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SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy launch and landing could be more than a year away

Falcon Heavy launched for the third time ever on June 25th, successfully recovering 2 of 3 boosters and placing 24 satellites in their proper orbits. Falcon Heavy Flight 4 could be more than 16 months away. (SpaceX)

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According to comments made by US Air Force officials prior to SpaceX’s latest Falcon Heavy launch, the payload assigned to the military’s first fully-certified Falcon Heavy has been swapped with another, although the mission’s late-2020 launch target remains relatively unchanged.

This new information comes on the heels of the June 25th launch of Space Test Program 2 (STP-2), SpaceX’s third successful Falcon Heavy mission and a huge milestone for the rocket’s future as a competitive option for US military launches. Perhaps most importantly, it confirms – barring a surprise launch contract or internal Starlink mission – that Falcon Heavy’s next (and fourth) launch is unlikely to occur until late next year, a gap of at least 15-17 months.

Announced roughly four months after Falcon Heavy’s inaugural February 2018 launch debut, the USAF contracted with SpaceX to launch the ~6350 kg (14,000 lb) AFSPC-52 satellite no earlier than (NET) September 2020. In February 2019, Department of Defense contract announcements revealed that SpaceX had been awarded three military launch contracts, two for the National Reconnaissance Office (NROL-85 & NROL-87) and one for the USAF (AFSPC-44), all tentatively scheduled to launch in 2021.

First reported by Spaceflight Now, Col. Robert Bongiovi – director of the launch enterprise systems directorate at the Air Force’s Space and Missile Systems Center (AFSMC) – recently indicated that AFSPC-44 – not AFSPC-52 – is now scheduled to be the US military’s first post-certification Falcon Heavy launch. 52 and 44 have essentially swapped spots, with AFSPC-44 moving forward to NET Q4 (fall) 2020 while AFSPC-52 has been delayed to NET Q2 (spring) 2021.

Falcon Heavy lifts off from Pad 39A for the third time ever. (Tom Cross)

The trouble with launch gaps

Although Bongiovi did not explicitly state that AFSPC-44 will be SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy launch, there are no publicly-disclosed missions set to launch on the rocket in the interim. That could theoretically change, especially if SpaceX has plans to launch the massive rocket in support of an internal Starlink mission or even something more exotic, but the loss of both Block 5 center core B1055 and B1057 means that the company will have to build an entirely new center core.

SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy lead times are far superior to competitor ULA’s Delta IV Heavy production line, but the process of manufacturing new center cores is still quite lengthy. Critically, Falcon Heavy Block 5 center cores require strengthened octawebs, custom interstages, and propellant tanks that are significantly thicker than those used on Falcon 9. For all intents and purposes, a center core is a totally different rocket relative to a Falcon 9 booster, the latter being SpaceX’s primary focus at the company’s assembly line-style Hawthorne factory. It’s theoretically possible for a dedicated Falcon Heavy center core build to be expedited or leapfrogged forward in the production queue, but most long-lead Falcon 9 booster hardware physically cannot be redirected to speed up center core production.

An overview of SpaceX’s Hawthorne factory floor in early 2018. (SpaceX)

Unless SpaceX was already in the process of building a new center core prior B1057’s unsuccessful landing attempt, it’s safe to assume that the next custom Falcon Heavy booster is unlikely to be completed until early 2020, if not later. In theory, this means that Falcon Heavy could be dormant for no less than 16 months between STP-2 and its next launch. Traditionally, that sort of lengthy gap between launches has been frowned upon by NASA, ULA, and oversight groups like GAO. If a given rocket doesn’t launch for a year or more, it can potentially pose a risk to reliability and raise costs as its production and launch teams have no satisfactory way to fully preserve their technical expertise.

