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SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy launch and landing could be more than a year away

Falcon Heavy launched for the third time ever on June 25th, successfully recovering 2 of 3 boosters and placing 24 satellites in their proper orbits. Falcon Heavy Flight 4 could be more than 16 months away. (SpaceX)

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6 years ago

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According to comments made by US Air Force officials prior to SpaceX’s latest Falcon Heavy launch, the payload assigned to the military’s first fully-certified Falcon Heavy has been swapped with another, although the mission’s late-2020 launch target remains relatively unchanged.

This new information comes on the heels of the June 25th launch of Space Test Program 2 (STP-2), SpaceX’s third successful Falcon Heavy mission and a huge milestone for the rocket’s future as a competitive option for US military launches. Perhaps most importantly, it confirms – barring a surprise launch contract or internal Starlink mission – that Falcon Heavy’s next (and fourth) launch is unlikely to occur until late next year, a gap of at least 15-17 months.

Announced roughly four months after Falcon Heavy’s inaugural February 2018 launch debut, the USAF contracted with SpaceX to launch the ~6350 kg (14,000 lb) AFSPC-52 satellite no earlier than (NET) September 2020. In February 2019, Department of Defense contract announcements revealed that SpaceX had been awarded three military launch contracts, two for the National Reconnaissance Office (NROL-85 & NROL-87) and one for the USAF (AFSPC-44), all tentatively scheduled to launch in 2021.

First reported by Spaceflight Now, Col. Robert Bongiovi – director of the launch enterprise systems directorate at the Air Force’s Space and Missile Systems Center (AFSMC) – recently indicated that AFSPC-44 – not AFSPC-52 – is now scheduled to be the US military’s first post-certification Falcon Heavy launch. 52 and 44 have essentially swapped spots, with AFSPC-44 moving forward to NET Q4 (fall) 2020 while AFSPC-52 has been delayed to NET Q2 (spring) 2021.

Falcon Heavy lifts off from Pad 39A for the third time ever. (Tom Cross)

The trouble with launch gaps

Although Bongiovi did not explicitly state that AFSPC-44 will be SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy launch, there are no publicly-disclosed missions set to launch on the rocket in the interim. That could theoretically change, especially if SpaceX has plans to launch the massive rocket in support of an internal Starlink mission or even something more exotic, but the loss of both Block 5 center core B1055 and B1057 means that the company will have to build an entirely new center core.

SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy lead times are far superior to competitor ULA’s Delta IV Heavy production line, but the process of manufacturing new center cores is still quite lengthy. Critically, Falcon Heavy Block 5 center cores require strengthened octawebs, custom interstages, and propellant tanks that are significantly thicker than those used on Falcon 9. For all intents and purposes, a center core is a totally different rocket relative to a Falcon 9 booster, the latter being SpaceX’s primary focus at the company’s assembly line-style Hawthorne factory. It’s theoretically possible for a dedicated Falcon Heavy center core build to be expedited or leapfrogged forward in the production queue, but most long-lead Falcon 9 booster hardware physically cannot be redirected to speed up center core production.

An overview of SpaceX’s Hawthorne factory floor in early 2018. (SpaceX)

Unless SpaceX was already in the process of building a new center core prior B1057’s unsuccessful landing attempt, it’s safe to assume that the next custom Falcon Heavy booster is unlikely to be completed until early 2020, if not later. In theory, this means that Falcon Heavy could be dormant for no less than 16 months between STP-2 and its next launch. Traditionally, that sort of lengthy gap between launches has been frowned upon by NASA, ULA, and oversight groups like GAO. If a given rocket doesn’t launch for a year or more, it can potentially pose a risk to reliability and raise costs as its production and launch teams have no satisfactory way to fully preserve their technical expertise.

