Connect with us

News

SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy launch and landing could be more than a year away

Falcon Heavy launched for the third time ever on June 25th, successfully recovering 2 of 3 boosters and placing 24 satellites in their proper orbits. Falcon Heavy Flight 4 could be more than 16 months away. (SpaceX)

Published

6 years ago

on

According to comments made by US Air Force officials prior to SpaceX’s latest Falcon Heavy launch, the payload assigned to the military’s first fully-certified Falcon Heavy has been swapped with another, although the mission’s late-2020 launch target remains relatively unchanged.

This new information comes on the heels of the June 25th launch of Space Test Program 2 (STP-2), SpaceX’s third successful Falcon Heavy mission and a huge milestone for the rocket’s future as a competitive option for US military launches. Perhaps most importantly, it confirms – barring a surprise launch contract or internal Starlink mission – that Falcon Heavy’s next (and fourth) launch is unlikely to occur until late next year, a gap of at least 15-17 months.

Announced roughly four months after Falcon Heavy’s inaugural February 2018 launch debut, the USAF contracted with SpaceX to launch the ~6350 kg (14,000 lb) AFSPC-52 satellite no earlier than (NET) September 2020. In February 2019, Department of Defense contract announcements revealed that SpaceX had been awarded three military launch contracts, two for the National Reconnaissance Office (NROL-85 & NROL-87) and one for the USAF (AFSPC-44), all tentatively scheduled to launch in 2021.

First reported by Spaceflight Now, Col. Robert Bongiovi – director of the launch enterprise systems directorate at the Air Force’s Space and Missile Systems Center (AFSMC) – recently indicated that AFSPC-44 – not AFSPC-52 – is now scheduled to be the US military’s first post-certification Falcon Heavy launch. 52 and 44 have essentially swapped spots, with AFSPC-44 moving forward to NET Q4 (fall) 2020 while AFSPC-52 has been delayed to NET Q2 (spring) 2021.

Falcon Heavy lifts off from Pad 39A for the third time ever. (Tom Cross)

The trouble with launch gaps

Although Bongiovi did not explicitly state that AFSPC-44 will be SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy launch, there are no publicly-disclosed missions set to launch on the rocket in the interim. That could theoretically change, especially if SpaceX has plans to launch the massive rocket in support of an internal Starlink mission or even something more exotic, but the loss of both Block 5 center core B1055 and B1057 means that the company will have to build an entirely new center core.

SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy lead times are far superior to competitor ULA’s Delta IV Heavy production line, but the process of manufacturing new center cores is still quite lengthy. Critically, Falcon Heavy Block 5 center cores require strengthened octawebs, custom interstages, and propellant tanks that are significantly thicker than those used on Falcon 9. For all intents and purposes, a center core is a totally different rocket relative to a Falcon 9 booster, the latter being SpaceX’s primary focus at the company’s assembly line-style Hawthorne factory. It’s theoretically possible for a dedicated Falcon Heavy center core build to be expedited or leapfrogged forward in the production queue, but most long-lead Falcon 9 booster hardware physically cannot be redirected to speed up center core production.

An overview of SpaceX’s Hawthorne factory floor in early 2018. (SpaceX)

Unless SpaceX was already in the process of building a new center core prior B1057’s unsuccessful landing attempt, it’s safe to assume that the next custom Falcon Heavy booster is unlikely to be completed until early 2020, if not later. In theory, this means that Falcon Heavy could be dormant for no less than 16 months between STP-2 and its next launch. Traditionally, that sort of lengthy gap between launches has been frowned upon by NASA, ULA, and oversight groups like GAO. If a given rocket doesn’t launch for a year or more, it can potentially pose a risk to reliability and raise costs as its production and launch teams have no satisfactory way to fully preserve their technical expertise.

This can be compared to attempting to become an expert at a musical instrument while only having access to said instrument one or two months a year, essentially impossible. In fact, at one point, NASA hoped to require its Space Launch System (SLS) rocket be able to launch no less than once per year, partly motivated by a desire to mitigate some of the deterioration that can follow extremely low launch cadences. Years later, financial constraints and years upon years of delays and budget overruns have made such a cadence effectively impossible for SLS/Orion, but the fact remains that launching a rocket just once every 18-24 months is likely to inflate both costs and risks.

