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SpaceX, Polaris reveal plans to launch private astronauts higher than ever before
SpaceX and Inspiration4 creator Jared Isaacman have announced the Polaris Program, an initiative designed to carry the torch forward from Inspiration4 with even more ambitious private astronaut launches.
In September 2021, four astronauts became the first all-private crew to launch into orbit on a mission known as Inspiration4. First and foremost, I4’s goal was to uplift St. Jude’s Children’s Hospital and raise money for the fight against childhood cancer. It undeniably succeeded in that regard, raising almost a quarter of a billion dollars – about half of which came from public donations. The mission also catapulted SpaceX into the spotlight and appeared to mark the very beginning of the company’s private human spaceflight ambitions.
Combined with a separate program from Axiom Space, which has already booked four fully private astronaut missions to the International Space Station (ISS), the creation of the Polaris Program appears to confirm as much.
SpaceX now has six private Crew Dragon launches scheduled within the next few years. Polaris adds at least two missions, beginning as early as Q4 2022. Known as Polaris Dawn, the mission will be Crew Dragon’s second free-flyer mission after Inspiration4, meaning that the spacecraft will fly on its own for the full five-day duration. That gives SpaceX and the Polaris team far more freedom, freedom that they plan to take advantage of.
SpaceX aspires for Polaris Dawn to be the highest Earth orbit humans have traveled to since the 1960s and the furthest humans have been from the planet since the 1970s. NASA’s Apollo missions, which sent humans to the Moon, hold the all-time record, which Polaris Dawn will barely scratch the surface of. But in Earth orbit, the record – 1368 kilometers (850 mi) – was set by Gemini XI in September 1966.
With a drone ship landing for the booster, Falcon 9 is officially capable of launching around 12 metric tons (26,000 lb) to a circular 1400 km (870 mi) orbit. For unknown reasons, SpaceX and NASA have never acknowledged Crew Dragon’s mass at liftoff, but the first uncrewed vehicle weighed around 12 tons when it docked with the ISS. As such, it’s likely that Crew Dragon weighs at least 13 tons with a full crew of four astronauts. It’s possible that SpaceX can reduce Dragon’s mass or eke out more performance from Falcon 9 with a more aggressive booster landing further downrange, allowing the Polaris Dawn crew to narrowly beat the Gemini XI record.
If SpaceX went as far as expending a well-worn Falcon 9 booster for the mission, it’s likely that the mission could double or even triple the altitude record. If, like with Gemini XI, SpaceX launched Crew Dragon into an elliptical orbit, it could likely go even higher and easily beat the Gemini record while still recovering Falcon 9’s first stage.
Beyond the aspirational record-breaking altitude, Polaris Dawn will also debut SpaceX’s custom-built EVA (extra-vehicular activity) spacesuits, which are described as an overall upgrade to and replacement for the intra-vehicular (IVA) suits that already routinely protect NASA and private Dragon astronauts. The Polaris announcement is the first time SpaceX has publicly confirmed that it’s developing its own EVA suit. If it happens as planned, Polaris Dawn will mark the first private/commercial EVA in the history of spaceflight.
Finally, Polaris has plans for not one but three private astronaut launches. The second mission will follow in the footsteps of Polaris Dawn – likely with another Crew Dragon flight, though SpaceX and Polaris haven’t settled on a choice yet. The third mission, however, aims to be the first crewed launch of SpaceX’s next-generation Starship rocket and an essential pathfinder for DearMoon, a separate Starship launch contract that aims to send a crew of artists around the Moon as early as 2023.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Elon Musk recently reiterated one of the most ambitious forecasts for Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, stating it could become the first real-world example of a Von Neumann machine. He also noted once more that Optimus would be Tesla’s biggest product.
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Optimus as a von Neumann machine
In response to a post on X that pondered on sci-fi timelines becoming real, Musk wrote that “Optimus will be the first Von Neumann machine, capable of building civilization by itself on any viable planet.” In a separate post, Musk wrote that Optimus will be Tesla’s “biggest product ever,” a phrase he has used in the past to describe the humanoid robot’s importance to the electric vehicle maker.
A Von Neumann machine is a class of theoretical self-replicating systems originally proposed in the mid-20th century by the mathematician John von Neumann. In his concept, von Neumann described machines that could travel to other worlds, use local materials to create copies of themselves, and carry out large-scale tasks without outside intervention.
