ramping up production of the first several batches of operational Starlink satellites. According to a number of employees, SpaceX’s first two Starlink prototype satellites – known as Tintin A and B – were a programmatic success and continue to operate in orbit today after proving out a number of critical Starlink technologies. As such, it’s not out of the question for operational Starlink launches to begin as early as mid-2019, although Musk’s aggressive schedule is likely more than a little overly optimistic.

Assuming Starlink is greeted with a perfect production ramp and the first 10-20 spacecraft make it to orbit in good health by June 2019, it’s at least not inconceivable that a second and third launch could follow, perhaps with a 3-month launch cadence (June/September/December). The chances of this happening are probably about as slim as they come, but it does offer one possible way for SpaceX’s apparent ~18-launch manifest to jump up to 21 or more missions. The next most probable route to 21+ launches involves at least one or two Starlink-specific launches, followed by another one or two launches for a secretive US government customer like the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO).

In January 2018, SpaceX successfully launched a spacecraft called Zuma with no known customer aside from a generic US military agency. Despite an ambiguous potential failure of the satellite – attributed to a Northrop Grumman deployment mechanism – just days after launch, a variety of anonymous sources indicated that Zuma was just the first in a series of new military satellites with a focus on SpaceX as the primary launch provider. The value of the intensely-secretive program was estimated to be in the billions of dollars, implying a veritable constellation of mystery satellites that could provide SpaceX several additional launch contracts.

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Now a little over 12 months distant from Zuma’s bizarre debut, it’s conceivable that the next phase of the secretive satellite program is scheduled sometime in 2019. Ultimately, the general public is unlikely to learn about any potential mystery SpaceX launches until they are imminent, barring comments from executives or sourced leaks making their way into the news. For now, we wait.


Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes!

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk sends stern warning to Tesla vandals, doubters

Elon Musk sent another warning to vandals that have attacked Tesla for political reasons.

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NORAD and USNORTHCOM Public Affairs, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Elon Musk has sent a stern warning to Tesla vandals, doubters, and attackers, who have subjected the company and its owners to political violence through arson and other modes of retaliation.

Over the past few months, Tesla showrooms and vehicles have been hit with numerous attacks from those who have opposed Musk and his political involvement with the Trump Administration. Although Musk has stepped back from his role within government significantly since the start of May, the company is still looked at as a political target.

While the White House has put a clear-cut line on the acts, calling them domestic terrorism and holding those responsible for the damage they have done, there are still numerous and daily instances of keying cars or worse.

Yesterday, Musk continued to send stern warnings to those who oppose Tesla and choose to handle their distaste for the company with violence and vandalism. In a Bloomberg interview at the Qatar Economic Forum, Musk was asked if he took what has happened to Tesla “over the past few months personally.”

Musk replied simply but sternly: “Yes.”

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He went on to say that not only will those who vandalized the company and its products owned by consumers be held to the fullest extent of the law, but also those who fund it.

Musk also said during a CNBC interview yesterday that very few people buy a company’s products because of the CEO’s political beliefs, and many people do not even know where those CEOs stand on various social issues.

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Although Musk has gone out of his way to be transparent about his beliefs, he has a valid point. He obviously felt that, because of his influence, he held a duty to uphold American values and protect what he felt was an attack on free speech and human rights.

Disagreeing with Musk and his political stances is totally reasonable, but damaging products that consumers bought from his companies is not impacting him directly. Instead, it is making consumers’ lives more difficult.

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Tesla Model 3 gets perfect 5-star Euro NCAP safety rating

Tesla prides itself on producing some of the safest vehicles on the road today.

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Credit: Tesla Singapore/X

Tesla prides itself on producing some of the safest vehicles on the road today. Based on recent findings from the Euro NCAP, the 2025 Model 3 sedan continues this tradition, with the vehicle earning a 5-star overall safety rating from the agency.

Standout Safety Features

As could be seen on the Euro NCAP’s official website, the 2025 Model 3 achieved an overall score of 90% for Adult Occupants, 93% for Child Occupants, 89% for Vulnerable Road Users, and 87% for Safety Assist. This rating, as per the Euro NCAP, applies to the Model 3 Rear Wheel Drive, Long Range Rear Wheel Drive, Long Range All Wheel Drive, and Performance All Wheel Drive.

The Euro NCAP highlighted a number of the Model 3’s safety features, such as its Active Hood, which automatically lifts during collisions to mitigate injury risks to vulnerable road users, and Automatic Emergency Braking System, which now detects motorcycles through an upgraded algorithm. The Euro NCAP also mentioned the Model 3’s feature that prevents initial door opening if someone is approaching the vehicle’s blind spot.

Standout Safety Features

In a post on its official Tesla Europe & Middle East account, Tesla noted that the company is also introducing new features that make the Model 3 even safer than it is today. These include functions like head-on collision avoidance and crossing traffic AEB, as well as Child Left Alone Detection, among other safety features.

“We also introduced new features to improve Safety Assist functionality even further – like head-on collision avoidance & crossing traffic AEB – to detect & respond to potential hazards faster, helping avoid accidents in the first place. 

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“Lastly, we released Child Left Alone Detection – if an unattended child is detected, the vehicle will turn on HVAC & alert caregivers via phone app & the vehicle itself (flashing lights/audible alert). Because we’re using novel in-cabin radar sensing, your Tesla is able to distinguish between adult vs child – reduced annoyance to adults, yet critical safety feature for kids,” Tesla wrote in its post on X.

Below is the Euro NCAP’s safety report on the 2025 Tesla Model 3 sedan.

Euroncap 2025 Tesla Model 3 Datasheet by Simon Alvarez on Scribd

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USDOT Secretary visits Tesla Giga Texas, hints at national autonomous vehicle standards

The Transportation Secretary also toured the factory’s production lines and spoke with CEO Elon Musk.

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Credit: Elon Musk/X

United States Department of Transportation (USDOT) Secretary Sean Duffy recently visited Tesla’s Gigafactory Texas complex, where he toured the factory’s production lines and spoke with CEO Elon Musk. In a video posted following his Giga Texas visit, Duffy noted that he believes there should be a national standard for autonomous vehicles in the United States.

Duffy’s Giga Texas Visit

As could be seen in videos of his Giga Texas visit, the Transportation Secretary seemed to appreciate the work Tesla has been doing to put the United States in the forefront of innovation. “Tesla is one of the many companies helping our country reach new heights. USDOT will be right there all the way to make sure Americans stay safe,” Duffy wrote in a post on X. 

He also praised Tesla for its autonomous vehicle program, highlighting that “We need American companies to keep innovating so we can outcompete the rest of the world.”

National Standard

While speaking with Tesla CEO Elon Musk, the Transportation Secretary stated that other autonomous ride-hailing companies have been lobbying for a national standard for self-driving cars. Musk shared the sentiment, stating that “It’d be wonderful for the United States to have a national set of rules for autonomous driving as opposed to 50 independent sets of rules on a state-by-state rules basis.”

Duffy agreed with the CEO’s point, stating that, “You can’t have 50 different rules for 50 different states. You need one standard.” He also noted that the Transportation Department has asked autonomous vehicle companies to submit data. By doing so, the USDOT could develop a standard for the entire United States, allowing self-driving cars to operate in a manner that is natural and safe.

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