This can be compared to attempting to become an expert at a musical instrument while only having access to said instrument one or two months a year, essentially impossible. In fact, at one point, NASA hoped to require its Space Launch System (SLS) rocket be able to launch no less than once per year, partly motivated by a desire to mitigate some of the deterioration that can follow extremely low launch cadences. Years later, financial constraints and years upon years of delays and budget overruns have made such a cadence effectively impossible for SLS/Orion, but the fact remains that launching a rocket just once every 18-24 months is likely to inflate both costs and risks.

The first Block 5 version of Falcon Heavy prepares for its launch debut.
Falcon Heavy Flight 2, April 2019. (SpaceX)
Falcon Heavy Flight 3, June 2019. Both side boosters (left and right) are flight-proven and launch as part of Flight 2 just ~75 days prior. (SpaceX)

Thankfully, SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy could scarcely be more different than NASA’s SLS and the retired Space Shuttle it derives most of its hardware from. Even if all things are held equal and not flying a Falcon Heavy center core for 16+ months increases risk and cost, center cores are still heavily derived from Falcon 9 booster technology, including plumbing, avionics, attitude control thrusters, Merlin 1D engines, landing legs, and launch facilities.

Furthermore, the center core is just one of five distinct assemblies that make up a given Falcon Heavy. Both side boosters are effectively Falcon 9 Block 5 boosters with nose cones instead of interstages and slight modifications to support booster attachment hardware, while the upper stage and payload fairing are the same for all Falcon launches. In other words, SpaceX’s workforce will continue to build, launch, land, and reuse dozens of Falcon 9 boosters – as well as upper stages payload fairings – between now and Falcon Heavy Flight 4, even if it’s NET Q4 2020. In a worst-case scenario, SpaceX production and launch staff will be unfamiliar and inexperienced with maybe 20% of Falcon Heavy – at least in a very rough sense. Even then, much of that unfamiliarity may still be tempered by the fact that Falcon Heavy center cores share a large amount of commonality with the Falcon 9 first stages SpaceX’s workforce will remain deeply familiar with.

Indeed, Falcon Heavy’s second launch has already demonstrated this to some extent, occurring without issue more than 14 months after the rocket’s inaugural launch. It seems that the only real loss incurred by a ~16-month delay between Flights 3 and 4 will be having to wait another year (or more) to witness Falcon Heavy’s next launch.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla’s Semi truck factory is open with a detail that changes everything

Tesla’s dedicated Nevada Semi factory has opened, targeting 50,000 trucks per year as fleet adoptions accelerate nationwide.

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Nearly nine years after Elon Musk unveiled the Tesla Semi in November 2017, the company is now opening a dedicated factory just outside of Reno, Nevada, and ramping toward mass production of 50,000 trucks per year.

Volume production began in March 2026 at the new Tesla Semi factory, with the competitive advantage not being the factory itself. Rather, it’s where Tesla built it. By constructing the 1.7 million square foot facility directly adjacent to Gigafactory Nevada in Sparks, Tesla closed the one supply chain loop that had delayed the Semi program for years. The 4680 battery cells that power the Semi are manufactured in the same complex, which significantly streamlines supply logistics. That single decision eliminates the bottleneck that forced Tesla to prioritize battery supply for passenger cars over the Semi throughout 2020, 2021, and 2022, which is precisely why the first deliveries slipped three years past the original target. Every other electric truck manufacturer sources its battery cells from a separate supplier, ships them to a separate factory, and absorbs the cost and delay that comes with that. Tesla built its Semi factory around its battery factory, and that vertical integration is what makes 50,000 trucks per year a realistic number rather than an aspirational one.

At the 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, Musk was direct about where things stood, stating “Starting next year, we will manufacture the Tesla Semi. We already have a lot of prototype Semis in operation – PepsiCo and other companies have been using them for some time. But in 2026, we’ll begin volume production at our Northern Nevada factory.” Full ramp to volume output is targeted before June 30, 2026.


