News
SpaceX Starlink satellite constellation aims to become world’s largest after next launch
In a sign of things to come next year, SpaceX’s next – and third – 60-satellite Starlink launch is officially on the books, and – if all goes as planned – could make the company the proud owner of the world’s largest operational satellite constellation.
On May 24th, Falcon 9 lifted off for the first time ever on a dedicated Starlink launch, placing 60 ‘v0.9’ prototype satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), where they deployed solar arrays and fired up their own electric krypton thrusters to reach their operational ~550 km (340 mi) orbits. Of those 60 prototypes, several were intentionally deorbited while another handful suffered unintended failures, while 51 (85%) ultimately reached that final orbit and began operations.
Previously expected in mid-October, unspecified delays pushed SpaceX’s next Starlink launch – deemed Starlink-1, the first launch of ‘v1.0’ satellites – into November. On November 11th, Falcon 9 B1048 and a flight-proven payload fairing lifted off with 60 more Starlink satellites, also marking the first time a Falcon 9 booster completed four orbital launches and the first operational reuse of a recovered fairing. Upgraded with four times the overall bandwidth, improved structures, new Ka-band antennas, and more steerable ‘beams’ on each of those antennas, those 60 Starlink v1.0 satellites rapidly came online and began raising their orbits.
This time around, SpaceX received FCC approval to test satellites at a substantially lower altitude of ~350 km (220 mi) and launched to a parking orbit of just 280 km (175 mi), ensuring that any debris or failed spacecraft will reenter Earth’s atmosphere in just a matter of months while also completely avoiding added risk to the International Space Station (ISS) (~400 km). After a brisk ten or so days of active propulsion, 55 of those 60 satellites have raised their orbits to ~350 km, while ~20 of those 55 appear to be aiming for a final altitude somewhat higher, likely the start of a separate orbital plane.
The moment that Starlink-1 satellites began to arrive and stabilize at their 350-km operational orbits, nearly all of SpaceX’s 50 operational v0.9 satellites began lowering their orbits, potentially signaling a move down to Starlink-1’s operational altitude, or even an intentional deorbit of the entire prototype tranche (far less likely).
From nothing to #1
The same day that several dozen Starlink-1 satellites finished the climb up to their operational orbits, SpaceX announced media accreditation for its next Starlink launch, presumed to be Starlink-2. According to SpaceX, the mission is targeted for the last two weeks of December 2019, a schedule that will tighten as it gets closer. Previously expected to launch in early November, as few as two weeks after Starlink-1, Starlink-2 has suffered similar delays but still appears to be on track for 2019.
It’s assumed that Starlink-2 – like both dedicated missions preceding it – will launch 60 Starlink satellites. If that is, in fact, the case, the mission could mark a surprising but fully-expected milestone: with >170 functional satellites in orbit, SpaceX might become the proud owner of the world’s largest operational satellite constellation. Excluding two Tintin prototypes launched in February 2018 and 8 failed Starlink v0.9 spacecraft, a perfect Starlink-2 launch would raise SpaceX’s operational constellation to 172 satellites.
The only satellite operator anywhere close to those numbers is Planet Labs, an Earth observation analytics and satellite production company that has launched >400 satellites in its lifetime. Of those ~400 spacecraft, it’s believed that ~150 were operational as of October 2019 and Planet has another 12 Dove observation satellites scheduled to launch on November 27th. In simple terms, this means that SpaceX may become the world’s largest satellite operator after Starlink-2 and it all but guarantees that that will be the case after Starlink-3, a mission that will likely follow just weeks later.
Once SpaceX passes that milestone, it’s all but guaranteed that Starlink will retain the title of world’s largest satellite constellation for the indefinite future. According to SpaceX COO and President Gwynne Shotwell, as many as 24 Starlink launches are planned for 2020, and SpaceX’s burgeoning Washington-state satellite factory may soon be capable of supporting the unprecedented volume of production such a cadence will require. Even assuming rocky development, it’s hard to picture SpaceX’s next-generation Starship rocket taking more than two additional years to be ready for routine orbital missions to LEO, each of which should be able to place 400 Starlink satellites in orbit.
OneWeb is by far the closest thing SpaceX has to a serious Starlink competitor and its first operational launch of ~30 satellites has recently suffered delays, moving from December to late-January or February 2020. Roughly monthly launches (each with ~30 satellites) will nominally follow that first launch. After Starlink-2 or Starlink-3, the only conceivable ways that SpaceX could ever lose the title of world’s largest satellite operator would require catastrophic failure(s) grounding Falcon 9 and/or Starship for >1 year or outright bankruptcy and liquidation, neither of which seem particularly likely.
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Investor's Corner
Tesla investor Calpers opposes Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award
Musk’s 2025 pay plan will be decided at Tesla’s 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, which will be held on November 6 in Giga Texas.
One of the United States’ largest pension funds, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (Calpers), has stated that it will be voting against Elon Musk’s 2025 Tesla CEO performance award.
