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SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy launch and landing could be more than a year away
According to comments made by US Air Force officials prior to SpaceX’s latest Falcon Heavy launch, the payload assigned to the military’s first fully-certified Falcon Heavy has been swapped with another, although the mission’s late-2020 launch target remains relatively unchanged.
This new information comes on the heels of the June 25th launch of Space Test Program 2 (STP-2), SpaceX’s third successful Falcon Heavy mission and a huge milestone for the rocket’s future as a competitive option for US military launches. Perhaps most importantly, it confirms – barring a surprise launch contract or internal Starlink mission – that Falcon Heavy’s next (and fourth) launch is unlikely to occur until late next year, a gap of at least 15-17 months.
Announced roughly four months after Falcon Heavy’s inaugural February 2018 launch debut, the USAF contracted with SpaceX to launch the ~6350 kg (14,000 lb) AFSPC-52 satellite no earlier than (NET) September 2020. In February 2019, Department of Defense contract announcements revealed that SpaceX had been awarded three military launch contracts, two for the National Reconnaissance Office (NROL-85 & NROL-87) and one for the USAF (AFSPC-44), all tentatively scheduled to launch in 2021.
First reported by Spaceflight Now, Col. Robert Bongiovi – director of the launch enterprise systems directorate at the Air Force’s Space and Missile Systems Center (AFSMC) – recently indicated that AFSPC-44 – not AFSPC-52 – is now scheduled to be the US military’s first post-certification Falcon Heavy launch. 52 and 44 have essentially swapped spots, with AFSPC-44 moving forward to NET Q4 (fall) 2020 while AFSPC-52 has been delayed to NET Q2 (spring) 2021.
The trouble with launch gaps
Although Bongiovi did not explicitly state that AFSPC-44 will be SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy launch, there are no publicly-disclosed missions set to launch on the rocket in the interim. That could theoretically change, especially if SpaceX has plans to launch the massive rocket in support of an internal Starlink mission or even something more exotic, but the loss of both Block 5 center core B1055 and B1057 means that the company will have to build an entirely new center core.
SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy lead times are far superior to competitor ULA’s Delta IV Heavy production line, but the process of manufacturing new center cores is still quite lengthy. Critically, Falcon Heavy Block 5 center cores require strengthened octawebs, custom interstages, and propellant tanks that are significantly thicker than those used on Falcon 9. For all intents and purposes, a center core is a totally different rocket relative to a Falcon 9 booster, the latter being SpaceX’s primary focus at the company’s assembly line-style Hawthorne factory. It’s theoretically possible for a dedicated Falcon Heavy center core build to be expedited or leapfrogged forward in the production queue, but most long-lead Falcon 9 booster hardware physically cannot be redirected to speed up center core production.
Unless SpaceX was already in the process of building a new center core prior B1057’s unsuccessful landing attempt, it’s safe to assume that the next custom Falcon Heavy booster is unlikely to be completed until early 2020, if not later. In theory, this means that Falcon Heavy could be dormant for no less than 16 months between STP-2 and its next launch. Traditionally, that sort of lengthy gap between launches has been frowned upon by NASA, ULA, and oversight groups like GAO. If a given rocket doesn’t launch for a year or more, it can potentially pose a risk to reliability and raise costs as its production and launch teams have no satisfactory way to fully preserve their technical expertise.
This can be compared to attempting to become an expert at a musical instrument while only having access to said instrument one or two months a year, essentially impossible. In fact, at one point, NASA hoped to require its Space Launch System (SLS) rocket be able to launch no less than once per year, partly motivated by a desire to mitigate some of the deterioration that can follow extremely low launch cadences. Years later, financial constraints and years upon years of delays and budget overruns have made such a cadence effectively impossible for SLS/Orion, but the fact remains that launching a rocket just once every 18-24 months is likely to inflate both costs and risks.