The first limited deliveries happened in December 2022 to PepsiCo, which eventually doubled its fleet to 50 trucks out of its California distribution facility. Since then the Semi has been showing up in more corporate fleets. As Teslarati noted in March, a Ralph’s Supermarkets branded Semi was spotted on a Los Angeles highway, confirming Kroger’s partnership with Tesla to deploy up to 500 electric Semis. Walmart, Costco, Sysco, US Foods, DHL, Hight Logistics and WattEV are among the companies actively running or receiving units. DHL logged real-world efficiency of 1.72 kWh per mile under a full 75,000 pound load over 388 miles, matching Tesla’s targets closely.

The 2026 production model arrives with meaningful upgrades over the original, with a 1,000 pound weight reduction, updated aerodynamics, and support for 1.2 MW Megacharger speeds that can restore 60% of range in around 30 minutes during a mandatory driver rest break. Tesla opened its first public Megacharger in Ontario, California in March, positioned near the I-10 and I-15 interchange serving the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The company plans 37 Megacharger sites by end of 2026 and 66 total across 15 states by early 2027, with construction beginning at the nation’s largest truck stop operator in the first half of this year.

Tesla reveals various improvements to the Semi in new piece with Jay Leno

Musk has described the Semi’s economics as a straightforward case. “The Semi is a TCO no-brainer,” he said, noting the total cost of ownership is “much, much cheaper than any other transportation you could have.” At under $300,000, the truck costs roughly double a comparable diesel, but California’s $200,000 per vehicle subsidy has driven over 1,000 state orders alone. As Teslarati has tracked, the prototype fleet accumulated over 13.5 million miles with 95% fleet uptime before production ever scaled. The factory opening now turns that proof of concept into a production program.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving gets first-ever European approval

Tesla owners in the Netherlands with a Full Self-Driving subscription will receive a software update “shortly,” the company said, activating the operation of the company’s semi-autonomous driving tech for the first time in Europe.

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Credit: Tesla AI | X

Tesla Full Self-Driving (Supervised) got its first-ever European approval, as the Netherlands gave the suite the green light to begin operation.

Tesla owners in the Netherlands with a Full Self-Driving subscription will receive a software update “shortly,” the company said, activating the operation of the company’s semi-autonomous driving tech for the first time in Europe.

The Dutch vehicle authority RDW granted the type approval after more than 18 months of rigorous testing on both closed tracks and public roads. FSD Supervised complies with UN R-171 standards and benefits from Article 39 exemptions under EU Regulation 2018/858. Importantly, it is not a fully autonomous vehicle.

The RDW stressed that the driver remains fully responsible and must maintain attention at all times. “Safety is paramount for the RDW,” the authority stated. “Proper use of this driver assistance system contributes positively to road safety.” Sensors monitor driver alertness, issuing warnings if eyes leave the road or hands are unavailable to take control immediately.

CEO Elon Musk also commented on the approval in a post on X, saying:

“First (supervised) FSD approval in Europe! Congratulations to the Tesla team and thank you to the regulatory authorities in the Netherlands for all of the hard work required to make this happen.”

Trained on billions of kilometers of real-world driving data, FSD Supervised allows the vehicle to handle residential streets, dense city traffic, and highways under constant supervision. Tesla’s post declared:

“It can drive you almost anywhere under your supervision – from residential roads to city streets & highways. No other vehicle can do this.”

The company added that it is “excited to bring FSD Supervised to more European countries soon.”

This national approval paves the way for broader EU adoption. Other member states can recognize the Dutch certification individually, with a potential bloc-wide rollout via European Commission committee vote anticipated by this Summer. The decision underscores Europe’s stricter safety and documentation requirements compared to U.S. self-certification.

Tesla Europe shares FSD test video weeks ahead of launch target

The Netherlands’ approval represents a pivotal step for Tesla in Europe, where complex regulations and mixed traffic have delayed rollout. Musk added that the RDW was “rigorous” in its assessment of FSD.

By proving the system’s safety in one of the continent’s most bicycle- and tram-heavy nations, Tesla positions itself to transform mobility across the EU—delivering greater convenience while keeping drivers firmly in control.

