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SpaceX Starlink satellite constellation aims to become world’s largest after next launch

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In a sign of things to come next year, SpaceX’s next – and third – 60-satellite Starlink launch is officially on the books, and – if all goes as planned – could make the company the proud owner of the world’s largest operational satellite constellation.

On May 24th, Falcon 9 lifted off for the first time ever on a dedicated Starlink launch, placing 60 ‘v0.9’ prototype satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), where they deployed solar arrays and fired up their own electric krypton thrusters to reach their operational ~550 km (340 mi) orbits. Of those 60 prototypes, several were intentionally deorbited while another handful suffered unintended failures, while 51 (85%) ultimately reached that final orbit and began operations.

A stack of 60 Starlink v0.9 satellites are prepared for their orbital launch debut in May 2019. (SpaceX)
60 v0.9 Starlink satellites ahead of their May 2019 debut. (SpaceX)

Previously expected in mid-October, unspecified delays pushed SpaceX’s next Starlink launch – deemed Starlink-1, the first launch of ‘v1.0’ satellites – into November. On November 11th, Falcon 9 B1048 and a flight-proven payload fairing lifted off with 60 more Starlink satellites, also marking the first time a Falcon 9 booster completed four orbital launches and the first operational reuse of a recovered fairing. Upgraded with four times the overall bandwidth, improved structures, new Ka-band antennas, and more steerable ‘beams’ on each of those antennas, those 60 Starlink v1.0 satellites rapidly came online and began raising their orbits.

This time around, SpaceX received FCC approval to test satellites at a substantially lower altitude of ~350 km (220 mi) and launched to a parking orbit of just 280 km (175 mi), ensuring that any debris or failed spacecraft will reenter Earth’s atmosphere in just a matter of months while also completely avoiding added risk to the International Space Station (ISS) (~400 km). After a brisk ten or so days of active propulsion, 55 of those 60 satellites have raised their orbits to ~350 km, while ~20 of those 55 appear to be aiming for a final altitude somewhat higher, likely the start of a separate orbital plane.

SpaceX’s 60 Starlink-1 satellites as of November 24th.
60 Starlink v1.0 satellites prepare for flight in November 2019. (SpaceX)

The moment that Starlink-1 satellites began to arrive and stabilize at their 350-km operational orbits, nearly all of SpaceX’s 50 operational v0.9 satellites began lowering their orbits, potentially signaling a move down to Starlink-1’s operational altitude, or even an intentional deorbit of the entire prototype tranche (far less likely).

From nothing to #1

The same day that several dozen Starlink-1 satellites finished the climb up to their operational orbits, SpaceX announced media accreditation for its next Starlink launch, presumed to be Starlink-2. According to SpaceX, the mission is targeted for the last two weeks of December 2019, a schedule that will tighten as it gets closer. Previously expected to launch in early November, as few as two weeks after Starlink-1, Starlink-2 has suffered similar delays but still appears to be on track for 2019.

SpaceX breaks over record-breaking Falcon 9 booster B1048.4, the last step before transport to a nearby hangar for inspection and refurbishment. The booster’s fifth launch could very well be Starlink-2. (Richard Angle)

It’s assumed that Starlink-2 – like both dedicated missions preceding it – will launch 60 Starlink satellites. If that is, in fact, the case, the mission could mark a surprising but fully-expected milestone: with >170 functional satellites in orbit, SpaceX might become the proud owner of the world’s largest operational satellite constellation. Excluding two Tintin prototypes launched in February 2018 and 8 failed Starlink v0.9 spacecraft, a perfect Starlink-2 launch would raise SpaceX’s operational constellation to 172 satellites.

The only satellite operator anywhere close to those numbers is Planet Labs, an Earth observation analytics and satellite production company that has launched >400 satellites in its lifetime. Of those ~400 spacecraft, it’s believed that ~150 were operational as of October 2019 and Planet has another 12 Dove observation satellites scheduled to launch on November 27th. In simple terms, this means that SpaceX may become the world’s largest satellite operator after Starlink-2 and it all but guarantees that that will be the case after Starlink-3, a mission that will likely follow just weeks later.