This can be compared to attempting to become an expert at a musical instrument while only having access to said instrument one or two months a year, essentially impossible. In fact, at one point, NASA hoped to require its Space Launch System (SLS) rocket be able to launch no less than once per year, partly motivated by a desire to mitigate some of the deterioration that can follow extremely low launch cadences. Years later, financial constraints and years upon years of delays and budget overruns have made such a cadence effectively impossible for SLS/Orion, but the fact remains that launching a rocket just once every 18-24 months is likely to inflate both costs and risks.

The first Block 5 version of Falcon Heavy prepares for its launch debut.
Falcon Heavy Flight 2, April 2019. (SpaceX)
Falcon Heavy Flight 3, June 2019. Both side boosters (left and right) are flight-proven and launch as part of Flight 2 just ~75 days prior. (SpaceX)

Thankfully, SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy could scarcely be more different than NASA’s SLS and the retired Space Shuttle it derives most of its hardware from. Even if all things are held equal and not flying a Falcon Heavy center core for 16+ months increases risk and cost, center cores are still heavily derived from Falcon 9 booster technology, including plumbing, avionics, attitude control thrusters, Merlin 1D engines, landing legs, and launch facilities.

Furthermore, the center core is just one of five distinct assemblies that make up a given Falcon Heavy. Both side boosters are effectively Falcon 9 Block 5 boosters with nose cones instead of interstages and slight modifications to support booster attachment hardware, while the upper stage and payload fairing are the same for all Falcon launches. In other words, SpaceX’s workforce will continue to build, launch, land, and reuse dozens of Falcon 9 boosters – as well as upper stages payload fairings – between now and Falcon Heavy Flight 4, even if it’s NET Q4 2020. In a worst-case scenario, SpaceX production and launch staff will be unfamiliar and inexperienced with maybe 20% of Falcon Heavy – at least in a very rough sense. Even then, much of that unfamiliarity may still be tempered by the fact that Falcon Heavy center cores share a large amount of commonality with the Falcon 9 first stages SpaceX’s workforce will remain deeply familiar with.

Indeed, Falcon Heavy’s second launch has already demonstrated this to some extent, occurring without issue more than 14 months after the rocket’s inaugural launch. It seems that the only real loss incurred by a ~16-month delay between Flights 3 and 4 will be having to wait another year (or more) to witness Falcon Heavy’s next launch.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla Model 3 filings in China show interesting hardware addition

The addition of a front bumper camera to the Tesla Model 3 is a big upgrade from a hardware perspective.

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2 hours ago

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August 8, 2025

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Credit: Tesla Newswire via China's MIIT

Tesla Model 3 filings in China are showing the vehicle could get a very interesting hardware addition, one that was not included on the “Highland” update when it rolled out to customers a year and a half ago.

The Model 3 Highland is Tesla’s updated version of the all-electric sedan, and was launched across the world in early 2024. It featured a variety of updates, including new exterior and interior designs.

However, there were a few things missing from the update that surprised Tesla fans because they were included on other cars.

One of them was the lack of a front bumper camera, a hardware piece that was included on other vehicles within the company’s lineup, including the Model Y Juniper, an updated version of the all-electric crossover that launched earlier this year.

Now, it seems Tesla is preparing to implement that front camera on the Model 3, as new filings with China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) showed the car with the addition:

The front bumper camera is a small but powerful addition to Tesla vehicles. It not only enhances visibility for simple tasks like parking, helping avoid things like curbs, but it also helps provide a wider field of view directly in front of the car.

It is also a crucial part of the Full Self-Driving and Autopilot suites, helping provide yet another angle of vision for the vehicle as Tesla makes its suite more robust. It is already improving through software upgrades and data collection, but it could always use additional hardware to enhance accuracy.

A Model 3 Highland test mule was spotted near Boston, Massachusetts, back in May with a variety of additional cameras equipped. Some believed this was a vehicle that was assisting with collecting training data.

Tesla is testing a Model 3 with some mysterious cameras in the U.S.