As the first domino falls, anticipation builds for FSD Supervised to reach additional countries soon.

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Tesla is using a redesigned Cybertruck battery cell to mitigate Semi challenges

It is perhaps the most recent example of Tesla using unique engineering prowess and cross-pollinating vehicle elements to solve common problems, something it does better than most companies out there.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla revealed that it is utilizing redesigned Cybertruck battery cells in its Long Range Semi to mitigate some pertinent challenges that come with long-haul logistics.

It is perhaps the most recent example of Tesla using unique engineering prowess and cross-pollinating vehicle elements to solve common problems, something it does better than most companies out there.

Tesla’s long-awaited Semi truck is entering production at its Nevada Gigafactory, and fresh factory footage reveals a clever evolution in its battery technology.

The Long Range variant, designed for up to 500 miles of real-world range, relies on a structural battery pack that uses the same 4680-form-factor cells found in the Cybertruck.

However, Tesla engineers have completely redesigned the pack’s architecture—shifting from the flat, pancake-style modules typical in passenger vehicles to a compact, vertical cubic layout. This change isn’t just about cramming more energy into the chassis; it’s a targeted solution to one of electric trucking’s biggest headaches: range loss in cold climates.

Dan Priestley, Head of the Tesla Semi program, said:

“We’re using essentially the same cell out of Cybertruck, but our cars packs are more like a pancake. Whereas these are more like a cube. You get a lot of energy stored in a small space. You can only do this if you design the vehicle to be electric from the ground up.”

In conventional EVs, battery packs are laid out horizontally in wide, flat arrays to fit under the floor. While this works for cars and even the Cybertruck’s structural pack, it exposes a large surface area to the elements.

Heat escapes quickly, especially overnight when the truck is parked. Cold temperatures slow chemical reactions inside lithium-ion cells, reducing available energy and forcing the vehicle to expend extra power warming the battery and cabin.

Real-world tests on vehicles like the Cybertruck show winter range losses of 20-40 percent, depending on conditions. For long-haul truck drivers operating in Canada, Scandinavia, or the northern U.S., this “silent killer” means unplanned stops, reduced payloads, and higher operating costs.

From personal experience, cold weather still impacts EV batteries even with various inventions and strategies that companies have come up with. In the cold Pennsylvania winter, charging was much more frequent for me due to range loss due to temperatures.

Tesla’s cubic battery pack flips the script. By arranging the 4680 cells in tall, dense vertical stacks, the pack minimizes external surface area relative to its volume—essentially turning the battery into its own thermal blanket.

Factory video from the Semi assembly line shows these large, yellow-green structural modules mounted directly onto the chassis, forming a near-cube shape.

The reduced exposure helps the pack retain heat generated during operation, keeping cells closer to their optimal temperature even after hours in sub-zero conditions.

The design doesn’t stop there. Tesla pairs the cubic pack with an advanced heat pump system that actively recycles thermal energy from the motors, brakes, and even ambient air.

Tesla reveals various improvements to the Semi in new piece with Jay Leno

Unlike passive systems in earlier EVs, this architecture transfers waste heat back into the battery, maintaining readiness for morning departures without draining the pack.

Executives have noted that the combination, cubic geometry plus intelligent thermal management, dramatically cuts overnight cooldown and range degradation, making the Semi viable for 24/7 fleet operations in harsh winters.

Beyond cold-weather performance, the redesigned pack integrates structurally with the truck’s frame, enhancing rigidity while simplifying assembly. Production footage shows workers installing the massive modules early in the line, signaling that the Semi’s battery is now a core chassis component rather than an add-on.

Using proven 4680 cells keeps costs down and leverages Tesla’s scaled manufacturing know-how from Cybertruck and Model Y lines.

Tesla’s focus on ramping up Semi output will lean on small innovative steps like this one. Truckers are not immune to traveling in cold weather conditions, and changes like this one will help make them more effective while also increasing output by logistics operators who choose to go all-electric with the Tesla Semi.

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