Thankfully, SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy could scarcely be more different than NASA’s SLS and the retired Space Shuttle it derives most of its hardware from. Even if all things are held equal and not flying a Falcon Heavy center core for 16+ months increases risk and cost, center cores are still heavily derived from Falcon 9 booster technology, including plumbing, avionics, attitude control thrusters, Merlin 1D engines, landing legs, and launch facilities.
Furthermore, the center core is just one of five distinct assemblies that make up a given Falcon Heavy. Both side boosters are effectively Falcon 9 Block 5 boosters with nose cones instead of interstages and slight modifications to support booster attachment hardware, while the upper stage and payload fairing are the same for all Falcon launches. In other words, SpaceX’s workforce will continue to build, launch, land, and reuse dozens of Falcon 9 boosters – as well as upper stages payload fairings – between now and Falcon Heavy Flight 4, even if it’s NET Q4 2020. In a worst-case scenario, SpaceX production and launch staff will be unfamiliar and inexperienced with maybe 20% of Falcon Heavy – at least in a very rough sense. Even then, much of that unfamiliarity may still be tempered by the fact that Falcon Heavy center cores share a large amount of commonality with the Falcon 9 first stages SpaceX’s workforce will remain deeply familiar with.
Indeed, Falcon Heavy’s second launch has already demonstrated this to some extent, occurring without issue more than 14 months after the rocket’s inaugural launch. It seems that the only real loss incurred by a ~16-month delay between Flights 3 and 4 will be having to wait another year (or more) to witness Falcon Heavy’s next launch.
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Tesla prepares to expand Giga Texas with new Optimus production plant
Drone operator Joe Tegtmeyer recognized Tesla construction crews performing ground leveling and clearing efforts at the plant earlier today.
Tesla is preparing to expand Gigafactory Texas once again with a brand new facility that will house the eventual manufacturing efforts for Optimus, its humanoid robot.
It is already building some units on a Pilot line at the Fremont Factory in Northern California, but Tesla is planning to build the vast majority of its Optimus project at Gigafactory Texas.
Tesla Optimus gets its latest job, and it’s not in the company’s factories
It will build one million units per year in Fremont, but CEO Elon Musk said the company would build 10 million units every year in Texas at a new building at Giga Texas.
Musk said:
“I think there could be tens of billions of Optimus robots out there. Um, now obviously it’s very important we pay close attention to safety here. Then a 10 million unit uh per year production line here the I don’t know where we’re going to put the 100 million unit production line. on Mars. Maybe on Mars, I don’t know.”
Evidently, Tesla is ready to begin thinking about the production efforts of Optimus beyond a theoretical standpoint and is starting to prepare for the construction of the manufacturing plant on Giga Texas property.
Drone operator Joe Tegtmeyer recognized Tesla construction crews performing ground leveling and clearing efforts at the plant earlier today:
Giga Texas News!
A brand-new, stand-alone factory is starting construction! This follows the Shareholders meeting & info that a 10-million-per-year @Tesla_Optimus production facility “on the Giga Texas campus” will be built & enter into production in 2027!
Here are some… pic.twitter.com/7ig5DohfOt
— Joe Tegtmeyer 🚀 🤠🛸😎 (@JoeTegtmeyer) November 10, 2025
Production is still slated for 2027, at least at Gigafactory Texas. As previously mentioned, the company is building some units in Fremont for the time being, at least until subsequent versions of the Optimus project advance.
Tesla has done a great job of advancing Optimus forward, but it also has truly grand expectations for the project.
Musk said it could potentially be the biggest product in the history of the planet, as it will revolutionize the way humans perform tasks, probably eliminating monotonous tasks from everyday life.
Tesla revealed its first customer for the all-electric Semi truck after it launches next year. Who it truly is should not be a surprise.
The Semi is going to finally start deliveries to new companies outside of Tesla’s pilot program starting in 2026. The company has been building a dedicated production facility in Reno, Nevada, that has finally taken shape, but Tesla was evidently not finished with the Semi’s development.