Musk’s 2025 pay plan will be decided at Tesla’s 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, which will be held on November 6 in Giga Texas. Company executives have stated that the upcoming vote will decide Tesla’s fate in the years to come.
Why Calpers opposes Musk’s 2025 performance award
In a statement shared with Bloomberg News, a Calpers spokesperson criticized the scale of Musk’s proposed deal. Calpers currently holds about 5 million Tesla shares, giving its stance meaningful influence among institutional investors.
“The CEO pay package proposed by Tesla is larger than pay packages for CEOs in comparable companies by many orders of magnitude. It would also further concentrate power in a single shareholder,” the spokesperson stated.
This is not the first time Calpers has opposed a major Musk pay deal. The fund previously voted against a $56 billion package proposed for Musk and criticized the CEO’s 2018 performance-based plan, which was perceived as unrealistic due to its ambitious nature at the time. Musk’s 2018 pay plan was later struck down by a Delaware court, though Tesla is currently appealing the decision.
Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award
While Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award will result in him becoming a trillionaire, he would not be able to receive any compensation from Tesla unless aggressive operational and financial targets are met. For Musk to receive his full compensation, for example, he would have to grow Tesla’s market cap from today’s $1.1 trillion to $8.5 trillion, effectively making it the world’s most valuable company by a mile.
Musk has also maintained that his 2025 performance award is not about compensation. It’s about his controlling stake at Tesla. “If I can just get kicked out in the future by activist shareholder advisory firms who don’t even own Tesla shares themselves, I’m not comfortable with that future,” Musk wrote in a post on X.
News
Tesla Cybercab is heading to China’s import expo
The event will take place from November 5–10 at Shanghai’s National Exhibition and Convention Center.
Tesla will make its return to the China International Import Expo (CIIE) this November, marking its first appearance at the event since 2022. The U.S. electric vehicle maker confirmed it will showcase its highly anticipated Cybercab, which will make its Asia-Pacific debut during the event.
The expo will take place from November 5–10 at Shanghai’s National Exhibition and Convention Center.
Tesla Cybercab in China
Tesla announced its participation in the event on its official Weibo account. As per the electric vehicle maker, it would be occupying Booth A3-03 in Hall 2.1 at the National Exhibition and Convention Center. As noted in a CNEV Post report, the Cybercab, the company’s dedicated autonomous two-seater Robotaxi, will be making its Asia-Pacific debut at the CIIE as well.
The company shared a graphic on Chinese social media which showed an image featuring several Tesla products, such as the Cybercab, Optimus, and Megapack batteries. The graphic also featured a building that read “Master Plan Part IV.”
Tesla’s momentum in China
Tesla’s return comes after skipping the event last year. Interestingly enough, Tesla attended the event from 2018 all the way to 2023. Tesla’s return to the CIIE then aligns with the company’s efforts to attract consumer interest in the world’s most competitive electric vehicle market.
The Cybercab’s presence in the event could suggest that Tesla might be interested in bringing its Robotaxi to the country. This is quite interesting as China is already home to several autonomous ride-hailing services, though Tesla’s pure vision approach, which focuses on artificial intelligence and cameras, is quite unique. So far, Tesla has only rolled out its autonomous ride-hailing services in Austin, Texas, and the Bay Area, California.
News
Tesla Semi factory looks nearly complete
Based on recent images taken of the facility, it appears that the Semi’s initial production might be right on schedule.
The Tesla Semi factory looks like it is nearing completion. Based on recent images taken of the facility, it appears that the Semi’s initial production might be right on schedule.
This was, at least, as per recent observations from a veteran Tesla watcher who has long been chronicling the progress of the facility.
Tesla Semi factory today
As per longtime Tesla Semi advocate @HinrichsZane, the Class 8 all-electric truck’s factory in Nevada looks almost completed. The facility’s exterior looks finished, which suggests that much of the work being done today is likely focused on the factory’s interior and equipment.
This was highlighted in recent photos taken by the drone operator, which show that the facility’s parking lots are now filled with vehicles. A photo taken before dawn also highlighted just how refined the factory has become over the past months. Needless to say, it appears that the factory is all but ready to start the initial production of the Tesla Semi.
Deliveries and targets
Tesla has stated that the Semi factory will start producing the Class 8 all-electric truck by 2026. This was stressed by Elon Musk in a previous comment on X, when he stated that “Tesla Semi will be in volume production next year.” Once ramped, the facility will be capable of producing about 50,000 Tesla Semi units annually. This should help the Semi disrupt and potentially saturate the United States’ transport sector.
Progress in the Tesla Semi factory has been notable in the past months. Just a few months ago, drone footage of the site revealed that Tesla was shipping extremely large production equipment into the facility. These included what appeared to be a gigantic stamping machine that was so large and heavy that it was shipped to the Semi factory using two diesel trucks and a triple trailer.
Tesla investor Calpers opposes Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award
Tesla Cybercab is heading to China’s import expo
Tesla Semi factory looks nearly complete
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