However, it could be a sign of Tesla planning to add this piece of hardware to a slightly updated version of the new Model 3 that could come to production in various markets in the near future.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk details massive FSD update set for September release

“This will substantially reduce the need for driver attention, but some complex intersections, heavy weather or unusual events will still require attention.”

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4 hours ago

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August 8, 2025

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Credit: Tesla Asia | X

Tesla CEO Elon Musk detailed the changes that are expected to come with a massive Full Self-Driving (FSD) update, which is set to roll out sometime in September, he revealed earlier this week.

Tesla has been refining its FSD suite for years, but it has never been as good as it is now. The focus is to get the suite to a point where interventions are no longer needed and drivers simply become passengers, as they will not be responsible for paying attention to the road.

Elon Musk teases crazy new Tesla FSD model: here’s when it’s coming

That version of FSD will come eventually, but not next month. However, there are dramatic improvements that will come with next month’s FSD update that will roll out to the public, Musk said:

“The FSD software update next month will be a major step-change improvement for rare conditions.”

Additionally, he provided specific details on what would change, hinting that the need for a driver to pay attention will be “substantially reduced,” but there are some “complex intersections, heavy weather, or unusual events” that will still require drivers to assume responsibility for the car:

“This will substantially reduce the need for driver attention, but some complex intersections, heavy weather or unusual events will still require attention.”

We have been teased about these types of updates before, but usually they involve some kind of mention of FSD being ready for unsupervised driving “by the end of the year.” Musk did not mention that here.

There is also the fact that Tesla has another FSD build in Austin for the Robotaxi suite that is more advanced than what is available to the public. It has performed well, Musk says, making claims that there are times when it feels “eerily human.”

Tesla Q2 2025 vehicle safety report proves FSD makes driving almost 10X safer

The improvements in FSD capabilities in subsequent releases are usually very evident. As Tesla continues to refine the suite for the public, it gains more confidence and becomes smarter through the collection of data and the use of neural networks.

The only thing left to wait for is the release itself, and we are hopeful it will roll out to the public in September, as Musk says.

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Tesla Model Y L’s impressive specs surface in China’s recent MIIT filing

The Tesla Model Y L is expected to launch later this year.

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7 hours ago

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August 8, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

The specs of the upcoming Tesla Model Y L has appeared in new Chinese regulatory filings, revealing key specifications including a six-seat layout and an extended range of up to 751 kilometers. The variant is expected to launch later this year alongside a new long-range Model 3 variant rated at 830 kilometers.

The updates were listed on the China Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s (MIIT) latest batch of new energy vehicle models that are eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemptions.

Model Y L to debut with larger battery, six-seat layout

Listed under the model code TSL6500BEVBA0, the Model Y L will feature dual motors producing 142 kW at the front and 198 kW at the rear. It will be powered by a 465-kilogram 82.0-kWh lithium-ion battery from LG Energy Solution, with a pack energy density of 176 Wh/kg, as noted in a CNEV Post report. The long-range crossover achieves 751 km on the lenient CLTC cycle, making it Tesla’s highest-range Model Y to date in China despite its curb weight of 2,088 kg.

The “L” designation is believed to refer to the vehicle’s larger size and seating configuration, as the new variant is listed with six seats. It builds on Tesla’s strategy to diversify offerings in the Model Y lineup, which currently includes both RWD and AWD five-seat versions.

Model 3+ breaks record with 830 km CLTC range

Alongside the Model Y L, Tesla China also registered a new rear-wheel-drive Model 3, which was designated with the model code TSL7000BEVBR1. The vehicle boasts either 800 or 830 km of range on the CLTC cycle, depending on its trim. This marks the highest range yet for any Tesla vehicle in China.

The variant will use a 448-kilogram, 78.4-kWh LG-supplied battery with an energy density of 175 Wh/kg and a peak motor output of 225 kW. The vehicle’s curb weight is listed at 1,760 kg. The model was previously identified in filings as “Model 3+,” hinting at a possible tier above the existing long-range variant, which tops out at 753 km CLTC.

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