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SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy launch and landing could be more than a year away
According to comments made by US Air Force officials prior to SpaceX’s latest Falcon Heavy launch, the payload assigned to the military’s first fully-certified Falcon Heavy has been swapped with another, although the mission’s late-2020 launch target remains relatively unchanged.
This new information comes on the heels of the June 25th launch of Space Test Program 2 (STP-2), SpaceX’s third successful Falcon Heavy mission and a huge milestone for the rocket’s future as a competitive option for US military launches. Perhaps most importantly, it confirms – barring a surprise launch contract or internal Starlink mission – that Falcon Heavy’s next (and fourth) launch is unlikely to occur until late next year, a gap of at least 15-17 months.
Announced roughly four months after Falcon Heavy’s inaugural February 2018 launch debut, the USAF contracted with SpaceX to launch the ~6350 kg (14,000 lb) AFSPC-52 satellite no earlier than (NET) September 2020. In February 2019, Department of Defense contract announcements revealed that SpaceX had been awarded three military launch contracts, two for the National Reconnaissance Office (NROL-85 & NROL-87) and one for the USAF (AFSPC-44), all tentatively scheduled to launch in 2021.
First reported by Spaceflight Now, Col. Robert Bongiovi – director of the launch enterprise systems directorate at the Air Force’s Space and Missile Systems Center (AFSMC) – recently indicated that AFSPC-44 – not AFSPC-52 – is now scheduled to be the US military’s first post-certification Falcon Heavy launch. 52 and 44 have essentially swapped spots, with AFSPC-44 moving forward to NET Q4 (fall) 2020 while AFSPC-52 has been delayed to NET Q2 (spring) 2021.
The trouble with launch gaps
Although Bongiovi did not explicitly state that AFSPC-44 will be SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy launch, there are no publicly-disclosed missions set to launch on the rocket in the interim. That could theoretically change, especially if SpaceX has plans to launch the massive rocket in support of an internal Starlink mission or even something more exotic, but the loss of both Block 5 center core B1055 and B1057 means that the company will have to build an entirely new center core.
SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy lead times are far superior to competitor ULA’s Delta IV Heavy production line, but the process of manufacturing new center cores is still quite lengthy. Critically, Falcon Heavy Block 5 center cores require strengthened octawebs, custom interstages, and propellant tanks that are significantly thicker than those used on Falcon 9. For all intents and purposes, a center core is a totally different rocket relative to a Falcon 9 booster, the latter being SpaceX’s primary focus at the company’s assembly line-style Hawthorne factory. It’s theoretically possible for a dedicated Falcon Heavy center core build to be expedited or leapfrogged forward in the production queue, but most long-lead Falcon 9 booster hardware physically cannot be redirected to speed up center core production.
Unless SpaceX was already in the process of building a new center core prior B1057’s unsuccessful landing attempt, it’s safe to assume that the next custom Falcon Heavy booster is unlikely to be completed until early 2020, if not later. In theory, this means that Falcon Heavy could be dormant for no less than 16 months between STP-2 and its next launch. Traditionally, that sort of lengthy gap between launches has been frowned upon by NASA, ULA, and oversight groups like GAO. If a given rocket doesn’t launch for a year or more, it can potentially pose a risk to reliability and raise costs as its production and launch teams have no satisfactory way to fully preserve their technical expertise.
This can be compared to attempting to become an expert at a musical instrument while only having access to said instrument one or two months a year, essentially impossible. In fact, at one point, NASA hoped to require its Space Launch System (SLS) rocket be able to launch no less than once per year, partly motivated by a desire to mitigate some of the deterioration that can follow extremely low launch cadences. Years later, financial constraints and years upon years of delays and budget overruns have made such a cadence effectively impossible for SLS/Orion, but the fact remains that launching a rocket just once every 18-24 months is likely to inflate both costs and risks.
