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SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy launch and landing could be more than a year away
According to comments made by US Air Force officials prior to SpaceX’s latest Falcon Heavy launch, the payload assigned to the military’s first fully-certified Falcon Heavy has been swapped with another, although the mission’s late-2020 launch target remains relatively unchanged.
This new information comes on the heels of the June 25th launch of Space Test Program 2 (STP-2), SpaceX’s third successful Falcon Heavy mission and a huge milestone for the rocket’s future as a competitive option for US military launches. Perhaps most importantly, it confirms – barring a surprise launch contract or internal Starlink mission – that Falcon Heavy’s next (and fourth) launch is unlikely to occur until late next year, a gap of at least 15-17 months.
Announced roughly four months after Falcon Heavy’s inaugural February 2018 launch debut, the USAF contracted with SpaceX to launch the ~6350 kg (14,000 lb) AFSPC-52 satellite no earlier than (NET) September 2020. In February 2019, Department of Defense contract announcements revealed that SpaceX had been awarded three military launch contracts, two for the National Reconnaissance Office (NROL-85 & NROL-87) and one for the USAF (AFSPC-44), all tentatively scheduled to launch in 2021.
First reported by Spaceflight Now, Col. Robert Bongiovi – director of the launch enterprise systems directorate at the Air Force’s Space and Missile Systems Center (AFSMC) – recently indicated that AFSPC-44 – not AFSPC-52 – is now scheduled to be the US military’s first post-certification Falcon Heavy launch. 52 and 44 have essentially swapped spots, with AFSPC-44 moving forward to NET Q4 (fall) 2020 while AFSPC-52 has been delayed to NET Q2 (spring) 2021.
The trouble with launch gaps
Although Bongiovi did not explicitly state that AFSPC-44 will be SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy launch, there are no publicly-disclosed missions set to launch on the rocket in the interim. That could theoretically change, especially if SpaceX has plans to launch the massive rocket in support of an internal Starlink mission or even something more exotic, but the loss of both Block 5 center core B1055 and B1057 means that the company will have to build an entirely new center core.
SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy lead times are far superior to competitor ULA’s Delta IV Heavy production line, but the process of manufacturing new center cores is still quite lengthy. Critically, Falcon Heavy Block 5 center cores require strengthened octawebs, custom interstages, and propellant tanks that are significantly thicker than those used on Falcon 9. For all intents and purposes, a center core is a totally different rocket relative to a Falcon 9 booster, the latter being SpaceX’s primary focus at the company’s assembly line-style Hawthorne factory. It’s theoretically possible for a dedicated Falcon Heavy center core build to be expedited or leapfrogged forward in the production queue, but most long-lead Falcon 9 booster hardware physically cannot be redirected to speed up center core production.
Unless SpaceX was already in the process of building a new center core prior B1057’s unsuccessful landing attempt, it’s safe to assume that the next custom Falcon Heavy booster is unlikely to be completed until early 2020, if not later. In theory, this means that Falcon Heavy could be dormant for no less than 16 months between STP-2 and its next launch. Traditionally, that sort of lengthy gap between launches has been frowned upon by NASA, ULA, and oversight groups like GAO. If a given rocket doesn’t launch for a year or more, it can potentially pose a risk to reliability and raise costs as its production and launch teams have no satisfactory way to fully preserve their technical expertise.
This can be compared to attempting to become an expert at a musical instrument while only having access to said instrument one or two months a year, essentially impossible. In fact, at one point, NASA hoped to require its Space Launch System (SLS) rocket be able to launch no less than once per year, partly motivated by a desire to mitigate some of the deterioration that can follow extremely low launch cadences. Years later, financial constraints and years upon years of delays and budget overruns have made such a cadence effectively impossible for SLS/Orion, but the fact remains that launching a rocket just once every 18-24 months is likely to inflate both costs and risks.
Thankfully, SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy could scarcely be more different than NASA’s SLS and the retired Space Shuttle it derives most of its hardware from. Even if all things are held equal and not flying a Falcon Heavy center core for 16+ months increases risk and cost, center cores are still heavily derived from Falcon 9 booster technology, including plumbing, avionics, attitude control thrusters, Merlin 1D engines, landing legs, and launch facilities.