Seven generations of Planet Lab’s workhorse Dove satellites, each capable of serving up dozens of gigabytes of 3m/px-imagery daily. (Planet Labs)
An artist’s impression of SpaceX’s Starlink constellation in orbit. (SpaceX – Teslarati)

Once SpaceX passes that milestone, it’s all but guaranteed that Starlink will retain the title of world’s largest satellite constellation for the indefinite future. According to SpaceX COO and President Gwynne Shotwell, as many as 24 Starlink launches are planned for 2020, and SpaceX’s burgeoning Washington-state satellite factory may soon be capable of supporting the unprecedented volume of production such a cadence will require. Even assuming rocky development, it’s hard to picture SpaceX’s next-generation Starship rocket taking more than two additional years to be ready for routine orbital missions to LEO, each of which should be able to place 400 Starlink satellites in orbit.

OneWeb is by far the closest thing SpaceX has to a serious Starlink competitor and its first operational launch of ~30 satellites has recently suffered delays, moving from December to late-January or February 2020. Roughly monthly launches (each with ~30 satellites) will nominally follow that first launch. After Starlink-2 or Starlink-3, the only conceivable ways that SpaceX could ever lose the title of world’s largest satellite operator would require catastrophic failure(s) grounding Falcon 9 and/or Starship for >1 year or outright bankruptcy and liquidation, neither of which seem particularly likely.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla shows what Roadster drivers will see on screen before thruster activation

Tesla’s Roadster video reveals a fighter jet inspired cockpit with a 5,500 PSI thruster gauge.

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The next generation Tesla Roadster’s touchscreen, shown in Tesla’s first official look at the car’s interface. (Credit: Tesla/X)

Tesla has given future owners their clearest look yet at the cockpit of its next generation Roadster. In a 34 second video posted to X on Friday afternoon, the company walked through the car’s touchscreen with a caption: “Inspired by fighter jet cockpits, Roadster’s interface was designed around the pilot.”

The clip opens on a black screen with red graphics and a 3D wireframe of the car, which sits beside the Roadster’s squared off yoke. Tapping parts of the model brings up controls for the rear wing, including low drag and high downforce positions, along with a charging page with a charge limit bar and a small music player. A row of tabs along the bottom reads Home, Vehicle, Listen, Climate and Navigate.

Most of the video is spent in Track Mode. The dashboard shows a live circuit map, a list of session lap times, brake and motor temperatures, and pressure and temperature readouts for each tire. A setup page lets the driver pick Auto, Low Drag, High Downforce or Custom aero modes, adjust aero balance and brake balance, and switch stability and traction control off. Along the bottom, a status bar reads “Thruster · 5,500 PSI” next to a “Boost Ready” indicator.

That gauge ties the software to the hardware Tesla showed off near Waco, Texas on October 15. The Thrust and Rocket versions use cold gas thrusters fed by carbon overwrapped pressure vessels, and Tesla lists 0 to 60 mph times of under 0.9 seconds and under 0.59 seconds for them, as Teslarati detailed in its breakdown of the three Roadster configurations. The base Performance car relies on a fan and ground sealing system for grip, and the aero settings on screen match the active wings and suction setup covered in our look at how the Roadster generates downforce.

The Roadster layout is a departure from the rest of Tesla’s lineup. Instead of a map centered screen, the Roadster puts the car itself at the center of the home page, and Tesla’s Roadster page lists two smaller forward displays alongside the main touchscreen. Tesla has not said whether any of the Track Mode telemetry will make its way to the Model 3 Performance or other vehicles.

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The interface could still change before deliveries. Elon Musk said at the event that Roadster production will begin in 2028, and Tesla says the flagship Rocket version is not approved for public road use. Reservations are open with a $50,000 payment, while Thrust is listed as a limited release and Rocket is invite only.

Those who want to see the car in person will get their first chance this weekend. The Roadster goes on display in the lobby of the Petersen Automotive Museum in Los Angeles from October 24 to 27, according to Sawyer Merritt, the first time the public will be able to view it up close.

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Tesla reveals Optimus Academy, where robots teach themselves

Tesla has begun building production quality Optimus robots in Fremont and revealed its training plan.

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Concept rendering of Tesla Optimus in mass production

Tesla has started building Optimus on the high volume line it set up inside its Fremont factory, and the company says the robots coming off it are the first that meet the bar for a real product. “The bots coming off this line are the first production-quality bots that we have manufactured,” Tesla wrote in its third quarter shareholder letter, adding that it has “proven that the current manufacturing process for Optimus is suitable for a commercial product.”

The line sits in space that built the Model S and Model X until this spring. Tesla cleared the old vehicle line in 46 days, as Teslarati reported in July, to make room for robot production sized for one million units a year. On Wednesday’s earnings call, Elon Musk said most of the equipment for that capacity is already in Fremont, with output set to climb toward roughly 20,000 robots a week as the line ramps.