Thankfully, SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy could scarcely be more different than NASA’s SLS and the retired Space Shuttle it derives most of its hardware from. Even if all things are held equal and not flying a Falcon Heavy center core for 16+ months increases risk and cost, center cores are still heavily derived from Falcon 9 booster technology, including plumbing, avionics, attitude control thrusters, Merlin 1D engines, landing legs, and launch facilities.
Furthermore, the center core is just one of five distinct assemblies that make up a given Falcon Heavy. Both side boosters are effectively Falcon 9 Block 5 boosters with nose cones instead of interstages and slight modifications to support booster attachment hardware, while the upper stage and payload fairing are the same for all Falcon launches. In other words, SpaceX’s workforce will continue to build, launch, land, and reuse dozens of Falcon 9 boosters – as well as upper stages payload fairings – between now and Falcon Heavy Flight 4, even if it’s NET Q4 2020. In a worst-case scenario, SpaceX production and launch staff will be unfamiliar and inexperienced with maybe 20% of Falcon Heavy – at least in a very rough sense. Even then, much of that unfamiliarity may still be tempered by the fact that Falcon Heavy center cores share a large amount of commonality with the Falcon 9 first stages SpaceX’s workforce will remain deeply familiar with.
Indeed, Falcon Heavy’s second launch has already demonstrated this to some extent, occurring without issue more than 14 months after the rocket’s inaugural launch. It seems that the only real loss incurred by a ~16-month delay between Flights 3 and 4 will be having to wait another year (or more) to witness Falcon Heavy’s next launch.
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Elon Musk appeared on the Moonshots podcast with Peter Diamandis today to discuss AGI, U.S. vs. China, Tesla, and some other interesting topics, but there was some discussion about the upcoming unveiling of the Roadster, the company’s electric supercar that will arrive several years after it was initially slated for release.
Musk made some pretty amazing claims about the Roadster; we already know it is supposed to be lightning-fast and could even hover, if Tesla gets everything to happen the way it wants to. However, the car has some pretty crazy capabilities, some of which have not even been revealed.
On the podcast, Musk said:
“This is not a…safety is not the main goal. If you buy a Ferrari, safety is not the number one goal. I say, if safety is your number one goal, do not buy the Roadster…We’ll aspire not to kill anyone in this car. It’ll be the best of the last of the human-driven cars. The best of the last.”
🚨 Elon on the Roadster unveiling, scheduled for April 1:
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 6, 2026
Musk makes a good point: people who buy expensive sports cars with ridiculous top speeds and acceleration rates do not buy them to be safe. They hope they are safe in case of an emergency or crash, but safety is not at the forefront of their thoughts, because nobody buys a car thinking they’ll crash it.
The Roadster is truly going to push the limits and capabilities of passenger vehicles; there’s no doubt about that. Tesla plans to show off the new version car for the first time on April 1, and Musk has only hinted at what is possible with it.
Musk said back in November:
“Whether it’s good or bad, it will be unforgettable. My friend Peter Thiel once reflected that the future was supposed to have flying cars, but we don’t have flying cars. I think if Peter wants a flying car, he should be able to buy one…I think it has a shot at being the most memorable product unveiling ever. [It will be unveiled] hopefully before the end of the year. You know, we need to make sure that it works. This is some crazy technology in this car. Let’s just put it this way: if you took all the James Bond cars and combined them, it’s crazier than that.”
Production is set to begin between 12 and 18 months after the unveiling, which would put the car out sometime in 2027. Hopefully, Tesla is able to stay on track with the scheduling of the Roadster; many people have been waiting a long time for it.
News
Tesla launches hiring for Robotaxi program in its twentieth country
Overall, the hiring signals Tesla’s aggressive timeline for global dominance in autonomous mobility.
Tesla has launched a hiring initiative for its Robotaxi program in its twentieth country, as the company posted two new jobs in Thailand this week.
Tesla is hiring in Bangkok and Kowloon for the Vehicle Operator position, which is related to data collection, and is the first in Thailand, but the twentieth country overall, as the company tries to expand into other markets.