Last week at the Annual Shareholder Meeting, Tesla said it had implemented some new designs into the Semi, helping with efficiency, updating its design, and making it a more suitable vehicle for hauling loads, as the changes also helped increase payload.
Tesla has obtained a lengthy list of companies that have committed to implementing the Semi in their own fleets, hoping to bring their logistics lineups up to date with electric powertrains and autonomous technologies.
While it is already operating a pilot program with PepsiCo. and Frito-Lay, Tesla will expand to other businesses, primarily using it internally after its launch.
Head of the Semi program at Tesla, Dan Priestley, said the company would be the first user of the vehicle after its launch next year. It has been using it to a certain extent, but the company has not been able to completely abandon gas haulers.
Instead, it will implement the Semi into its fleet for more sustainable vehicle logistics starting next year:
Tesla will be the first customer as we electrify our supply chain. This includes Texas operations.
— Dan Priestley (@danWpriestley) November 7, 2025
Tesla has already received orders for the Semi from a variety of large companies, including Walmart, Sysco, Anheuser-Busch, UPS, DHL, J.B. Hunt, among others.
Many analysts see the Tesla Semi as a major contributor to future growth and increasing value within the company, especially from a Wall Street perspective. Some firms say the Semi is one of several near and medium-term contributors to the company increasing its market cap.
Cantor Fitzgerald is just one of those firms, as last week it explicitly listed the Semi as a catalyst.
Analyst Andres Sheppard said, “Overall, we remain bullish on TSLA over the medium to long term. We continue to see meaningful future upside from Energy Storage & Deployment, FSD, Robotaxis/Cybercab, Semis, and Optimus Bots.”
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Tesla China rolls out Model Y L V2L adapter, and it’s free for early owners
Tesla China announced the rollout of the Model Y L’s AC external power adapter on social media platforms such as Weibo.
Tesla China has released a useful new accessory for the Model Y L, and it is free for some owners. With the accessory, the Model Y L effectively becomes a giant power bank that owners can use to power appliances when they are camping, or if their homes are hit by a power outage.
Tesla Model Y L V2L adapter
Tesla China announced the rollout of the Model Y L’s AC external power adapter on social media platforms such as Weibo. As per the product’s advertisement, the Model Y L could provide up to 2,200W of power with its adapter, allowing it to support numerous appliances on the go. Of course, but could also be used to charge devices during power outages.
Tesla China notes that the adapter’s current is 220V, and it also features an IP44 protection grade. Tesla notes that the adapter could operate at temperatures between -30℃ ~ +50℃. The Model Y L’s V2L functionality would not work if the vehicle’s battery is less than 10%, however.
Tesla China’s official shop is selling its AC external power adapter for a reasonable price. The product could be purchased for RMB599, which is equivalent to $85. That’s a great price for an accessory that could make car camping sessions several times more convenient.
Free for early Model Y L owners
While the Model Y L’s AC external power adapter is priced reasonably at the Tesla China shop, the accessory is available for free for early owners of the extended wheelbase six-seat all-electric crossover. This was highlighted in a message that Tesla China reportedly sent to owners of the vehicle.
“Your Tesla account is eligible for a free Model Y L dedicated AC external power adapter. Please log in to the online store to add the adapter to your cart. Once the system verifies it correctly, the price will automatically change to 0 yuan before placing the order. We will send it to you via express delivery subsequently.
“This free qualification is only for the first owner of the Model YL who did not receive an AC external power adapter at pickup, valid until February 28, 2026. Failure to place an order upon expiration will be considered as a waiver of eligibility. If there is a temporary shortage of goods, please be patient and we will reschedule the replenishment by the end of January 2026,” Tesla China wrote.
Tesla prepares to expand Giga Texas with new Optimus production plant
Tesla reveals its first Semi customer after launch
Tesla China rolls out Model Y L V2L adapter, and it’s free for early owners
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