The first Block 5 version of Falcon Heavy prepares for its launch debut.
Falcon Heavy Flight 2, April 2019. (SpaceX)
Falcon Heavy Flight 3, June 2019. Both side boosters (left and right) are flight-proven and launch as part of Flight 2 just ~75 days prior. (SpaceX)

Thankfully, SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy could scarcely be more different than NASA’s SLS and the retired Space Shuttle it derives most of its hardware from. Even if all things are held equal and not flying a Falcon Heavy center core for 16+ months increases risk and cost, center cores are still heavily derived from Falcon 9 booster technology, including plumbing, avionics, attitude control thrusters, Merlin 1D engines, landing legs, and launch facilities.

Furthermore, the center core is just one of five distinct assemblies that make up a given Falcon Heavy. Both side boosters are effectively Falcon 9 Block 5 boosters with nose cones instead of interstages and slight modifications to support booster attachment hardware, while the upper stage and payload fairing are the same for all Falcon launches. In other words, SpaceX’s workforce will continue to build, launch, land, and reuse dozens of Falcon 9 boosters – as well as upper stages payload fairings – between now and Falcon Heavy Flight 4, even if it’s NET Q4 2020. In a worst-case scenario, SpaceX production and launch staff will be unfamiliar and inexperienced with maybe 20% of Falcon Heavy – at least in a very rough sense. Even then, much of that unfamiliarity may still be tempered by the fact that Falcon Heavy center cores share a large amount of commonality with the Falcon 9 first stages SpaceX’s workforce will remain deeply familiar with.

Indeed, Falcon Heavy’s second launch has already demonstrated this to some extent, occurring without issue more than 14 months after the rocket’s inaugural launch. It seems that the only real loss incurred by a ~16-month delay between Flights 3 and 4 will be having to wait another year (or more) to witness Falcon Heavy’s next launch.

Check out Teslarati’s Marketplace! We offer Tesla accessories, including for the Tesla Cybertruck and Tesla Model 3.

Related Topics:

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

Advertisement
Comments

News

Tesla Model Y reclaims elusive sales title in competitive market

As more EVs have entered the market and some at better prices, Tesla’s Model Y has been put up against some very attractive options.

Published

12 hours ago

on

October 25, 2025

By

Credit: Tesla

The Tesla Model Y reclaimed an elusive sales title in one of the most competitive markets it is in, outpacing key rivals and formidable competitors to regain the crown it once was a shoe-in for.

As more EVs have entered the market and some at better prices, Tesla’s Model Y has been put up against some very attractive options.

This is especially prudent in Europe and China, where domestic car companies have been offering attractive and cheap EVs as Tesla alternatives.

However, in September, the Model Y was able to battle back and take over the top sales spot for EVs in Europe.

In September, it had 25,938 sales, and although it was an 8.6 percent decrease compared to the same month in 2024, it was enough to be labeled the best-selling car in the European market, Automotive News reported.

500-mile test proves why Tesla Model Y still humiliates rivals in Europe

There are four vehicles that have been atop the European EV sales rankings for any given month this year: the Renault Clio, which has three titles, the Dacia Sandero, which has won four monthly sales titles, and the Volkswagen T-Roc, which was the best-selling car in the market in August.

The Clio captured the number-two spot in September with 20,146 sales.

Despite a strong September showing for the Model Y, which was its first monthly sales crown of the year, the vehicle has not been a top-three EV in Europe this year. That is still led by the Sandero, Clio, and T-Roc.

Despite that, Tesla’s Model Y is still likely to be one of the best-selling vehicles in the world, if not the best, for the year.

In the United States, it has dominated EV sales charts and has been one of the most popular cars in the region. The same goes for China, where the Model Y has more competition than in Europe, but is so attractive because of its premium look and feel, as well as its tech offerings.

The Model Y has been the best-selling car globally for the past two years, outpacing widely popular gas and EV models from around the world.

Tesla also just finished up its best three-month sales period in its history, delivering just shy of half a million vehicles from July to September.

