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SpaceX repairing heat shield, reinstalling Raptors on first orbital-class Starship
SpaceX has begun reinstalling three of the six Raptor engines that will power the first orbital-class Starship and repairing the heat shield that will hopefully protect it on its first trip to space.
Known as Starship 20 or S20, the 50m (~165 ft) tall steel rocket prototype has been stationed at one of SpaceX’s two suborbital testing pads since August 13th. No testing has been done, though, and a small army of SpaceX technicians and engineers have instead spent the last three or so weeks effectively turning a collection of steel tanks, tubes, and parts into a functional rocket. While it’s unclear why SpaceX chose to do that outfitting work at an unsheltered launch pad, new activity suggests that it may be almost complete.
Exactly one month ago, SpaceX stacked Starship S20 on top of Super Heavy Booster 4 (B4) on August 6th, briefly creating the largest rocket in history and completing a fit test that was admittedly just as much a photo op. Ship 20 was rapidly destacked and returned to SpaceX’s Starbase factory, where all six of its Raptor engines were removed. About a week later, Ship 20 returned to the pad and has remained installed on Suborbital Pad B ever since.
At the time, the implication was that SpaceX had removed Ship 20’s engines to allow the prototype to complete cryogenic proof testing with hydraulic thrust simulators. However, despite having carefully modified Pad B over several weeks for that exact purpose, those modifications were rapidly removed before Ship 20’s second rollout. Precluding a proof test with thrust simulation, the next logical conclusion was that SpaceX would still perform a cryogenic proof test before reinstalling Ship 20’s Raptors and moving on to a static fire campaign.
Now, even that appears to have been p1recluded. Instead, as if Ship 20 were the second or third or fourth in a series of prototypes, SpaceX rolled three center Raptors to Pad B on September 5th and began installing the engines on Starship on the 6th. It’s hard to say anything with confidence given how chaotically Starship S20’s to-be-determined qualification testing has changed in the last several weeks but, with plenty of uncertainty, Raptor installation implies that the vehicle will perform its first ambient pressure and cryogenic proof tests with engines installed.
It remains to be seen if Ship 20’s three vacuum-optimized Raptor engines will also be installed over the next few days (seemingly the logical assumption) or if SpaceX will instead complete proof tests and center Raptor static fire testing before finally moving into new territory. SpaceX has never static fired more than three Raptors at once and certainly never tested multiple Raptor Vacuum (RVac) engines in close proximity – let alone all six simultaneously.
Meanwhile, much of the focus of the last few weeks appears to have been on finishing Ship 20 plumbing and avionics wire runs, though it’s hard to say exactly what has been done. What is extremely visible and easy to follow, though, is the process of finishing the first orbital-class Starship heat shield and repairing a few hundred tiles broken during its pathfinder installation. SpaceX has installed 500-1000+ tiles on flown Starship prototypes like SN15 but the company has never come close to the ~15,000 needed to cover the entire windward side of the world’s largest rocket upper stage.
SpaceX has undertaken that process for the first time over the last six or so weeks and unsurprisingly seen a number of successes and failures. At some point along the way, a significant fraction of the ceramic, dinner-plate-sized tiles SpaceX technicians installed chipped, broke, shattered, or ran into other fitment issues. Over the last month or so, a great deal of progress has been made fixing those problem tiles and SpaceX has also more or less completed tile installation on the angular ‘aerocovers’ that protect Starship’s flap mechanisms – requiring dozens of custom tiles with complex shapes and curves.
As of September 6th, Starship S20’s heat shield appears to be around 95% complete and the installation of Raptor engines implies that the rocket’s plumbing, avionics, and tankage are also nearly finished. In other words, after many weeks of work, SpaceX’s first orbital-class Starship prototype could be ready to kick off cryoproof and static fire testing just a week or so (and maybe less) from now. Stay tuned for updates!
Elon Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab
“And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface,” Musk said.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk dropped a massive bomb about the Cybercab, which is the company’s fully autonomous ride-hailing vehicle that will enter production later this year.
The Cybercab was unveiled back in October 2024 at the company’s “We, Robot” event in Los Angeles, and is among the major catalysts for the company’s growth in the coming years. It is expected to push Tesla into a major growth phase, especially as the automaker is transitioning into more of an AI and Robotics company than anything else.
The Cybercab will enable completely autonomous ride-hailing for Tesla, and although its other vehicles will also be capable of this technology, the Cybercab is slightly different. It will have no steering wheel or pedals, and will allow two occupants to travel from Point A to Point B with zero responsibilities within the car.
Tesla shares epic 2025 recap video, confirms start of Cybercab production
Details on the Cybercab are pretty face value at this point: we know Tesla is enabling 1-2 passengers to ride in it at a time, and this strategy was based on statistics that show most ride-hailing trips have no more than two occupants. It will also have in-vehicle entertainment options accessible from the center touchscreen.
It will also have wireless charging capabilities, which were displayed at “We, Robot,” and there could be more features that will be highly beneficial to riders, offering a full-fledged autonomous experience.
Musk dropped a big hint that there is much more to the Cybercab than what we know, as a post on X said that “there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface.”
And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 2, 2026
As the Cybercab is expected to enter production later this year, Tesla is surely going to include a handful of things they have not yet revealed to the public.
Musk seems to be indicating that some of the features will make it even more groundbreaking, and the idea is to enable a truly autonomous experience from start to finish for riders. Everything from climate control to emergency systems, and more, should be included with the car.
It seems more likely than not that Tesla will make the Cybercab its smartest vehicle so far, as if its current lineup is not already extremely intelligent, user-friendly, and intuitive.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026,” Ives wrote.
Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush released a new note on Friday morning just after the company released production and delivery figures for Q4 and the full year of 2025, stating that the numbers, while slightly underwhelming, are “better than feared” and as “a step in the right direction.”
Tesla reported production of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, while 1,654,667 vehicles were produced and 1,636,129 cars were delivered for the full year.
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Interestingly, the company posted its own consensus figures that were compiled from various firms on its website a few days ago, where expectations were set at 1,640,752 cars for the year. Tesla fell about 4,000 units short of that. One of the areas where Tesla excelled was energy deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the year.
🚨 Wedbush’s Dan Ives has released a new note on Tesla $TSLA:
“Tesla announced its FY4Q25 delivery numbers this morning coming in at 418.2k vehicles slightly below the company’s consensus delivery estimate of 422.9k but much better than the whisper numbers of ~410k as the…
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 2, 2026
In terms of vehicle deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla certainly has some things to work through if it wants to return to growth in that aspect, especially with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit in the U.S. and “continuous headwinds” for the company in Europe.
However, Ives also believes that, given the delivery numbers, which were on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned well for a strong 2026, especially with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab development, and energy:
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We look forward to hearing more at the company’s 4Q25 call on January 28th. AI Valuation – The Focus Throughout 2026. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and, in a bull case scenario, $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
It’s no secret that for the past several years, Tesla’s vehicle delivery numbers have been the main focus of investors and analysts have looked at them as an indicator of company health to a certain extent. The problem with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing more on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus project, AI development, and Cybercab.
While vehicle deliveries still hold importance, it is more crucial to note that Tesla’s overall environment as a business relies on much more than just how many cars are purchased. That metric, to a certain extent, is fading in importance in the grand scheme of things, but it will never totally disappear.
Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