Musk described the ramp as a classic S curve. “The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope,” he said. The team is now refining the robot’s AI, electromechanical design, reliability and service life, and Musk expects that work to be finished by the end of next year, when Tesla plans to start delivering Optimus to outside companies for dangerous, repetitive and around the clock jobs.

The most interesting part of the call was how Tesla plans to teach the robots. Its cars send real driving data back to the AI team from millions of vehicles, but Optimus has no fleet like that yet. “A big difference with Optimus versus the cars is we don’t have this vast fleet of cars from which we can gather training data,” Musk said. Tesla’s answer is an Optimus Academy, where 10,000 to 20,000 robots will practice a wide range of tasks and feed what they learn into the next version of the model. Every unit off the Fremont line becomes a source of that training data.

Smarter hardware is on the way too. Tesla plans to put its AI5 chip into Optimus next year, and Musk said a new Optimus video should arrive within one or two months showing the robot completing tasks driven by AI rather than preprogrammed motions. He took aim at rival humanoid demos that only run scripted routines, saying those would not hold up in the real world.

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The supply chain is lining up behind the program. In September, Tesla certified Tuopu, Joyson and Sanhua as mass production partners for Optimus components. A far larger Optimus factory is also rising at Giga Texas, where drone footage from Joe Tegtmeyer showed the steel frame nearing completion, and Musk has pegged that plant’s long term target at 10 million robots a year.

Tesla executives also said Optimus production costs are trending toward the expected manufacturing cost of Cybercab, a sign the robot is being engineered for volume from the start. The hands remain the toughest piece of the design, a point Musk also made at the X Takeover event earlier this month, as Teslarati covered at the time, and that is where much of the current engineering effort is focused.

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The Starship moon landing number NASA and Elon Musk can’t agree on

Musk disputes NASA estimate of 22 Starship launches for Moon landing, predicting 6 to 8.

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Concept rendering of SpaceX Starship landing on the moon via Grok

Elon Musk is disputing a new NASA safety panel estimate of how many Starship launches it will take to put astronauts on the Moon, saying the real number will be less than half the panel’s figure.

On Thursday, NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel held its quarterly public meeting. Panel member Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut, flagged the fueling process for SpaceX’s lunar lander as a major risk for Artemis IV, the mission planned to land a crew on the Moon in 2028. “We need to keep our eyes on numerous required fuelings for the lander,” Precourt said, according to Ars Technica. “I think the last estimate is around 22 flights.”

Ars Technica’s Eric Berger posted the comment on X, and Musk replied. “That’s way too high,” Musk wrote. “Actual number will be more like 6 to 8.”

The disagreement comes down to a basic problem with sending a ship as large as Starship to the Moon. Starship burns nearly all of its propellant just reaching Earth orbit, so it cannot continue on to the Moon without stopping for a refill. SpaceX’s answer is a gas station in space. First, a Starship that works as a storage tank, called a depot, is launched into orbit. Then a series of tanker Starships launch one at a time, dock with the depot and pump their leftover propellant into it. Once the depot is full, the lunar lander version of Starship launches, docks, fills up and heads for the Moon.

Every tanker trip is its own full rocket launch, which is why the count matters. More launches mean more time, more cost and more chances for something to go wrong before astronauts ever leave Earth. Berger estimated that even if SpaceX reaches twice weekly Starship launches by the end of 2027, filling a depot at the panel’s number would still take roughly three months.

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How many tankers are needed depends mostly on how much propellant each one can carry to orbit and how much is lost along the way. Starship’s fuel and oxygen are stored at extremely cold temperatures, and some of it slowly boils off while waiting in orbit. More is lost in each transfer. NASA appears to be working from what Starship can lift today, while Musk’s range assumes a more capable rocket.

Musk has pushed back on higher counts before. In 2021, after a government document suggested 16 launches, he called that “extremely unlikely” and said eight tankers would be the most required.

Much of the answer depends on hardware SpaceX has not finished flying. As Teslarati noted earlier this year, the company plans to carry out the refueling process with its upgraded V3 Starship, and Precourt described Artemis IV as carrying “a large number of firsts.” He also praised NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman’s team for working to clear obstacles for both SpaceX and Blue Origin, whose Blue Moon lander does not rely on orbital refueling for its first mission.

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