Continue Reading

News

Tesla dashcam video shows crazy plane crash avoidance maneuver

Published

12 hours ago

on

October 25, 2025

By

Credit: @davidbellow | X

A Tesla captured video of a crashing plane on an Oklahoma highway, as a shocking video shows a small aircraft coming across a local roadway, with various cars ducking to avoid it.

On October 23, an Oklahoma National Guard OA-1K Skyraider II turboprop plane crashed during a training mission after an engine failure. Both crew members escaped unharmed, but they were not the only ones at risk of injury.

A Tesla Dashcam video shared by a friend of the car’s owner shows the vehicle narrowly avoiding an impact with the plane, swerving left, then back onto its side of the road. It appears to be a serious miracle:

David Bellow, the person who posted the video of the Tesla avoiding the plane, claims it was Full Self-Driving that performed the maneuver, but it is not confirmed. This is what he said:

There are a few hints that suggest it could be Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite, but it is important to note that neither the company, the driver, nor the friend has confirmed this.

The first hint is the vehicle’s maneuver and subsequent reaction. The car suddenly swerves to the left, which any human would do, but how the vehicle continues to travel as if nothing had happened seems to solidify the idea that FSD could have been involved in avoiding the plane.

Nevertheless, this does not confirm that FSD was in control.

My Tesla did this on FSD (Supervised) v14.1 and the internet went crazy

Most people would likely have stopped in their tracks after avoiding an aircraft while driving.

However, this is not enough proof to definitively say FSD was responsible for the avoidance.

Additionally, the “Jump to Event” button is activated in the video, suggesting that FSD was in control. The vehicle gives this option when something major has occurred, including human intervention.

Regardless of whether the car was on FSD or was controlled manually, it is pretty crazy to have this piece of dashcam footage.

Continue Reading

News

Tesla Full Self-Driving got a minor feature that’s a massive improvement

“Brake Confirm for the Start Self-Driving button is now defaulted off. When disabled, Start Self-Driving will not require you to press and release the brake to confirm engagement.”

Published

13 hours ago

on

October 25, 2025

By

Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite seems to get better with every single release. However, it is also making it more seamless and easier than ever to use for passenger travel, thanks to a recent feature that has flown under the radar.

Tesla started rolling out its v14 iteration of the Full Self-Driving suite a few weeks ago to Early Access Program (EAP) members, and it finally started making its way to the public for the first time earlier this week.

Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.1 first impressions: Robotaxi-like features arrive

The wide rollout of Tesla v14.1.3 was long-awaited, as its capabilities were flexed by the handful of people lucky to have it. However, those sitting with v13.2.9 were still eager to get to their hands on the new FSD version, especially considering it came with a lot of cool upgrades.

One of which is flying under the radar and not getting as much attention as it should. Although it is a minor feature change from v13, Tesla has made FSD more seamless than ever with a simple fix that it started utilizing with v14.

With v14.1.1, Tesla started rolling out the removal of the “Brake Confirm” feature, which required drivers to touch the brake to activate Full Self-Driving. This is now an optional feature, as it now is defaulted to the off position by the car.

The release notes for the feature state:

“Brake Confirm for the Start Self-Driving button is now defaulted off. When disabled, Start Self-Driving will not require you to press and release the brake to confirm engagement.

You can enable Brake Confirm in Autopilot > Brake Confirm.”

Simply put, you no longer need to touch the brake to confirm your intention to use Full Self-Driving, which is a small but very effective fix.

It makes your car much more active in terms of overall activation, and it is definitely a quicker and more streamlined departure from your current location than ever before.

Here’s a good look at how quick it is:

@teslarati With Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, there is no delay when you start FSD. Press “Start Self-Driving” and you’re on your way #fyp #viral #tesla #teslafsd #fsdv14 ♬ original sound – TESLARATI

The feature is small, but it is very noticeable with your first uses of FSD v14. Eventually, it will become even more streamlined as Tesla solves self-driving and autonomy, as it will require zero human intervention to get started, which means the “Start Self-Driving” button will also be removed.

Continue Reading

Trending