Elon Musk’s broader plans
Considering Musk’s comments, it appears that Optimus would eventually be capable of performing complex work autonomously in environments beyond Earth. If Optimus could achieve such a feat, it could very well unlock humanity’s capability to explore locations beyond Earth. The idea of space exploration becomes more than feasible.
Elon Musk has discussed space-based AI compute, large-scale robotic production, and the role of SpaceX’s Starship in transporting hardware and materials to other planets. While Musk did not detail how Optimus would fit with SpaceX’s exploration activities, his Von Neumann machine comments suggest he is looking at Tesla’s robotics as part of a potential interplanetary ecosystem.
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Tesla China January wholesale sales rise 9% year-on-year
Tesla reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 China-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association.
Tesla China reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 Giga Shanghai-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). The figure includes both domestic sales and exports from Gigafactory Shanghai.
The total represented a 9.32% increase from January last year but a 28.86% decline from December’s 97,171 units.
China EV market trends
The CPCA estimated that China’s passenger new energy vehicle wholesale volume reached about 900,000 units in January, up 1% year-on-year but down 42% from December. Demand has been pressured by the start-of-year slow season, a 5% additional purchase tax cost, and uncertainty around the transition of vehicle trade-in subsidies, as noted in a report from CNEV Post.
Market leader BYD sold 210,051 NEVs in January, down 30.11% year-on-year and 50.04% month-on-month, as per data released on February 1. Tesla China’s year-over-year growth then is quite interesting, as the company’s vehicles seem to be selling very well despite headwinds in the market.
Tesla China’s strategies
To counter weaker seasonal demand, Tesla China launched a low-interest financing program on January 6, offering up to seven-year terms on select produced vehicles. The move marked the first time an automaker offered financing of that length in the Chinese market.
Several rivals, including Xiaomi, Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO, later introduced similar incentives. Tesla China then further increased promotions on January 26 by reinstating insurance subsidies for the Model 3 sedan. The CPCA is expected to release Tesla’s China retail sales and export breakdown later this month.
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Tesla’s Apple CarPlay ambitions are not dead, they’re still in the works
For what it’s worth, as a Tesla owner, I don’t particularly see the need for CarPlay, as I have found the in-car system that the company has developed to be superior. However, many people are in love with CarPlay simply because, when it’s in a car that is capable, it is really great.
Tesla’s Apple CarPlay ambitions appeared to be dead in the water after a large amount of speculation late last year that the company would add the user interface seemed to cool down after several weeks of reports.
However, it appears that CarPlay might make its way to Tesla vehicles after all, as a recent report seems to indicate that it is still being worked on by software teams for the company.
The real question is whether it is truly needed or if it is just a want by so many owners that Tesla is listening and deciding to proceed with its development.
Back in November, Bloomberg reported that Tesla was in the process of testing Apple CarPlay within its vehicles, which was a major development considering the company had resisted adopting UIs outside of its own for many years.
Nearly one-third of car buyers considered the lack of CarPlay as a deal-breaker when buying their cars, a study from McKinsey & Co. outlined. This could be a driving decision in Tesla’s inability to abandon the development of CarPlay in its vehicles, especially as it lost a major advantage that appealed to consumers last year: the $7,500 EV tax credit.
Tesla owners propose interesting theory about Apple CarPlay and EV tax credit
Although we saw little to no movement on it since the November speculation, Tesla is now reportedly in the process of still developing the user interface. Mark Gurman, a Bloomberg writer with a weekly newsletter, stated that CarPlay is “still in the works” at Tesla and that more concrete information will be available “soon” regarding its development.
While Tesla already has a very capable and widely accepted user interface, CarPlay would still be an advantage, considering many people have used it in their vehicles for years. Just like smartphones, many people get comfortable with an operating system or style and are resistant to using a new one. This could be a big reason for Tesla attempting to get it in their own cars.
Tesla gets updated “Apple CarPlay” hack that can work on new models
For what it’s worth, as a Tesla owner, I don’t particularly see the need for CarPlay, as I have found the in-car system that the company has developed to be superior. However, many people are in love with CarPlay simply because, when it’s in a car that is capable, it is really great.
It holds one distinct advantage over Tesla’s UI in my opinion, and that’s the ability to read and respond to text messages, which is something that is available within a Tesla, but is not as user-friendly.
With that being said, I would still give CarPlay a shot in my Tesla. I didn’t particularly enjoy it in my Bronco Sport, but that was because Ford’s software was a bit laggy with it. If it were as smooth as Tesla’s UI, which I think it would be, it could be a really great addition to the vehicle.
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
Tesla China January wholesale sales rise 9% year-on-year