Furthermore, the center core is just one of five distinct assemblies that make up a given Falcon Heavy. Both side boosters are effectively Falcon 9 Block 5 boosters with nose cones instead of interstages and slight modifications to support booster attachment hardware, while the upper stage and payload fairing are the same for all Falcon launches. In other words, SpaceX’s workforce will continue to build, launch, land, and reuse dozens of Falcon 9 boosters – as well as upper stages payload fairings – between now and Falcon Heavy Flight 4, even if it’s NET Q4 2020. In a worst-case scenario, SpaceX production and launch staff will be unfamiliar and inexperienced with maybe 20% of Falcon Heavy – at least in a very rough sense. Even then, much of that unfamiliarity may still be tempered by the fact that Falcon Heavy center cores share a large amount of commonality with the Falcon 9 first stages SpaceX’s workforce will remain deeply familiar with.
Indeed, Falcon Heavy’s second launch has already demonstrated this to some extent, occurring without issue more than 14 months after the rocket’s inaugural launch. It seems that the only real loss incurred by a ~16-month delay between Flights 3 and 4 will be having to wait another year (or more) to witness Falcon Heavy’s next launch.
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Tesla has made two big interior changes to several Model Y vehicles in its lineup, and the changes come just as the new model year begins production.
Last year, Tesla launched the Model Y Standard, which separated the previous models into the “Premium” category. The Standard vehicles lack several features, including more premium interior materials, acoustic-lined glass, and storage.
@teslarati There are some BIG differences between the Tesla Model Y Standard and Tesla Model Y Premium #tesla #teslamodely ♬ Sia – Xeptemper
The Model Y “Premium” trims are now getting several new upgrades, which come after the company launched a seven-seat configuration of the vehicle last night in the North American market for an upcharge of $2,500.
The new Model Y seven-seat configuration did not come with just an additional row of seating; it also came with a slew of other goodies that now come standard and were previously only available on the Model Y Performance, which was launched late last year.
All Black Headliner
The new Tesla Model Y Premium trims will now come standard with a black headliner, something that many owners have been requesting for some time.
The previous grey headliner and trim within the vehicle is now gone; it will be all black on all of the Premium trims from here on out, a welcome change:
Credit: Tesla
Larger and Higher Resolution Center Touchscreen
The center touchscreen in the new Model Y Premium configuration is now larger and has a higher resolution than the previous version.
In last year’s Model Y configurations (apart from the Performance), the center touchscreen was 15.4″. Now, Tesla has decided to go with the 16″ version across all Premium trims, which is a nice step up. It was nice to see this in the Performance, but it is really great to see Tesla include this in the Model Y’s more Premium trim levels.
Tesla Model Y Seven Seater
Tesla launched the latest iteration of the seven-seater for the Model Y on Monday night. Traditionally, the Model Y seats five passengers in total, but there were calls for a more spacious version several years ago.
Tesla released it, but it was extremely tight in the back, basically reserving those back seats for only small people or children.
Credit: Tesla
The new configuration looks to be slightly more spacious in the third row, but not as much space as most would require or want. Instead,
Elon Musk
Lufthansa Group to equip Starlink on its 850-aircraft fleet
Under the collaboration, Lufthansa Group will install Starlink technology on both its existing fleet and all newly delivered aircraft, as noted by the group in a press release.
Lufthansa Group has announced a partnership with Starlink that will bring high-speed internet connectivity to every aircraft across all its carriers.
This means that aircraft across the group’s brands, from Lufthansa, SWISS, and Austrian Airlines to Brussels Airlines, would be able to enjoy high-speed internet access using the industry-leading satellite internet solution.
Starlink in-flight internet
Under the collaboration, Lufthansa Group will install Starlink technology on both its existing fleet and all newly delivered aircraft, as noted by the group in a press release.
Starlink’s low-Earth orbit satellites are expected to provide significantly higher bandwidth and lower latency than traditional in-flight Wi-Fi, which should enable streaming, online work, and other data-intensive applications for passengers during flights.
Starlink-powered internet is expected to be available on the first commercial flights as early as the second half of 2026. The rollout will continue through the decade, with the entire Lufthansa Group fleet scheduled to be fully equipped with Starlink by 2029. Once complete, no other European airline group will operate more Starlink-connected aircraft.
Free high-speed access
As part of the initiative, Lufthansa Group will offer the new high-speed internet free of charge to all status customers and Travel ID users, regardless of cabin class. Chief Commercial Officer Dieter Vranckx shared his expectations for the program.
“In our anniversary year, in which we are celebrating Lufthansa’s 100th birthday, we have decided to introduce a new high-speed internet solution from Starlink for all our airlines. The Lufthansa Group is taking the next step and setting an essential milestone for the premium travel experience of our customers.
“Connectivity on board plays an important role today, and with Starlink, we are not only investing in the best product on the market, but also in the satisfaction of our passengers,” Vranckx said.
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Tesla makes two big interior changes to several Model Y vehicles
Lufthansa Group to equip Starlink on its 850-aircraft fleet