🚨 BREAKING: Tesla is hiring additional full-time Vehicle Operators in Bangkok, Thailand.
Previous openings were 6-month, part-time roles. These are equivalent to AI Safety Operator roles in the U.S. pic.twitter.com/R6LzoU1bos— Tesla Yoda (@teslayoda) January 5, 2026
Tesla has had active job postings for Vehicle Operator positions in the United States, India, Israel, Taiwan, Germany, the Czech Republic, Hungary, the UK, Finland, Switzerland, Sweden, the Netherlands, Austria, Spain, Norway, Italy, and Turkey in past listings.
These postings are not all currently available, likely because the roles have been filled.
Thailand is the most recent, and broadens the company’s potential path to expanding its ride-hailing program, which is only active in the United States in Austin, Texas, and the California Bay Area, so far.
These roles typically involve data collection, which assists in improving Autopilot and Full Self-Driving operation. Tesla’s self-driving programs utilize real-world data that is accumulated and stored, observing vehicle and traffic behavior, as well as tendencies that are performed by human drivers to help increase safety and overall performance.
Overall, the hiring signals Tesla’s aggressive timeline for global dominance in autonomous mobility. Although the company has several high-profile rivals and competitors in the field, it has established itself as a main player and a leader in the development of autonomous technology, especially in the U.S., as its FSD suite is refined on almost a weekly basis.
The Full Self-Driving suite is available in seven countries and territories currently, including the U.S., Canada, China, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Australia, and New Zealand. Its biggest goal for expansion is currently the European market, where regulatory hurdles have been the main bottleneck prolonging its launch on the continent.
Tesla has performed months of testing in various European countries, including France and Spain, and does have support in some areas from various regulatory agencies. However, the company is hoping to get through this red tape and offer its suite in Europe for the first time, hopefully this year.
News
Tesla China rolls out Model Y upgrades, launches low-interest financing
These strategies are aimed at improving the ownership experience and keeping vehicle pricing competitive in the world’s largest electric vehicle market.
Tesla has rolled out minor updates to the five-seat Model Y in China, upgrading the vehicle’s center display to a higher-resolution 16-inch 2K screen. The electric vehicle maker also introduced attractive financing options, including 7-year low-interest rates, to offset the new purchase tax on EVs.
These strategies are aimed at improving the ownership experience and keeping vehicle pricing competitive in the world’s largest electric vehicle market.
Five-seat Model Y gets larger, better display
With its recent update, all three variants of the five-seat Model Y now feature an upgraded 16-inch 2K resolution center display, which replaces the vehicle’s previous 15.4-inch 1080p panel. This screen was already used in the six-seat Model Y L, and it offered improved visual clarity. Tesla China has also updated the Model Y’s headliner to black, giving the vehicle a sleeker appearance.
Prices of the five-seat Model Y remain unchanged at RMB 263,500, RMB 288,500, and RMB 313,500 for the respective trims. This update enhances the cabin experience as domestic rivals are already adopting high-resolution screens. As noted in a CNEV Post report, some domestic automakers have begun rolling out vehicles equipped with 3K-resolution displays.
New financing offers
Tesla also launched ultra-long-term financing offers for its locally produced models in China, which include the Model 3 sedan, the five-seat Model Y, and the six-seat Model Y L, through January 31, 2026. The 7-year option features an annualized fee rate as low as 0.5%, which is equivalent to 0.98% interest. This is expected to save customers up to RMB 33,479 ($4,790) compared to standard rates.
A 5-year zero-interest plan is also available, and it has been extended to the Tesla Model Y L for the first time. These incentives help offset China’s new 5% purchase tax on New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in 2026-2027. Some of Tesla’s rivals in China have announced in recent months that they would be covering the purchase tax owed by buyers early this year.
Elon Musk just said some crazy stuff about the Tesla Roadster
Tesla launches hiring for Robotaxi program in its twentieth country
